The Relation of Migration to Changing Household Headship Patterns in China, 1982–1987

The investigation of fertility change can involve the consideration of the results of micro-level empirical studies in the context of an economic theory of family formation. In particular, a change in the observable statistics can then be related to a change in behaviour, or factors influencing behaviour. The analysis of this relationship is hindered, however, by its complexity and by the large number of stochastic variables present. It is argued that an essential aid to such an analysis is the use of a model suitable for simulation. Here, we present such a model and illustrate possible applications with various experiments.     

Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform

Options for reforming unfunded public pension schemes that are now being discussed all share the feature that the burden induced by demographic change would be shifted towards presently living and away from unborn generations. Existing models of the political economy of pension reform can not explain why such reform options are being discussed at all. We present an alternative model in which the possibility of evasion of workers from payment of social security taxes is taken into account by modelling a labor supply function. It turns out that the burden of demographic change may fall completely or at least predominantly on the pensioners. Thus this type of model can much better explain recent trends in legislature on unfunded public pension systems in industrial democracies. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999     

Some observations on the economic framework for fertility analysis

Abstract The economic framework for fertility analysis, first expounded in detail by Gary S. Becker(1), has attracted considerable attention among demographers. While some writers have enthusiastically endorsed the model, others have rejected it outright(3). A few attempts have also recently been made by some writers to modify or refine some of the concepts employed, and/or to change the modes of treatment of some of the factors in the original model. Unfortunately, several major objections levelled against the model still remain. It also remains to be examined whether the criticisms can be met without violating the principles and strategies espoused by economists. I believe (1) that most of the objections advanced against the model can be met by suitably modifying it, and (2) that the required modifications can be effected by employing strategies and conceptual schemes similar to those used in the demand analysis of consumer behaviour. The objective of this paper is to expound this belief. There is a strong possibility that after modification a healthy new theory will emerge which may prove useful in guiding research, as well as help to bring together different empirical findings in the literature, or to serve as a 'binder' for the theoretical speculations advanced by many research workers.     

Adapting Fertility Exposure Analysis to the Study of Fertility Change

Fertility exposure analysis was developed recently by Hobcraft and Little in order to evaluate the relative importance of the various proximate determinants upon levels of current fertility. In the present paper we extend the analysis to the study of changes in fertility between two cross-sectional surveys. We show how to express fertility change as a product of terms which represent changes in the proximate determinants. The model of change is adapted to a log-linear framework, in which the proximate determinants on the one hand, and socio-economic variables such as education, on the other, are considered together. A few simplifications of the method are also suggested so that fewer demands are made on data. The model and its possible interpretations are illustrated with pairs of surveys from Pakistan and Mexico. In each pair, one survey was part of the WFS programme and the other was very similar but conducted five years later.     

Social Indicators and Voting: The Turkish Case

The aim of this article is to set out the various explanations of voting behaviour in Turkey. Its principal intellectual motivation is to present the political and social indicators that shape voting in such a way as to explain how an activity which is so crucial for democratic life is also based upon voters’ values and surrounding political context. Although the number of empirical work on voting behaviour in Turkey is increasing there is a considerable room for testing alternative variables and research tools in order to expand the academic knowledge on the problematic. Findings ratified that the political and personal values coupled with the other social factors have considerable impact on the voting behaviour in Turkey. Additionally this research also proved that these factors work differently for the competing political parties. Hence the contribution of this study is the introduction of an explicit analysis on the impact of different social and political factors that are salient in voting behaviour and magnitudes of these factors on different political parties by using a public database. Thus this study will not only uncover the relevancy of the variables in the literature for Turkish voters but also it will highlight the meaning and significance of these factors for different political parties.     

Consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour: A conceptual model

Abstract The consistency (or lack of it) between attitude and behaviour has been a controversial issue in social psychology for the past several decades,(1) and more recently has become a focus of considerable controversy in the field of population studies.(2) In accordance with Freedman, Hermalin and Chang,(3)it is argued here that this controversy will not be resolved by theoretical discussions, and evidence is needed from many countries at several time points to resolve this issue. This paper presents evidence on consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour from survey data from Venezuela and, based upon analysis of the present data, suggests a conceptual model for the study of consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour.     

Consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour: A conceptual model

The consistency (or lack of it) between attitude and behaviour has been a controversial issue in social psychology for the past several decades,¹ and more recently has become a focus of considerable controversy in the field of population studies.² In accordance with Freedman, Hermalin and Chang,³it is argued here that this controversy will not be resolved by theoretical discussions, and evidence is needed from many countries at several time points to resolve this issue. This paper presents evidence on consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour from survey data from Venezuela and, based upon analysis of the present data, suggests a conceptual model for the study of consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour.     

Family-building in a Canadian City: An analysis of the timing and spacing of pregnancies

Conjugal and maternity histories collected in an Ottawa Survey permit a cohort analysis of fertility change through an examination of pregnancy intervals. The paper discusses the use of life-table techniques to overcome specified censoring biases. Inter-generational changes in fertility behaviour are identified and differences at higher parities, and between the youngest and other cohorts at parity zero are noted. Finally, a relationship is established between the order of a birth interval and its duration.     

Construct Validity of Unsupportive Attributional Style: The Impact of Life Outcome Controllability

Quality of life for individuals and their communities is greatly affected by the degree of altruism expressed when misfortune occurs. The present study investigated the construct validity of an individual differences variable (i.e., unsupportive attributional style) linked to helping behaviour. Unsupportive attributional style (i.e., the tendency to view others' misfortunes as controllable by the victims) is assessed across a number of negative life outcomes of others using the Reasons for Misfortune Questionnaire (RMQ). Modest evidence of unsupportive attributional style at an intermediate level of situation specificity suggested an empirical examination of the situational referents (negative life outcomes of others) of the construct. The present study revealed large variation in the perceived causal controllability of the negative life outcomes on the RMQ. Confirmatory factor analysis of RMQ data (N = 705) revealed that an excellent fit was provided by an attributional style model that included controllable and uncontrollable situation-types. Thus, when perceived controllability of the negative life outcomes of others was included in the definition of unsupportive attributional style, the estimation of individual differences in controllability perceptions was refined considerably. By linking empirically the situational referents for unsupportive attributional style to the construct definition, the present findings demonstrated the ongoing nature of the process of construct validation. It is clear from the present findings that if systematic variation in the situational referents of attributional styles is unaccounted for in construct definition, individual differences in controllability perceptions (i.e., attributional style) will be underestimated.     

Structural Change in Life Cycle Fertility During the Fertility Transition: France Before and After the Revolution of 1789

This paper explores the hypothesis that the fertility transition in France entailed a structural change in behaviour from natural to controlled fertility. We define the hypothesis in terms of an empirically estimable model of lifetime fertility. The model produces separate estimates of the three main proximate determinants: the hazard rate of conception for ovulating women, the timing of ovulation resumption after a birth, and permanent sterility. Fertility control is defined as responsiveness of the conception hazard to number of surviving children. We demonstrate key features of the model by simulated family histories. The historical application provides support for the transition hypothesis in the south of France, and mixed results for the north. We also find strong evidence of persistent couple-specific heterogeneity even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in fecundability. We suggest how future research might improve the model.     

Wählen als Gruppenerfahrung?

Lazarsfeld et al. have formulated a voting model, which is based on the influences of group embedding. This essentially means that people adapt their voting behaviour according to their social embeddings. However, the individualisation thesis has recently claimed that group embeddings have become looser and more often contradictory. Can the empiric findings of Lazarsfeld therefore still be valid? This analysis, which is based on a panel study on the Styrian Local Elections 2000, sets out to test the applicability of this voting model. It can be shown clearly, that people are still more likely to vote for the parties, which are popular within their social surroundings. However, when put under cross pressures, people tend to change their party preferences, whereas relevant cross pressures are not only resulting from social embeddings, but also from the evaluation of politicians, issues and so on.     

Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility: A test using indian microdata

In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children's death is not the only link between fertility decision and children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed. Received: 20 August 1998/Accepted: 19 July 1999     

Is Personality Fixed? Personality Changes as Much as “Variable” Economic Factors and More Strongly Predicts Changes to Life Satisfaction

Personality is the strongest and most consistent cross-sectional predictor of high subjective well-being. Less predictive economic factors, such as higher income or improved job status, are often the focus of applied subjective well-being research due to a perception that they can change whereas personality cannot. As such there has been limited investigation into personality change and how such changes might bring about higher well-being. In a longitudinal analysis of 8625 individuals we examine Big Five personality measures at two time points to determine whether an individual’s personality changes and also the extent to which such changes in personality can predict changes in life satisfaction. We find that personality changes at least as much as economic factors and relates much more strongly to changes in life satisfaction. Our results therefore suggest that personality can change and that such change is important and meaningful. Our findings may help inform policy debate over how best to help individuals and nations improve their well-being.     

总和生育率影响因素实证研究

中国的计划政策三十多年的实施对控制人口数量起了积极的作用,也使中国人口结构和人口素质发生了巨大变化。本文通过对世界109个国家的经济、社会文化和其他数据共20项进行回归分析,建立了国家总和生育率的线形回归模型,并根据该模型估计出当前中国在无计划生育条件下的总和生育率。以此研究目前计划生育政策对我国总和生育率的影响,针对严峻的人口问题提出了相应政策建议。     

Measuring the Success of Sustainable Development Indices in Terms of Reporting by the Global Press

A variety of indices have been applied to the performance of nation states, both for research and as aids to help guide policy and intervention. While the literature on indices is extensive, the focus to date has been almost entirely on technical issues of index creation. However the success of an index is arguably related at least in part to the use of that index by policy makers and managers. While cause-effect can be difficult to determine, one approach is to measure ‘success’ in terms of the reporting of indices by an intermediary group such as the media, and this paper assesses the reporting of 24 indices by newspapers worldwide until 2012. The results suggest that index success is influenced by a number of factors, including the time it has existed, its focus, extent and quality of publicity, adaptability in terms of the scope for others to change the content and methodology of the index and resonance in terms of the match with ideas/culture/behaviour of people. The paper makes a case for a new research field that seeks to investigate the meaning and factors involved in ‘success’ of indices and how these should help with index development.     

A study of natural populations of the celery leaf-minerPhilophylla heraclei L. (Diptera, Tephritidae)

Summary The study of the population dynamics of the celery leaf-miner,Philophylla heraclei, must take into account the fact that the host-plant is not present permanently and that it develops between the two annual generations of the insect. This development affects in particular the quality and quantity of the leaves fed upon by the mining larvae. It is possible to know the numerical change of the populations from one annual generation to the next (bivoltine insect) and from one year to the next by counting the populations in the various larval instars, responsible for the injury caused to celery. An accurate method of counting of larval numbers, taking into account their change parallel with that of the host-plant, is described in this text. It makes it possible to know with accuracy the duration and importance of the infestations in relation to external factors and to factors inherent to the host-plant itself. Certain traits of larval behaviour, particularly the transfer of a larva from its original mine to a secondary mine as a result of food shortage can thus be established and estimated quantitatively.     

A cost-benefit model of rural to urban migration in Taiwan

Abstract Migration is a form of human behaviour which has lent itself to careful measurement for a relatively long period of time. In 1885 Ravenstein set forth certain empirical laws concerning the relationship of migration to age and distance which have held up to the present. Since then an abundance of migration data has enabled social scientists to develop more precise models relating the volume or rate of migration to characteristics of the migrants or of the areas of origin and destination. Prominent among these models are the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, a gravity type model including wage rates and unemployment rates developed by Lowry, and the Cornell mobility model.     

Divorce,homemaker pensions and lifecycle analysis

The paper addresses aspects of life cycle demographic analysis in three ways. First, the paper describes a methodological innovation-essentially a generalization of multi-state life table techniques using a newly developed monte carlo microsimulation model, DEMOGEN. Second, the DEMOGEN model is applied to an analysis of divorce behaviour. This analysis shows, among other things, that higher divorce rates are not necessarily associated with more time spent by children growing up in lone-parent families. Finally, the DEMOGEN model is used to assess the impact of a major public pension reform option - the inclusion of homemakers under the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans. This latter analysis includes estimates of overall costs and distributional impacts by lifetime income and demographic status.This paper is a work about fiction rather than a work of fiction. Any similarity between the events described here and real family life histories is not a pure and sublime coincidence but rather the result of deliberate forethought. (adapted by M.B. Fiering, 1967)     

Study on Standard of Population Aging

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and"getting old before getting rich"in developing countries indicate that f luctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change?What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change?Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model.The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change.However,sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population.The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not a sustainable system,Gradually raising the retirement age and Long-term stability in replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or countries,but the latter is more urgent.     

The Structure of Pregnancy Intervals by Planning Status

Measures of pregnancy intervals are reported for data from the 1975 National Fertility Study in the United States. The structure of such intervals is aggregated into its components by planning status. A measurement model is devised to infer from a survival function some dimensions of the initial distribution of respondents by propensity to experience the event in question. It is adaptable to the study of reproductive intention as well as fecundability and contraceptive effectiveness. The model is applied to the study of the dependence of such behaviour in a given interval on the planning status of the previous pregnancy. Planning status is sequentially well-ordered. Those previously successful with contraceptive use are less likely to fail than those who had previously failed; those who had previously used contraception, whether successful or not, are less likely to fail than those who had not previously used. The credibility of the findings is prejudiced less by the form of model than by the reliability of the basic data.