首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 203 毫秒
1.
甘泽泉 《社科纵横》2009,24(10):61-63,80
本论文对传统的持久收入假说提出质疑。对该假说所内涵的总消费是由代表性的、理性的消费者产生的假设进行驳斥。先从研究消费的两个经典模型的简介,从其模型本身带以历年数据进行验证,说明其缺陷后,提出另一备则假设——消费者当中应当有相当比例的并不如经济学家那般精明的短视者。同时,深入剖析了当期消费变化与当期收入变化和利率的关系,指出消费变化与利率关联不大而与当期收入变化关系紧密,这便引出了关于及时行乐消费者存在的设想。在这些消费者存在的情况下,总消费的研究会有哪些变化。在原先经典模型的基础之上加入了及时行乐者的元素,并结合利率与欧拉方程,对持久收入理论进行检验,并与备则假设的检验相对比。最终得出持久收入假说在实证中并不完善的结论,以及数据对该备则假设的支持。  相似文献   

2.
财政以发行国债方式为扩大政府支出筹集资金,在我国现阶段产生的挤出效应是不明显的,其经济效应是在一定程度上有利于社会总需求的扩张和经济的增长.根据我国现阶段国债对非政府部门投资和消费的挤出效应的特点,笔者进一步分析了其对我国宏观经济调控政策的启示.  相似文献   

3.
本文运用1995—2005年中国除西藏和台湾外30个省、自治区和直辖市城乡面板数据建立随机效应模型对中国城乡居民消费需求的影响因素分别进行计量分析,结果发现:中国居民人均可支配收入与居民人均消费支出高度相关,且在这11年里中国城乡居民消费函数相对稳定。在这个发现的基础上,本文又进一步运用1992—2004年中国的资金流量表(实物交易)数据,解释了1997—1998年以来中国居民消费需求持续低迷的原因之一是在国民收入分配和再分配过程中,政府在总收入和可支配收入中占有的份额越来越大,而居民占有的份额不断下降。  相似文献   

4.
传统的货币经济学认为,货币政策收紧将抑制消费和投资支出,导致产出和通胀的下降,这被称为货币政策的需求面效应.但是,国外实证分析发现货币紧缩也可能伴随着物价水平的上升而不是下降.这使学者们开始关注货币政策对经济供给面的影响,从货币政策的成本渠道( Cost Channel)来研究利率与通胀之间的关系.货币政策可以通过影响企业的成本来影响经济的供给面,这也被称为货币政策供给面效应.本文在国内外现有文献基础上,运用相关数据对我国是否存在货币政策成本渠道效应进行检验,从而为我国的通货膨胀动态提供新的解释,也为更有效货币政策的制定提供新的依据.  相似文献   

5.
通过对我国居民各阶层的储蓄动机研究及实证分析可知,随着居民收入水平的增加,居民的边际消费倾向是先上升后下降,而不是像边际消费倾向递减规律所预言的那样单调下降。所以边际消费倾向最高的阶层并不是低收入阶层,而是中等收入阶层。此时若进行收入再分配的话,向中等收入阶层进行转移支付反而比向低收入阶层进行转移支付的效果更好。所以,需要根据各阶层居民消费行为的实际情况,制定新的收入再分配政策以启动居民消费。主要政策取向应该是扩大中等收入者比重,对中等收入阶层进行一定的转移支付,对低收入阶层的转移支付应主要采取实物而不是货币形式。  相似文献   

6.
论当前中国利率政策取向   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
姚琼巍  陈岩 《求是学刊》2002,29(3):65-68
当前中国的利率政策面临着一个新的选择。本文对中国利率体制的建设和当前利率水平的确定和第8次降息效应的发挥等提供了新思路。指出 2 0 0 2年是中国利率市场化、遏制通货紧缩回头和促进经济增长的关键一年 ,应该掌握好政策的综合力度 ,以防止中国经济失去重大转机的风险 ,实现中国经济从重大转机到重大转折的转变  相似文献   

7.
基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20%。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,.除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。  相似文献   

8.
节假日与休闲消费关系研究——兼论我国假日制度改革   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
可支配收入与闲暇时间是人们进行休闲消费的必要条件,本文通过实证分析发现政府财政支出、城镇居民可支配收入、假日天数、节日次数都是我国居民休闲消费的重要影响因素,其中城镇居民的可支配收入、休假时间以及两者的交互作用对居民休闲消费的影响最为显著。这表明,在提高居民收入的同时适当延长休假时间可以有效拉动我国居民的休闲消费。通过与其他国家的休假时间进行比较,发现我国休假时间有延长的可能。本文建议:改革我国假日制度、扩大居民休闲消费。  相似文献   

9.
基于特殊时期的健康损失问题,本文重点讨论其对于宏观经济中生产价格水平、消费价格水平和就业的影响。通过建立两部门上下游产业链的DSGE模型,利用数值模拟方法研究发现:(1)在健康损失冲击下,通货紧缩效应是主导的结果,结构性通货紧缩压力较大。(2)居民对通货膨胀预期的适应性特征突显时,生产价格水平、消费价格水平受健康损失冲击的影响更大。(3)财政补贴政策有利于减缓各类物价的下滑,降低就业压力,抑制整个经济走向通货紧缩。财政补贴需要供需两端齐发力,既要刺激消费需求、加快形成现实购买力,又要帮助企业减负、引致复工复产。本文建议,提供生产行为和消费行为的财政补贴十分必要,而不仅仅是局限于政府的直接投资,最优的财政补贴政策应该是双向的。  相似文献   

10.
对一个国家来说,有怎样的生产力发展水平就会有怎样的生活消费水平.对个人来说,有怎样的收入水平,就会有怎样的生活消费水平.收入分配是连接一国生产力发展水平与居民个人消费状况的纽带.在我国经济飞速发展的今天,消费领域出现了一些新的现象,并引发了一些社会问题.那么,究竞怎样看待这些现象?它与收入分配有什么关系?我们应当如何通过收入分配的调整来引导消费,促进生产发展呢?对此笔者谈点粗浅看法.  相似文献   

11.
陈建良 《创新》2009,3(4):51-55
国际金融动荡引起我国出口形势恶化,我国经济今后将主要由国内需求特别是消费需求来拉动。当前国内消费需求总量虽在增长,但消费增长低于同期GDP的增长,居民消费率持续走低,城乡居民消费需求不平衡,差距逐年扩大。居民收入的增长缓慢、居民收入差距的持续扩大,从根本上制约了国内消费需求的增长。必须采取相应的政策和措施,加快居民收入增长速度,缩小收入差距,这样才能从根本上解决问题。  相似文献   

12.
This study examines the short-and intermediate-run effects of a permanent reduction in U.S. personal income taxes on interest rates, output, prices, exchange rates, and the current account, holding government spending and money growth fixed. The theoretical analysis suggests that interest rates and domestic consumption will rise but that net exports and interest-sensitive expenditures will fall. Also, the foreign currency value of the dollar will rise except possibly when output increases due to positive supply-side effects or to elimination of unemployment. These theoretical conclusions are essentially confirmed by simulations using the Federal Reserve Board's MPS quarterly econometric model and its multicountry model.  相似文献   

13.

This paper focuses on the comparison of individual and group decision-making, in a stochastic inter-temporal problem in two decision environments, namely risk and ambiguity. Using a consumption/saving laboratory experiment, we investigate behaviour in four treatments: (1) individual choice under risk; (2) group choice under risk; (3) individual choice under ambiguity and (4) group choice under ambiguity. Comparing decisions within and between decision environments, we find an anti-symmetric pattern. While individuals are choosing on average closer to the theoretical optimal predictions, compared to groups in the risk treatments, groups tend to deviate less under ambiguity. Within decision environments, individuals deviate more when they choose under ambiguity, while groups are better planners under ambiguity rather than under risk. Our results extend the often observed pattern of individuals (groups) behaving more optimally under risk (ambiguity), to its dynamic dimension.

  相似文献   

14.
It is argued that in order to accommodate experimentally-observed choice patterns, it is not enough to model the utility function as being dependent on changes from a reference wealth point. Instead, individuals should be modeled as treating decisions as part of an identifiable sequence of decisions, and utility should be a function of reference wealth, income so far from the sequence, and payoffs from the current decision. The three-argument utility function allows for risk aversion over gains and risk seeking over losses for the first choice in the sequence, and for the house money and break-even effects in later decisions.  相似文献   

15.
Food security policy making in India is at crossroads. India has emerged as a leading rice exporter. The Government of India has introduced the National Food Security Act which requires 33.6 million tons of rice per year for its public food distribution system. In this study, we modeled India’s rice market and analyzed policy implications of the long-term impact of India’s food security act on domestic and international rice market. We developed a structural economic demand and supply model for India’s rice market and further added subsidy equations to trace the consequence of National Food Security Act on domestic rice consumption and on the international market. We specifically focus on three different scenarios: subsidy as price effect, subsidy as inelastic income effect, and subsidy as elastic income effect under the broader framework of National Food Security Act. We found that at the end of the projection period (2024–2025), as a result of rice subsidy program, the consumption of rice increases significantly in the case of price effect while the inelastic income effect has no or less impact on production, consumption, and export of rice. Hence, the policy implication of our study is that if the objective of the National Food Security Act is to increase consumption then it needs to be implemented as price effect.  相似文献   

16.
Both Canada and the United States are considered liberal welfare states, yet exhibit notable differences in income poverty attributed to social policy. While a more generous welfare system lifts many above income poverty, models of household financial behaviour suggest that more income from the state should displace private savings via a substitution effect. Using nationally representative wealth surveys from Canada and the US from 1998/1999 to 2016 we extend knowledge on the relationship between the welfare state and private wealth accumulation. Specifically, we study household asset poverty defined as financial asset levels that fall below three-month adjusted income poverty threshold. Asset poverty rates varied over time in the two countries and were higher in the less generous US welfare state. Further, income transfer share was positively related to asset poverty in Canada but not in the US. Counterfactual estimates offered evidence of the substitution effect in Canada, where higher levels of transfers may crowd out private asset accumulation. Results invite further consideration of the concept of asset poverty and its relationship to welfare state characteristics.  相似文献   

17.
Objective. This study examines the links among income inequality, voter turnout, and electoral choice at the state level in recent presidential elections. Methods. We introduce two new state‐level ecological data sets, estimated annual Gini coefficients of income inequality from 1969 to 2004 and a measure of income segregation across Census tracts within states in 1999. We test for associations among inequality, turnout, and party preference with cross‐sectional, fixed‐effects, and multilevel analyses. Results. The cross‐sectional effect of inequality on voter turnout and electoral choice is ambiguous. However, a fixed‐effects analysis links higher income inequality to lower voter turnout and also to a stronger Democratic vote. Multilevel results indicate that higher levels of economic segregation likewise are associated with depressed turnout, after controlling for individual voter characteristics and for state‐level income.  相似文献   

18.
This study examined immigrants’ support for social spending. We tested the dominant self‐interest hypothesis for a number of immigrant groups in the Netherlands with highly varying socio‐economic positions. We additionally examined the effect of immigrants’ group interest by testing the relevance of in‐group immigrant benefit participation rates and their effect on support for social spending. In this article, we discuss how immigrants’ sense of belonging to a group affects the association between immigrants’ self‐ and group interests in welfare and their support for social spending. We found that self‐interest has explanatory relevance, but that this is strongly correlated with level of income. Results showed weak support for the effect of group interest. Instead of the expected moderation effects of sense of belonging on the self‐ and group‐interest explanations of support for social spending, the results showed a direct effect of sense of belonging on support for social spending.  相似文献   

19.
This paper simulates the distributional impact of the Russian personal income tax (PIT) following the flat tax reform of 2001 using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. I decompose the change in the distribution of net income into a direct (tax) effect and an indirect effect. The indirect effect is further decomposed into evasion and productivity effects using existing estimates of these respective elasticities. As expected, the direct tax effect increased net income inequality. Changes in the pre-tax distribution (indirect effect), on the other hand, had a large negative impact on inequality thus leading to an overall decline in net income inequality. I also find that the tax-induced evasion response increased reported net income inequality while reducing consumption inequality. To the extent that consumption approximates actual income, these results demonstrate that the flat tax reform had a much smaller effect on actual income inequality than on reported income inequality. More importantly, relative to non-tax factor, the reform had little overall effect on income inequality. This suggests that objection to flatter tax schedules on the grounds of income inequality is mostly misguided, especially in transitional countries with high levels of evasion.  相似文献   

20.
Foreign assistance constitutes a significant share of government revenue in many low‐ and middle‐income economies and is targeted at poverty reduction and the promotion of social and economic well‐being. This study therefore examines fiscal responses by Latin American welfare states to the inflow of such aid. As a form of external non‐tax revenue, aid can function as a substitution for public welfare expenditure, with a crowding out effect being the likely outcome. This article investigates whether overall aid and aid that is particularly targeted at the social sector substitutes public welfare provision and, if so, whether it also substitutes its function. A time‐series cross‐section analysis of 19 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2008 provides limited support for the assumption that foreign aid payments influence the welfare budget. It is only the health care sector in middle‐income countries which experiences a small decrease in expenditures. Social security and education expenditures are not affected.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号