The demographic situation in European countries

Demographic trends in European countries are summarized for the period 1960 to 1980 using data taken primarily from published sources, including those of the Council of Europe and the United Nations. Information is included on age composition, natural increase, births, infant mortality, marriages and divorces, and population projections to the year 2000. The data are presented separately for Socialist and capitalist countries.     

A NOTE ON THE ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCE IN BALANCED INCOMPLETE BLOCK DESIGNS

The Williams & Ratcliff (1980) and Zelen (1957) methods for the analysis of covariance in incomplete block designs with recovery of inter-block information are compared using data from a balanced incomplete block design. The former is shown to be more efficient. Other advantages of the Williams & Ratcliff formulation are also presented.     

Some coverage error models for census data

"Alternative models are presented for representing coverage error in surveys and censuses of human populations. The models are related to the capture-recapture models used in wildlife applications and to the dual-system models employed in the vital events literature. Estimation methodologies are discussed for one of the coverage error models." After a discussion of the theory underlying the methodology, "distinctions are made between two kinds of error: (a) sampling error and (b) error associated with the model. An example involving data from the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The problem of adjusting census and survey data for coverage error is also discussed."     

Changes in the distribution and composition of the population recorded as temporary residents in the years 1978-1980

The author describes two surveys carried out in 1978 and 1980 in Poland that were concerned with temporary residence, defined as residence for more than two months. The results of the surveys are presented, including data on age, sex, and urban or rural residence.     

Classification by race and Spanish origin in the 1980 census and its impact on white and nonwhite rates

A basic change concerning the racial classification of persons of Spanish origin used in the 1980 U.S. census is examined for its impact on white and nonwhite population counts, particularly in urban areas. "Arrest rates by race for central city Phoenix together with 1980 census data by race and ethnicity for Phoenix and 11 other central cities are used to illustrate the substantive effect of changes in the white and 'other race' counts produced by this change in procedure." The authors consider "remedies for the problems faced by those using published census data..., and one possibility for creating comparable rates is presented. Closely related complications created by the failure of the Office of Management and Budget to arrive at a single, logical statistical standard for the classification of U.S. residents by race and ethnicity are also identified."     

Statistical materials: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data on the population of the USSR by sex and Union republic as of January 1, 1982, are presented. Data are included on population by sex; birth, death, and natural growth rates, 1980 and 1981; distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month, 1981; distribution of births by birth order, 1981; age-specific birth rates for rural and urban areas, 1980 and 1981; mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer, 1980 and 1981; marriages by age of bride and groom, 1981; and divorces by duration of marriage and age of husband and wife, 1981.     

Regression Parameter Estimation from Panel Counts

This paper considers a study where each subject may experience multiple occurrences of an event and the rate of the event occurrences is of primary interest. Specifically, we are concerned with the situations where, for each subject, there are only records of the accumulated counts for the event occurrences at a finite number of time points over the study period. Sets of observation times may vary from subject to subject and differ between groups. We model the mean of the event occurrence number over time semiparametrically, and estimate the regression parameter. The proposed estimation procedures are illustrated with data from a bladder cancer study ( Byar, 1980 ). Both asymptotics and simulation studies on the estimators are presented.     

Estimation of error probabilities in stochastic dominance

The process of using data to infer the existence of stochastic dominance is subject to sampling error. Kroll and Levy (1980), among others, have presented simulation results for several normal and lognormal distributions which show high error probabilities for a wide range of parameter values. This paper continues this line of research and uses simulation to estimate error probabilities. Distributions considered are a pair of normals and a pair of lognormals. Analysis of these distributions is made computationally feasible through theoretical results which reduce the number of parameters of the pair of distributions from four to two.     

Statistical materials: the family in the USSR

Statistical data are presented on the family in the USSR. Data from the 1979 census are included on number of families and their distribution by size; distribution of families by size and type, social class, and nationality; number of families including members of different nationalities, 1959-1979; number of marriages and divorces, 1960-1981; changes in age at marriage, 1960-1981; and distribution of births by age of mother, 1969-1970, 1974-1975, and 1980-1981.     

On using percentiles to fit data by a johnson distribution

The well-known Johnson system of distributions was developed by N. L. Johnson (1949). Slifker and Shapiro (1980) presented a criterion for choosing a member from the three distributional classes (S_B,S_L, and S_v) in the Johnson system to fit a set of data. The criterion is based on the value of a quantile ratio which depends on a specified positive z value and the parameters of the distribution. In this paper, we present some properties of the quantile ratio for various distributions and for some selected z values. Some comments are made on using the criterion for selecting a Johnson distribution to fit empirical data.     

The demographic,social, and occupational distribution of the population

Some results from Poland's 1985 micro-census of population are presented. They concern population changes by age, sex, marital status, educational status, occupation, and income. The data are presented separately for rural and urban areas.     

Regional differences in life expectancy

An analysis of life tables constructed for the 49 voivodships of Poland for the years 1973-1975 and 1976-1980 is presented. The life tables have been prepared for periods of several years to avoid distortions due to data inadequacies for the smaller voivodships. The paper is in two parts: Part 2 is concerned with the major causes of death and the effect of their elimination on life expectancy.     

Use of the squared ranks test to test for the equality of the coefficients of variation

A distribution-free test for the equality of the coefficients of variation from k populations is obtained by using the squared ranks test for variances, as presented by Conover and Iman (1978) and Conover (1980), on the original observations divided by their respective expected values. Substitution of the sample mean in place of the expected value results in the test being only asymptotically distribution-free. Results of a simulation study evaluating the size of the test for various coefficient of variation values and probability distributions are presented.     

The World Fertility Survey: a global demographic research project. Part 2: results of the WFS so far

An outline of the results currently available from the World Fertility Survey is presented. Seven WFS publication series are first described, and the discussions that took place at the World Fertility Conference held in London in 1980 are summarized. The future of the World Fertility Survey is also considered. (summary in ENG)     

The demographic situation in Poland in 1987

Demographic trends in Poland in 1987 are reviewed using data from official sources. The author notes that the population growth rate for 1987 was 0.5 percent, compared to 0.8 percent for the 1980s as a whole.     

Modeling of soybean yield using symmetric,asymmetric and bimodal distributions: implications for crop insurance

Over the years, many papers used parametric distributions to model crop yields, such as: normal (N), Beta, Log-normal and the Skew-normal (SN). These models are well-defined, mathematically and also computationally, but its do not incorporate bimodality. Therefore, it is necessary to study distributions which are more flexible in modeling, since most of crop yield data in Brazil presents evidence of asymmetry or bimodality. Thus, the aim of this study was to model and forecast soybean yields for municipalities in the State of Paran, in the period from 1980 to 2014, using the Odd log normal logistic (OLLN) distribution for the bimodal data and the Beta, SN and Skew-t distributions for the symmetrical and asymmetrical series. The OLLN model was the one which best fit the data. The results were discussed in the context of crop insurance pricing.     

Bayesian analysis of mortality data

Congdon argued that the use of parametric modelling of mortality data is necessary in many practical demographical problems. In this paper, we focus on a form of model introduced by Heligman and Pollard in 1980, and we adopt a Bayesian analysis, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, to produce the posterior summaries required. This opens the way to richer, more flexible inference summaries and avoids the numerical problems that are encountered with classical methods. Particular methodologies to cope with incomplete life-tables and a derivation of joint lifetimes, median times to death and related quantities of interest are also presented.     

An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts

"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%." This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

A comparison of population estimation methods: housing unit versus component II,ratio correlation,and administrative records

The authors present the case for the housing unit (HU) method as a technique for estimating the population of states and local areas in the United States. They "evaluate population estimates produced by the housing unit method and by three other commonly used methods: component II, ratio correlation, and administrative records. Basing [the] analysis on 1980 census data from 67 counties in Florida and testing for precision, bias, and the distribution of errors, [they find that] application of the HU method performs at least as well as the more highly acclaimed methods of local population estimation."     

Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."