Dual record demographic surveys: A re-assessment

A Review of ‘Population Growth Estimation’: A Handbook of Vital Statistics Measurement, by Eli S. Marks, W. Seltzer and K. J. Krotki. pp. 496     

Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from demographic and health surveys

This article reports levels, trends, and age patterns of adult mortality in 23 sub-Saharan Africa countries, based on the sibling histories and orphanhood data collected by the countries' Demographic and Health Surveys. Adult mortality has risen sharply since HIV became prevalent, but the size and speed of the mortality increase varies greatly among countries. Excess mortality is concentrated among women aged 25-39 and among men aged 30-44. These data suggest that the increase in the number of men who die each year has exceeded somewhat the increase for women. It is time for a systematic attempt to reconcile the demographic and epidemiological evidence concerning AIDS in Africa.     

Age estimation from the number of teeth erupted in young children: An aid to demographic surveys

The reporting of children's ages by parents is surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children's teeth is largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child's age. We have collected published data from 42 studies of children's dentition and have transformed them into estimates of age for children with particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different populations, but the lack of significant differences between these estimates justifies the use of a standard set.     

The cocos-keeling islands: A demographic laboratory

The Cocos Islands, which are situated in the Indian Ocean approximately halfway between Colombo and Fremantle, were first peopled early in the nineteenth century and were gradually developed as a very isolated coconut plantation with a labour force consisting partly of persons of Malay stock descended from the original group of settlers and partly of Bantamese contract labourers from Java. As the Cocos-born population increased in size, the dependence on contract labour decreased and, before the end of the century, all immigration ceased. The 1947 Malay population of the islands was about 1,800.

The islands are fascinating from a demographer's point of view because there was a virtually complete registration of live births, deaths and marriages and a partial registration of stillbirths. With these registration records it was possible to construct the life history of every individual from birth, through infancy and childhood to marriage, and thence through fatherhood or motherhood to death.

The picture revealed by an analysis of these records is that of a population with very high fertility and with mortality at a high level before the first World war and at a medium level after that war. Crude birth rates varied between 50 and 60 per thousand population during the period 1888 to 1947. Crude death rates were between 30 and 40 per thousand population until 1912 but under 2.0 per thousand population after 1918.

Most Cocos girls married before reaching the age of 20 and there were an average of between eight and nine live births per woman living through the childbearing period. There was a steady decline in the average number of live births with advancing age at marriage from age 16 onwards. A significantly high proportion of those dying in the middle of the childbearing period had never married, but the fertility of those marrying at an early age (14, 15 and 16) and dying before reaching the age of 36 was slightly higher than that of those who married at a similar age and survived. Women who survived to the age of 55 were of higher fertility than those who died between the ages of 40 and 55. An analysis of birth intervals revealed significant differences (a) between birth intervals after a stillbirth or after a live birth in which the child died in early infancy, and birth intervals after a live birth in which the offspring survived for longer than 0.4 years, and (b) between the interval from first to second birth and the subsequent birth intervals. There was a difference of almost exactly a year between the average birth interval after a stillbirth or live birth ending in a neo-natal death and the average birth interval after the birth of a child surviving to age 2; there was a similar difference of a year between corresponding median birth intervals.

From 1888 to 1912 infant mortality was well above 300 per thousand. After 1918 infant mortality averaged rather under 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The reduction in infant mortality rates was accompanied by an increase in the mortality of children aged 1 to 4, and the heavy incidence of mortality at these ages after 1918 is the most striking feature of the analysis of mortality by age. Whilst mortality in infancy fell much more heavily on males than on females, early childhood mortality was much higher in Cocos for girls than for boys. The life table computed for the period 1918 to 1947 indicated a life expectancy of about 50 years for males and 47 years for females.     

A new service for demographic analysts: the Dynamic Data Base

This is an introduction to the services available through the Dynamic Data Base (DDB), set up in 1984 at the International Statistical Institute (ISI) in Voorburg, the Netherlands. The primary objective of the DDB is to promote policy-relevant analysis of demographic and related data. Although originally consisting of files containing survey data from 40 of the developing countries participating in the World Fertility Survey (WFS), its holdings have expanded so that by the end of 1986, the DDB held over 250 files relating to individuals, households, and communities from surveys in some 60 countries. The article includes information on holdings, documentation and archiving procedures, data access, software development and distribution, and analysis training     

The health of the clergy: A review of demographic literature

A combination of special studies and official statistics permits an evaluation of the health of the clergy over the past century. The mortality experience of clergymen has been consistently more favorable than that of the general male population. It also has been favorable in comparison with the experience of men in the legal and medical professions although this differential has been diminishing. The initially favorable position of the clergy relative to teachers has been reversed. There is some evidence of mortality differentials within the clerical profession by major faith, denomination, or ministerial specialty. Clergymen have a relatively high mortality rate from cardiovascularrenal diseases and malignancies, but a very low rate for non-degenerative diseases and suicide. Morbidity statistics for the clergy are fragmentary. They may be over-represented among persons hospitalized for conditions that are emotional in origin. The clergy has some special advantages for studies of health, primarily that both membership in the study population and mortality can be determined with comparative ease. Several areas of future research are suggested.     

U.S. Hispanics: A demographic and issue profile

This paper highlights sociodemographic characteristics of Hispanics and extrapolates issues attendant to this large and growing segment of American society. Educational, political, and economic issues are considered.This article was presented at the 40th California History Institute sponsored by the Holt-Atherton center for Western Studies, the University of the Pacific, Stockton, California, April 24–25, 1987.     

Demographic responses and demographic transitions: A case study of sweden

An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if out-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden—it did not conform to Friedlander’s hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis’s theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.     

Female sterilizing operations in New South Wales: A demographic perspective

This paper examines trends in female sterilizing operations from a demographic perspective. These operations have declined in New South Wales since 1981, with a substantial drop in tubal ligation and hysterectomy, particularly among younger women. The decline in sterilization of women of childbearing age has been due to postponement of births. Younger women have avoided terminal methods of birth control and continued to use methods, such as oral contraceptives and back-up abortion, which allow for a pregnancy at a later age. Sterilizing operations still remain the most commonly reported means of birth control by women over age 35.     

The mental health demographic profile system: A longitudinal information system

This paper presents the plans currently being developed to make the Mental Health Demographic Profile System into a longitudinal information system useful for research and program planning. Topics discussed are as follows:

1. Development of a data base that contains 1960, 1970, and 1980 small areas (census tracts, MCDs or CCDs, counties). Preliminary tables for 1960,and 1970 will be displayed. Problems of identifying constant small areas for 1960 and 1970 are discussed.
2. Items to be included in the standard profile and items to be available for use (but not part of the standard profile) are discussed.
3. Improvement of access to the data system is discussed. This includes a discussion of the interactive programs being developed and the possible transfer of service and maintenance functions (but not development functions) to the National Center for Health Statistics.

     

Correction to: Investigating demographic processesusing innovative combinations of remotelysensed and demographic data

Population and Environment - The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. The name “Kluger” in the second paragraph should be changed to “Kugler”.     

A demographic perspective on the Muslim world

A demographic perspective is relevant to understanding the position of Muslims in today’s world. This paper examines the size and growth of Muslim populations, and whether most Muslims live in overwhelmingly Muslim countries. It also examines indices of poverty and human development for Muslimmajority countries, and the growth of the youth population; finally, it examines the key components of population growth: mortality and fertility. Mortality has declined sharply over the past 15 years in many Muslim countries, though not in all, and Muslim countries are no longer prominent among the ‘outliers’ with higher mortality than expected on the basis of their income levels. Fertility rates are also declining sharply in a number of major Muslim-majority countries, raising interesting issues about attitudes of different schools of Islamic jurisprudence, village-level religious leaders and ordinary Muslims towards contraception and abortion, as well as the role of socio-economic development and family planning programs in fertility declines. Despite these declines, past high fertility in many Muslim-majority countries leaves as a legacy a rapidly growing adolescent population and a burgeoning, inadequately educated labour force.     

Changes in childlessness in the United States: A demographic path analysis

Summary This paper describes changes in the incidence of marital childlessness among United States women since 1940 and tests a model to explain recent observed trends toward increasing childlessness. Based on U.S. Bureau of the Census sources, data are presented that indicate a substantial increase in childlessness for married women under 30 years of age since 1960. A path model is developed based on previous research on childlessness, in an attempt to explain this change. The model is composed of 1960-70 changes in (1) mean age at first marriage, (2) mean educational attainment, (3) the proportion of women in the labour force, (4) the proportion of women enrolled as students, (5) the incidence of marital disruption, and (6) the proportion of women living in urban environments. Using quarter-year age cohort data derived from the 1960 and 1970 1/100 Public Use Samples the results indicate that a substantial part of the increase in childlessness csn be explained by this model. Particularly important were increased enrolment of married women in education, labour force participation, and mean age of first marriage. The results suggest the relevance of structural changes along with birth expectation attitudes in predicting trends in childlessness in the United States.     

A demographic study of the British ducal families

The available records of the ducal families of the British Isles have been studied in order to determine fertility and mortality among the highest social class.

The expectation of life was considerably higher for females than males, but a large part of the difference could be explained by deaths from violence. Mortality fell rather abruptly about the middle of the eighteenth century, and perhaps again in the twentieth century. At other times mortality has fallen gradually.

The mortality of the aristocracy was similar in Britain and the Continent. The differences are rather in favour of Britain, especially for children and old people.

The mean age at marriage rose from 22 to 29 for men, and from 17 to 24 for women, between the fourteenth and the eighteenth centuries. Thereafter it has scarcely varied. Eldest sons have always married at younger ages than did their brothers.

Between about 1760 and 1860, the rate of fertility was remarkbly high. To a large extent, falling mortality accounts for the sudden rise in fertility in the mid-18th century, but it does not explain all the increase. After 1860 or so, fertility fell, as in the general population, and at present ducal families are just failing to reproduce themselves.

In every period, roughly one in six of all marriages of completed fertility were childless. The decline in fertility was thus brought about by a reduction in the proportion of large families.

Especially since 1700, marriages into another peerage family produced more children than did other marriages. There is no evidence that the first child was significantly more often male than were subsequent children.     

Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation

This paper investigates the relationship between growth and inequality from a demographic point of view. In an extended model of the accidental bequest with endogenous fertility, we analyze the effects of a decrease in old-age mortality rate on the equilibrium growth rate as well as on the income distribution. We show that the relationship between growth and inequality is at first positive and then may be negative in the process of population aging. The results are consistent with the empirical evidence in some developed countries.

Modern and traditional value orientations and fertility behavior: A social demographic study

Modern versus traditional value orientations based on the Kluckhohn and Strodtbeck schema are related to family size preferences and birth control effectiveness. Value orientations are viewed as mediating the relationship between socioeconomic status and the fertility behavior variables. Interviews with a probability sample of women in Lexington, Kentucky, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. The results indicate that both value orientations and socioeconomic status are related to fertility behavior. The inference can be made that value orientations aid in interpreting the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility behavior but that other status-related variables are operating.     

A new technique for measuring preferences in demographic studies

In this article, we introduce an alternative technique to the single-sentence question for measuring preferences for number of children, age at marriage, length of first birth interval, length of employment, and years of schooling. This new measurement procedure utilizes a graphic scale rather than verbal responses, and it places family size decisions within the context of several other major life cycle decisions. One month reliability data for the measurement technique were obtained from a sample of 107 school children. Reliability results are compared to data from a previous study of teenagers.