Reconstruction of fertility trends for the female population of the U.S.S.R

Abstract The article describes fertility trends among Soviet women during the past 40 years as compared to American women during the same period of time. Period-specific fertility rates were arrived at by relating the annual total of live births to a pattern of age-specific fertility rates estimated for each year and also to the number of women for each single year of age. These rates were then appropriately re-arranged and compressed into five-year age groups to form a series of cohort-specific fertility rates. The findings rest on somewhat conjectural estimates of live births and numbers of women in the U.S.S.R., some of which were originally prepared before the 1959 Soviet census. The tentative evidence shows that changes in the period-specific fertility of Soviet women were far more irregular and dramatic in the past, than among American women. After World War II these rates dropped in the U.S.S.R. below those of the United States, except for women over 30 years of age. On the other hand, the cohort-specific rates of Soviet women, although declining from one cohort to the next, at present show their magnitude in the cumulative series for older ages to be marked by higher than among American women. This experimental investigation of fertility in the Soviet Union makes no claim to high standards of accuracy and validity. Its intended purpose is to stress the desirability of shifting emphasis from the temporal and prognostic type of study, characteristic of present-day demographic research about the U.S.S.R., to the generational and historical approach.     

Shifting shares of the population and U.S. fertility

American fertility, as measured by the total fertility rate, apparently has been climbing since 1988 and could approach replacement level in 1990. Three possible explanations are explored: incorrect denominators, actual fertility increase, and changing ethnic proportions of the population. Using California data as a surrogate for the nation, it is found that at least part of the gain in fertility is attributable to what is called "shifting shares." Given that minorities have higher fertility than the majority, as these groups increase their share of the population, the nation's fertility can be expected to continue climbing. Any attempt to attain zero population growth must therefore be postponed indefinitely.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

The family formation process among U.S. marriage cohorts

The family formation process is viewed as the progression of women through first marriage, first, subsequent, and last births and is examined for differential patterns of timing in 1930–1969 marriage cohorts. Based on the childbearing histories of approximately 17,000 white women once and still married, extracted from the June 1975 Current Population Survey, the study uses a dynamic model to show the varying importance across cohorts of the first birth interval as an important indicator of the total time spent in childbearing, social background effects in differentiating the timing of the first two births, and of prior birth transitions as affecting subsequent ones.     

Nonmarital childbearing: Influences of education,marriage, and fertility

We examined the determinants of nonmarital fertility, focusing on the effects of other life-course events: education, marriage, marital dissolution, and marital fertility. Since these determinants are potentially endogenous, we modeled the processes that generate them jointly with nonmarital fertility and accounted for the sequencing of events and the unobserved correlations across processes. The results showed that the risk of nonmarital conception increases immediately after leaving school and that the educational effects are less pronounced for black women than for other women. The risk is lower for previously married women than for never-married women, even controlling for age, but this reduction is significant only for black women. The more children a woman already has, the lower her risk of nonmarital childbearing, particularly if the earlier children were born during a previous marriage. Ignoring endogeneity issues seriously biases the estimates of several substantively important effects.     

Social structure and U.S. inter-state fertility differentials in 1900

This paper investigates the importance of agricultural land shortages versus modernization of the society in influencing inter-state differentials in fertility in 1900, when the United States was in midtransition. Urbanization and manufacturing characteristics of states were the strongest correlates of variations in the index of total fertility because urban-industrialism depressed both the probability of marriage and marital fertility. Other modern characteristics of American states were also important in understanding variations in marital fertility. Low labor force employment of children and farm mechanization, integrally related characteristics, seemed to depress levels of marital fertility in many parts of the United States, independent of the urban-industrial system. Agricultural land opportunity had little overall effect on marital fertility; however, it was quite important in understanding variations in patterns of marriage.     

The status of women in the rural U.S.S.R.

Degree of sex equality in rural areas of the U.S.S.R. is assessed with reference to a multi-variable model which specifies demographic, technological, social, and ideological factors associated with sex stratification. Such analysis reveals that the emphasis in the U.S.S.R. on women's participation in production as the key to sex equality ignores other dimensions of sex stratification which are not changed using this tactic. In particular, rural traditions of higher birth rates, more authoritarian families, greater religious emphasis, and male scorn for women have kept the status of rural women even lower than that of their urban counterparts. Additionally, the agrarian techno-economic base and lack of institutional supports for childcare and housework help perpetuate sex stratification. Increasing sex differentiation is probably in store for the Soviet Union, because official pronatalist policies are likely to be facilitated by expanding the service sector, which will further increase the division of labor in the market.     

The salience of PAN-national hispanic and Asian identities in U.S. marriage markets

In this paper I test whether "Hispanic" and "Asian" identities are salient in the U.S. marriage market. That is, I determine whether the different Asian and Hispanic national groups intermarry often enough to suggest that Asian and Hispanic pan-national identities are important. Analysis of census data from 1980 and 1990 suggests that both Hispanic and Asian pan-national identities are significant forces. Variations in the strength of pan-national Hispanic and Asian associations by region, education, and nativity are discussed.     

Cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. Women

Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonnegligible levels of nonmarital fertility historically. For women born between 1925 and 1929, nearly 1 in 10 had at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. For women born between 1965 and 1969, more than 1 of 4 had one or more nonmarital births by age 30, with roughly 1 of5 white, 3 of 5 black, and 1 in 3 Hispanic women having at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. Life table estimates reveal a twofold increase between ages 20 and 30 in the percentage of women with at least one child outside of formal marriage for all cohorts of white and Hispanic women, and an increase of roughly two-thirds for all cohorts of black women. I also document qualitative differences in nonmarital fertility by race/ethnicity, with the percentage of nonmarital births following a divorce or marital separation for white women approximately twice that for black or Hispanic women. Finally, I introduce a new measure, the cohort nonmarital fertility ratio (CNMFR), which provides a cohort complement to the standard period nonmarital fertility ratio. Conservative estimates reveal a roughly threefold increase in the CNMFR for women born from 1925-1929 to 1950-1954 for both whites and blacks, despite substantially higher levels of nonmarital fertility among black women. Overall, these findings reveal surprisingly high levels of nonmarital fertility for women born since the 1920s and confirm that nonmarital fertility has become an increasingly substantial component of overall U.S. fertility.     

Through a glass, darkly: U.S. marriage discourse and neoliberalism

This article draws together research insights on marriage in the U.S. to argue that over the last 40 years we are able to see an active engagement with neoliberalism in discussions on the subject. Using discourse analysis, I consider how the underlying assumptions that inform the key concepts of autonomy, individualism, responsibility, and universality have been re-semanticized through neoliberal ideology to change the ways that Americans think of marriage (and themselves). In light of these changed assumptions, this article urges a reexamination of the activism and identity politics around marriage as well as further academic research on the topic.     

Trend and variation in the seasonality of U.S. fertility, 1947–1976

This paper documents the postwar pattern of seasonality of births, for the United States and its divisions, using a simple time-varying parameter model. Variations over time and over space in seasonality are analyzed. In general, the South exhibits the greatest seasonal variation, and the most dramatic changes in seasonality. In later sections the hypothesis that the spread of air conditioning is responsible for the postwar changes in seasonality is tested, and a link between hormones and seasonality is speculated upon. A final section has a short summary and several questions for future research.     

The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births

Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf-coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.     

An intervention analysis of the effects of legalized abortion upon U.S. fertility

Models of time series data on births in the United States are used to assess the impact of the 1973 decision of the U.S. Supreme Court invalidating statutes that seriously restrict access to abortion. The decision of the Court is found to have no discernible impact on births for the nation as a whole. Models of state-level data suggest that the legalization of abortion by states prior to the decision was satisfying the demand for abortion     

Age at marriage and marital fertility

In recent years much criticism has been levelled against the use of gross and net reproduction rates as measures of replacement in any period of marked change. In this paper the author considers these criticisms and outlines a method which would yield more information on the problem of replacement and which would also eliminate the influence of varying ages at marriage on fertility when different groups or periods of time are compared. The use of this method is illustrated by an application to the fertility statistics of England and Wales and of different counties.     

Crude death rates in the U.S.S.R.: Comment on Grandstaff's remarks

Abstract My appraisal of death rates in the U.S.S.R. goes beyond the question whether a simple correlation really measures what the critic purports to measure. Normally, the crude death rates depend upon the age structure and the force of mortality. If one persists in assuming that a reasonably high correlation between the official death rates and their independent estimates should be the main criterion of validity, the best technique will be to relate the proportion of persons aged 60 and over to the official death rates recorded for some 109 observations. The force of mortality would be approximately reflected by a given proportion of survivors to the first or second year of age. But in the 1959 Soviet Census the latter data had been concealed within the 0 to 9 age group, possibly for no other reason than to prevent the curious few from tinkering with infant mortality.     

An analysis of variations in U. S. fertility and female labor force participation trends

This study is based on time series data from 1947–1977 on fertility and female labor force participation, and examines (a) the effects of male relative income and female earnings on the level and timing of fertility and female labor force participation, and (b) the relative importance of variations in relative income and female wage rates in explaining the fluctuations in both fertility and female labor supply. The results suggest that relative income exerts a significant positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on female work effort. However, female wage rates appear to be the dominant factor in explaining variations in fertility and female labor force participation over the past two decades, with increases in female earnings leading to both depressed fertility and increased labor force participation of women.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Abstract Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30

In this paper I examine the evolving association between educational attainment and the timing of births. In the late 1970s, women with four-year college degrees had lower first birth rates before age 30 than women with less education, but rates of first births were similar for the two groups after age 30. From the 1970s to the 1990s, first birth rates decreased before age 30 for all women, but increased after age 30 only for women with four-year college degrees. Parity 2 birth rates also increased for college graduates with a first birth after age 30. These results document widening educational differences in fertility timing between 1975 and 1995, which may reflect period changes at later ages in women's work and family lives.