Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Birth control and regional differentials in the Soviet Union

Abstract Following the territorial division pointed out by Urlanis into those parts of the Soviet Union where birth control is practised and where it is not as widespread, it is possible to ascertain the importance of different factors bearing on fertility within each region. This study was based on data obtained from the 1959 USSR Census of Population including information on social and demographic characteristics of the urban and rural populations for over 150 political-administrative areas. In Central Asia, Azerbaidjan and Armenia, outside the region of birth control, the level of fertility depends mainly on the proportion of women who are married and also on their social position measured by the discrepancy in the educational status of men and women. In contrast, the birth control region of a relatively low level of fertility in urban areas, for example, displays the characteristic of women's educational achievement most strongly associated with the child-woman ratio. Except for the rural areas in this region, the present study fails to support the popular hypothesis that economic dependency of women is directly related to fertility.     

The impact of urbanization and geographical dispersion on the linguistic russification of soviet nationalities

This paper tests a set of hypotheses about the impact of urbanization and geographical mobility on the linguistic Russification of 46 Soviet nationalities. The hypotheses are based on theoretical literature regarding the differing career aspirations of urban and rural residents, Soviet policies of providing native-language cultural facilities to non-Russian groups, and the probable levels of contact between non-Russians and Russians in specific residential settings. The data are aggregate data on place of residence, nationality, and native language derived from the 1959 Soviet Census. It is shown that (a) both urbanization and geographical dispersion have substantial Russificatory effects, (b) geographical dispersion (residence outside the official national area of the group) alone has a stronger impact on Russification than does urban residence, and (c) residence inside the official national territory partially suppresses what might otherwise be an even stronger Russificatory effect of urbanization, so that (d) urban residence and residence outside the official national area interact to produce a higher level of Russification than one might predict on the basis of the simple additive effects of urban and outside residence. It is also shown that males are more highly Russified than females in all of the residential settings examined but that these differences are quite small, especially for urbanites and residents outside the official national area.     

The centenarian question and old-age mortality in the Soviet Union, 1959–1970

Are claims of extraordinarily low mortality levels in the USSR justifiable? Applying a recently developed methodology appropriate for nonstable populations to 1959 and 1970 census data from the Soviet Union, we find that mortality is generally understated for the country as a whole and for various regions and republics. This is particularly so for the republics composing the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. Age overstatement appears to be extremely pronounced in the oldest segments of the population. Using the new methodology, we can derive the age distribution that is uniquely implied by a given life table and a set of age-specific rates of growth obtained from two censuses. When we use the official Soviet life tables in this procedure, we find that the reported number of centenarians is at least 28.9 percent overstated for males and 7.5 percent for females. If one were to posit that Soviet mortality during 1959 to 1970 was, in fact, no better than the Swedish mortality experience during roughly the same time period, then the true number of centenarians could be no more than 2 percent of that reported.     

International migration and labor force participation of married women

A focal issue in international immigration research has been immigration adaptation and assimilation and especially absorption and integration of immigrants into labor force roles. Nevertheless, such research has largely been focused on immigrant men, neglecting the systematic examination of labor force participation among immigrant women. This research is focused on the correlates of economic activity among immigrant and native born Jewish, urban, married females aged 18–54 in Israel. The specific objectives of the investigation are: (1) the impact of education, socioeconomic status, familial child care burdens, and ethnic background on the economic activity of native-born and immigrant, married women; and (2) to evaluate the extent to which the above patterns vary by veterancy and age. The data for this analysis are drawn from Israel's quarterly labor force survey of 6,000 families for 1970 and 1971. Education, socioeconomic status, ethnic origin, and child care burden were all found to have some effect on women's labor force participation; however, the pattern of effect was different for younger and older women and varied by veterancy status. Indications can be found in the data that age at immigration, or in other words the point in the women's life cycle at which immigration occurs, makes a difference in the type and strength of effect of immigration on labor force participation.Requests for reprints should be directed to Moshe Hartman, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, Utah 84322.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians.

In essence, the life table function e₀ was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960.

Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Fertility and economic dependency of Soviet women

The study addresses itself to the question: If it can be shown that economic dependency of women is not associated with fertility, then what are the variables that favor their abstention from work outside home? Results based on an extensive statistical analysis of Soviet data bring into focus new evidence. It was found thateconomic dependency of women is associated with themarriage differential between sexes. This relationship is especially evident in the regions where birth rates are of a low order. In the geographic areas where fertility is high, the percentage of economically inactive women increases with an increase in the urban population portion in an administrative area. Five principal components of urbanization have been identified: (1) educational level, (2) increasing rates of marriage, (3) divorce, (4) equal educational status of women as compared with men, and (5) the rising proportion of economically dependent women in the 16–54 age span. Most of the data are based on the 1959 Census and vital statistics by administrative areas for the U. S. S. R. For analytic purposes these were sorted into 30 areas of low birth rates, 62 areas with moderate rates, and 48 administrative areas corresponding to the high-fertility region in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and in several autonomous non-Slav republics.     

Reconstruction of fertility trends for the female population of the U.S.S.R

Abstract The article describes fertility trends among Soviet women during the past 40 years as compared to American women during the same period of time. Period-specific fertility rates were arrived at by relating the annual total of live births to a pattern of age-specific fertility rates estimated for each year and also to the number of women for each single year of age. These rates were then appropriately re-arranged and compressed into five-year age groups to form a series of cohort-specific fertility rates. The findings rest on somewhat conjectural estimates of live births and numbers of women in the U.S.S.R., some of which were originally prepared before the 1959 Soviet census. The tentative evidence shows that changes in the period-specific fertility of Soviet women were far more irregular and dramatic in the past, than among American women. After World War II these rates dropped in the U.S.S.R. below those of the United States, except for women over 30 years of age. On the other hand, the cohort-specific rates of Soviet women, although declining from one cohort to the next, at present show their magnitude in the cumulative series for older ages to be marked by higher than among American women. This experimental investigation of fertility in the Soviet Union makes no claim to high standards of accuracy and validity. Its intended purpose is to stress the desirability of shifting emphasis from the temporal and prognostic type of study, characteristic of present-day demographic research about the U.S.S.R., to the generational and historical approach.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

Abstract In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians. In essence, the life table function e(0) was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960. Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Asia's population and development in retrospect and prospect

By 1989 Asia's population will reach 3 billion. That Asia's countries can change the course of population development has been shown by China, whose population growth rate has decreased to 1.2%. 58% of the world's population in 1985 was Asian, and 53% of it was concentrated in 11 Asian countries, of which 37.6% was accounted for by India and China. Asia's population density is 3 times the world average, and the number of persons sustained by a square kilometer of land in Asia is 2.5 times the world average. Asia's population is young (median age 20.3), which means a high dependency burden, a large number of women of childbearing age, and low quality of life, as measured by infant mortality, life expectancy, and literacy. Rapid population growth ensures a low rate of development. Asia's goals are to achieve a 1% growth rate by year 2000, zero population growth and replacement level by 2015 for East Asia and 2020 for South Asia. The World Bank estimates that Asia's population will not stabilize until the end of the 21st century, by which time it will have reached 6 billion. Asia must find a way of achieving both population control and economic development. 5 recommendations are made to the Asian Forum of Parliamentarians on Population and Development (AFPPD): 1) that the AFPPD sponsor the activities of "the Day of 3 billion"; 2) that seminars and conferences on population be held among Asian nations; 3) that high-fertility countries adopt late marriages, few births, and programs for maternal and child health; 4) that organizations for family planning be strengthened and given the resources to upgrade the status of women; and 5) that international cooperation in the area of population be intensified.     

彝族人口结构特征分析--基于第六次人口普查数据分析

本文主要利用第六次人口普查资料,对彝族的人口规模和年龄结构、受教育程度、婚姻和生育状况以及职业行业情况,进行分性别、分民族的比较研究。研究发现彝族人口规模呈现阶段性增长,总抚养比比较高,人口负担重;受教育程度低,且呈现性别和民族上的差异;从婚姻家庭状况来看,彝族女性更倾向于与汉族通婚,在生育上重男轻女现象依然很严重;从职业上看,彝族主要从事第一产业,而第二和第三产业发展不足,远远落后汉族地区;在未工作人口中,女性料理家务的比例依然较高,传统的性别角色分工观念依然根深蒂固。     

Immigration and status exchange in Australia and the United States

This paper evaluates the status exchange hypothesis for Australia and the United States, two Anglophone nations with long immigration traditions whose admission regimes place different emphases on skills. Using log-linear methods, we demonstrate that foreign-born spouses trade educational credentials via marriage with natives in both Australian and U.S. marriage markets and, moreover, that nativity is a more salient marriage barrier for men than for women. With some exceptions, immigrant spouses in mixed nativity couples are better educated than native spouses in same nativity couples, but status exchange is more prevalent among the less-educated spouses in both countries. Support for the status exchange hypothesis is somewhat weaker in Australia partly because of lower average levels of education compared with the United States and partly because of the less sharply defined educational hierarchy at the postsecondary level.     

The Determinants of the Duration of Postpartum Sexual Abstinence in West Africa: A Multilevel Analysis

The question of how postpartum sexual abstinence responds to social change in West Africa is important because declines in the practice could increase fertility levels and worsen child and maternal health. This study uses data from the late 1970s in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Cameroon to examine effects of modernization and women’s status on the length of abstinence. The results show that modernization and female status should be associated with declines in abstinence, which could lead to an increase in fertility and deterioration in maternal and child health.     

Cohort size and age-specific suicide rates: A contingent relationship

Trends in age-specific suicide rates relate to debates about the consequences of population aging and changes in cohort size for social well-being. Easterlin argues that large cohort size increases suicide rates by reducing relative income; Preston claims that suicide rates fall in large cohorts with high levels of political and social power. To integrate these competing arguments, this paper uses aggregate data on 18 high-income nations from 1953 to 1986 to demonstrate that the direction and strength of the relationship between cohort size and suicide depend on (1) age of the cohort, (2) gender, (3) national context, and (4) time period. The results show that large cohort size raises suicide for the young and middle-aged, but reduces it for the elderly. Also, the effects of cohort size prove stronger for men than for women, for nations with less collectivist institutions than for nations with more collectivist institutions, and for the 1950s and 1960s than for the 1970s and 1980s.     

Drought and disproportionate disease: an investigation of gendered vulnerabilities to HIV/AIDS in less-developed nations

Environmental change and climate-related disasters are an under-examined factor impacting women’s health, globally. Drawing on ecofeminist theory, we conduct analyses examining if the HIV burden among women is higher in nations that experience suffering from droughts. Specifically, we posit that droughts, which typically impact more people and for greater lengths of time than other climate-related disasters, have a unique impact on women’s vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. We use a cross-national dataset of less-developed countries and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to explore and compare relationships between suffering from drought and total HIV prevalence and suffering from drought and women’s proportion of HIV cases. Overall, the results demonstrate that while droughts have an inconsistent impact on total HIV prevalence, suffering from drought significantly increases the proportion of HIV cases among women in comparison to men, net of the impact of common economic, social, cultural, and political predictors. The findings suggest that suffering from drought differentially impacts women’s health in less-developed countries, where a number of mechanisms, such as transactional sex or displacement, likely underlie the associations identified.

     

Development Trends in Islamic Societies: From Collective Wishes to Concerted Actions

Today, approximately one-fourth of the world’s population includes 1,620 million persons who are part of the expanding Islamic Ummah. Muslims are found in large numbers in all regions of the world but are concentrated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and selected successor states to the former Soviet Union. Despite the obvious wealth of some Islamic nations most Muslims live under conditions of poverty, joblessness, illiteracy, ill health, social and political unrest and, in some regions, religious extremism. Using the extensively pre-tested Weighted Index of Social Progress, this paper reports a 40-year time series analysis of the nature, extent, and pace of social change that is taking place within 53 of the 57 member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Data are reported at four levels of analysis. Selected data also are reported for both the OIC-as-a-whole and for the world-as-a-whole. The present analysis offers a sometimes bleak, but generally optimistic, picture of the dramatic differences that characterize development patterns within Islamic countries, subregions, and regions. Particular attention is given to: (a) the legacy of colonialism that persisted for some OIC states until as recently as 1991; (b) the recurrent social unrest that continues to characterize development in many Islamic states, e.g., the “Arab Spring” (Vision of Humanity 2012); (c) the presence or absence of marketable natural and human resources; and, (d) the significant contributions being made to the development of Islamic countries by the United Nations’ Millennium Development Campaign (United Nations 2005) and the OIC’s Ten-Year Programme of Action (OIC 2005). However, the important social gains reported in this paper for some countries and geographic regions remain highly variable, potentially reversible, unless the collective wishes of Islamic nations are translated into concerted actions both within OIC member states and the larger world community of nations.     

Gender differences in economic well-being among the elderly of java

With populations aging rapidly in many developing nations, issues of economic dependency among the elderly are of increasing importance. Using data from a 1986 survey of the elderly on Java, Indonesia, I describe gender differences in economic well-being and identify characteristics associated with economic disadvantage. At both the individual and the household level, older women have fewer resources than older men. Even within categories of support (work income and remittances), women have lower levels of well-being. Gender differences in household-level economic well-being are due primarily to differences in household structure and in levels of skills. Gender differences in individual receipts (from all sources) are more complicated, but can be understood more clearly with reference to gender differences in skills levels (literacy, language, job skills), current work status and authority, and domestic authority.     

The Emergence of a Positive Relation Between Education and Third Birth Rates in Norway with Supportive Evidence from the United States

Data derived from the Central Population Register of Norway and the 1988 National Survey of Families and Households show a positive association between mothers' educational level and rates of third births. Norwegian women who had a second birth during the late 1970s and had received more than 12 years of schooling gave birth to a third child more frequently than women who had only received the minimum compulsory education. Similar results were obtained for American women who had a second birth during the 1970s. Attempts to explain this positive effect of education in terms of economic status, or a differential impact of commitment to work by the mothers, have failed. It also seems that trends and variations in selection to parity 2 play a minor role.