Rural-Urban Migration and Reproductive Behavior in Guatemala

Guatemala has the highest fertility of any country in Latin America, and it is also the least urbanized. Projected rural-urban migration will shift more of Guatemala's population from rural areas into towns and cities. This article uses retrospective life-history data collected in migrant origin and destination areas in Guatemala to compare the fertility of rural-urban migrant women to that of rural and urban nonmigrants. Results from discrete-time hazard regression models of union formation, first birth, and third and higher parity births indicate that delayed marriage while still in rural areas, and the rapid adoption of urban fertility practices after migration, result in intermediate migrant fertility that is closer to that of urban natives than rural nonmigrants. If current patterns are any guide to the future, the redistribution of population from high fertility rural areas to towns and cities in Guatemala will accelerate the decline in aggregate fertility beyond what would have resulted from declines in rural and urban fertility alone.     

中国城乡人口迁移数量决定因素的实证研究:1992~2004

通过对影响中国城乡迁移的因素进行实证分析,得到如下结论:第一,中国的经济增长对城乡迁移具有比较明显地促进作用;第二,人均耕地面积的减少成为城乡迁移比较重要的推动力量;第三,中国城镇新增就业岗位对城乡迁移具有显著的正向影响,中国城镇失业率对城乡迁移的影响不显著,中国的城乡迁移仍存在盲目性;第四,中国城乡收入差距对城乡迁移的作用不显著。     

Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940-60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.     

Fertility and development in Brazil

In the past, one of the concomitants of development has been a sustained reduction in fertility. As a result of this experience, demographers hypothesize that in a society in which fertility is lower in urban areas, among the upper socioeconomic status groups and the better-educated, fertility will decline to a moderate level as the country changes from a rural, agricultural socioeconomic structure, with low levels of living and education, to an urban, industrial structure, with rising levels of living and education.The data analyzed in this study indicate, however, that though substantial social and economic development (as measured by changes in industrial structure, per capita income, urbanization, and education) occurred in Brazil from at least 1920-40 to 1960, during which time fertility differentials of the kind indicated above existed, fertility has shown little or no tendency to decline. Between 1940 and 1960, in fact, the birth rate appears to have remained fairly constant around 43. With the death rate steadily dropping, the rate of natural increase and population growth (given a small net in-migration) has been accelerating. p ]From a theoretical point of view, these facts reinforce a growing realization, based on similar findings in some other developing countries, that the prevailing theoretical ideas concerning the relationship between development and fertility require modification, particularly in the direction of greater specificity. On the practical side, the question is raised whether Brazil's rate of economic development during the postwar period up to 1960 can be maintained, let alone increased, in the face of a population growth rate which will probably average 3.2-3.5 percent for the period 1960-70 and which, in the absence of a decline in fertility, is likely to accelerate further.     

城乡收入差距急剧扩大引发的思考

防止城乡收入差距急剧扩大不仅是公平问题 ,更是国家持续、健康、稳定发展的重要保证。由于在工业化进程中 ,农业增长率大大低于非农业部门的增长率 ,防止城乡收入差距的急剧扩大将在很大程度上取决于迁移 ,因此未来一个时期为乡 -城迁移扫除障碍是至关重要的     

居民消费增长的路径选择——基于省际面板数据的分析

文章利用1991～2009年中国31个省份城镇和农村居民的人口、消费支出和收入的数据,基于居民总消费分解模型,进行省际面板回归估计。实证结果表明,城镇居民消费支出增长对中国居民总消费增长的贡献率最大;农村居民消费支出增长的贡献率位列第二,但呈现出下降的趋势;农村向城镇人口迁移引起的消费支出增长的贡献率位列第三。考虑到城乡收入和消费支出的差异,文章认为,居民总消费增长的路径将主要依赖于城镇居民消费支出增长和农村向城市的人口迁移,并提出通过制度改革增加居民收入、放宽并完善人口迁移政策等建议。     

Dimensions of social inequality in the Third World

This cross-national assessment of the empirical determinants of income inequality and infant mortality employs policy-relevant variables suggested by the major macrosocial theories of development and stratification. Findings based on sample sizes ranging from 34 to 61 LDCs indicate that modernization and ecological-evolutionary theories provide more consistent explanations of social inequalities than either dependency/world-systems theory or urban bias theory. Our analyses point to economic growth and the development of rural infrastructure and social complexity as the most expedient methods for facilitating mortality reduction and income equalization. We conclude that simplistic policy-orientations stressing such phenomena as urban bias or population growth should be replaced by more complex perspectives that include an emphasis on rural social organization.     

Books and Publications Received

Mexican fertility has remained at a high level (a crude birth rate of 42–46) in spite of rapid economic development and its concomitants: rising levels of urbanization, education, income, and female labour force participation, and falling levels of infant mortality and agricultural population, combined with rural-urban migration.

Data on child-woman ratios and children-ever-born statistics, for Mexico and each state, suggest that the constant crude birth rate is not masking age or region-specific declines in fertility.

Cross-section regressions are employed in an attempt to explain Mexico’s paradoxical fertility behaviour. Using measures of income, education, urbanization, occupational status, industrial composition, labour force participation, and the sex ratio, in a weighted log-linear form, a large portion of the variation in state adjusted child-woman ratios is explained by the ‘demographic transition’ variables. The only two which might possibly explain the trend in Mexican fertility are the income variable and the sex ratio, which have positive influences on Mexican fertility in 1960 and 1970.     

The variance of population characteristics in stable populations, with applications to the distribution of income

Summary Stable population theory has recently been used to analyse the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on economic variables such as income per head. In this paper more general results are derived to describe the effects of changing vital rates on the variance and higher moments of the distribution of some age-dependent variable. Simple analytical expressions are derived which decompose the effects of changes in age structure into the effects on inter-cohort and intra-cohort variance. The results are easily applied to standard measures of the distribution of income. By combining the analytical results with actual age profiles of income and income variance from the United States and Brazil it is observed that both the magnitude and direction of the effects of population growth on measured inequality are sensitive to the specific age profiles used. The most surprising result is that the Brazilian age profiles suggest that higher growth rates may actually reduce measured inequality, although the effect is relatively small.     

Recent fertility in Mexico: measurement and interpretation

Summary Mexican fertility has remained at a high level (a crude birth rate of 42-46) in spite of rapid economic development and its concomitants: rising levels of urbanization, education, income, and female labour force participation, and falling levels of infant mortality and agricultural population, combined with rural-urban migration. Data on child-woman ratios and children-ever-born statistics, for Mexico and each state, suggest that the constant crude birth rate is not masking age or region-specific declines in fertility. Cross-section regressions are employed in an attempt to explain Mexico's paradoxical fertility behaviour. Using measures of income, education, urbanization, occupational status, industrial composition, labour force participation, and the sex ratio, in a weighted log-linear form, a large portion of the variation in state adjusted child-woman ratios is explained by the 'demographic transition' variables. The only two which might possibly explain the trend in Mexican fertility are the income variable and the sex ratio, which have positive influences on Mexican fertility in 1960 and 1970.     

劳动力迁移对收入分配的影响研究——以重庆市为例

劳动力迁移对收入分配影响的实证研究,可以度量我国劳动力迁移对收入水平提高程度和收入分配不均等程度,证实劳动力迁移可以大大提高迁移劳动力的收入水平,对于缩小地区、城乡之间以及不同人口特征的收入分配差距具有积极作用,稳定有序的劳动力迁移对于经济社会持续发展提供动力。     

人口年龄分布与中国居民劳动收入变动研究

文章从代际和年龄角度定量分析了中国居民劳动收入变动模式。研究结果表明,劳动收入变动的年龄效应和代际效应皆表现出明显的线性趋增,且前者大于后者。收入不平等的年龄效应表现出非线性的、加速递增趋势,而不平等的代际效应稳定上升,1960年之后出生队列不平等程度较高。此外,居民劳动收入变动也表现出明显的城乡差异,比较而言,城镇居民收入模式更具优势。由于代际效应和城乡差异是收入差异的重要原因,因此促进代际公平的养老保险和统筹城乡发展的政策应受到充分重视。     

The impacts of rapid demographic transition on family structure and income inequality in Brazil, 1981–2011

This study analysed the impact of changing family structure on income distribution. Specifically, it analysed how changes in the proportions of different categories of family in the population contributed to increases in the income of the richest and poorest social strata in Brazil, and the consequent impacts on income inequality. Rural and urban families were compared in order to understand how these dynamics had different impacts on more developed (urban) and less developed (rural) areas. The results emphasize how changes observed in family structure are more pronounced among the richest families, contributing to an increase in (i) the income of the richest families and (ii) income inequality between the richest and poorest families, as well as between urban and rural areas.     

城市化的城乡差别效应和城乡协调发展

城市化作为人口和地域的乡 -城转化过程 ,必然会对城市和乡村两个方面产生各种差别效应。深入研究这种差别效应 ,对统筹城乡发展 ,具有重要意义。本文主要利用 2 0 0 0年人口普查省内迁移有关数据 ,分析乡 -城迁移体现于收入水平、年龄结构、生育水平、受教育程度、劳动就业、人口分布等特征的城乡差别效应。认为全面建设小康社会 ,必须充分注意城市化的差别效应对城乡协调发展的影响 ,实施城乡协调型的城市化战略 ,走城市化推动型的城乡协调发展道路。     

The influence of rural-urban migration on migrants' fertility in Korea,Mexico and Cameroon

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and fertility in Korea, Mexico, and Cameroon. Using an autoregressive model, the results show a significant rural-urban migration adaptation effect in Korea and Mexico, a reduction of 2.57 and 1.45 children during the entire childbearing period, respectively, when compared to a rural stayer, even after the effect of selection has been controlled. Rural-urban migration has a very small impact on fertility in Cameroon. The unexpected result for Cameroon is due to the fact that the fertility-increasing effect of urban residency on the improved supply conditions of births, such as reduced infertility, offsets the fertility-depressing effect of urban residency on the demand for births. As a result of the adaptation to urban fertility norms, the number of country-wide births was reduced significantly in Mexico and Korea over the time periods studied.     

中国城镇家庭户收入和财产不平等:1995～2002

利用中国家庭户收入调查收集的1995年和2002年城镇家庭户样本数据,以家庭户作为分析单位,对中国城镇收入和财产不平等进行了考察。数据分析结果表明:中国城镇家庭户收入的大多数不平等测量指标在1995～2002年7年间都存在一个显著的大幅度上升,但家庭户财产不平等在此期间呈现出略有下降的趋势;基于人口分组的分解反映出,区域、户主受教育程度和户主中共党员身份对总的家庭收入和财产不平等具有更大的贡献;总体上,对于1995～2002年的中国城镇而言,分类机制在左右家庭户资源不平等变动中扮演着更为重要的角色。     

Family and economic growth: A review

The interplay between fertility decisions and per capita growth of income by investment decisions in human capital constitutes the key element of growth models based on the microeconomic theory of family behavior. A strategy that raises the fixed cost per child, reduces the cost of education, stimulates the accumulation of human capital, diminishes the opportunity cost of parents to send their children to school, encourages female activity, accelerates economic development and contributes to a reduction of inequality.     

弹性城市化与农民工反贫困：基于城乡统筹的视角

主流观点认为农民工问题的根本出路不在农村而在城市．支持通过加速城市化进程的方式来解决农民工问题。但在中国人口整体规模过大情况下,完全实行人口自由流动或迫使人口向城市流动的政策,结果只能是贫困人口向城市的搬迁和聚集。较现实的方式是：长期稳定和完善中国农民自己创造的城乡间往返流动模式．即弹性城市化模式。这在一定程度有效地平衡了市场条件下的城市化限制与农村低收入之间的矛盾,降低城市严重贫困化的风险。     

Thailand’s urban population reconsidered

In lieu of any official definition of “urban population” in Thailand, researchers and policy makers have generally used a simple urban-rural dichotomy, relying upon the administratively designated municipal areas as urban and the remainder of the kingdom as rural. For administrative purposes, however, a more refined set of residence categories is available: the “urban” segment is subdivided into three categories of municipal areas; within the “rural” group, units of population concentration classified as sanitary districts are distinguished from the remainder of the rural population. Data from a 1970 census sample tape have been used to analyze a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as migration and fertility, for each of these five residence categories separately in an attempt to determine if the formerly used rural-urban dichotomy is valid. For each of the characteristics and for migration and fertility, a clear urban-rural continuum emerges, with the sanitary districts generally resembling the smaller urban places more than they do the rural areas under which they are usually subsumed. The evaluation thus suggests the importance to research and policy either of using an urban-rural continuum or of grouping sanitary districts with municipal areas when a dichotomy must be used. Doing so should facilitate evaluation of the interrelations between urbanization and demographic and development factors.     

Determinants of rural-urban migration in Ghana

Abstract In the 39 years between the 1921 and 1960 censuses, urban population in Ghana multiplied by nine while the population of the whole country only trebled. The major factor in urban growth was rural-urban migration and the reproduction of the migrants. In 1963 a survey consisting of a systematic sample of households in 45 rural centres, randomly chosen in Local Authority Areas selected in accord with the regional rural population distribution, reconstituted the rural population so as to include current migrants in the towns as well as those remaining in rural areas. For analysis 13,748 respondents were divided into 14 categories by ruralurban migration behaviour. At the same time a survey of urban population provided a check on rural-urban migration data. study of the propensity to migrate from rural to urban areas shows that this increases with the closeness of the rural area to a large town, the population size of the rural centre, the economic well-being of the rural household, the number of relatives already in the urban area, the individual's level of education, larger family size and probably lower birth rank, as well as exhibiting specific age and sex patterns. It is shown that only a minor role is played by occupation, conjugal condition and number of dependants. Various interrelations between these factors are discussed, and attention is given to the special importance of education in partially or wholly determining some of the other factors. Census data are used to demonstrate the effect of rural-urban migration in concentrating persons with certain characteristics in the urban areas.