The Ethnic Composition of Families in Russia in 1989: Insights into the Soviet “Nationalities Policy”

A sample from the 1989 Soviet census is used to study the ethnic composition of families in the Russian Federation on the eve of the breakup of the Soviet Union. The aim is to gain insight into the consequences of the Soviet “nationalities policy” through examining the marriage patterns of different ethnic groups and the nature of the relations between these groups. The analysis is based on general log-linear models. The main findings are: there was a relatively well-pronounced tendency toward endogamy; Russians were the least endoga-mous, while Chechens were the most endoga-mous among the 11 ethnic groups included in the analysis; “zones of attraction” related to exogamy were well discernible, the two most pronounced being within the Eastern Slav and Turkic groups; testing for cohort effects revealed a decrease in endogamy when older and middle cohorts were compared, while the differences between middle and younger cohorts were in many cases not statistically significant.     

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.     

A social change index-an objective means to discern and measure the relative current social condition of cities,towns, and their sub-communities

A social change index has been developed in response to a social planning need to have a means whereby the current social pathology of communities may be identified on an objective basis. The index is derived from a combination of social indicators which are reported by census tract by the State of Rhode Island on an annual basis. The index is particularly useful for the inter-decennial years because high mobility rates, particularly in central cities (up to 80% in some areas of these cities), cause census data to be unrepresentative in many instances for these years. In addition to serving as a means to identify social needs and problem areas, the index may be used for priority ranking of need for social program services, program monitoring, and program evaluation. The State of Rhode Island is expected to institute a Committee on Social Statistics among whose primary responsibilities will be to encourage state agencies to publish their social statistics by census tracts in their annual reports. It is presumed, consequently, that a larger number of current social indicators will be available to be included in the social change index and increase its accuracy.     

An investigation of the age of an alleged centenarian

At times, persons have been reported as living to extremely advanced ages such as 130, or even higher (McWhirter and McWhirter, 1977, p. 26; Medvedev, 1974; Merrill, 1976). However, controlled studies of closed groups like Civil War veterans (Myers and Shudde, 1955) have not shown any persons surviving beyond age 110, when age has been reasonably verified. It seems, therefore, highly plausible that reports of extremely advanced ages at death reflect exaggerations of age rather than reality. This note reports a case history which supports this view and illustrates how ages can be verified using available census data.     

Stability and change in ethnic identification in Australia: An aggregate level analysis

A cohort approach is used to detect changes in ethnic identification between the 1986 and 2001 Australian censuses. The aim is to observe whether particular ethnic groups were more or less likely to state the same ancestry in 2001 as in 1986. Age-sex specific survival ratios are applied to the ancestry groups in three 15-year age cohorts in 1986 to estimate the number that would have survived to 2001, adjusting for emigration and underenumeration. Some ethnic groups appear to demonstrate remarkable consistency in their ancestry response in the two censuses. Others show an increase in size between the two censuses that could be attributed to differences in the format of the ancestry question and the guidelines and examples provided on the census form. The coding of only two ancestries appears to have contributed to a decrease in the size of some groups.     

Factorial ecology: A critique and some suggestions

Studies in factorial ecology have typically used the principal factor procedure coupled with varimax rotation. Since it can be shown that the results one obtains vary according to the factor and rotation models he employs, and since there is no one “best” way of obtaining initial and derived factor solutions, it is proposed that future research in the area adopt an approach involving the simultaneous use of several different computing algorithms for obtaining initial solutions and both orthogonal and oblique rotation procedures to avoid the possibility that the results one obtains are not method-dependent. Ideally, the factor models employed should differ maximally with respect to the principles upon which they are based. If one finds a given factor regardless of the method he uses, only then can he assert with any confidencethat it is not an artifact of his method. Factorial ecologists are often interested in computing “factor scores”, but “true” factor scores are not uniquely computable; they can only be estimated. Since the proposed research strategy involves using either a component or an image model, in which the corresponding scores are exact and uniquely computable, the factor score problem is, in a sense, solved. Next it is suggested that, by using orthogonal solutions, factorial ecologists may be overlooking a very important piece of information—the correlation between the factors. There is some reason to believe that this varies from city to city, and may account for the fact that some factors which emerge in studies of Western cities are sometimes not found in cities elsewhere. Some comments are also made on the value of using census tract data, and on the availability of computer programs for different initial and derived factor solutions.     

Urbanization and de-urbanization of the black population before the civil war

Pre-Civil War black urbanization is examined using data from federal census records, 1790 to 1860. The black population is found to be as urban as the white population initially, but its urbanization underwent relative decline in the last two decades before the Civil War. Foreshadowing current patterns, the northern black population was heavily concentrated in the largest cities, and the free black population was the most urban of all groups. The timing of black urban decline in the North, as well as regional and size of place differences in that decline, suggest that both competition with immigrants in major eastern seaboard cities and the passage of the Fugitive Slave Law in 1850 contributed to black de-urbanization. For the South, the explanations of black urban decline proposed by Wade, Conrad and Meyer, Goldin, and Bonacich are evaluated, and Bonacich’s split labor market theory is judged to be most consistent with the demographic trends.     

Occupational Stratification of Hispanics,Whites, and Blacks in Southern Rural Destinations: A Quantitative Analysis

Since the 1990s, many rural communities in the Southern US have experienced an unprecedented influx of Latino migrants. Some research undertaken on such “new Hispanic destinations” suggests that the newcomers tend to assume low-status jobs shunned by non-Hispanic residents and thus form a segmented labor market, but other work indicates that they heavily compete with natives (particularly African Americans) for less-skilled positions. Drawing on data from the 2000 census and 2009–2011 American Community Survey, this paper examines patterns of occupational stratification between Latino, white, and black men in the rural South to identify whether Hispanic economic relations in the area are better characterized by segmentation or competition. Specifically, occupational dissimilarity indexes and status scores are calculated to map the groups’ relative economic positions in the rural portions of five Southeastern states home to fast-growing nonmetro Latino populations: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Consistent with the segmentation hypothesis, the results reveal that Latinos are highly occupationally dissimilar from non-Hispanic whites and blacks and rank significantly below both in mean occupational status. Standardization of the stratification measures shows that Hispanics’ labor market isolation and disadvantage can be substantially accounted for by their lower average levels of human capital and US citizenship.     

Foreign-Born Emigration From The United States: 1960 To 1970

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.     

The Case of the Disappearing Mexican Americans: An Ethnic-Identity Mystery

We examine the issue of identification stability for U.S.-born Mexican Americans, by far the largest of the ethnic groups growing as a result of contemporary immigration. We demonstrate a significant exodus from the group as identified by the census. Although changes in the wording of the census question may have contributed to this loss, a major portion, as revealed by comparisons of birth cohorts across the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses, occurs because individuals who identified themselves as Mexican American at an earlier point in time do not do so at a later point. In addition, there are exits that occur between generations because of past intermarriage, evident in the number of non-Hispanics who claim Mexican ancestry. The losses appear to be accounted for by two kinds of identity shifts: toward identities that have a mainstream character and thus appear reflect conventional assimilation; and toward identities that have a pan-ethnic character, i.e., with Hispanics or Latinos. These exits are selective, but in complex and partially off-setting ways. Nevertheless, the comparison of the characteristics of U.S.-born members of the Mexican–American group over time is likely to be affected by changing patterns of identification.

Measuring Ethnicity with U.S. Census Data: Implications for Mexicans and Arabs

U.S. racial and ethnic populations can be defined by a number of census questions—race/ethnicity, ancestry, place of birth, and/or language—but little is known about how using alternative definitions of identity affect the size and characteristics of different groups. This article examines this question using combined data from the 1 % and 5 % Public Use Microdata Samples in census 2000, using Mexicans and Arabs as case studies. The analysis uses the standard method of classifying these groups (Hispanic origin and Arab ancestry) as a baseline to explore differences across the range of possible permutations of ethnic identity. In the Arab case, persons captured using alternative definitions of identity (Arabic language at home and/or born in an Arab country) are lesser educated, more likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as non-white or multi-racial than the Arab population as a whole. In contrast, persons in the Mexican alternative definition group (Mexican ancestry and/or born in Mexico) are more highly educated, less likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as white than the Mexican population as a whole. The article concludes with research and policy implications of these findings.     

Reconstruction of fertility trends for the female population of the U.S.S.R

Abstract The article describes fertility trends among Soviet women during the past 40 years as compared to American women during the same period of time. Period-specific fertility rates were arrived at by relating the annual total of live births to a pattern of age-specific fertility rates estimated for each year and also to the number of women for each single year of age. These rates were then appropriately re-arranged and compressed into five-year age groups to form a series of cohort-specific fertility rates. The findings rest on somewhat conjectural estimates of live births and numbers of women in the U.S.S.R., some of which were originally prepared before the 1959 Soviet census. The tentative evidence shows that changes in the period-specific fertility of Soviet women were far more irregular and dramatic in the past, than among American women. After World War II these rates dropped in the U.S.S.R. below those of the United States, except for women over 30 years of age. On the other hand, the cohort-specific rates of Soviet women, although declining from one cohort to the next, at present show their magnitude in the cumulative series for older ages to be marked by higher than among American women. This experimental investigation of fertility in the Soviet Union makes no claim to high standards of accuracy and validity. Its intended purpose is to stress the desirability of shifting emphasis from the temporal and prognostic type of study, characteristic of present-day demographic research about the U.S.S.R., to the generational and historical approach.     

New money,and old man/lady and ‘Two's company’: Subjective Welfare in the NORC General Social Surveys, 1972–1982

The nine surveys, dozens of variables, and more than ten thousand cases in the NORC General Social Surveys, 1972–1982, allow one to test a variety of cross-sectional and over-time hypotheses about Subjective Welfare (Happiness). I used discrete multivariate analyses to test five hypotheses: (1) the Economist's prediction that Happiness is a function of income; the Sociologist's hypotheses that Happiness is a function of (2) rank on various evaluated dimensions and (3) number of social ties; and the Psychologist's hypotheses that Happiness is affected by (4) social comparisons and (5) adaptation. None of the five is supported impressively, but three variables emerge as good cross-sectional predictors — Race (Blacks are less Happy, but not necessarily because of discrimination), Marital Status (all categories of nonmarried are less happy) and Financial Change (those whose finances are improving are happier, those who finances have turned for the worse are less happy). When Marital Status and Recent Financial Change are used in a year-to-year social indicator model, fluctuations in the predictors produce significant but small changes in Happiness.     

Plans for the 1971 census of Canada

This article describes the plans which have been developed for the Census of Canada to be taken June 1, 1971. One of the most important features of this census will be the use of the Self-enumeration technique for the great majority of respondents. Other topics touched upon include the User Liaison Programme which established requirements, the Testing Programme which determined the methodology and some highlights of the Data Collection and Processing Phases of the operation. There is a brief discussion of the use of sampling in 1971 with particular emphasis on the benefits to be derived in increased quality and reliability of data, increased timeliness and reduction in respondent burden. The Quality Control procedures are described. The Post-censal Evaluation and Data Dissemination programmes are also dealt with.     

Religious Affiliation and Fertility in a Sub-Saharan Context: Dynamic and Lifetime Perspectives

We use uniquely detailed data from a predominantly Christian high-fertility area in Mozambique to examine denominational differentials in fertility from two complementary perspectives—dynamic and cumulative. First, we use event-history analysis to predict yearly risks of birth from denominational affiliation. Then, we employ Poisson regression to model the association between the number of children ever born and share of reproductive life spent in particular denominations or outside organized religion. Both approaches detect a significant increase in fertility associated with membership in a particular type of African-initiated churches which is characterized by strong organizational identity, rigid hierarchy, and insular corporate culture. Membership in the Catholic Church is also associated with elevated completed fertility. We relate these results to extant theoretical perspectives on the relationship between religion and fertility by stressing the interplay between ideological, social, and organizational characteristics of different types of churches and situate our findings within the context of fertility transition and religious demographics in Mozambique and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Family reunification and the immigration multiplier: U.S. immigration law,origin-country conditions,and the reproduction of immigrants

This paper reports estimates of the total numbers of actual legal immigrants to the United States that result from the family reunification provisions of U.S. immigration law. These immigration multipliers are estimated separately for major visa categories and by gender and are obtained in the context of an analysis of how individual characteristics of immigrants and their origin country conditions affect (a) the decision to migrate to the United States and (b) once admitted, their propensity to remain and to become U.S. citizens. The analyses combine longitudinal data on the 1971 cohort of legal immigrants and data from the 1970 Census Public Use Tapes. The results suggest that the actual multipliers differ importantly by visa category and that they are substantially lower than the potential multipliers and lower as well than previously supposed.     

Permanent homelessness in America?

This paper seeks to determine the approximate number of homeless persons in the U.S., the rate of change in the number, and whether or not the problem is likely to be permanent or transitory. It makes particular use of a new 1985 survey of over 500 homeless people in New York City. It finds that:

1. the much-maligned 1984 study by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Affairs was roughly correct in its estimate of 250,000–350,000 homeless persons for 1983;
2. the number of homeless has grown since 1983, despite economic recovery, with the number of homeless families growing especially rapidly;
3. homelessness is a relatively long-term state for many homeless individuals, with an average incomplete duration, corrected for growth of the homeless population, of six years and an estimated completed duration twice as long;
4. much of the homeless problem can be attributed to increases in the number of the poor in the 1980s and declines or rough constancy in the number of low-rent rental units;
5. relatively few homeless individuals receive welfare or general assistance money; a large proportion have spent time in jail.

Overall, the study suggests that economic recovery will not solve the problem of homelessness and that, in the absence of changes in the housing market or in the economic position of the very poor, the U.S. will continue to be plagued with a problem of homelessness for the foreseeable future.     

Estimation of vital rates by means of monte carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation has been used to estimate age-specific fertility and mortality rates for a small population,the French-derived isolate of Northside on St. Thomas, U. S. Virgin Islands. Estimates were based on data collected in a household census and genealogical survey and on birth, death, and marriage records for the years 1916to 1966. During this 50-year period (in which the population size increased from 202 to 657), the numbers of births and deaths were too, small to estimate age-specific rates directly, and in addition, death registration was incomplete. Mortality rates were estimated using a simulation program in which mortality was the only stochastic variable. A model mortality schedule was chosen which most accurately reproduced the growth pattern of the population over the 50-year period. To estimate fertility rates, a more complex simulation model was used in which fertility, nuptiality, and mortality were random variables with probability distributions. Preliminary estimates of fertility were made from the birth records and used as input to this simulation program. Birth probabilities were adjusted empirically from one set of simulation runs to the next, until population growth rates, as well as other demographic characteristics, were similar in the real and simulated populations. The birth rates which produced the best fit to the real population data were taken as the estimated age-specific fertility schedule. To reproduce the real population age structure more closely, secular changes in birth probabilities were applied.     

Immigration,ethnicity, and housing—Success hierarchies in Israel

The study assesses housing hierarchies among immigrants in Israel by investigating three different but complementary paths: homeownership, crowding, and access to housing goods. Data from the most recent Israeli census in 1995 (the 20% version file) allows us to classify the immigrant population by 46 countries or areas of origin, each meeting the criterion of having a minimum of 100 sample cases. I controlled for several confounding factors: immigration characteristics, community of residence, demographic and human-capital variables, household composition, and housing characteristics. The results of multivariate analyses suggest that membership in approximately half of the immigrant groups has a statistically significant effect on homeownership. Representing very different origin groups from developing countries in Asia and Africa, as well as developed areas in Western Europe and America, most of the effects are negative relative to the reference group of Polish Jews. The pace of home acquisition is fastest among immigrants from several former Soviet republics and slowest among Syrian and Ethiopian Israelis. A better ethnic hierarchy was found for the other two characteristics, crowding and housing goods, with immigrants from Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe being at a disadvantage. Many of these gaps close as immigrants purchase housing and gain tenure in Israel. The pace of advancement, however, is not uniform. I speculate that the differences in pace reflect structural characteristics, cultural background, and immigration processes, as well as absorption policy, which were not fully indexed by the census data. The discussion addresses broader implications of the findings for ethnic differences and social stratification in immigration countries.     

India's Falling Sex Ratios

The proportion of females in India's population, low compared to other countries, reached its lowest level this century in the 1991 census. India's low sex ratios—defined here as the number of females relative to the number of males—have been scrutinized for well over a century. The persistent decline in the twentieth century has been the subject of renewed investigation and critical comment over the past two decades. While many explanations for the decline have been offered, almost without exception these have not addressed the causes of the nearly continuous fall observed since 1901. Several possible long-term changes are investigated in this note. The author argues that India's declining sex ratio is primarily an artifact of the dynamics of India's population growth.