关于航空地面作业中同工种服务人员的安排问题

航空地面作业管理是关于机场各种地面服务设备的安排调度,以保证航班飞机的正常运行.本文考虑了其中一类和飞机配餐清扫问题有关的人员安排问题,在一定的假设之下,该问题的模型可以转化为一种网络流问题.基于实际的需要,本文考虑了作业高峰时间的确定模型,基于不同的优化目标,同时针对管理中的一些要求,我们也建立相应的研究模型.     

特殊时期地铁二级分流-联防安检优化模型

恐怖分子经常将安检体系相对薄弱、人流相对密集的地铁站作为攻击的首要目标之一。本文从地铁安检流程优化和跨部门联防协作的角度出发，提出了特殊时期地铁二级分流-联防安检优化模型。结果表明，在特殊时期，通过引入身份证信息库和指纹-人脸识别系统，对乘客进行绿、橙、红三色通道分流安检，能够明显提升普通乘客的社会福利水平；当X光检测系统的准确率越低，被分流到橙色通道乘客比例越大，橙色通道中潜在袭击者比例越高时，社会福利增益越大，暴恐概率越小；在案潜逃人员识别率越高，社会福利增益越大。多部门协防反恐正向反馈越积极，进而可以刺激安防部门优化身份识别系统，直到社会福利增益为零的最优状态。     

模糊环境下边境反恐交通网络设计模型及应用

“一带一路”战略加深了我国与邻国的交流，也为境外恐怖分子潜入提供可乘之机。政府可通过在交通网络中有效地分配阻断(或安检)资源，来提前识别和拦截正在潜入的恐怖分子。特别地，考虑各路段阻断资源需求、袭击后果为模糊不确定的情形，结合政府与恐怖分子的互动行为构建双层规划模型，并设计一类改进遗传算法求解。最后，结合南疆交通网络进行仿真分析，结果发现：通过边境反恐交通网络设计可以降低境内恐袭风险，恐怖分子偏好袭击边境口岸城市和境内重要城市，政府应优先针对口岸城市周围路段实施强化安检，还须重视安检资源投入的“边际效用递减规律”，以及安检资源和安检能力间的“替代关系”，合理优化两者比例，提高反恐效率。     

考虑定性指标及误判损失的企业违约判别神经网络模型

识别和度量企业的违约风险是银行风险管理中很重要的一项工作.目前企业违约判别模型离实际应用还具有一定差距,表现在:1)模型所使用的样本基本都是配对模式,不能代表整体样本;2)很少直接引入影响违约的定性指标,如行业,地区和规模;3)没有考虑到误判损失的非对称性.针对上述问题,本文应用前向BP网络针对某国有商业银行的2003年全部有效的短期贷款企业的财务数据,引入了定性指标,采用全样本进行训练,最后确定使误判损失最小的切割点,这样就得到优化的神经网络模型.     

基于鲁棒优化的人力资源规划模型研究

本文分析了企业人力资源流动问题的特点,考虑到因企业内外部环境带来的不确定性因素,建立了基于鲁棒优化的人力资源规划模型,从而在人员流动确定性模型的基础上,分析了当其中某些因素产生不确定性的波动时,人员流动如何变化,以求更加贴近实际问题,使研究结果更具有实际参考价值.     

市场培养期内机场长途巴士时刻表动态优化

为应对日益激烈的竞争,一部分民航机场增加长途巴士服务以强化竞争力,长途巴士开行后机场市场份额逐渐上升的过程通常叫做市场培育期,缩短培育期是强化长途巴士效率与效果的关键.文章站在运营者的角度,以培育期最短、机场市场份额增幅最大、运营成本最低为多重目标,动态优化培育期内机场长途巴士的时刻表,得到培育期内各时点的巴士发车时刻表与机场市场份额的增长曲线.优化模型刻画了乘客机场选择习惯的变化与发车时刻表之间的互动关系,以及前后时间点上机场市场份额的动态联系.计算结果显示,动态时刻表可缩短机场长途巴士的市场培育期,迅速增加机场的市场份额.     

水资源层次定价模型的建立

在对水资源定价研究分析和对水资源用户分层基础上,确定了水资源层次定价模型需要达到的多层目标,并依次建立起了中国水资源层次定价优化模型,探讨了对优化方程有关参数的确定方法,并分析了优化解及其的政策效应.最后对层次定价模型的优缺点和可扩展的方向进行了分析.     

信息不完全确定的区域产品模糊区间聚类方法

区域产品分类与选择是区域经济发展中最重要和最基础的工作.在产品选择与分类时,需要确定指标权系数和分类阈值等参数,这在实际应用中是比较困难的.针对这种情况,提出了一种信息不完全确定的区域产品模糊区间聚类方法.该方法构建了指标权系数信息不完全确定的最优模糊区间聚类模型,利用遗传算法和改进的FCM算法联合求解所得优化模型,得到指标权系数、最优聚类中心和最优划分,进而确定各产品所属类别.最后将该方法应用于某区域的产品分类和主导产品的确定中,实例计算说明该方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于贝叶斯随机规划方法的养老保险基金投资策略研究

结合中国养老保险基金投资现状,利用随机规划建立中国养老基金投资策略模型,依据Minnesota法则改进贝叶斯向量自回归参数分布的确定方法.根据改进的贝叶斯向量自回归模型生成资本市场未来收益情景,得到养老基金最优投资策略并给出模拟计算具体步骤.最后结合历史数据进行模拟分析,结果表明模型能够根据实际情况优化资产配置.     

基于胜任力的人寿保险营销人员培训探讨

本丈在对300名人寿保险营销人员调查研究基础上,确定了人寿保险营销人员的胜任力因素.基于此胜任力模型进行了人寿保险营销人员的培训需求分析,并提出了基于胜任力的培训方法.     

基于机场繁忙程度的航班延误波及分析

航班延误是全球航空业面临的一大难题。航班运行过程中,对于执行航班环任务的飞机,机场繁忙程度直接影响飞机过站时间长短,进而影响航班离港延误程度。文中构建到港延误对离港延误的波及贝叶斯网络预测模型时,加入机场繁忙程度这一因素,以机场飞机起降架次作为刻画该因素的指标,并通过贝叶斯网络结构学习得到机场繁忙程度的影响关系图。10次10折交叉验证的结果表明,与直接用到港延误预测离港延误的模型相比,加入机场繁忙程度因素的模型能够更准确地预估航班延误波及情况。     

Agency Problems and Airport Security: Quantitative and Qualitative Evidence on the Impact of Security Training

We analyze the issue of agency costs in aviation security by combining results from a quantitative economic model with a qualitative study based on semi‐structured interviews. Our model extends previous principal‐agent models by combining the traditional fixed and varying monetary responses to physical and cognitive effort with nonmonetary welfare and potentially transferable value of employees' own human capital. To provide empirical evidence for the tradeoffs identified in the quantitative model, we have undertaken an extensive interview process with regulators, airport managers, security personnel, and those tasked with training security personnel from an airport operating in a relatively high‐risk state, Turkey. Our results indicate that the effectiveness of additional training depends on the mix of “transferable skills” and “emotional” buy‐in of the security agents. Principals need to identify on which side of a critical tipping point their agents are to ensure that additional training, with attached expectations of the burden of work, aligns the incentives of employees with the principals' own objectives.     

AbSRiM: An Agent‐Based Security Risk Management Approach for Airport Operations

Security risk management is essential for ensuring effective airport operations. This article introduces AbSRiM, a novel agent‐based modeling and simulation approach to perform security risk management for airport operations that uses formal sociotechnical models that include temporal and spatial aspects. The approach contains four main steps: scope selection, agent‐based model definition, risk assessment, and risk mitigation. The approach is based on traditional security risk management methodologies, but uses agent‐based modeling and Monte Carlo simulation at its core. Agent‐based modeling is used to model threat scenarios, and Monte Carlo simulations are then performed with this model to estimate security risks. The use of the AbSRiM approach is demonstrated with an illustrative case study. This case study includes a threat scenario in which an adversary attacks an airport terminal with an improvised explosive device. The approach provides a promising way to include important elements, such as human aspects and spatiotemporal aspects, in the assessment of risk. More research is still needed to better identify the strengths and weaknesses of the AbSRiM approach in different case studies, but results demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and its potential.     

Securing Passenger Aircraft from the Threat of Man‐Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS)

In this article, we develop a model for the expected maximum hit probability of an attack on a commercial aircraft using MANPADS, as a function of the (random) location of the attacker. We also explore the sensitivity of the expected maximum hit probability to the parameters of the model, including both attacker parameters (such as weapon characteristics) and defender parameters (such as the size of the secure region around the airport). We conclude that having a large secure region around an airport offers some protection against MANPADS, and that installing onboard countermeasures reduces the success probability of a MANPADS attack.     

A review on airport gate assignment problems: Single versus multi objective approaches

Assigning aircraft to gates is an important decision problem that airport professionals face every day. The solution of this problem has raised a significant research effort and many variants of this problem have been studied. In this paper, we review past work with a focus on identifying types of formulations, classifying objectives, and categorising solution methods. The review indicates that there is no standard formulation, that passenger oriented objectives are most common, and that more recent work are multi-objective. In terms of solution methods, heuristic and metaheuristic approaches are dominant which provides an opportunity to develop exact and approximate approaches both for the single and multi-objective problems.     

An Integrated Decision Methodology for Designing and Operating an Air‐Express Courier's Distribution Network*

DHL, an international air‐express courier, has been operating in Hong Kong for many years. In 1998, the new international airport located at a site considerably distant from the old location opened in Hong Kong (HK). Other airport‐related infrastructure facilities have also been developed or are being developed, resulting in major changes in transport structure as well as a shift in customer demand. In this paper a multiyear distribution network is designed for DHL(HK) using an integrated network design methodology, which consists of a macro model and a micro model. The macro model, a mixed 0–1 LP, determines in an aggregate manner the least‐cost distribution network. The micro model, a simulation, evaluates the operational viability and efficacy of the network according to its service coverage and service reliability. We also illustrate how coverage and reliability can be improved via the integrated use of the two models. Extensive discussion on relevant planning and operational issues of an air‐express courier are included. The methodology has been successfully implemented at DHL(HK). It has been used to design the network, to test strategic decisions, and to update the network.     

Obtaining the optimal fleet mix: A case study about towing tractors at airports

Planes do not have a reverse gear. Hence, they need to be towed by tractors when leaving the gate. Towing tractors differ with respect to investment as well as variable costs and plane type compatibility. We propose a model which addresses the problem of a cost minimal fleet composition to support towing service providers in their strategic investment decisions. The model takes into account a maximum lifetime, a minimum duration of use, an overhaul option and a sell option. In a case study with a major European airport (our cooperating airport) we generate a multi-period fleet investment schedule. Furthermore, we introduce a 4-step approach for demand aggregation based on flight schedule information. We analyze the impact of demand variation, flight schedule disruptions and cost structure on the optimal buy, overhaul and sell policy. The scenario analyses demonstrate the robustness of the investment schedule with respect to these factors. Ignoring the existing fleet, a green field scenario reveals saving potentials of more than 5% when applying this model.     

Strategic reactions to the abolition of duty free:: Examples from the European airport sector

The abolition of duty free and tax free sales to intra-EU passengers on June 30 1999 curtailed the opportunity for airport authorities to generate retail related income. Prior to abolition, approximately 40 per cent of all duty free sales were between European Union countries. Since the abolition, airport authorities have had to identify alternative ways in which revenue could be generated.The paper is based upon interviews conducted with key decision-makers in the European airport industry. It details the strategies pursued by the industry prior to abolition and highlights the range of initiatives undertaken by the industry since July 1999. Finally a series of conclusions are drawn as to the future of the duty free industry within Europe.     

改进固定工期大中型工程的完工成本估算

传统挣值管理框架内的完工成本估算模型,不能很好适用于工期目标固定的大中型工程。首先,在项目前锋期（t₀）,提出利用进度挣值方法（ES）估算完工工期T₂,以及对于固定工期（T₀）需要压缩的工期（ΔT=T₂-T₀）。然后,采用指数函数模拟时间-费用分阶段凸成本曲线,估算压缩工期的成本。在此基础上,结合Gompertz生长模型（GGM）估算未压缩时的完工成本,提出固定工期大中型工程的完工成本的估算模型。最后,以某机场工程子项目作为案例,分别利用传统挣值法的四种基本估算方法与改进后的挣值管理完工估算方法,对项目完工成本进行估算。横向对比结果发现,改进后的挣值管理完工估算方法具有相对较优性。本研究的成本估算模型改进了传统挣值法对完工成本估算的预测能力,对于进度为主要目标的中国大中型工程具有较强的实践指导意义。     

A Heuristic Risk Assessment Technique for Birdstrike Management at Airports

Collisions between birds and aircraft (birdstrikes) have caused the loss of at least 88 aircraft and 243 lives in world civil aviation. Conservative estimates suggest that more routine damage and delays following birdstrikes cost the industry and its insurers US$1.2-1.5 billion per year. The majority of strikes happen close to airports and most countries have regulations that require airport managers to control the birdstrike risk on their property. Birdstrike prevention has, however, lagged behind other aspects of flight safety in the development and implementation of risk assessment protocols, possibly because of the inherent difficulty in quantifying the variability in the populations and behavior of the various bird species involved. This article presents a technique that uses both national and airport-specific data to evaluate risk by creating a simple probability-times-severity matrix. It uses the frequency of strikes reported for different bird species at a given airport over the preceding five years as a measure of strike probability, and the proportion of strikes with each species that result in damage to aircraft, in the national birdstrike database, as a measure of likely severity. Action thresholds for risk levels for particular bird species are then defined, above which the airport should take action to reduce the risk further. The assessment is designed for airports where the reporting and collation of birdstrike events is reasonably consistent over time and where a bird hazard management program of some sort is already in place. This risk assessment is designed to measure risk to the airport as a business rather than risk to the traveling passenger individually. It therefore takes no account of aircraft movement rate in the calculations and is aimed at minimizing the number of damaging incidents rather than concentrating on catastrophic events. Once set up at an airport, the technique is simple to implement for nonexperts, and it allows managers to focus bird control resources on the species causing the greatest risk, hence maximizing the return on investment. This protocol is now being successfully used at major airports in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in the world.