The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility

This paper examines the impact of parental economic status and family size on the actual and expected fertility of adult children using longitudinal data from two generations of families participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. There was a modest positive relationship between first generation family size and second generation fertility. More importantly, the ideal family size of the parental family was more closely related to fertility behavior and plans in the second generation than was actual parental family size. In addition, the data revealed the hypothesized negative correlation between parental financial status and second generation fertility behavior and plans. Several mechanisms which could produce the correlation between parental characteristics and the fertility of their children are explored.The analysis reported in this paper was supported by Contract NO1-HD-42856 from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research. Dr. Thornton is affiliated with the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Requests for reprints should be directed to him.     

Fertility and desired fertility: Longitudinal evidence from Thailand

Summary The validity and usefulness of 'desired additional children' and 'ideal family size' as predictors of fertility are analysed in this paper on the basis of longitudinal survey data from Thailand. First, the extent of measurement error in these variables is considered, and it is concluded that the error variance and the true variance are of similar orders of magnitude. Secondly, the changes in attitudes subsequent to births and deaths of children are investigated. It is found that the number of additional children desired is decreased by births and increased by deaths, but less than would be expected if 'desired additional children' represented an unchanging target family size. 'Ideal family size' is almost unaffected by births and deaths. Thirdly, the contribution of attitudinal variables to behavioural models is examined. It is found that desired fertility is explained no better than fertility in a standard economic model. A birth function separating desired children from identifiable physiological factors as explanatory variables indicated that the former was just significant. A model of contraceptive acceptance also found desired fertility to be a significant determinant. Thus, desired fertility can be successfully integrated into behavioural models. But on the whole, its explanatory power was weak, and it was concluded that the independent use of this variable does not significantly improve on models which relate fertility to socio-economic variables directly.     

Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policies—The Cases of Spain and Norway

This article analyzes the relationship between family policies focused on childcare for children under the age of three and fertility levels. In the current context of very low European fertility, it is important to understand whether public support for families can help increase fertility or if, on the contrary, existing fertility levels are the exact reflection of the reproductive desires of families, regardless of the family-support of the policies that may exist in each country. This analysis was carried out through a stochastic dynamic mathematical model that incorporates both demographic variables and family policy variables. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on Spain and Norway, two countries that have very different models of family policies. This sensitivity analysis allows establishing a relationship between the existing family policies and the total fertility rate and also the expected evolution of fertility rates in the future, if the current family policies remain constant. The results showed that the models which lead to an increase in fertility are those which are most generous and which also incorporate a gender perspective, so they allow the identification of good practices and maximum levels of policy efficiency in regards to different objectives such as increase fertility and advances towards gender equality. By contrast, models with erratic and insufficient support clearly contribute to maintaining fertility at very low levels and perpetuate unequal gender relationships. There is, therefore, space for state agency to develop more effective public policies in both dimensions.

     

The determinants of marital fertility in the united states, 1968–1970: Inferences from a dynamic model

Criticizing the static assumptions of previous socioeconomic and microeconomic models of marital fertility, particularly regarding the sequential and stochastic facets of family building, this paper advocates a dynamic perspective. Of particular concern is the assumption of equilibrium family size made by those who employ the static perspective. The equilibrium family size assumption implies that the parameters relating social and economic variables to fertility will be similar for all births, regardless of order. To test this assumption of constancy, a two-equation model of fertility and female employment is introduced. Contrary to the static perspective’s implication of constant effects, substantial parity differences in the estimates of parameters for both equations are reported, as are several differences between blacks and whites. On the basis of this evidence, I conclude that the static decision-making framework should be replaced by a dynamic approach to marital fertility.     

The fertility of teachers in England and Wales

Data on the fertility of teachers in grant earning schools in England and Wales were collected in 1955 as part of a general survey into the social characteristics of teachers. The survey was financed by the Nuffield Foundation with a contribution from the Population Investigation Committee. A subsequent article will discuss some possible determinants of fertility and in particular the interrelationship between social mobility and fertility. The present note describes changes in cohort fertility of teachers since 1915 and compares average family size with that of other sections of the population. The average number of children per married male teacher declined from 1.81 for the pre-1920 cohort to 1.47 for 1930–34. Segmental data after 1935 indicate a rise to approximately 2 children per family. Comparison with the Family Census suggests that the number of children of teachers is between 10% and 20% below that of all professions combined when the age at marriage of the wife is taken into account.     

Natural resource collection and desired family size: a longitudinal test of environment-population theories

Theories relating the changing environment to human fertility predict that declining natural resources may actually increase the demand for children. Unfortunately, most previous empirical studies have been limited to cross-sectional designs that limit our ability to understand links between processes that change over time. We take advantage of longitudinal measurement spanning more than a decade of change in the natural environment, household agricultural behaviors, and individual fertility preferences to reexamine this question. Using fixed effect models, we find that women experiencing increasing time required to collect firewood to heat and cook or fodder to feed animals (the dominant needs for natural resources in this setting) increased their desired family size, even as many other macro-level changes have reduced desired family size. In contrast to previous, cross-sectional studies, we find no evidence of such a relationship for men. Our findings regarding time spent collecting firewood are also new. These results support the “vicious circle” perspective and economic theories of fertility pointing to the value of children for household labor. This feedback from natural resource constraint to increased fertility is an important mechanism for understanding long-term environmental change.     

Toward a general theory of fertility: A causal modeling approach

A general theory of fertility is derived hypothesizing that the demand for children is primarily an outcome of social psychological processes within the family, subject to certain socioeconomic constraints. Two broad social psychological processes are posited as determinants of fertility. The first suggests that the attitudes or tastes of family members influence the demand for children. The second maintains that the nature of the husband-wife interaction (in terms of power, conflict, decision making, and marital satisfaction) determines family size. Socioeconomic variables, in the form of the normative social structure and social stratification, and economic constraints, such as income and price, are hypothesized to influence fertility through their impact on social psychological processes within the family. The overall theory is tested on two independent samples—one in Ankara, Turkey, the second in Mexico City, Mexico—using a structural equation methodology.     

The relationship of family planning to savings and consumption in Taiwan

This study relates fertility behavior to modern economic behavior, namely, saving and consumption of modern durables, for a sample of couples in Taiwan. It uses only couples who say they want no more children, and these couples are further classified by current use of contraception and by whether or not they already had excess fertility. Couples who are successful fertility planners, i.e., those who have no unwanted children and are current users of contraception, are distinctive with regard to modern economic behavior as compared to couples who do not use contraception or have excess fertility. Successful planners are more likely to save and to have more modern durables; these differentials remain when adjustments are made for the effects of family income, wife’s age, wife’s education, and duration of marriage. It seems that the kind of planning behavior which enables a couple to successfully plan their family size also enables them to manage their economic affairs so that they can save and enjoy more modern consumption goods.     

Marital dissolution,remarriage, and childbearing

Earlier models of fertility hypothesize that marital dissolution and remarriage influence subsequent childbearing. This issue is examined by comparing the fertility of those in disrupted marriages with that of those in stable marriages. The results indicate that, by transferring women into a nonmarried status, marital dissolution decreases childbearing. The data also suggest that discord reduces fertility even before separation occurs—separated women had reduced fertility during the two years just before separation. It was found that marital dissolution without remarriage operates to truncate childbearing, thus decreasing family size. Dissolution followed by remarriage, however, lengthens the childbearing span of whites and has no influence on average family size; remarrying white women are able to make up for the childbearing lost between marriages. For nonwhites, we found that dissolution and remarriage increase the average time to childbirth, but, even more importantly, these events greatly decrease the number of children born.     

Cheaper by the dozen? The marginal time costs of children in the Philippines

The important relationship between fertility rates and economic development has prompted many researchers to try and better understand the determinants of family size. It has repeatedly been shown that the costs of children, both direct and indirect, are one of the most important determinants of fertility, exerting a significantly negative effect on birth rates in both developed and developing countries. Many studies which investigate the relationship between the costs of children and family size have assumed that these costs do not vary with parity. However, there is substantial evidence that the marginal costs of children are not constant but decrease with birth order in developed countries. In this paper, the hypothesis that there are diminishing marginal time costs of children is tested using household data from the developing country setting of the Philippines. By examining the determinants of additional time spent in childcare before and after the birth of a child, it is found that the marginal time costs are not the same across households of various sizes. Firstborn children cost significantly more in terms of additional mother's time than children of higher birth orders. In addition, the time costs of the second child are found to be significantly greater than those of the third child. However, these economies of scale in childcare are limited and do not extend beyond three children. The effect of birth spacing on the marginal time costs of children is also found to be significant.     

Age,biological factors,and socioeconomic determinants of fertility: A new measure of cumulative fertility for use in the empirical analysis of family size

To influence the number of children ever born to a woman, socioeconomic variables must operate through behavioral and biological mechanisms such as the age at marriage, the level of fertility in the absence of deliberate fertility control, and the level of control exerted to reduce fertility within marriage. In this paper, we propose a new measure of cumulative fertility which is standardized for the age-fecundity relationship and for exposure to the risk of conception associated with duration of marriage. A simple model of fertility behavior which incorporates some of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic factors may affect fertility is developed and applied to data from the United States to demonstrate the properties of alternative measures of family size. The results indicate that use of the new measure allows more precise estimates of socioeconomic fertility relationships than would be obtained with children ever born or by sample stratification.     

Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970–2002

Cross‐nationally, observed fertility is well below mean levels of reported ideal family size and also usually well below survey respondents' fertility desires and intentions. The United States is an exception. In this article we: (1) discuss the importance of fertility ideals and intentions for understanding observed fertility levels, (2) propose a model that can account for variable attitude‐behavior consistency, and (3) use this model as a framework to examine trends in American women's fertility ideals, intentions, and actual fertility. Our study uses data from the General Social Surveys and the Current Population Surveys. We ask whether preferences and intentions for moderate family sizes have eroded with time. The answer is remarkably clear: the dominant American ideals and intentions are for two or three children, and these preferences have persisted across the last three decades. The unusual aggregate correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States is explained by an apparent offsetting of factors that increase/decrease fertility relative to intentions.     

Family structure and and fertility behavior in Taiwan

The present analysis is based on the 1990 Taiwan Human Resources Survey to study the relationships between family structure, women's complete fertility and birth spacing. Imputed family size, as measured by either the ideal number of children expressed by a married woman or the number of actual surviving children whichever is larger, is used as a proxy of a woman's complete fertility. The results indicate a majority of married couples in Taiwan begin married life living with the husband's parents and later move out to establish a nuclear unit. This limited experience in the extended family exerts an upward pressure on imputed family size even when other relevant variables are statistically controlled. Further, the effect of living with the husband's parents on shorter duration of birth spacing is only limited to the time when the parents provide free child- care for married couples.     

On the tempo of childbearing in England and Wales

Abstract The paper describes a computerized model developed to simulate the fertility of a hypothetical marriage cohort in a closed population. The model was applied to England and Wales fertility data of marriage cohorts of the years 1951 to 1970. For each of these cohorts, the computer was programmed to construct five series of tables showing birth-order probabilities, family size frequency distribution, mean length of intervals between marriage and successive births, parity progression ratios and mean family sizes of fertile women. The results showed that the fertility of the cohorts of women who married between the middle 1950s and the early 1960s was character ized by a declining trend in the frequency of childlessness and by a dramatic increase in the proportion of marriages with two or more children. Since 1964 or so, there has been a downward trend in duration-specific birth-order probabilities. The analysis suggests that the recent drop in fertility may well prove to be the effect of an upward shift in the timing of births as well as a fall in completed fertility.     

A computer model of family building based on expected values

A computerized probability model of family building is described. Called FERMOD, the model is designed to follow the changing distribution of children ever born and birth intervals of a large homogeneous population as it moves through the reproductive period. Use of the model presupposes assumptions about such factors as risks of fetal wastage, lengths of pregnancy, and postdelivery amenorrhea conditional to outcome of pregnancy, length of reproductive period, fecundability, desired family size, preferred birth spacing!, and effectiveness of contraception. Use of FERMOD is illustrated in a limited application to United States fertility. Relations to other models are briefly discussed.     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.     

禀赋、场域与中国妇女生育意愿研究

利用2006年中国健康营养调查(CHNS)数据,构建模型,对中国18～52岁妇女的意愿生育决策、生育强度及其影响因素进行实证分析。在众多因素中,家庭已有孩子构成、能力禀赋、资本禀赋对妇女生育意愿有着显著影响,技术禀赋对妇女再生育的意愿和强度有重要影响。同时,将划分生育场域边界的地区变量纳入模型,显示不同区域间妇女的生育意愿存在较大差别,中西部地区妇女的生育意愿明显高于东北部地区;妇女禀赋条件越改善、禀赋水平越高、生育场域越优化,其生育意愿、生育强度越低,生育行为越趋理性。未来开展人口和计划生育工作,制定、调整人口和计划生育政策,应该对此予以充分考虑。