Five levels of family planning progress: lessons from Thailand

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has developed terms to categorize nations on the basis of their level of modern contraceptive prevalence. Categorization reveals national family planning elements and circumstances common to each level, aiding policymakers in policy projection and appropriate program formulation. At the lowest prevalence level, emergent countries demonstrate less than 8% modern contraceptive prevalence. Launch countries are from 8-15%, growth countries from 16-34%, consolidation countries from 35-49%, while mature countries range from 50% and higher. Related country characteristics according to respective stages are explored in the paper. Thailand's successful progression through these stages is provided as a model example. For developing countries at a more broad level, launch stage countries should emphasize consensus building for family planning, and consider adopting a national family planning policy. Growth stage countries require effective communication programs, while countries in the consolidation phase need to attract groups from outside of the mainstream. Finally, countries in the mature stage should progressively realize greater responsibility in the private sector for service provision.     

Planet earth 1984-2034: a demographic vision

In recognition of 1984 as the year of both Orwell's famous futuristic novel and the International Population Conference following up the 1974 World Population Conference, this Bulletin examines the current state of world population and presents the author's speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8%/year, is being shaped by 3 demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in developed nations, perhaps partly in response to the reduced need for workers in the emerging information era; rapid growth despite failing fertility in developing nations, due to earlier rapid mortality decline; and rapid urbanization in developing nations and unprecedented migration from poor to better-off nations. The author's assumptions for nondemographic factors related to population change in the next 50 years are no world war, nuclear or otherwise; global resource adequacy; rapid scientific and technological progress shared equitably; and the demise of capitalism and communism and greatly increased economic aid from advanced to less advanced nations. For 2034 the author envisages nations divided into service/information societies (4% of global population) where immigration balances low fertility to prevent population decline; industrialized nations (38% of total), with fertility close to or at replacement level and growth slowing; developing nations (43%), in sight of replacement level fertility; and least developed nations, with still critical demographic problems but only 15% of the world population. Total population will be 8.03 billion, but growth will be down to 0.8%/year and global zero growth is possible in another 50 years. This relatively optimistic scenario for 2034 will only be possible if mankind acts to see that the stated nondemographic assumptions are borne out.     

Rural-urban residence and modernism: A study of Ankara Province,Turkey

Data from the Ankara Family Study, in which 1138 married women living in Ankara city and four selected villages in Ankara Province were interviewed in 1965–66, are used to study the impact of the amount and timing of urban residential experience on six dimensions of modernism in attitudes and behavior. Scores on the modernism indexes consistently are higher for the women with urban residential experience. The proportions of variance in the study population accounted for by the urbanism factor are: nearly three-fifths on the mass media index; nearly two-fifths on the nuclear family role structure index; three-tenths on the home production or consumption index; two-tenths on the religiosity and extra-local orientation indexes; and a seventh on the extended family ties index. The place of residence prior to marriage, the period when decisions about schooling are made and socialization into adult roles occurs, appears to be of special importance. Women who migrated from villages to the city at any stage of the life-cycle, however, report attitudes and behavior more modern than those of women with no urban residential experience (though less modern than those of women who have always lived in a city). Such micro-social analyses may help to illuminate the relation between urbanization and modernization in developing nations and to account for the coexistence of modern and traditional patterns in transitional societies.     

Declining world fertility: trends,causes, implications

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."     

Urbanization, non-familial work, education, and fertility in Taiwan

Abstract It is well known, that there is a relationship between the level of development of a society and its level offertility.(1) However, it is not clear which of the complex ofvariables associated with development are primarily associated with the reduction of fertility. Urbanization, female labour force participation and education are three of the variables most commonly cited as bearing a causal relationship to fertility. Urbanization implies a change of environment of a substantial portion of the population which may result in a change in the value placed on large families. This is particularly true when urban mortality is lower than rural, so that more children survive.(2) However, it has also been argued that urbanization results in a change in family structure from the extended to the nuclear family with a concomitant reduction in the value placed on having many children.(3) Additional changes in family patterns which are sometimes said to explain fertility reduction due to urbanization are increases in the proportion of women never marrying and increases in the age at marriage.     

The three R's: Residence,religion, and reproduction

Survey research data collected in Rhode Island over a three year interval are used to test six propositions: 1) Suburbanites have higher family size than central city residents. 2) Any differences in family size between Catholics and non-Catholics are larger in central city than in suburban areas. 3) Within religious categories, suburbanites attend church more regularly. 4) Among Catholics, suburban residence is associated with less frequent Communion reception. 5) Among Catholics, church attendance frequency is positively associated with family size. Among non-Catholics no relationship exists. 6) The frequency with which Catholics receive Communion is more strongly associated positively with family size than is church attendance frequency. Propositions 1, 2 and 5 are rejected. Propositions 4 and 6 are accepted. Proposition 3 is accepted for non-Catholics only.     

Differential life-styles between migrants and nonmigrants: A case study of the city of Shiraz,Iran

The migration pattern to Shiraz, a southern city of Iran, is not consistent with the general pattern observed in cities of the other developing nations. Migrants to Shiraz are largely from other cities, and they are more advanced educationally and socioeconomically and less traditional than native Shirazi. This study is based on 1,061 interview cases collected at random. The sample consists of 612 nonmigrants, 125 rural migrants and 324 urban migrants. These groups were compared on thirtyfour indices measuring various facets of the respondents' life-styles. The three groups differed statistically on most of the indices. Fatalism and possession of modern appliances were the most important factors differentiating the three groups.     

Poverty in the Philippines: the impact of family size

The people of Asia are beginning to realize that lower fertility translates into increased family wealth and educational attainment. This is the message that population and development efforts have been focusing on. In the Philippines, the goal is to lower fertility with a strategy based on the assumption that increased capacity of the economy will support a growing population at a higher standard of living. In the Philippines, over 33% of the households have 7 or more family members, while 20% of urban and 27% of rural households have 4 or more. The risk of poverty associated with increased number of children are 44-50% for 1 child and 60-78% for those with 5. Households spend up to 10% of their total income to raise 1 child, 18% for 2, and 26% for 4 children. Because many families lack the resources to raise children the per child share drops dramatically with each child, a household with 4 children spends 25% less per child than does 1 with 2 children. Occupation also affects income as the highest poverty rates are among heads of household who are: laborers (60%) and agricultural workers (73%). The best solution is an integrated approach with increases in family planning, education, and agricultural reform.     

Attitudes toward family size and family planning in nairobi

In Nairobi, 352 married African adults, 152 men and 200 women, were interviewed on their attitudes toward family size and family planning. The respondents had, on the average, slightly less than three children at the time of interview and hoped to add slightly more than three children to this total. There was little difference in desired family size by sex.About one-half of both men and women had some knowledge of family planning methods, and there was a general interest (75 percent of the men and 90 percent of the women) in learning more. In addition, two out of every three men, and nine out of every ten women, approved of family planning, and even greater majorities of both sexes were willing to have the government of Kenya provide such services.In spite of their approval, however, only 13 percent of the men, and 2 percent of the women, had ever practiced family planning. These findings are broadly comparable to those found in other emerging nations and suggest that knowledge, interest, and approval generally precede use.     

Just Like in Their Home Country? A Multinational Perspective on Living Arrangements of Older Immigrants in the United States

Older immigrants are more likely to share residence with their adult children and other family members than are U.S.-born older adults. Because socioeconomic factors only partially explain these differences and direct measures of cultural preferences are seldom available, the persistently high rates of intergenerational coresidence among the older foreign-born are often interpreted as driven by cultural preferences and/or a lack of assimilation. To challenge this interpretation, this study investigates the extent to which older immigrants’ living arrangements deviate from those of older adults in their home countries. The analysis combines data on immigrants from the 2008–2012 American Community Survey (ACS) with census data from three major immigrant-sending countries: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Vietnam. Despite persistent differences from U.S.-born whites, coresidence in later life is significantly less common than in the sending countries among the older foreign-born who migrated as young adults, and especially among those who migrated as children. The older foreign-born who migrated after age 50, however, are more likely to coreside and less likely to live independently than the older adults in their home countries. The similarity of these patterns across the three immigrant subgroups suggests that the unusually high coresidence among late-life immigrants is driven by U.S. family reunification policy and not simply by cultural influences.     

Family Practices,Holiday and the Everyday

Holidays are central to the rhythm of everyday family practices and consumption, and are often depicted, within both academic literature and consumer marketing, as a defining moment in contemporary family life. To date, academic accounts of the experiences of travel and tourism have been mostly developed outside of the realm of everyday family practices and intimate relations. In this paper, therefore, we advance an interpretation of family holidays as a constituent of everyday family practices. To do this, we bring together three distinct yet interrelated conceptual frameworks: those of family practices, holiday and the everyday. Presenting and analysing data collected from ethnographic research with six families and exploring the themes of anticipation and utopian family practices, we identify how the notion of family holidays can be used a conduit for realising not only relationality between family members but also as a means of easing out the tensions and aspirations of everyday family life, a way to perfect the everyday and also to make it more palatable.     

Nuptiality and population growth

Abstract In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility - without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.(1) We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

Junior partners: Women's contribution to family income in Canada

This research examines the degree of financial contribution of married women to their overall family income. This phenomenon is analyzed from the point of view of sex-role/human capital orientations. The sex-role position argues that regardless of women's social, economic and education background their financial input to household economy will always be less than fifty percent because women's financial opportunities are impeded by sex-role configurations and expectations. The human capital thesis explains women's apparent inability to contribute more than half of the family income as a function of their lower human capital; that is, education, professionalization and training in the labour market. Individual data pertaining to thirty-year old married women, taken from the 1981 Canadian census, are examined. Generally, we find support for the positions: Women with relatively high human capital assmulation contribute significantly to overall household income, but invariably that contribution is less than 50 percent of total family income. On average, all women contribute 22 percent of their families annual income, while working women provide approximately 33 percent of the total. This analysis demonstrates what appears to be a pervasive phenomenon in industrial nations: married women are generally junior economic partners within the family. The extent of junior partnerships, however, is somewhat conditioned by women's human capital resources.     

Indicators of contraceptive policy for nations at three levels of development

The study is concerned with examining variations in contraceptive policies among 74 nations of the world. Employing quantitative data collected by the United Nations, the national policies for three types of contraceptive devices (birth control pills, condoms and IUDs) were examined for nations at three levels of development. The policies for the three items were found to be highly intercorrelated. Given this fact, a restrictiveness index related to the commercial sale of the three types of contraceptive was constructed. A set of independent variables was then related to this restrictive index employing multivariate analysis. The results differed appreciably for the developed and non-developed nations. For the developed nations restrictiveness was significantly related to the fertility rate and the number of physicians in the society, whereas for the developing nations it was significantly related to the infant mortality rate in the society.     

Public policy and the total fertility rate: cross-sectional evidence from the LDCs

A framework developed by Easterlin for the analysis of fertility in developing societies is modified and then tested using a sample of 65 less-developed countries. The focus is on assessing the impact of public policy on the national fertility rate. Public policy is reflected in the average levels of education and health in the population and in the condition of the national family planning program. To test for threshold effects with respect to socioeconomic development, the sample is divided on the basis of the infant mortality rate. Fertility rates in those nations characterized by high infant mortality are likely to be determined more by conditions of natural fertility. Those nations with lower infant mortality, and hence greater socioeconomic development, are more likely to exhibit deliberate fertility control. The results of the regression analysis do suggest that different factors influence the national fertility rate depending upon the stage of development. For the least-developed nations, the secondary school enrollment rate, an indicator of the extent of economic mobility, and the ratio of school age children to teachers, a proxy for the national commitment to human capital formation, are important. For the more advanced of the LDCs, adult literacy and the infant mortality rate seem to predominate. For all the developing nations, however, the results confirm the importance of strong family planning programs. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the research.     

A worldwide view of population trends

The UN Population Commission held its 20th session in New York from 29 January to 9 February, with an agenda that included reviews of UN action to implement recommendations of the 1974 World Population Conference; of progress in population work by the UN Population Division; and of the medium-term plan, 1980-1983. Of a total of 29 countries and 22 organizations participating, 5 countries were Asian--India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand. The report on monitoring of trends and policies was the most detailed examination of the global demographic situation yet available, and revealed the following facts: 1) 80% of the population of the developing countries are in countries which the governments have considered that a slower rate of population growth would be desirable; 2) among developed countries, nearly all governments preferred their rate of population growth to remain as high as or become higher than at present; 3) among the developing countries, 6 of the 8 nations having a population greater than 50 million wished to reduce their rate of growth; 4) 80% of all countries considered the rate of population growth the be of basic importance for development; and 5) with respect to mortality, about 75% of all governments of developing countries considered the prevailing level to be unsatisfactory; while among developed countries the same proportion considered the prevailing level to be acceptable. As a result of its deliberations on the report, the Population Commission endorsed the Population Information Network concept of a decentralized network for the coordination of regional, national, and nongovernmental population information activities.     

Some roots of preference: Roles,activities and familial values

This paper examines some of the connecting links between modernization in a developing society, particularly urbanization and increased education for women, and preferences for number of children. Using 1973 Taiwan data, preferences for smaller families are found to be consistently related to modern attitudes and behavior in the three domains examined: intrafamilial husband-wife role relationships, extrafamilial activities of the wife, and familial and religious values relating the family to the larger institutional setting. Modernization of these attitudes, behaviors, and values has an impact on reproductive goals independent of their association with structural variables. The wife's outside activities and exposure to modern influences through the mass media are especially important linkages, having a particularly strong mediating effect in the education effect on preferences. Intrafamilial relations appear to be of less importance. Modernization of familial and religious values mediates between urbanization and family size preferences. The measure of preference used is a scale value which has been found in other research to be more predictive of reproductive behavior than the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted. As the level of contraceptive use rises in developing societies, family size preferences increasingly become a factor in birth rates, and understanding the sources of change in these preferences takes on added importance. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

New realities of the American family

The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of American families have changed dramatically over the past few decades. While the male breadwinner/female homemaker model was long traditionally typical,l contemporary families may be openly made up of single-parents, remarried couples, unmarried couples, stepfamilies, foster families, extended or multigenerational families, or 2 families within 1 household. Families are now most likely to have 3 or fewer children, a mother employed outside of the home, and a 50% chance of parental divorce before the children are grown. These trends are common not only in America, but in most industrialized nations around the world. In fact, family trends are so fluid that the US Census Bureau and workplace policy find it difficult to keep pace. This report presents and discusses social and demographic trends behind the ever-changing face of the American family. Households and types of families are further defined, as are the living arrangements of children, young adults, and the elderly. Marriage, divorce, and remarriage trends, age at marriage rates, and interracial marriage are then discussed. Next examined are declining family size, teenage parents, contraception and abortion, unwed mothers, and technological routes to parenthood. The changing roles of family members and family economic well-being are discussed in sections preceding closing comments on the outlook for the American family.     

Population activities of the United States government

The editor's comment in this issue of the journal cites 5 overlapping phases in the evolution of population and family planning programs in the United States. The phases are 1) collecting census data and vital statistics, 1790-, 2) family planning assistance to developing nations, 1963, 3) family planning assistance to the U.S. "disadvantaged," 1964-, 4) overpopulation as a national concern, 1969-, and 5) the multiple action phase, 197? (phase including diverse steps to limit population growth and occurring after basic attitudes toward human reproduction have changed). The issue of the journal focuses on total population size and rates of population increase rather than on the distribution of population, and on federal action rather than on the activities of state and local governments. The editor's comment is followed by an extensive discussion of population activities of the United States government, especially since 1963. Topics discussed include demographic data, international programs, research, federally subsidized family planning services, medical care programs, educational and international programs, national growth policy, and the roles of the legislative and executive branches of government. A directory listing federal agencies with substantial and identifiable programs concerned with population and family planning is appended.     

A further note on the relation between economic development and fertility

The relationship between economic development and fertility has been examined by several scholars. In particular Heer, using data from 41 nations (24 developing and 17 developed) tested three hypotheses. His objective was to reconcile the two prevailing views in this context, namely, that economic development on one hand promotes and on the-other inhibits fertility. However, when we reran Heer’s data separately for the two groups of countries in his list, the pattern of relationships between the variables that he used changed significantly. On this basis, we restricted this study to a further examination of his three hypotheses using data from developing nations only but for two points in time. The evidence from this study seems to support two of the hypotheses in Heer’s study. In other words, whether the analysis of this relationship is restricted to developing nations or includes both developed and developing nations, it remains true that increased economic development implies a decreased illiteracy and a decreased IMR; a decreased illiteracy and IMR are optimal conditions of low fertility. Nonetheless, the data examined here do not seem to resolve the question of whether increased economic development implies a decreased fertility. Accordingly, continued testing of the hypothesis at further points in time with more accurate data is in order.