On Ordinal Utility,Cardinal Utility and Random Utility

Though the Random Utility Model (RUM) was conceived entirely in terms of ordinal utility, the apparatus through which it is widely practised exhibits properties of cardinal utility. The adoption of cardinal utility as a working operation of ordinal is perfectly valid, provided interpretations drawn from that operation remain faithful to ordinal utility. The article considers whether the latter requirement holds true for several measurements commonly derived from RUM. In particular it is found that measurements of consumer surplus change may depart from ordinal utility, and exploit the cardinality inherent in the practical apparatus.      

Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities

This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).     

On Elements of Chance

One aspect of the utility of gambling may evidence itself in failures of idempotence, i.e., when all chance outcomes give rise to the same consequence the `gamble' may not be indifferent to its common consequence. Under the assumption of segregation, such gambles can be expressed as the joint receipt of the common consequence and what we call `an element of chance', namely, the same gamble with the common consequence replaced by the status quo. Generalizing, any gamble is indifferent to the joint receipt of its element of chance and a certain consequence, which is called the `kernel equivalent' of the gamble. Under idempotence, the kernel equivalent equals the certainty equivalent. Conditions are reported (Theorem 4) that are sufficient for the kernel equivalents to have the kind of utility representation first discussed by Luce and Fishburn (1991), including being idempotent. This utility representation of the kernel equivalents together with the derived form of utility over joint receipts yields a utility representation of the original structure. Possible forms for the utility of an element of chance are developed.     

Semicontinuous Representability of Homothetic Interval Orders by Means of Two Homogeneous Functionals

It is well known that interval orders are particularly interesting in decision theory, since they are reflexive, complete and nontransitive binary relations which may be fully represented by means of two real-valued functions. In this paper, we discuss the existence of a pair of nonnegative, positively homogeneous and semicontinuous real-valued functionals representing an interval order on a real cone in a topological vector space. We recover as a particular case a result concerning the existence of a nonnegative, positively homogeneous and continuous utility functional for a complete preorder on a real cone in a topological vector space.     

Reconciliation with the Utility of Chance by Elaborated Outcomes Destroys the Axiomatic Basis of Expected Utility Theory

Expected utility theory does not directly deal with the utility of chance. It has been suggested in the literature (Samuelson, 1952, Markowitz, 1959) that this can be remedied by an approach which explicitly models the emotional consequences which give rise to the utility of chance. We refer to this as the elaborated outcomes approach. It is argued that the elaborated outcomes approach destroys the possibility of deriving a representation theorem based on the usual axioms of expected utility theory. This is shown with the help of an example due to Markowitz. It turns out that the space of conceivable lotteries over elaborated outcomes is too narrow to permit the application of the axioms. Moreover it is shown that a representation theorem does not hold for the example.     

Disappointment without prior expectation: a unifying perspective on decision under risk

The central idea of Disappointment theory is that an individual forms an expectation about a risky alternative, and may experience disappointment if the outcome eventually obtained falls short of the expectation. We abandon the hypothesis of a well-defined prior expectation: disappointment feelings may arise from comparing the outcome received with anyof the gamble’s outcomes that the individual failed to get. This leads to a new, general form of Disappointment model. It encompasses Rank Dependent Utility with an explicit one-parameter probability transformation, and Risk-Value models with a generic risk measure including Variance, providing a unifying behavioral foundation for these models. JEL Classification D80 . D81     

Expected utility from additive utility on semigroups

In the present paper we study the framework of additive utility theory, obtaining new results derived from a concurrence of algebraic and topological techniques. Such techniques lean on the concept of a connected topological totally ordered semigroup. We achieve a general result concerning the existence of continuous and additive utility functions on completely preordered sets endowed with a binary operation ``+', not necessarily being commutative or associative. In the final part of the paper we get some applications to expected utility theory, and a representation theorem for a class of complete preorders on a quite general family of real mixture spaces.     

Some quantitative concepts of value and utility from a utilitarian point of view

This paper clarifies and interprets some basic quantitative concepts of value, utility and utility function from a utilitarian point of view. First, I discuss the question as to whether value is objective or subjective. I hold that value is subjective and statistical in nature (although from the various subjective values of a certain object a norm can usually be obtained). Second, I emphasize the distinction between use value and exchange value in relation to utility. Third, I propose a law of diminishing incremental interest, which refers to the incremental (marginal) utility of money. Fourth, I identify the utility of money with the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. Fifth, I question the necessity of the usual normalization of utility functions and the restricted linear transformation (and the consequent concept of strategic equivalence). Sixth, I discuss in detail the terminal values and utilities of a utility function from a philosophical rather than mathematical point of view, particularly the boundedness of a utility function and the magnitudes of V ₀ and U ₀. Finally, I conclude that, in order to be able to have interpersonal comparisons of utility, utility should have the same dimension as value rather than no dimension, and the normalization problem should be reconsidered in the light of terminal values and utilities.     

A Note on the Portfolio Selection Problem

In this note we provide new results of interest in the portfolio choice problem when the risky opportunities are correlated: for a general vector (X₁, X₂,..., X_n) of risky opportunities we give new conditions for stochastic comparison among different portfolios choices and new necessary and sufficient conditions to characterize the portfolio which gives the maximal expected utility.     

Uncertainty with Partial Information on the Possibility of the Events

The Choquet expected utility model deals with nonadditive probabilities (or capacities). Their dependence on the information the decision-maker has about the possibility of the events is taken into account. Two kinds of information are examined: interval information (for instance, the percentage of white balls in an urn is between 60% and 100%) and comparative information (for instance, the information that there are more white balls than black ones). Some implications are shown with regard to the core of the capacity and to two additive measures which can be derived from capacities: the Shapley value and the nucleolus. Interval information bounds prove to be satisfied by all probabilities in the core, but they are not necessarily satisfied by the nucleolus (when the core is empty) and the Shapley value. We must introduce the constrained nucleolus in order for these bounds to be satisfied, while the Shapley value does not seem to be adjustable. On the contrary, comparative information inequalities prove to be not necessarily satisfied by all probabilities in the core and we must introduce the constrained core in order for these inequalities be satisfied. However, both the nucleolus and the Shapley value satisfy the comparative information inequalities, and the Shapley value does it more strictly than the nucleolus. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

汉语语序灵活性的语用考察

汉语的语序既有规约性,又有灵活性,而且体现在语义、语法、语用三个平面中。从语用平面对汉语语序的灵活性进行考察,从可以语境、指示词语、会话含义、预设、言语行为和会话结构六个方面。     

制度经济学视角下的规则意识探析

制度安排是经济增长的关键因素,但必须依靠人们的自觉遵守才能发挥其效用。规则意识就是规则的意识化,在认同和接受规则的基础上意识主体形成一种自觉遵守规则的行为。规则意识的内涵首先是指关于规则的知识,其次是自觉遵守规则的愿望,再次外化为遵守规则的习惯。规则意识的经济功能主要表现在它是制度功能实现的基础、减少制度执行成本与有利于制度本义的准确理解。规则意识的形成过程是规则通过人们的心理活动内化为意识的过程,外在表现为自我实施的行为。在我国社会转型与体制转轨时期,培养和增强社会公众规则意识、发挥制度效用,要营造良好的制度环境,转变制度变迁方式,逐步扩大制度诱致性变迁的范围。     

Rational behaviour: A comparison between the theory stemming from de Finetti's work and some other leading theories

We present some interesting features of de Finetti's decision theory; then we extended the theory. The extended theory has a normative character and is of the expected utility kind, but it is also very adaptable. By comparing it with some leading theories, we find that our theory is compatible with consideration of the whole probability distribution — it can even accommodate Allais' paradox -, while it is not generally compatible with probability weighting. We are mainly interested in the normative point of view.     

Adoption from care in Northern Ireland: problems in the process

ABSTRACT This is a study of the processes for freeing children for adoption in Northern Ireland. The focus was the time taken from admission to care to adoption order. The findings confirmed that the process is dogged by delay at each stage. In total the average time from the child becoming looked after to the granting of an adoption order was 4.5 years. Most of the time taken was in the stages for which social services had lead responsibility, principally the decision to pursue adoption as the plan for a child. The children were very young when admitted to care – average age 1 year 7 months. Most were admitted to care because they were being neglected. Their parents were well known to social services and had multiple problems. Most parents unsuccessfully contested the social services’ application and this contributed much to the delay. Their former foster parents adopted almost half of the children and these children tended to be placed more quickly with their adopters than those placed with adopters who were not their foster parents prior to the adoption process.     

Transferring from the poor to the rich: Examining regressive redistribution in Chinese social insurance programmes

Social insurance promotes progressive redistribution through risk pooling and cross‐subsidy. However, in China, risks and protection are mismatched, with benefits and protection accruing to the privileged while high‐risk groups are inadequately protected. This article reports on a study of the sources of regressive redistribution in Chinese pension, health and unemployment insurance programmes, and discusses the possible cause of this redistribution paradox. It argues that the government has adopted different strategies for welfare reform towards different socioeconomic groups. For the core groups, such as public employees, reform has been characterised by replacing old programmes with new (i.e., a replacement strategy). For marginal groups, the government has handed off its responsibilities to individuals and the market (a retrenchment strategy). This political pecking order of welfare reform is the cause of distorted distributional outcomes. As social policy programmes continue to spread in developing countries, China's case illustrates that they may reinforce existing disparities rather than realise progressive redistribution, risk management and social inclusion.     

新兴国家崛起与构建国际经济新秩序——以中国的路径选择为视角

我国学界历来把发展中国家建立国际经济新秩序的斗争主要界定为诉求“特殊与差别待遇”之举。然而,晚近新兴国家不断崛起,与发达国家间经济实力差距趋于缩小。于是,中国等新兴国家开始向发达国家主张“平等与无差别待遇”。此等新路径的开辟,可能意味着正在推动继20世纪80年代初之后一度潮落的发展中国家建立国际经济新秩序的斗争将再掀高潮。有鉴于此,学界在继续研究传统路径的同时,应更加关注此等新路径的开辟对和平发展之中国的意义,从而完整、准确地把握中国参与重构更加公正之国际经济秩序斗争的基本态势。     

上古先秦之"乐"与戏曲元素

本文从宫廷文化的角度讨论自上古至先秦这一时期的"乐"的诸形态与戏曲的关系。"乐"有两大义项:乐舞与娱乐。这两者共同构成一个"乐"的文化生态,戏曲的舞台形态就在这个文化生态中产生它的雏形。     

经典之争:丧服制度与法律秩序——以汉唐之际的母杀父案为例

在发生母杀父的人伦惨剧时,子女应当如何作为是困扰中国传统法律的难题。中国传统士大夫就这一问题的论争主要围绕着对《丧服》等经典的诠释展开。在“继母杀父”的案件中,孔季彦由“绝生母”推导出“绝继母”,而汉武帝从“继母如母”的经义本身得出继母身份的存废依据,魏晋丧服学家则进一步提出继母可能因失去配父之义而丧失母名,然亲生母子关系却不会断绝的观点。在“亲母杀父”的立法之争中,窦瑗立足于父系伦理,强调“父尊母卑”,要求人子“为父绝母”,控告母亲;封君义则站在孝子的服制立场上,认为子女对于父母的情感是相同的,理应保持缄默。后一观点的阶段性胜利使中国传统法有关母子关系的规定在父系家族伦理秩序中呈现出别样的面貌。