Principal curves revisited

A principal curve (Hastie and Stuetzle, 1989) is a smooth curve passing through the middle of a distribution or data cloud, and is a generalization of linear principal components. We give an alternative definition of a principal curve, based on a mixture model. Estimation is carried out through an EM algorithm. Some comparisons are made to the Hastie-Stuetzle definition.     

Semiparametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function under competing risks and left-truncated sampling

In this article, we propose semiparametric methods to estimate the cumulative incidence function of two dependent competing risks for left-truncated and right-censored data. The proposed method is based on work by Huang and Wang (1995). We extend previous model by allowing for a general parametric truncation distribution and a third competing risk before recruitment. Based on work by Vardi (1989), several iterative algorithms are proposed to obtain the semiparametric estimates of cumulative incidence functions. The asymptotic properties of the semiparametric estimators are derived. Simulation results show that a semiparametric approach assuming the parametric truncation distribution is correctly specified produces estimates with smaller mean squared error than those obtained in a fully nonparametric model.     

Packages for Estimating Finite Mixtures: A Review

We review five packages for estimating finite mixtures, BINOMIX, C.A. MAN, MIX, and the maximum likelihood routines of BMDP and STATA. The focus of the review is on numerical issues rather than matters such as user interface because the success or failure of an algorithm to yield a mixture model is likely to be the most important issue facing a researcher. The problem of suitable initial values is discussed throughout.     

An EM and a Stochastic Version of the EM Algorithm for Nonparametric Hidden Semi-Markov Models

The Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) were introduced to overcome the constraint of a geometric sojourn time distribution for the different hidden states in the classical hidden Markov models. Several variations of HSMMs were proposed that model the sojourn times by a parametric or a nonparametric family of distributions. In this article, we concentrate our interest on the nonparametric case where the duration distributions are attached to transitions and not to states as in most of the published papers in HSMMs. Therefore, it is worth noticing that here we treat the underlying hidden semi-Markov chain in its general probabilistic structure. In that case, Barbu and Limnios (2008 Barbu , V. , Limnios , N. ( 2008 ). Semi-Markov Chains and Hidden Semi-Markov Models Toward Applications: Their Use in Reliability and DNA Analysis . New York : Springer . [Google Scholar]) proposed an Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to estimate the semi-Markov kernel and the emission probabilities that characterize the dynamics of the model. In this article, we consider an improved version of Barbu and Limnios' EM algorithm which is faster than the original one. Moreover, we propose a stochastic version of the EM algorithm that achieves comparable estimates with the EM algorithm in less execution time. Some numerical examples are provided which illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed algorithms.     

Sensitivity Coefficient in Principal Component Analysis: Robust Case

In the classical principal component analysis (PCA), the empirical influence function for the sensitivity coefficient ρ is used to detect influential observations on the subspace spanned by the dominants principal components. In this article, we derive the influence function of ρ in the case where the reweighted minimum covariance determinant (MCD¹) is used as estimator of multivariate location and scatter. Our aim is to confirm the reliability in terms of robustness of the MCD¹ via the approach based on the influence function of the sensitivity coefficient.     

主成分与因子分析中指标同趋势化方法探讨

样本主成分和样本因子分析法已成为一种最主要的综合评价方法之一,指标变量的同趋势化是运用该方法的重要步骤。文章总结了主成分与因子分析中指标同趋势化的具体方法,论述了这些方法对综合评价的影响,并指出了这些方法的适用条件。     

Semiparametric mixture models and repeated measures: the multinomial cut point model

Summary.  Suppose that we have m repeated measures on each subject, and we model the observation vectors with a finite mixture model.  We further assume that the repeated measures are conditionally independent. We present methods to estimate the shape of the component distributions along with various features of the component distributions such as the medians, means and variances. We make no distributional assumptions on the components; indeed, we allow different shapes for different components.     

主成分分析在我国区域经济梯度评价中的应用

本文利用数据统计和SPSS计算机软件进行主成分分析,对我国30个省份及地区的经济梯度状况进行评分、划类和排序,比较客观地阐述了我国区域经济大致的发展状况和未来发展前景,并提出了相关的政策建议,以期为各地经济的健康发展提供更好的思路。     

Likelihood ratio tests based on subglobal optimization: A power comparison in exponential mixture models

The paper compares several versions of the likelihood ratio test for exponential homogeneity against mixtures of two exponentials. They are based on different implementations of the likelihood maximization algorithm. We show that global maximization of the likelihood is not appropriate to obtain a good power of the LR test. A simple starting strategy for the EM algorithm, which under the null hypothesis often fails to find the global maximum, results in a rather powerful test. On the other hand, a multiple starting strategy that comes close to global maximization under both the null and the alternative hypotheses leads to inferior power.     

Inference and optimal censoring schemes for progressively censored Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

The aim of this paper is twofold. First we discuss the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters of a two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution when the data are progressively Type-II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are obtained using the EM algorithm by exploiting the property that the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution can be expressed as an equal mixture of an inverse Gaussian distribution and its reciprocal. From the proposed EM algorithm, the observed information matrix can be obtained quite easily, which can be used to construct the asymptotic confidence intervals. We perform the analysis of two real and one simulated data sets for illustrative purposes, and the performances are quite satisfactory. We further propose the use of different criteria to compare two different sampling schemes, and then find the optimal sampling scheme for a given criterion. It is observed that finding the optimal censoring scheme is a discrete optimization problem, and it is quite a computer intensive process. We examine one sub-optimal censoring scheme by restricting the choice of censoring schemes to one-step censoring schemes as suggested by Balakrishnan (2007), which can be obtained quite easily. We compare the performances of the sub-optimal censoring schemes with the optimal ones, and observe that the loss of information is quite insignificant.     

Fitting mixtures of linear regressions

In most applications, the parameters of a mixture of linear regression models are estimated by maximum likelihood using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. In this article, we propose the comparison of three algorithms to compute maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of these models: the EM algorithm, the classification EM algorithm and the stochastic EM algorithm. The comparison of the three procedures was done through a simulation study of the performance (computational effort, statistical properties of estimators and goodness of fit) of these approaches on simulated data sets.

Simulation results show that the choice of the approach depends essentially on the configuration of the true regression lines and the initialization of the algorithms.     

Recovering extra-binomial variation

A hierarchical logit-normal model for analysis of binary data with extra-binomial variation is examined. A method of approximate maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is proposed. The method uses the EM algorithm and approximations to facilitate its implementation are derived. Approximate standard errors of the estimates are provided and a numerical example is used to illustrate the method.     

Bias correction in logistic regression with missing categorical covariates

Logistic regression plays an important role in many fields. In practice, we often encounter missing covariates in different applied sectors, particularly in biomedical sciences. Ibrahim (1990) proposed a method to handle missing covariates in generalized linear model (GLM) setup. It is well known that logistic regression estimates using small or medium sized missing data are biased. Considering the missing data that are missing at random, in this paper we have reduced the bias by two methods; first we have derived a closed form bias expression using Cox and Snell (1968), and second we have used likelihood based modification similar to Firth (1993). Here we have analytically shown that the Firth type likelihood modification in Ibrahim led to the second order bias reduction. The proposed methods are simple to apply on an existing method, need no analytical work, with the exception of a little change in the optimization function. We have carried out extensive simulation studies comparing the methods, and our simulation results are also supported by a real world data.     

An Exponential-Family Multidimensional Scaling Mixture Methodology

A multidimensional scaling methodology (STUNMIX) for the analysis of subjects' preference/choice of stimuli that sets out to integrate the previous work in this area into a single framework, as well as to provide a variety of new options and models, is presented. Locations of the stimuli and the ideal points of derived segments of subjects on latent dimensions are estimated simultaneously. The methodology is formulated in the framework of the exponential family of distributions, whereby a wide range of different data types can be analyzed. Possible reparameterizations of stimulus coordinates by stimulus characteristics, as well as of probabilities of segment membership by subject background variables, are permitted. The models are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework. The performance of the models is demonstrated on synthetic data, and robustness is investigated. An empirical application is provided, concerning intentions to buy portable telephones.     

ML estimation for factor analysis: EM or non-EM?

To obtain maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in factor analysis (FA), we propose in this paper a novel and fast conditional maximization (CM) algorithm, which has quadratic and monotone convergence, consisting of a sequence of CM log-likelihood (CML) steps. The main contribution of this algorithm is that the closed form expression for the parameter to be updated in each step can be obtained explicitly, without resorting to any numerical optimization methods. In addition, a new ECME algorithm similar to Liu’s (Biometrika 81, 633–648, 1994) one is obtained as a by-product, which turns out to be very close to the simple iteration algorithm proposed by Lawley (Proc. R. Soc. Edinb. 60, 64–82, 1940) but our algorithm is guaranteed to increase log-likelihood at every iteration and hence to converge. Both algorithms inherit the simplicity and stability of EM but their convergence behaviors are much different as revealed in our extensive simulations: (1) In most situations, ECME and EM perform similarly; (2) CM outperforms EM and ECME substantially in all situations, no matter assessed by the CPU time or the number of iterations. Especially for the case close to the well known Heywood case, it accelerates EM by factors of around 100 or more. Also, CM is much more insensitive to the choice of starting values than EM and ECME.     

Gamma lifetimes and associated inference for interval-censored cure rate model with COM–Poisson competing cause

In this article, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the wider family of Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (COM–Poisson) distribution to model the number of competing causes. Assuming the type of the data to be interval censored, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to determine the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters. A profile likelihood approach within the EM framework is proposed to estimate the COM–Poisson shape parameter. An extensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed EM algorithm. Model selection within the wider class of COM–Poisson distribution is carried out using likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria. A study to demonstrate the effect of model mis-specification is also carried out. Finally, the proposed estimation method is applied to a data on smoking cessation and a detailed analysis of the obtained results is presented.     

Estimation of a Discriminant Function from a Mixture of Two Burr Type III Distributions

In this article, we propose the finite mixture of two Burr Type-III distributions (MTBIIID). First, we formulate the proposed model with some properties and prove the identifiability property. Next, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the unknown parameters of MTBIIID under classified and unclassified observations. Also, we estimate the nonlinear discriminant function of the underlying model. In addition, we calculate the total probabilities of misclassification as well as the percentage bias. Further, we investigate the performance of the all results through series of the simulation experiments by the means of the relative efficiencies.