A reply to W. H. James

The objection of W. H. James to my computation on p. 330, for the sample of Créteil, is valid. For reasons that are developed elsewhere in my paper, the current pregnancy of any woman was omitted in the elaboration of Table 6. Therefore, in order to derive continuation rates, we must re-include this pregnancy in each individual pregnancy history. Since women whose previous pregnancies ended in induced abortions had been excluded, we must do the same for women whose current pregnancy was interrupted by an induced abortion.     

A reply to W. H. James

Abstract The objection of W. H. James to my computation on p. 330, for the sample of Créteil, is valid. For reasons that are developed elsewhere in my paper, the current pregnancy of any woman was omitted in the elaboration of Table 6. Therefore, in order to derive continuation rates, we must re-include this pregnancy in each individual pregnancy history. Since women whose previous pregnancies ended in induced abortions had been excluded, we must do the same for women whose current pregnancy was interrupted by an induced abortion.     

Competition between spontaneous and induced abortion

Because of their similar timing in pregnancy, spontaneous and induced abortions can be viewed as competing outcomes. Some intended abortion operations are anticipated by earlier miscarriages while some potential miscarriages are forestalled by earlier deliberate interruptions of pregnancy. Previous treatments of this competition are reviewed, and a new analysis is made on the basis of New York data. A simple rule for approximating the reduction in apparent incidence of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion is presented. The effects of nonreporting and misreporting of pregnancy outcomes upon this rule are examined by means of the Perrin-Sheps renewal process. Two expectations are tested on Taiwanese data.

     

Inferences about abortion from foetal mortality data

Abstract In a longitudinal fertility study in Detroit the evidence indicates that the foetal mortality rate in the prospective periods are better reported than in retrospective parts of the fertility histories. While the data do not specifically differentiate between induced abortions and other foetal deaths, the foetal death rates vary in relation to other social and demographic characteristics of the couples in such a way as make induced abortion a consistently plausible explanation of differentials. Foetal mortality rates tend to be high among sub-groups which have the incentive, information and the financial means for induced abortions. If these inferences are correct, it is likely that there is a considerable practice of induced abortion.     

Metal ring - a safe,effective, economical and convenient approach of fertility regulation

A survey of 25,000 women from 1450 villages in China has indicated that the metal ring is a safe, effective, and convenient method of contraception. The continuation rate was 79.3% after 1 year of use and 55.2% after 5 years of use. Factors that were most influential in continuation included insertion after menstruation, insertion during breastfeeding, age at 1st birth, insertion after abortion, level of the health care system, age at insertion, intensity of labor, number of births before insertion, and number of abortions before insertion. The expulsion rate ranged from 11.4-20.7%. The accidental pregnancy rate was 2.4-6.8%. Events such as expulsion and unintended pregnancy showed an association with parity, number of abortions, level of the health care system, and insertion during the breastfeeding period. No serious complications were noted in any of the women fitted wih metal rings.     

An economic analysis of pregnancy resolution in Virginia: specific as to race and residence

This study analyses an economic model of pregnancy resolution; that is, a model of the choice by a pregnant woman to abort her fetus or carry it to term. This analysis, using an analytical model derived from the household utility framework, adds to previous research by presenting race and residence specific estimates of how individual characteristics, history of abortion, and the community-based factors determine women's choices of giving birth vs. abortion. The main data for estimating the model were drawn from the 1984 vital statistics of all induced abortions and live births in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The major findings indicate that low parental education, high maternal age, previous early abortions, and the availability of abortion providers all significantly reduce the probability of choosing the live birth option. Married status and the availability of family planning clinics significantly increase the probability of the live birth option. The findings also suggest that women's choices between abortion and live birth vary substantially with race (white vs. black) and residential (urban vs. rural) location.I am very grateful to Professors Michael Grossman and Theodore Joyce at CUNY/NBER for their advice and comments on earlier version of this paper, to Professors William Hsiao at Harvard and Richard Ernst at USC for their supportive encouragement and insightful comments, and finally to two anonymous referees for their constructive suggestions in revising this analysis.     

A vital statistics-based procedure for estimating conception rates

A method for estimating conception rates, using vital statistics data, is developed and applied to data on five-year age groups of California women for 1971. The approach is deterministic and allocates total exposure time to the known pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and induced abortion. The population at risk is defined to exclude women who are known to be sterile or sexually inactive. Early fetal loss, premarital conception, and contraceptive use are taken into account. Estimates are made of the fecundability which would obtain ifno contraception were used.     

The validity of survey responses on abortion: Evidence from Estonia

This paper presents results of a validation survey of abortion conducted in Tallinn, Estonia in April and May 1992. The sample was drawn from patient records in a maternity hospital. Women who had an abortion in that hospital in 1991 were asked about recent abortions as part of a survey about women’s health. More than 80% of the respondents reported having a recent abortion. Some respondents misreported their abortion as a miscarriage. Moreover, some variation in reporting was associated with respondents’ characteristics. Ethnic Estonians were less likely to report their abortion than were Russians, women over age 40 were less likely to report the abortion than younger women, and women who had the abortion late in the first trimester were less likely to report that abortion. There was some evidence that unmarried women were less likely than married women to report their abortion, and that women who had borne three or more children were less likely to report their abortion than women who had borne fewer children. These differences probably stem from the extent to which pregnancy or abortion is considered stigmatizing for women in different situations.     

Legal abortion and fertility in Maryland, 1960–1971

In the brief period between 1967 and 1971 about one-third of the state legislatures passed abortion reform bills, and in states such as Maryland the number of legal abortions soared. Maryland with its good reporting system for legal abortions, as well as its demographic representativeness, appears to offer an ideal "test situation" for assessing the impact on fertility of the new liberalization. Data on live births and reported induced abortions to residents of the state have been compiled and analyzed in an effort to interpret the recent changes in birth rates. Variables examined include maternal age, birth order, race, and legitimacy.Since 1968, Maryland, along with higher than national average abortion ratios, has experienced a rate of decline in fertility greater than that for the nation. In addition, most of the age and parity groups with high abortion ratios show fertility declines greater than those for groups not using abortion as extensively, Nevertheless, because a number of different factors simultaneously influence fertility, it is hazardous to make accurate cause-and-effect statements on the relationship of any single one of these to the observed change.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Why the rise in adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic in the 1990s?

Despite concern over high pregnancy rates and levels of risk for sexually transmittedinfections, adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic have not changed substantially since the early 1980's, and actually increased during the early to mid 1990s. The present study was undertaken to assess the factors contributing to the recent rise in fertility among Dominican adolescents. The findings suggest that although contraceptive use among adolescents and young adults has increased, this has been more than offset by ominous trends on other determinants of fertility. Among these are declines in mean age at first sex and first marriage/union without a commensurate decline in mean age at first contraceptive use, and stubbornly high discontinuation rates for oral contraceptives andcondoms. There is also some evidence that rates of induced abortion among adolescents may have increased, without which adolescent fertility rates would have been even higher. Demand for children among Dominican adolescents remains strong, suggesting that efforts to reduce the current high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors need to influence social norms in order to be successful.     

Ecology of abortions in the United States since 1973: A replication and extension

This research examined changes in the distribution of abortions among states following the U.S. Supreme Court's 1973 decision invalidating most state laws restricting abortions, and compared that distribution with the distribution that would have been observed if all state abortion rates had been equal, and with the actual and equal rate distributions of divorces. After 1973 the influence of pre-decision abortion laws on the distribution of abortions decreased and the ecological correlations between the characteristics of states and the number of abortions changed toward a more "natural" or expected pattern. Little change was observed in the distribution of hospitals performing abortions, an indication that the decision influenced individual behavior more than it influenced existing social institutions. Restrictions enacted since 1973 had little influence on the distribution. Results are interpreted as supporting theoretical approaches that emphasize environmental control of behavior over those that emphasize individual autonomy in person-environment interactions.For reprints, write to James M. Richards, Jr., Office of Educational Development, 401 C.H.S.B., UAB School of Medicine, Birmingham, Alabama 35294.     

Underreporting of abortion in surveys of U.S. women: 1976 to 1988

Although research on reproductive behavior depends heavily on information from surveys, abortions are characteristically underreported in such data. Estimates of the level of reporting are made for each of the recent major surveys of U.S. women: the 1976, 1982, and 1988 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, the 1976 and 1979 National Surveys of Young Women, and the National Longitudinal Surveys of Work Experience of Youth. The estimates are based on comparisons with external counts of abortions taking place. We examine variation by characteristics of women, trends over time, and the possible effects of length of recall and of the way in which questions about abortion are asked. Abortion reporting is found to be highly deficient in all the surveys, although the level varies widely. Whites are more likely to report their abortions than nonwhites. Special, confidential questioning procedures hold promise for improving the results.     

Abortion in amsterdam

Abstract Mortality from abortion is low in the Netherlands to-day, and approximately equal to mortality at delivery. Calculations suggest that about 4,000 abortions occur in Amsterdam every year, of which about 2,100 are induced. The abortion rate shows a very gradual decline after the Second World War. An investigation of the social background of women with induced abortion showed no relationship between occupational group and the incidence of abortion, but a strong negative correlation between religion and abortion. Abortion was more common among women with disturbed relationships in their own or parental families. Induced abortion usually occurred in pregnancies resulting from failure of contraception; these failures were caused not by lack of knowledge of good contraceptives, but by ineffective practice of contraception. The inability to use contraceptive methods in an effective way is related to a lack of communication between the two partners, and to a negative attitude of the women towards sex. An attempt has been made to formulate a theory of the causes of induced abortion among the women interviewed in Amsterdam.     

The incidence of illegal abortion

Abstract Previous estimates of the incidence of illegal abortion in this country are reviewed. It is suggested that data examined by Goodhart imply that there were more (perhaps many more) than 60,000 illegal abortions in 1967. Estimates of the incidence of female sterilizing operations are reviewed. It is suggested that in this country each female sterilizing operation averts about one live birth or - where induced abortion is the alternative - one induced abortion.     

Cohort Abortion Measures for the United States

Demographers interested in abortion in the United States have thus far focused on cross‐sectional and synthetic cohort measures, reflecting data availability. We now have cohorts that have completed their entire reproductive years after the Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion nationwide. For women who are still in their childbearing years at the conclusion of data collection, I apply the Lee‐Carter forecasting technique—its first application in abortion research—to project their completed age‐specific abortion rates. Using true cohort measures reveals markedly different abortion experiences by cohort; in particular, a significant declining trend. I find stability in the distribution of abortion by abortion order and the racial composition of abortion incidences. In addition to the substantive findings, cohort measures shift the focus of quantitative abortion research from incidence rates to women's lives over their reproductive years.     

HEW devising teen pregnancy plan

In response to the national problem of teenage pregnancy, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare has been developing a package of programs costing some $245 million to help teenagers avoid pregnancy and to help those who do become pregnant. In an August 4 decision memorandum to Health, Education, and Welfare Secretary Joseph Califano, an interagency task force underlined the 3 problems the initiatives must deal with: 1) adolescents are at high risk of pregnancy; 2) about 300,000 U.S. teenagers receive abortions annually; and 3) pregnancy and parenthood during adolescence pose serious health, economic, and social risks for both the young woman and her child. The decision memorandum recommended that state policies permitting adolescents to receive contraceptives without their parents consent be encouraged. Additionally, the memorandum outlined 9 spending options for the Secretary's consideration. However, in late November the decision memo gained notoriety when the press reported on its support for abortions for teenagers, and the controversial abortion issue obscured 3 other important issues involving Health, Education, and Welfare's teen pregnancy initiative: 1) the mix of funding and where it will come from, 2) the assignment of responsibility for implementation of the package, and 3) the amount of support for family planning services and sex education for teenagers.     

Sex selection and fertility in a dynamic model of conception and abortion

This paper investigates the effect of prenatal sex selection on fertility through a stochastic dynamic model with uncertainty in conception as well as in gender, where a woman makes decisions on conception and abortion with or without gender detection tests (i.e. sex-selective or sex-unselective abortion). The paper shows that, when the cost of gender detection test falls, the sex ratio at birth rises due to more selective abortions, but fertility can rise or fall with rising sex ratio. Fertility may rise (fall) if there are more (less) women giving up unselective abortions for selective abortions than women giving up childbirths without test for selective abortions. Similarly the paper shows that the sex ratio can rise or fall, when fertility decreases as the cost of children increases. I test these propositions as well as their implications against micro survey data on the pregnancy history of Korean women.Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Enemies of abortion

Throughout history various religious groups have worked to impose their moralistic view on others, and now the Catholic church in their Right to Life movement is focusing on dramatically exploiting the abortion issue with the use of inflammatory rhetoric, lurid propaganda and outright political blackmail. In 1972 the organized efforts of the New York Right to Life Committee brought about the repeal of that state's liberal abortion bill which was only saved by Nelson Rockefeller's veto. And, the movement has gained momentum since the Supreme Court decision in January 1973 in support of a woman's right to the decision of whether to terminate or continue a pregnancy. In pursuit of their current goal of reversal of the Supreme Court decision by a constitutional amendment, they swarmed into Washington on the anniversary of the decision to rally support for Rep. Lawrence J. Hogan's (Maryland) constitutional amendment which supports the concept of the fetus as a person from the moment of conception of life. Another bill is Senator Buckley's which grants protection to the fetus from the time a biologically identifiable being comes into existence and also allows for pregnancy termination if continuation would result in the death of the mother. Buckley's amendment has the support of some protestants, a few orthodox rabbis, the most conservative branch of the Lutheran church and members of some fundamentalist Christian sects. The National Association for the Repeal of Abortion Laws has been the only organization devoted to the single purpose of supporting legal abortion and the only one utilizing militant tactics to do so. The case for support of legal abortion is clear in that maternal deaths have declined from 35 per 100,000 in 1970, the year the abortion law was liberalized in New York, to 27 per 100,000 in 1972. Also, the number of admissions to Harlem Hospital for botched abortions dropped from 1,054 in 1965 to 292 in 1971, and the city's birthrate has declined 12%. Yet, the enemies of abortion gained a victory in December when the Senate passed the Buckley amendment which would ban Medicaid payments for abortion and again thereby would make legal abortion only available to the rich. Victories such as this can only be considered the beginning to the passage of a constitutional amendment, but the Right to Life movement must be recognized as the real threat that it is or women will lose their right to decide whether to continue or terminate a pregnancy before they even realize that this right is endangered.