Basic policies of the Philippine Population Program

This history of the Philippine Population Commission, which was created in 1969, is summarized. In 1970 President F.E. Marcos defined the government's task in this area as: 1) educating the people on the urgent need for population control; 2) disseminating knowledge on birth control techniques; and 3) providing facilities, especially in rural areas. Funding began in 1971. The 4 basic policies are noncoercion, integration, multiagency participation, and the partnership of the public and private sectors. The noncoercion policy means that all birth control techniques are offered and couples are free to use or reject whatever they wish. This has probably slowed the spread of family planning, but has also minimized opposition. Family planning has never been the domain of 1 agency but has been implemented through many agencies working together. Now it is being implemented through total community development plans, of which family planning is merely 1 component. This approach puts irrigation workers, agricultural development workers, and many others on the family planning team. private agencies have also had an important role to play in the development of the total program. For the past 5 years these have been mainly voluntary sociocivic and health associations whose interests are very close to or naturally related to family planning. Now the entry of business into the Population Program through the commercial contraceptive marketing program has enlarged the role of the private sector in the diffusion of family planning products and services. It is possible that the partnership between the public and private sectors may soon be based on segmentation of the target population with government agencies going deep into rural areas while private organizations concentrate on urban and adjacent rural areas.     

Family planning in India]

India, one of the 1st countries to develop family planning, had a 19.9% decline in its birth rate from 1965-80. This, however, is not adequate in degree or speed. India's 1st private family planning clinic was established in 1925. A government sponsored family planning clinic was built 5 years later. By the early 1950s, governmental support for family planning included 6 5-year plans (1951-83), the target of which was to limit the birth rate to 25/1000 by 1984, and 21/1000 by 2001. A mortality rate of 9/1000 by 2001 was also targeted. By 1979, there were 51,972 Health Centers and Stations in rural areas, all manned by 2-3 physicians, and 50-80 support staff. In urban areas, there were over 1900 family welfare centers. But these do not meet the needs of the entire populace. As early as the 1950s incentives were given to those practicing birth control (e.g., free birth control operations, or priority in housing and jobs). A system of fines was instituted in 1976 for those refusing to participate in family planning, resulting in an increased use of contraceptives. For the years 1956-81, 80,000,000 women used some form of birth control. The percentage of married women practicing birth control jumped from 12% in 1970 to 28% in 1981. Of those successful in family planning, 20.2% were sterilized. But the rate of effective use of birth control varies greatly from area to area, ranging from 1% to 35%. Family planning work in India is hindered by a complex political system, religious beliefs, traditional customs, and illiteracy. By 2000, India's population might increase by 40% to 961,000,000.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

The Philippines: country statement prepared for the International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August 1984

This statement, prepared for the 1984 International Conference on Population, summarizes the demographic situation in the Philippines, the Philippine position regarding implementation of the World Population Plan of Action, and current population policies. In 1980, the population of the Philippines stood at 48.1 million. The country's current population growth rate reflects the interplay between decreasing mortality and still high but declining fertility. The 1984-87 Philippine Development Plan aims to achieve sustainable economic growth, equitable distribution of the gains of development, and personal development. A net reproduction rate of unity by the year 2000 is sought, and preschool-age children, youth, premarriage-age groups, and married couples of reproductive age have been targeted for special outreach efforts. The national population program will concentrate on developing a network of public and private community-based organizations, strengthening the capacity of local government and community organizations to plan and manage the population program, developing community capacity to finance family planning services, upgrading the quality of natural family planning practice, continuing the promotion of effective contraceptive methods, developing a population data bank, and upgrading the technical and management capabilities of population program personnel. Increasing attention is being paid to regional development and spatial distribution. The average annual population growth rate is expected to decline from 2.8% in 1970-75 to 2.2% by 1987. The crude birth rate is expected to drop from 34/1000 in 1980 to 31/1000 in 1987. To help achieve this goal, the contraceptive prevalence rate should increase from 34% in 1983 to 41% in 1987 and 50% by 1993. In addition, attempts will be made to reduce the proportion of women marrying below the age of 20 years and to improve women's access to educational and employment opportunities.     

India's population: second and growing

Attention in this discussion of the population of India is directed to the following: international comparisons, population pressures, trends in population growth (interstate variations), sex ratio and literacy, urban-rural distribution, migration (interstate migration, international migration), fertility and mortality levels, fertility trends (birth rate decline, interstate fertility differentials, rural-urban fertility decline, fertility differentials by education and religion, marriage and fertility), mortality trends (mortality differentials, health care services), population pressures on socioeconomic development (per capita income and poverty, unemployment and employment, increasing foodgrain production, school enrollment shortfalls), the family planning program, implementing population policy statements, what actions would be effective, and goals and prospects for the future. India's population, a total of 684 million persons as of March 1, 1981, is 2nd only to the population of China. The 1981 population was up by 136 million persons, or 24.75%, over the 548 million enumerated in the 1971 census. For 1978, India's birth and death rates were estimated at 33.3 and 14.2/1000 population, down from about 41.1 and 18.9 during the mid-1960s. India's current 5-year plan has set a goal of a birth rate of 30/1000 population by 1985 and "replacement-level" fertility--about 2.3 births per woman--by 1996. The acceleration in India's population growth has come mainly in the past 3 decades and is due primarily to a decline in mortality that has markedly outstripped the fertility decline. The Janata Party which assumed government leadership in March 1977 did not dismantle the family planning program, but emphasis was shifted to promote family planning "without any compulsion, coercion or pressures of any sort." The policy statement stressed that efforts were to be directed towards those currently underserved, mainly in rural areas. Hard targets were rejected. Over the 1978-1981 period the family planning program slowly recovered. By March 1981, 33.4 million sterilizations had been performed since 1956 when statistics were 1st compiled. Another 3 million couples were estimated to be using IUDs and conventional contraceptives.     

Effect of declines in mortality on the birth rate and related measures

In December 1961, the government of the Republic of Korea adopted a programme of family planning as part of its public health services. In 1962 a pilot research project was begun, under university auspices, with the object of demonstrating and assessing what can be achieved through intensive family planning education and services. Wondang Myun near Seoul, with a rural population of 9,000 in seven villages, was chosen for the study. A baseline survey covering attitudes and practices related to family planning was made of the population under study, as well as of a similar population in the control area of Kimpo Myun. This report outlines the design, the programme of education and services, and some of the preliminary results of the study. After eighteen months of the programme, acceptance of birth control measures increased fourfold among the married women in the fertile age range. Acceptance was highest among the 25–39 age group, and among high-parity women. Economic considerations were foremost among the reasons given for adopting family planning. Among the traditional methods offered, the condom was the favoured method of choice, indicating that husbands were taking the initiative in contraceptive practice. A decline in the crude birth index was observed; whether the decline was due more to contraceptive practice or to abortion, at least an increase is reflected in the effective desire for family limitation. The high failure rate among Users should be investigated further. Continued effort is needed to provide more information and detailed instruction to users, and to develop social circumstances that support the practice of family planning. Along with an effort to achieve more effective use of traditional methods, other methods, including intra-uterine devices, deserve trial.     

Sub-Saharan Africa: population pressures on development

The population of sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 434 million in 1984, is expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2025. The birth rate, currently 48/1000 population, continues to increase, and the death rate, 17/1000, is declining. Rapid population growth has curtailed government efforts to provide adequate nutrition, preserve the land base essential for future development, meet the demand for jobs, education, and health services, and address overcrowding in urban areas. Low education, rural residence, and low incomes are key contributors to the area's high fertility. Other factors include women's restricted roles, early age at marriage, a need for children as a source of security and support in old age, and limited knowledge of and access to modern methods of contraception. Average desired family size, which is higher than actual family size in most countries, is 6-9 children. Although government leaders have expressed ambivalence toward development of population policies and family planning programs as a result of the identification of such programs with Western aid donors, the policy climat is gradually changing. By mid-1984, at least 13 of the 42 countries in the region had indicated that they consider current fertility rates too high and support government and/or private family planning programs to reduce fertility. In addition, 26 countries in the region provide some government family planning services, usually integrated with maternal and child health programs. However, 10 countries in the region do not support family planning services for any reason. Unfortunately, sub-Saharan Africa has not yet produced a family planning program with a measurable effect on fertility that could serve as a model for other countries in the region. Social and economic change is central to any hope of fertility reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Lower infant and child mortality rates, rising incomes, higher education, greater economic and social opportunities for women, and increased security would provide a climate more conducive to fertility decline. Given the limited demand, great sensitivity must be shown in implementing family planning programs.     

建设人口均衡型社会:条件、问题及对策

在建设资源节约、环境友好型社会的进程中,人口的均衡发展是一个关键。自上世纪70年代初开始的计划生育政策,加速了我国人口生育率下降,有效地控制了人口过快增长,促进了经济增长与人口增长的协调发展。但是,从1990年代我国进入低生育率开始已有20来年,长期的低生育率的人口非均衡发展下将产生了更为复杂的人口现象,引发了人口规模与结构、劳动供给与需求、人口流动与区域发展等之间的失衡和矛盾,成为制约未来我国经济与社会发展的人口难题,破解这些人口难题是建设人口均衡型社会的应有之意。     

Our population predicament: a new look

Issued to mark the Population Reference Bureau's 50th anniversary, this issue updates the story of world population presented in its popular predecessor of 1971, "Man's Population Predicament." Estimated at 1/2 billion in 1650, world population reached about 2 billion in 1930, 4 billion in 1975, and is projected to be about 6 billion in 2000. Most of today's rapid growth is occurring among the 3/4 of the world's peoples living in less developed countries where the post-World War II gap between high birth rates and falling death rates has only recently begun to narrow. This growth, coupled with high consumption in developing countries, is putting tremendous pressures on the Earth's resources, environment, and social fabric. New evidence on Europe's population transition and from China, Indonesia, and Thailand in the 1970s suggests that well-designed family planning programs can speed fertility decline but rapid worldwide attainment of replacement level fertility will also require special development efforts and measures that go beyond family planning. Current projections of the world's ultimate peak population range from 8 billion in the mid 21st century to 11 billion in about 2125, depending on when replacement-level fertility is reached. China's drive for a drastic birth rate reduction and the oil crisis might change fertility behavior more rapidly than most demographers have heretofore thought likely.     

A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

The threshold hypothesis: evidence from less developed Latin American countries, 1950 to 1980

Historical research among European countries finds large differences in the level of social, economic or demographic development among countries, or regions within countries at the time marital fertility rates began their decline from traditional high levels. This research tests a threshold hypothesis which holds that fertility will decline from traditional high levels if threshold levels of life expectancy and literacy are surpassed. Using a pooled regression analysis of 1950, 1960, 1970 and 1980 crude births rates (CBRs) in 20 less developed Latin American countries, in conjunction with 10-year lagged measures of social, economic and family planning program development, analyses reveal statistically significant effects of passing Beaver's (1975) threshold levels of 1950 literacy, or 1950 life expectancy, that are independent of levels of lagged literacy (or lagged life expectancy), economic and family planning program development, as well as measures that control period effects.     

A comment on ‘social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline’ by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951–1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

A comment on 'social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline' by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

Abstract The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951-1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

The current situation and tasks of China's population control

During the 10 years from the late 1960's to the late 1970's, China's birth rate declined by 50%. Currently, however, China is in the midst of a baby boom. 3 statements characterize the birth rate: The growth rate is high (birth rate is 21.04/1000 in 1987 and natural increase was 14.39/1000); unplanned births are common; and population growth is varied in different areas of the country (10 provinces show 3rd or higher parity births at an average rate of 20%; the highest rate in a province is 45%). Several measures are suggested to deal with these population problems; increase nationwide awareness of population control; stabilize current family planning policies with only special case exceptions; expand contraceptive services and increase scientific research in the area of family planning; and enact economic and social welfare policies in line with population control.     

Shuangyang County popularizes contraceptive knowledge

Shuangyang County is located in the southeast of the Changchun City, Jilin Province, with a total population of 385,000 and a total area of 2,000 square kilometers. The rural population makes up 96% of the total with 8.2% minorities. As the county government vigorously promoted the family planning program in the period of the 6th Five-Year Plan, the rapid growth of the population was effectively controlled. Since 1982, the county government has put the emphasis of the family planning work on publicizing scientific knowledge, on provviding technical services and on training the working staff at the grass-roots level. In response to the different needs of the community for knowledge about premarriage, preconception, and postnatal cares as well as infant feeding, the county government started a program in 1985 for popularizing knowledge about puberty, hygiene, sexual physiological hygiene, pregnancy care, and birth control. As a result, a number of young people have delayed their former marriage date to the ideal marriage age. Many newlyweds voluntarily chose the most proper age for giving birth. To improve the effectiveness of contraception, the county government promoted widely the use of a new type of IUD. Finally, the county government believes that it is most important to improve the quality of the family planning workers at the grass-roots level. Accordingly, the government worked out a plan to train the community workers regularly.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

Family planning achievements as suggested by changes of total fertility and party birth rate]

The dynamic characteristics of China's 5 distinct stages of population development since the People's Republic of China was established in 1949, namely, 1950-1958, 1959-1963, 1964-1970, 1971-1981, and 1982-present, are outlined and discussed. By tracing both the overall rate of population growth and age-specific fertility rates for women aged 15-45 (5-year groups), a clear pattern emerges which indicates that the rates of early and late fertility (ages groups 15-19 and 30-45) are significantly declining. This is interpreted as a key factor in the overall decline in fertility rate. Annual statistics showing the number of children per woman of childbearing age and interval between 1st marriage and 1st birth are compared and discussed. It is concluded that the overall decline in birth rate and fertility rate since the 1970's is attributable to China's successful family planning campaign.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

Abstract In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians. In essence, the life table function e(0) was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960. Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.