A comparison of different survey techniques for obtaining vital data in A developing country

This article presents estimates of the sources and the extent of observation errors in different questionnaires and methods used to collect birth and death data in the 1961-63 multi-purpose sample survey of Morocco.The questionnaires used in the analysis of the three survey rounds were a list of household members (Rounds1 and 2) and a roll-call (Round3); retrospective death (Rounds1, 2, and 3) and birth (Round 3) queries; a date-of-birth tabulation (Round 2); and a household check-sheet to explain differences between Rounds 1 and 2. All available questionnaires for a given household were brought together and collated to provide several sources of information on births and deaths and a basis for assessing errors.From this analysis, the survey attempted to define the nature and to estimate the frequency of the errors which would have occurred if more restricted types of survey design had been used. Results, based on the period between Rounds 1 and 2, led to three major conclusions.First, if vital data had been collected with a single-round retrospective procedure, gross error (over enumeration plus underenumeration) would have been 17 percent for births and 36 percent for deaths. There is a net error of overenumeration of 3 percent for births (1.4 per1,000population) and 9 percent for deaths (2.3 per1,000population).Second, if two rounds were available to permit a combination of household composition follow-up and a retrospective mortality questionnaire, overenumeration would be almost entirely eliminated and underenumeration would be noticeably reduced. Third, most of the remaining errors of underestimation may be attributed to (1) an estimated number of infants born and deceased between two rounds and missed by all questionnaires, (2) matching failures caused by the absence of adults at Round 1, and (3) matching errors.     

Sample registration in gujarat,india

Since October, 1965, births and deaths in rural Gujarat State, India, have been recorded under two independent systems in a random sample of units. First, a part-time local "registrar" is appointed in each sample unit (village or segment thereof) who: prepares a house list; conducts a baseline survey showing the individuals in each household; and maintains a list of the vital events reported by informants whom he contacts fortnightly. Second, a staff member at the rural health centre is assigned part-time supervisory and survey duties: to check the initial listings of the registrar; thereafter, to inspect the registrar's records at least quarterly; and to conduct a household survey each six months, updating the household register and recording births and deaths independently. The registrar's list is sent to the district office immediately before the survey, where it is matched with the survey list forwarded by the local supervisor. A list of unmatched events is returned to the supervisor who with the registrar revisits households to resolve the discrepancies. Under-registration is estimated to be 13 to 20 percent by the registrar method, 8 to 17 percent by the survey method. The birth rate is estimated to be about 44 and the death rate about 19.     

China's rural population statistics at the local level

Written for those who use Chinese population data and want a better understanding of their provenance and reliability and those who may directly utilize local level materials in studies of Chinese population and social structure, this report describes the statistical system of 1 rural county, Shifang Xian in the Chengdu Plain of Sichuan Province. It is based on interviews with local government officials, on examinations of population records and reports at different levels of administration, and on a sample survey of households conducted in the winter and spring of 1981. Until the mid 1970s, the primary source of China's rural population data was the household and vital events registers established in the 1950s. Following the formation of the Birth Planning Office in 1971, a separate reporting system of population statistics began to develop alongside the household registration system. The birth planning system uses the reports of team, brigade, and commune level cadres concerned with health work and women's affairs to provide a richer and more current set of vital events and birth planning data than the household registration system could provide. Discrepancies in data emerging from the 3 sources are bound to occur because of error and because of the different methods used in the compilation of data. Currently, there are 2 basic sources for population data in Shifang Xian: the monthly reports of the brigade level birth planning workers and the year end reports of the team accountants. The household and vital events registers, once central to population statistics, retain their legal role but have diminished importance for statistical purposes. There continues to be important questions about the operation of the statistical system. With increasing reliance on the newly developed birth planning statistical system for information on vital rates, Shifang has apparently moved from statistics based on date of registration derived from a de jure system of vital events registration to statistics based on date of occurrence derived from de facto or quasi de facto records of health workers and team accountants. As the latter system is more accurate, it seems likely that transition has been marked by discontinuities in time series of population counts and vital rates. The statistical system observed in Shifang is administered by highly motivated cadres. It apparently produces statistics of good quality. Linkage to the economy, constant updating, surveillance of pregnancy, and a level of overlap give the overall system considerable strength and should not produce substantial errors under normal circumstances. A serious remaining problem, i.e., the underreporting of infant deaths, is primarily due to inadequate training of statistical workers. Shifang Xian is an unusual county, and no conclusions should be drawn about the accuracy of rural population statistics based on performance there.     

Sample registration in India

India's ad hoc sample registration scheme for obtaining current estimates of rural birth and death rates for the whole country is being implemented quite rapidly. Five states have 140 sample units, and eleven states will have from 20 to 100 units in the study depending upon the stage of implementation by March, 1967.Essential elements of the project for each unit are: (1) continuous registration of vital events by a paid part-time local enumerator, (2) a six-month household survey to detect births and deaths which occurred during the previous six months, and (3) matching events from registration and surveys and field recheck of unmatched events to obtain the "best" count of real number of events. Preliminary results in a non-random sample indicate that the crude birth and death rates are around 37.1 and 15.7 per 1,000, respectively, for India's rural population, but these probably will be found to be on the low side.Most of the problems of implementation are operational or administrative rather than statistical: (1) For various reasons, some states are slow in agreeing to assume financial and other responsibilities for the scheme. (2) In many states, even after the scheme has been accepted, there are delays in recruiting the staff, training, and so forth. (3) The most serious problem in the whole project is maintaining control of field operations well enough at each stage to insure that prescribed instructions and methodology are being followed.Experience in India indicates that staged implementation of such projects is highly desirable when trained staff are limited. There still are a number of methodological problems which must be tested as the sample registration evolves. Sample registration is one of the first steps in the Indian program to. develop an adequate vital statistics system. Exploratory studies to measure completeness of civil registration are being done now in an effort to develop means of using civil registration data alone for measurement of vital rates.     

Demographic implications of the New United States certificates

To assist in developing uniform reporting of vital events among the fifty states, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, the United States government prepares standard certificates of birth, fetal death, death, marriage, and divorce. These model forms are revised, with the assistance of the states, approximately every ten years. Revisions are now being prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics which will become effective beginning January 1, 1968. Important new source material for demography will be introduced.Most changes will appear in the Standard Certificate of Live Birth and in the Standard Certificate of Fetal Death. An item on education of father and mother will provide detailed national data on education and fertility. The date of the last live birth to the mother and the date of the last fetal death will provide information on previous pregnancy outcome and on child-spacing. The recording of state file numbers for mates born alive and dead in the same delivery will make it easier to match live birth and fetal death certificates for the preparation of detailed tabulations on multiple births. Several new items related to maternal and child health have also been added. No significent changes were planned for the Standard Certificate of Death.The Standard Certificate of Marriage will include as new items the education of the bride and groom, the date on which the last marriage, if any, ended, and specification of the officiant as a religious or civil official. The Standard Certificate of Divorce or Annulment will obtain information on the education of husband and wife, the approximate date on which the couple separated, the mode of dissolution of the previous marriage, and the total number of living children. It is anticipated that most of the new items will be included in the certificates of all the states. The National Center for Health Statistics will provide detailed tabulations related to these items, beginning with data year 1968.Demographers are making an increased use of vital records and at the same time are extending their contacts with state health departments; in some states collaborative projects have been undertaken. Because of the importance of the source documents, which in some cases have not been exploited fully, demographers should increase their contact with the state vital statistics offices which develop, collect, and process the records. By indicating an interest in vital registration and by making their research needs known, demographers can encourage the acceptance of new concepts and collaborate in the improvement of vital records for demographic research purposes.     

Sample registration in India

Abstract The Sample Registration Project in India is designed to obtain current estimates of birth and death rates for the whole country. It is being implemented quite rapidly. Rural and urban areas in all states and Union Territories in India will be covered before the close of 1969. Bigger states have 150 sample units in rural areas and 60 to 100 units in urban areas. Essential elements of the project for each unit are: (1) continuous enumeration of births and deaths in respect of usual resident population by a paid part-time local enumerator; (2) a six-month household survey to detect births and deaths which occurred to the usual resident population during the previous six months; and (3) manual matching of all event from enumeration and surveys and field re-check of unmatched events to obtain the 'best' count of real number of events. The results of a full-scale sample in four states and pilot sample in ten states indicate that the crude birth and death rates are around 40 and 18 per 1,000, respectively, for India's rural population. Most of the problems of implementation are operational or administrative rather than statistical. The main problem in the whole project is to maintain control of field operations well enough at each stage to ensure that prescribed instructions and methodology are being followed; particularly in the six-month survey. Experience in India indicates that sample registration techniques are capable of providing reliable birth and death rates in similar conditions in developing countries. However, there are still a number of methodological problems which must be tested as the sample registration evolves.     

Mortality rates of elderly Asian American populations based on Medicare and Social Security data

We present sex- and age-specific death probabilities for the elderly of six Asian American subgroups--Chinese, Filipino, Indian, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese--based on data from social Security Administration files. We determined ethnicity by combining race, place of birth, surname, and given name. The data source and ethnic determination are the same for deaths and the population at risk, avoiding the problem of noncomparability present when data for the numerator come from vital records and data for the denominator come from census records. We found that death rates for elderly Asian Americans are lower than those for whites, and that socioeconomic differences between subgroups do not translate into like differences in mortality.     

Estimates of vital rates for the Canadian Indians, 1960–1970

The present paper is an attempt to evaluate the registered data on Canadian Indians collected by the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development and to prepare vital rates for 1960–1970 using the adjusted data. A cursory examination of registered data for the purpose of developing various demographic indices and for making future estimates of population indicates certain anomalies that call for a careful appraisal of the data. The main problem is the inconsistency in the reporting of births, due largely to the late registration of births. One plausible reason for late registration may be the increased outward movement of Indians from their reserves. Indirect methods are used to adjust the number of births and infant deaths reported annually since 1960. On the basis of the adjusted data, vital rates for the Canadian Indians are calculated for the period 1960–1970. The crude death rate decreased from 10.9 in 1960 to 7.5 in 1970. The infant mortality rate registered a drastic decline, from 81.5 deaths per 1,000 births in 1960 to 34.9 in 1970. During this same time period the birth rate also declined, from 46.5 to 37.2.     

A study of the correlation bias of unrecorded events by two independent enumeration systems

Summary In this paper the allegation that, when using the Chandrasekar-Deming technique with two independent enumeration systems to record the incidence of vital events and migrations, each individual system misses the same type of event is investigated. If this correlation bias were to occur frequently enough, it could result in a serious underestimation of a given type of event. Using vital events and migrations data derived from a longitudinal survey conducted in Liberia between 1969 and 1973, the estimated number of recorded events is tabulated into homogeneous groups that are demonstrated to affect omission rates. The proportion of missed eyents is computed separately for each enumeration system, and the presence or absence of a significant correlation mathematically determined. The results of this study suggest that no significant correlation could be demonstrated in the type of birth, death or infant death that was commonly missed by each individual enumeration system. This indicates that the omission of a birth, death or infant death was apparently a random occurrence as far as the individual casefinding systems were concerned. The authors conclude that any underestimation of vital events from this type of correlation bias may not be as serious as originally imagined. In contrast to this observation, the omission of particular types of migrations by each enumeration system was apparently not a random occurrence, but was associated with the direction of migration. This implies that selected migration rates in the liberian survey were probably understated and this could happen in other longitudinal surveys, unless specific precautions are taken to avoid it.     

Household structure and housing needs

This paper is mainly derived from the material presented in the preceding article by S. P. Brown. Indeed, while the previous analysis is of considerable intrinsic interest, the hypothetical population was constructed and its family distribution was shown for the purpose of providing a basis for estimates of housing needs. For several reasons it appeared to be essential to have such a basis. First, any housing programme has to take the future, as well as the present, distribution of households by type and size into account. Secondly, such a programme has to be designed so as not to prevent household formation—there should be dwellings for all potential households, so that involuntary doubling-up need not occur. Thirdly, most residential areas should have dwellings for an eventually stable population, that is, for one which has variety of age groups and of household types, and also fair stability of housing demand. Estimates of the distribution of potential ‘households’ could be derived from the ‘family’ distribution of the hypothetical population which reflects current demographic trends. Thus although this population is a ‘hypothetical’ one, it provides a realistic premise for considering housing needs, and because it is a ‘stationary’ one, it provides an especially suitable premise. Moreover, since the demographic characteristics of its ‘families’ and therefore of its potential households were established in far greater detail than has ever been the case in sample surveys of existing households, it was possible to classify households in the terms which appear to be most appropriate for the first draft of a housing programme, irrespective of social and economic variations in demand.

The first stage in following up Mr Brown's analysis was the conversion of ‘families’ into ‘households’. Two examples of the possible household distribution of the hypothetical population are presented. Example A, which gives a realistic, but not extreme, picture of the conversion of families into households, is used for the subsequent detailed analysis, while broader figures for distribution B are also included.

In the second stage the various types of household had to be distinguished. For estimating housing needs, two interrelated criteria of household classification are relevant—first, the stage in the life of a household, especially appropriate in considering space requirements; secondly, the age composition of households, which largely determines the type of dwelling needed.

The detailed distribution of households by size and type, based on this classification, is further translated into a distribution of dwellings by type and size. For this purpose, additional assumptions about the number of rooms and the type of dwelling needed by households of various types are introduced and applied to the hypothetical population, both to household distributions A and B. These assumptions are not based on accepted standards, nor do they suggest standards. They are merely used for the purpose of illustrating a possible method of estimating housing needs on the basis of a detailed picture of household structure. They are further designed to represent one possible compromise between economy in dwelling distribution, on the one hand, and flexibility of space for individual households, on the other.

In the final sections of the paper, the implications of the dwelling distributions here presented are discussed in relation to household mobility, and also with reference to the necessity for reconciling short-term and long-term housing needs in any housing programme.     

户籍制度改革与流动人口在流入地的居留意愿及其制约机制

本文基于一项在福建省沿海地区所做的问卷调查 ,探讨了在当前户籍制度改革中流动人口在流入地的居留意愿及其制约机制这一重要问题。结果表明 ,即使没有户籍制度这一障碍 ,流动人口中的大部分还没有把在流入地定居作为其最终目标。流动人口的居留意愿与其在流入地的生存能力和家庭策略、市场需求波动和企业用工策略等一系列非户籍因素有着密切的关系。本文认为 ,在积极推动户籍制度改革的同时 ,要在户籍制度改革之外的更广泛领域考察与流动人口有关的政策问题。     

Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates

This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply the existence of a seasonal adjustment procedure that improves on the Census X-l1 program currently used by vital statistics agencies.     

Mortality among elderly hispanics in the United States: Past evidence and new results

We used vital records and census data and Medicare and NUMIDENT records to estimate age- and sex-specific death rates for elderly non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics, including five Hispanic subgroups: persons born in Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, other foreign countries, and the United States. We found that corrections for data errors in vital and census records lead to substantial changes in death rates for Hispanics and that conventionally constructed Hispanic death rates are lower than rates based on Medicare-NUMIDENT records. Both sources revealed a Hispanic mortality advantage relative to non-Hispanic whites that holds for most Hispanic subgroups. We also present a new methodology for inferring Hispanic origin from a combination of surname, given name, and county of residence.     

Dimensions of Housing Deprivation for Older People in Ireland

Housing is an important aspect of living standards and quality of life for older persons, but the housing-related problems they may face encompass rather different circumstances, relating to the condition of the dwelling, how well equipped it is, whether housing costs represent a serious burden, and whether the neighbourhood environment is problematic. This paper brings out the importance of distinguishing these different dimensions of housing problems for older people, illustrated empirically using data for Ireland from an important new European dataset. Controlling for other factors, being older is associated with more housing quality problems but fewer housing cost and neighbourhood problems than for those of working age. The variables predicting deprivation among older people differ across the dimensions and the correlations between the dimensions are low. Over half the older people in the sample experience some form of housing-related deprivation, but a majority of these are reporting only one. Scores on a summary index for older persons are much less strongly associated with factors such as household income and poverty, marital status, and location and type of dwelling than for all households, bringing out the importance of distinguishing and studying the different dimensions and framing appropriate policy responses to each.     

Vital rates in India 1961-71 estimated from 1971 census data

Abstract In the last decade the increase in the population of India, while, of course, very large, was smaller than predicted by official forecasts. With the use of recent census and sample registration data - in the absence of age-specific rates and adequate vital statistics - this paper provides estimates of fertility and mortality through the reverse-survival and forward-projection methods. Birth rates are estimated as 40·5-42, death rates as 18-20, and life expectancy at birth as 45-46 years. Mortality decline had been smaller than forecast but more than during any comparable period in the past, even though current mortality levels, particularly infant mortality, are still high. Males continue to have a longer life expectation than females, with a difference that has widened in the past decade. The decline of between seven and ten per cent in the crude birth rate is largely due to changes in marital fertility and to some extent to changes in age and marital composition. Because of greater decline in death rates than birth rates, the 1961-71 decade shows a higher rate of population growth than previous periods.     

A study of the correlation bias of unrecorded events by two independent enumeration systems

In this paper the allegation that, when using the Chandrasekar-Deming technique with two independent enumeration systems to record the incidence of vital events and migrations, each individual system misses the same type of event is investigated. If this correlation bias were to occur frequently enough, it could result in a serious underestimation of a given type of event. Using vital events and migrations data derived from a longitudinal survey conducted in Liberia between 1969 and 1973, the estimated number of recorded events is tabulated into homogeneous groups that are demonstrated to affect omission rates. The proportion of missed eyents is computed separately for each enumeration system, and the presence or absence of a significant correlation mathematically determined. The results of this study suggest that no significant correlation could be demonstrated in the type of birth, death or infant death that was commonly missed by each individual enumeration system. This indicates that the omission of a birth, death or infant death was apparently a random occurrence as far as the individual casefinding systems were concerned. The authors conclude that any underestimation of vital events from this type of correlation bias may not be as serious as originally imagined.

In contrast to this observation, the omission of particular types of migrations by each enumeration system was apparently not a random occurrence, but was associated with the direction of migration. This implies that selected migration rates in the liberian survey were probably understated and this could happen in other longitudinal surveys, unless specific precautions are taken to avoid it.     

An economic analysis of pregnancy resolution in Virginia: specific as to race and residence

This study analyses an economic model of pregnancy resolution; that is, a model of the choice by a pregnant woman to abort her fetus or carry it to term. This analysis, using an analytical model derived from the household utility framework, adds to previous research by presenting race and residence specific estimates of how individual characteristics, history of abortion, and the community-based factors determine women's choices of giving birth vs. abortion. The main data for estimating the model were drawn from the 1984 vital statistics of all induced abortions and live births in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The major findings indicate that low parental education, high maternal age, previous early abortions, and the availability of abortion providers all significantly reduce the probability of choosing the live birth option. Married status and the availability of family planning clinics significantly increase the probability of the live birth option. The findings also suggest that women's choices between abortion and live birth vary substantially with race (white vs. black) and residential (urban vs. rural) location.I am very grateful to Professors Michael Grossman and Theodore Joyce at CUNY/NBER for their advice and comments on earlier version of this paper, to Professors William Hsiao at Harvard and Richard Ernst at USC for their supportive encouragement and insightful comments, and finally to two anonymous referees for their constructive suggestions in revising this analysis.     

New estimates of the vital rates of the United States black population during the nineteenth century

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations studyThe Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000m (0)) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end.     

Sources of error in reported childlessness in a continuous British household survey

A recent investigation of the British General Household Survey (GHS) found substantial over-reporting of childlessness in recent years, particularly at older ages. We examine the phenomenon in further detail and find that the principal cause was change in survey procedures. To some extent the bias can be corrected for by using information on own children in the household. Revised fertility histories give period estimates of total fertility that are in close agreement with national vital registration statistics, unlike those based on original fertility histories of recent years. Misreporting in fertility histories dates primarily from administrative changes in the GHS in the years 1998-2000, and particularly from 2003, when the option of laptop self-completion (CASI) was introduced for reporting demographic histories.