The developmental paradigm, reading history sideways, and family change

The developmental paradigm, reading history sideways, and cross-cultural data have converged to exert a profound influence on social scientists and ordinary people. Through the use of these tools, social scientists of the 1700s and 1800s concluded that family patterns in northwest Europe had undergone many substantial changes before the early 1800s. These conclusions were accepted until the last several decades of the 1900s, when almost all were seriously challenged; many were declared to be myths. Further, the developmental paradigm, reading history sideways, and the conclusions of generations of social scientists created a package of ideas--developmental idealism--that subsequently became a powerful influence for family change in many parts of the world during the past two centuries. This developmental idealism has been a substantial force for changing living arrangements, marriage, divorce, gender relations, intergenerational relationships, and fertility.     

Revolution,war and modernization: Population policy and fertility change in Iran

Fertility trends in Iran over recent decades can be plausibly related to a number of causal factors. Population policy shifts were quite marked, and were related to political upheaval and war, which influenced both official policy and popular perceptions of the nation’s need for children. A range of developmental factors were also important. The key fertility trends to be explained include the rise to an exceptionally high level in the early 1980s (a TFR of just below 7), and the speed of the subsequent decline to a TFR of about 2.7 in 1996. As well as estimating the proximate determinants of these trends, the paper sets them in their political and developmental context. Iran’s fertility trends are then compared with those of Islamic countries of North Africa and West Asia to gain additional insights into possible causal factors. An adequate explanation of fertility change in Iran needs to draw on elements of a number of theories of fertility transition.     

A demographic perspective on the Muslim world

A demographic perspective is relevant to understanding the position of Muslims in today’s world. This paper examines the size and growth of Muslim populations, and whether most Muslims live in overwhelmingly Muslim countries. It also examines indices of poverty and human development for Muslimmajority countries, and the growth of the youth population; finally, it examines the key components of population growth: mortality and fertility. Mortality has declined sharply over the past 15 years in many Muslim countries, though not in all, and Muslim countries are no longer prominent among the ‘outliers’ with higher mortality than expected on the basis of their income levels. Fertility rates are also declining sharply in a number of major Muslim-majority countries, raising interesting issues about attitudes of different schools of Islamic jurisprudence, village-level religious leaders and ordinary Muslims towards contraception and abortion, as well as the role of socio-economic development and family planning programs in fertility declines. Despite these declines, past high fertility in many Muslim-majority countries leaves as a legacy a rapidly growing adolescent population and a burgeoning, inadequately educated labour force.     

Developmental Idealism and Cultural Models of the Family in Malawi

This paper examines the extent to which developmental idealism has been disseminated in Malawi. Developmental idealism is a set of beliefs and values about development and the relationships between development and family structures and behavior. Developmental idealism states that attributes of societies and families defined as modern are better than attributes defined as traditional, that modern societies help produce modern families, that modern families facilitate the achievement of modern societies, and that the future will bring family change in the direction of modernity. Previous research has demonstrated that knowledge of developmental idealism is widespread in many places around the world, but provides little systematic data about it in sub-Saharan Africa or how knowledge of it is associated with certain demographic characteristics in that region. In this paper, we address this issue by examining whether ordinary people in two settings in Malawi, a sub-Saharan African country, have received and understood messages that are intended to associate development with certain types of family forms and family behaviors. We then examine associations between demographic characteristics and developmental idealism to investigate possible mechanisms linking global discourse about development to the grassroots. We analyze data collected in face-to-face surveys from two samples of Malawian men in 2009 and 2010, one rural, the other in a low-to-medium income neighborhood of a city. Our analysis of these survey data shows considerable evidence that many developmental idealism beliefs have been spread in that country and that education has positive effects on beliefs in the association between development and family attributes. We also find higher levels of developmental idealism awareness in the urban sample than we do in the rural sample, but once dissimilarities in education and wealth between the two samples are controlled, awareness levels no longer differed between urban and rural respondents. We explore how these beliefs intersect with longstanding local values and beliefs in Malawi.     

Developmental Idealism and Beliefs About Marriage and Fertility in Turkey

Population Research and Policy Review - Developmental idealism (DI) contains a set of beliefs endorsing development, low fertility, and late marriage and causal connections between development,...     

Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia

Although 10 countries and two of China’s special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia’s total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate. These conclusions are then buttressed for each country by the findings of anthropological demographic research programs in which the authors were involved. The predictions are that all three countries will attain a total fertility rate of 2.1 within the next 30 years and that the UN2000 Revision of the medium population projection is plausible in that regard. However, the authors part company with the UN projection in their assessment that the nature of these societies means that they will all subsequently fall to still lower fertility levels.     

Measuring years of inactivity,years in retirement,time to retirement,and age at retirement within the Markov model

Retirement-related concepts are treated as random variables within Markov process models that capture multiple labor force entries and exits. The expected number of years spent outside of the labor force, expected years in retirement, and expected age at retirement are computed—all of which are of immense policy interest but have been heretofore reported with less precisely measured proxies. Expected age at retirement varies directly with a person’s age; but even younger people can expect to retire at ages substantially older than those commonly associated with retirement, such as age 60, 62, or 65. Between 1970 and 2003, men allocated most of their increase in life expectancy to increased time in retirement, but women allocated most of their increased life expectancy to labor force activity. Although people can exit and reenter the labor force at older ages, most 65-year-old men who are active in the labor force will not reenter after they eventually exit. At age 65, the probability that those who are inactive will reenter the labor force at some future time is .38 for men and .27 for women. Life expectancy at exact ages is decomposed into the sum of the expected time spent active and inactive in the labor force, and also as the sum of the expected time to labor force separation and time in retirement.     

Multivariate analysis of parity progression—based measures of the total fertility rate and its components

This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model—the complementary log-log model—to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total marital fertility rate (TMFR), and the TFR itself as measures of the quantum of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The focus is on effects of predictor variables on these measures rather than on coefficients, which are often difficult to interpret in the complex models that are considered. The methodology is applicable to both period and cohort data. It is illustrated by application to data from the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the Philippines.     

Household type and the demographic transition

Demographic transition theorists postulate a post-transition steady state predicated on the nuclear family. This study reveals that other family types—community and anomic/polygynous—will, if they persist, produce different steady states at higher levels of infant mortality and fertility. Only if family type changes as countries modernize will the transition theorists' post-transition steady state be achieved.     

Contradictions in Nigeria's Fertility Transition: The Burdens and Benefits of Having People

Nigeria appears to be experiencing a transition to lower fertility. Based on ethnographic research, this article shows how Nigerians navigate a paradoxical political‐economic and cultural context, wherein they face powerful pressures both to limit their fertility and to have relatively large families. The main argument advanced here is that Nigerians' fertility behavior must be understood in the context of the ways that parenthood, children, family, and kinship are inextricably intertwined with how people survive in a political economy organized around patron‐clientism. Despite the fact that fertility transition is widely associated with broad processes of modernization and development, ordinary Nigerians experience the pressures to limit fertility in terms of a failed economy, development disappointments, and personal hardship–even while they see relatively smaller families as essential if they are to educate their children properly and adapt to a changing society.     

Teaching Business Demography Using Case Studies

Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness” of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool.     

Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century

This study examines if the Korean fertility decline is driven by long-term cohort changes or by fluctuating period changes. By using a classic age–period–cohort model, a moment decomposition method, and a new summary fertility measure—‘cross-sectional average fertility’—I show that the Korean fertility decline is primarily driven by period changes and that delayed childbearing has important consequences for the onset of fertility decline. These findings are in line with the existing literature in fertility changes such as theories of fertility transitions and sociological accounts of fertility changes in Western countries in the twentieth century. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.     

Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory of Australia: what do we know? (and what can we know?)

In the Northern Territory of Australia, Indigenous people make up 30% of the population. Demographic features of the Indigenous population are thus important for understanding Northern Territory population dynamics, but our understanding of what is happening within the Indigenous population is limited by poor data and limited research attention. This paper exploits birth registration and census data to explore Northern Territory Indigenous fertility trends over a 20-year period. It investigates whether fertility decline identified for the 1960 and 1970s is a contemporary feature of Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory. Results show that our understanding of Northern Territory Indigenous fertility is heavily constrained by data and that trend analysis is essential for avoiding erroneous conclusions because of annual fluctuations. The outstanding feature of Indigenous fertility in the Northern Territory is women becoming mothers at extremely early ages, particularly in rural and remote parts of the Territory. Age patterns appear to have changed little since the middle of last century despite modest declines in age-specific fertility at the youngest ages. While these declines may continue, any trends will be slow to emerge. Continued close scrutiny of data sources and monitoring of trends is needed to ensure that Northern Territory population dynamics are properly understood, and care must be taken in interpreting results to make certain policy interventions aimed at population outcomes are appropriate and achievable.     

Does More Schooling Reduce Hospitalization and Delay Mortality? New Evidence Based on Danish Twins

Schooling generally is positively associated with better health-related outcomes—for example, less hospitalization and later mortality—but these associations do not measure whether schooling causes better health-related outcomes. Schooling may in part be a proxy for unobserved endowments—including family background and genetics—that both are correlated with schooling and have direct causal effects on these outcomes. This study addresses the schooling-health-gradient issue with twins methodology, using rich data from the Danish Twin Registry linked to population-based registries to minimize random and systematic measurement error biases. We find strong, significantly negative associations between schooling and hospitalization and mortality, but generally no causal effects of schooling.     

Antecedents to contraceptive innovation: Evidence from rural Northern Thailand

A number of different causal mechanisms have been proposed to explain the onset of fertility declines in populations with previously uncontrolled fertility, but they have never been adequately tested. The present study identifies and tests five antecedents to family limitation practices in a sample of 755 currently married couples resident in rural Northern Thailand. The loglinear multiple regression models estimated indicate that couples in more developed districts, more modern couples, couples in which wives have more equal roles, couples believing that intergenerational wealth transfers favor children rather than their parents, and more wealthy couples, were all significantly more likely to be early adopters of contraception. Local development levels appeared to have the greatest net effects on the timing of adoption of fertility control. In addition, couples in areas where contraceptive services were more readily available were also significantly more likely to be contraceptive innovators, net of these five variables.     

The Perceived Role of ICTs in Quality of Life in Three Chinese Cities

This study assesses the perceived role of information and communication technologies (ICTs) including the Internet, mobile telephone, CD/MD/MP3, television and VCR/VCD/DVD in raising quality of life (QoL). A comparison is made between three Chinese cities, namely, Beijing, Taipei and Hong Kong, to see if differences exist in the perceived value of various forms of ICTs in the three cities, which share Chinese culture but different levels of development. Household interviews with probability samples were conducted in the three cities in 2002–2003. The findings show that the Internet and mobile phone are considered as the most and second most important medium respectively in raising quality of life in all three cities, while television ranks third and other ICTs trail behind. Based on the findings, the authors advance four propositions for the perceived role of ICTs in QoL. First, there are four basic needs related to ICT’s role in QoL. These “ICT-QoL” needs are the need for interaction, need for being in touch, need for instantaneous communication, and need for entertainment. Second, people’s assessment of an ICT’s value in raising their QoL varies with the penetration rate of that ICT—the higher the penetration, the more positive is the assessment of that ICT’s role in QoL. Third, the perceived value of an ICT in QoL declines with time—the longer the ICT has been around after reaching full penetration rate, the lower the value is attached to its contribution to QoL. Finally, education has strong influences on the assessment of the Internet’s role in QoL. Highly educated people tend to value the Internet most as a QoL raiser irrespective of the city they reside in. As a QoL raiser, the Internet is favored more by highly educated while mobile and fixed phone are favored more by lowly educated people.     

The global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions, 1950-2000

During the second half of the twentieth century, world population grew at a record pace, both in absolute and relative terms, from 2.5 billion to 6 billion (or 1.75 percent annually). Demographers have long identified rapid mortality declines as the main explanation. This article finds that one-fourth of today's world population is alive because of mortality improvements since mid-century. Very rapid growth is unlikely to continue as substantial fertility declines also occurred in recent decades. This article finds that already by the year 2000, these fertility declines have almost exactly compensated for the impact of mortality declines from mid-century levels. This result may suggest homeostasis, but analyses of underlying trends contradict this impression. First, the impact of fertility declines will soon and significantly exceed that of mortality declines. Second, that mortality and fertility declines jointly affect the size of the world population by less than one percent conceals a significant impact on the population's age composition as well as on regional population sizes.     

Who Benefits from Religion?

Many studies have documented the benefits of religious involvement. Indeed, highly religious people tend to be healthier, live longer, and have higher levels of subjective well-being. While religious involvement offers clear benefits to many, in this paper we explore whether it may also be detrimental to some. Specifically, we examine in detail the relation between religious involvement and subjective well-being. We first replicate prior findings showing a positive relation between religiosity and subjective well-being. However, our results also suggest that this relation may be more complex than previously thought. While fervent believers benefit from their involvement, those with weaker beliefs are actually less happy than those who do not ascribe to any religion—atheists and agnostics. These results may help explain why—in spite of the well-documented benefits of religion—an increasing number of people are abandoning their faith. As commitment wanes, religious involvement may become detrimental to well-being, and individuals may be better off seeking new affiliations.     

Birth delays skew developing world's fertility figures

This article explains that birth delays skew developing world's fertility figures. When successive groups of women who have delayed childbearing start having children, the rapid fertility decline stalls. Such change in the timing of childbearing skews the total fertility rate (TFR). Analysis of the tempo component of TFR trends in Taiwan suggests that tempo effects reduced its TFR by about 10% in the late 1970s and early 1990s and by about 19% in the late 1980s. In Colombia, on the basis of increasing mean maternal age at childbirth between the 1970s and the late 1980s, tempo distortions of the TFR during the most of the 1980s seem likely. Moreover, many developing countries are now experiencing rapid fertility declines that are in part attributable to tempo changes. These changes have accelerated past fertility transitions, but they also make these countries vulnerable to future stalls in fertility when the delays in childbearing end. Since fertility reductions caused by tempo effects lead to real declines in birth rates and hence in population growth, countries that wish to reduce birth rates can take actions that encourage women to delay marriage and the onset of childbearing.