Recent fertility decline in Ceylon

Abstract The crude birth rate for Ceylon has been falling steadily between 1960 and 1970, except for a slight interruption in 1968. The fall between 1953 and 1963 has been documented elsewhere and this paper will therefore deal with the period 1963-69.     

New survey finds fertility decline in India

A brief indication was provided of demography, fertility, and contraceptive usage and knowledge based on the recent 1992/93 Indian National Family Health Survey. The sample included 88,562 households and 89,777 ever married women aged 13-49 years in 24 states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. About 38% of household members were aged under 15 years. The sex ratio was 944 females to 100 males. 54% aged over 5 years were currently married; 10% were widowed, divorced, or separated. 43% were literate and 9% had secondary or higher education: 67% for females in cities and 34% in rural areas. Female literacy was 82% in Kerala but under 30% in Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. During 1990-92, the crude birth rate was 28.9 per 1000 population. Total fertility was 3.4 for women aged 15-49 years: 3.7 in rural and 2.7 in urban areas. 31% of parents had been sterilized. 26% desired no more children. Only 6% of women with four or more children desired another child. 99% of urban and 95% of rural respondents had knowledge of at least one modern or traditional method. Female and male sterilization were the most well-known modern methods. 47% of women had ever used contraception: 42% with a modern method and 12% with a traditional method. 41% were current users of family planning: 36% with a modern and 4% with a traditional method (45% in urban and 33% in rural areas with a modern method). The highest contraceptive use was in Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab states and Delhi (over 50%). The two most populous states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, had the lowest rates, which were under 25%; other low usage was in Assam and several small northeastern states. 75% of all female modern contraceptive use was female sterilization. 12% in urban and 3% in rural areas used a modern spacing method. Use increased with increased educational level. Rural sources of supply emphasized public facilities: sterilization and IUDs.     

Case study: fertility decline in Iran

Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planning programs in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in total fertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000. This paper focuses on Iranians’ unique experience with implementation of a national family planning program. Recognition of sensitive moral and ethical aspects of population issues resulted in successful collaboration of technical experts and religious leaders. Involvement of local health workers, women health volunteers and rural midwives led to great community participation. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFR of 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use among married women. This case study will help policy makers and researchers in Moslem countries and other developing countries with high fertility rate to consider a successful family program as a realistic concept with positive impacts on nation’s health and human development.     

The determinants of early fertility decline in Texas

This study examines the determinants of fertility control in a frontier population made up largely of German-Americans during the years from 1850 to 1910. The analysis employs a complex register of population constructed from census enumerations, civil and ecclesiastical vital registration, and tax assessment rolls. The article begins with a series of bivariate analyses with cohort of mother’s birth, religion, ethnicity, and husband’s occupation determining marital fertility. The second half of the paper presents a multivariate model of the determinants of fertility using these and other demographic characteristics as independent variables. The conclusions emphasize the importance of the overall trend toward fertility decline in the United States, as well as the role of religion and of occupational differences, in determining changes in fertility behavior in the population of Gillespie County, Texas.     

Social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline

Abstract In both developed and underdeveloped areas, many attempts have been made to alter the course of fertility through family planning intervention. Doubtless the availability of such services facilitates birth control for those who already desire to use it. Whether or not such exogenous interventions have any independent effect upon the operation of endogenous forces in the economy and society is, however, more problematical. Where fertility declines have been observed, family planning services have often been made widely available only after the decline in fertility had already set in. Nonetheless, observers have often attempted to attribute some fraction of the continuing decline in fertility to the operation of family planning activities. One especially notable case is that of Hong Kong, which provides some of the more persuasive evidence about the independent effects of family planning intervention.     

Family structure and and fertility behavior in Taiwan

The present analysis is based on the 1990 Taiwan Human Resources Survey to study the relationships between family structure, women's complete fertility and birth spacing. Imputed family size, as measured by either the ideal number of children expressed by a married woman or the number of actual surviving children whichever is larger, is used as a proxy of a woman's complete fertility. The results indicate a majority of married couples in Taiwan begin married life living with the husband's parents and later move out to establish a nuclear unit. This limited experience in the extended family exerts an upward pressure on imputed family size even when other relevant variables are statistically controlled. Further, the effect of living with the husband's parents on shorter duration of birth spacing is only limited to the time when the parents provide free child- care for married couples.     

Emigration and fertility decline: The case of Barbados

This paper examines the role of emigration in the recent fertility declines which have occurred on the island of Barbados. Barbados with a history of over two centuries of out-migration has experienced in the period 1951–1970 very significant migration loss. In the period 1960–1970 and up to the present fertility has been declining. An important question is what part has this net migration loss of 32,600 had on the reduction of the crude birth rate from 33.6 in 1960 or from 31.5 in 1956 to 20.5 in 1970? Using officially published net migration loss figures and supplementing them with data on Barbadians living overseas, we calculated the crude birth rates which would have occurred had there been no migration loss. We also calculated the numbers of births to be expected if certain age-specific fertility rates were maintained and compared these with the births to residents plus the calculated births to Barbadians overseas. We conclude that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

The Bangladesh fertility decline: an interpretation

The claim has been made, notably in a 1994 World Bank report, that the Bangladesh fertility decline shows that efficient national family planning programs can achieve major fertility declines even in countries that are very poor, and even if females have a low status and significant socioeconomic change has not occurred. This article challenges this claim on the grounds that Bangladesh did experience major social and economic change, real and perceived, over the last two decades. This proposition is supported by official data and by findings of the authors' 1997 field study in rural southeast Bangladesh. That study demonstrates that most Bangladeshis believe that conditions are very different from the situation a generation ago and that on balance there has been improvement. Most also believe that more decisions must now be made by individuals, and these include decisions to have fewer children. In helping to achieve these new fertility aims, however, the services provided by the family planning program constituted an important input.     

Is aboriginal fertility on the decline?

This paper examines if there has been sustained Aboriginal fertility decline since the mid-1980s, as expected in previous studies (Gray 1983, 1990; Jain 1989), by analysing fertility information obtained from the 1994 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey, birth registrations and midwives’ collections data by states. Although two studies (Gray and Tesfaghiorghis 1993:87–90; Dugbaza 1994) refuted this expectation, the results are questionable because of the unreliability of the data on which the estimates were based and the lack of fertility information. This study has produced more reliable age patterns of fertility at the national and state levels. The paper also examines the definition of Aboriginality and associated measurement problems, which are central to an understanding of Aboriginal demography.     

Causes of fertility decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union

Abstract This is the first part of a wider study which attempts to throw iight on the demographic, economic and social factors that have led to dramatic declines in fertility levels in most socialist countries of Eastern Europe during the last fifteen years or so. The present part is concerned with the purely demographic influences, that is mainly with the impact of changes in the age and sex structure of the populations under study, and in nuptiality. The statistical evidence adduced indicates that the observed downward trends in the annual number of births and in crude birth rates are a reflection of genuine changes in attitudes towards family size.     

Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview

Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.     

Retrospective evidence of a decline of fertility and child mortality in Bangladesh

A detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961–1962 for a sample of 4200 families in central East Pakistan produced consistent and reasonable estimates of birth and death rates for the preceding decade. Extremely high levels of infant and child mortality declined noticeably in the period 1952–1961. Age-specific birth rates to married women also decreased in the decade for women over the age of 19, while a small increase was recorded for married women aged 15 to 19. During the 1950s total marital fertility declined about one-fifth. Birth rates remained high in 1960 according to these estimates, but there is reason to anticipate further reductions in birth rates, particularly among older women. To improve understanding of the determinants of fertility and to aid in the formulation of policy to cope with population trends, statistical analysis must increasingly consider information on families over time. Retrospective household survey data may provide the empirical base for this line of inquiry.     

Causes of fertility decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union II

Abstract The first part of this study (which appeared in the preceding issue of Population Studies) assessed the extent of the decline in fertility in the countries of the area during the last 10-15 years, and analyzed the purely demographic aspects ofthis phenomenon. Part II examines the socio-economic differentials in fertility, with regard to such variables as urban-rural residence, socio-occupational and employment status of women, educational attainment, income and housing conditions, and the consequent impact of structural changes in these characteristics of the population on observed fertility trends. The broad conclusion is that the fertility differentials usually found in western societies are also relevant to the socialist countries of eastern Europe, and that the dramatic falls in fertility in the 1950's and the 1960's have largely been the outcome ofthe deep and rapid structural changes, particularly those associated with urbanization, educational attainment and the incidence of female employment. The last part of the study is concerned with the impact on post-war fertility trends of social legislation and of general economic policies, particularly in the fields of employment and income. An appraisal of the extent of family planning is followed by a discussion of the recent pro-natalist measures introduced in most countries of the area and of their effectiveness.     

The decline of fertility: Innovation or adjustment process

Abstract In Western society the process of fertility decline is often regarded as an innovation process. The assumptions behind this approach seem rather questionable, and the diffusion lags or gradients of limited importance. Both Swedish and other European data are used as illustrations. It is suggested that the decline be treated within the wider sociological perspective of a time-consuming adjustment or change process, not necessarily starting from a position of completely uncontrolled fertility within marriage. The situation in to-day's high fertility populations is briefly discussed against this background.     

Below-replacement fertility and prospects for labour force growth in Taiwan

Fertility in Taiwan had declined to replacement level in 1983. In 1986–1997, the total fertility rate dropped to 1.7–1.8, with continuing decreases observed in 1997–2001. Fertility will probably be sustained at the 2001 level of 1.48 or even decline further in the future. If the current fertility and labour-force participation rates persist, the size of the labour force will increase only slightly in the next 15 years and begin to shrink soon after 2015. After 2034, the labour force will fall below the current level and Taiwan will face a labour shortage. Though efficient, the policy option of importing more foreign workers is fraught with political sensitivities, especially given the current economic downturn and rising unemployment. Another policy approach, to increase the participation rates for women and mature men, would lead to growth in the labour supply sometime after 2030 and, combined with a modest increase in fertility, would prevent the labour force from falling below its current size in the next 50 years. Notwithstanding that any increase in fertility will have a delayed effect on labour supply, strong incentives are still required to affect fertility behaviour.     

Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic

In this paper, we analyze the decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) in the Czech Republic during the economic transition. To identify transition-specific features of this decline, we estimate a Heckman–Walker multistate model of the birth process using data from the 1998 Family and Fertility Survey. We find that the negative effect of transition on TFR is mostly driven by a sharply increased influence of higher education, limited ability to combine employment with childbearing and lack of adequate childcare facilities. We also detect a significant role of the increased use of contraception, motivated by both economic and demographic reasons.