Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: a demographic-economic approach

"The limitations of available migration data preclude a time-series approach of modeling interstate migration [in the United States]. The method presented here combines aspects of the demographic and economic approaches to forecasting migration in a manner compatible with existing data. Migration rates are modeled to change in response to changes in economic conditions. When applied to resently constructed data on migration based on income tax returns and then compared to standard demographic projections, the demographic-economic approach has a 20% lower total error in forecasting net migration by state for cohorts of labor-force age."     

Internal migration studies

Recent research on internal migration in Poland is reviewed. The basic sources of data, consisting of censuses or surveys, are first described. The author discusses the relationship between migration studies and other sectors of the national economy, and particularly the relationship between migration and income.     

劳动力流动对中国地区经济差距影响的空间计量经济模型分析

学术界对劳动力流动对地区经济发展产生的影响有两种不同观点：一种观点认为劳动力流动能够缩小地区差距;另一种观点则认为劳动力流动会扩大地区发展差距。考虑各地区经济发展的空间依赖性,通过构建空间计量经济模型,并利用中国各省区经济的面板数据进行研究与实证分析。结果表明：劳动力流动对中国不同地区经济发展的作用方向和强度表现不同,对地区差距的影响是劳动力流入与劳动力流出综合作用产生的结果。     

Trends in internal migration

Trends in internal migration in Poland are analyzed using official data for the period 1950-1984. The author notes that the volume of such migration has declined in the 1980s. Special consideration is given to rural-urban migration and its determinants.     

Combining census and registration data to estimate detailed elderly migration flows in England and Wales

Summary.  A log-linear model is developed to estimate detailed elderly migration flows by combining data from the 2001 UK census and National Health Services patient register. After showing that the census and National Health Service migration flows can be reasonably combined, elderly migration flows between groupings of local authority districts by age, sex and health status for the 2000–2001 and 2003–2004 periods are estimated and then analysed to show how the patterns have changed. By combining registration data with census data, we can provide recent estimates of detailed elderly migration flows, which can be used for improvements in social planning or policy.     

基于第四次全国人口普查资料的迁移年龄模式研究

 中国即将完成生育率的转变，人口迁移将成为人口变动的重要部分。生育率低于更替水平的工业发达国家已经将人口迁移作为解决其人口负增长及人口老龄化问题的重要手段。迁移人口具有较强的年龄选择性，迁移的性别上也存在差，迁移人口的年龄结构与非移民的年龄结构有很大的差异。1990年第四次人口普查（以下简称“四普”）第一次全面普查了中国1985年7月1日到1990年6月30日5年间积累的迁移人口，但是基于该次普查的按龄迁移模式一直没有见到报告，而迁移的年龄模式是研究迁移对人口变动影响的基础。四普中关于迁移询问的是五年前的居住地，其优点是简单易行，可得到五年以来迁移强度与流向的信息从而消除了短期波动性；但是，由于统计时间上的限定，迁移发生的准确时间无法确定，从而导致迁移发生时的年龄的不确定性，这些缺点使得难以求出分年龄组的迁移人口和按龄迁移率，并且有可能受回迁及多次迁移的影响而低估迁移的强度，对于回迁及多次迁移的问题无法从四普中得处结论，本文不予考虑。本文将给出基于四普的按龄迁移模式必须引入的假设，并给出引入假设后能够得到的结果，并对省际迁移和省内迁移年龄模式作实证分析。     

影响中国农村劳动力省际迁移动因的实证分析——基于新劳动力迁移理论

利用2005年中国1%人口抽样调查数据中的农村劳动力省际迁移数据,结合新劳动力迁移经济理论,对logit模型进行了扩展,加入了农村信贷市场、农业生产性固定资产、农业受灾比例和老年抚养比,考察它们对省际迁移的影响。结果显示：农村信贷市场越不完善、农业生产性固定资产原值越高、农业受灾比例越大和老年人抚养比越高的地区,农村劳动力外迁的比例也就越大。因此,在中国农村金融和保险市场不完善的前提下,农村劳动力迁移是农民分散农业风险和稳定家庭收入的一种有效方式。     

跨方言区流动、自选择与劳动力收入

本文基于2012和2014年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据,采用内生转换回归模型考察劳动力跨方言区流动对收入的影响。实证结果表明,与在同一方言区流动的个体相比,跨方言区流动收入要高31.9%;对于跨方言区流动的劳动力而言,跨方言区流动对收入的平均处理效应为30.5%,如果在同一方言区流动的劳动力选择跨方言区流动,其收入反而会减少3.9%,说明不同个体在流入地的选择上是基于其比较优势做出的决策。进一步,本文还发现跨方言区流动的劳动力无论选择在同一方言区流动还是跨方言区流动,均能获得较高的收入,在流动决策上具有绝对优势。在考虑了测量误差和极端值以及排除其他干扰因素后,上述结论依然稳健。     

The measurement of the intensity of internal migration

The method developed by Daniel Courgeau for calculating rates of internal migration is described and applied to data for Poland. Individual probabilities of internal migration are calculated for various years, population groups, and administrative areas in order to show that these probabilities are not constant.     

The effect of migration on population development

Long-term migration patterns in the USSR are analyzed by Union Republic using data from the 1979 census. The impact on the population of rural and urban areas is considered.     

Understanding the 2001 UK census migration and commuting data: the effect of small cell adjustment and problems of comparison with 1991

Summary.  Origin–destination statistics have been produced from the last three UK censuses. The paper describes what is new about the 2001 census interaction data on migration and commuting, considers the disclosure control methods that were applied to cells containing small values and demonstrates the problems that are associated with making comparisons with 1991 data. The effect of small cell adjustment procedures on the interaction data sets is investigated by means of selective analyses at different spatial scales. Some recommendations are made in light of the problems that were manifest in 2001.     

The wrapped skew-normal distribution on the circle

The wrapped skew-normal distribution is proposed as a model for circular data. Basic results for the distribution are established and estimation for a circular parametrisation of it considered. Procedures based on the sample second central sine moment for testing for departures from three important limiting cases of the distribution are described. The model and some new inferential techniques are applied to directional data from a study into bird migration.     

基于vSEIdRm模型的人口迁移以及离汉交通管控对新冠肺炎疫情发展的影响分析

不同于传统( Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)SEIR流行病传播动力学模型,本文在近期研究的Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed (vSEIdR)模型基础上加上人口迁徙(Migration) 模块,设计开发了vSEIdRm模型,该模型考虑了跨区域人口迁徙对疫情传播的影响,并允许流行病传播参数随时间变化。本文首先对人口迁移数据进行统计分析,建立其与各省新冠肺炎疫情发展的联系。之后,基于vSEIdRm模型估计了疫情初期各省份来自武汉的输入病例数,并定量刻画了离汉交通管控的效果。研究结果显示,离汉交通管控措施有效地减少了各省份的疫情规模。     

Migration in the light of Poland's 1978 national population census

Internal migration trends in Poland are reviewed for the pre-1939 and post-World War II periods using 1978 census data for voivodships.     

Migration and students' performance: detecting geographical differences following a curves clustering approach

Students'' migration mobility is the new form of migration: students migrate to improve their skills and become more valued for the job market. The data regard the migration of Italian Bachelors who enrolled at Master Degree level, moving typically from poor to rich areas. This paper investigates the migration and other possible determinants on the Master Degree students'' performance. The Clustering of Effects approach for Quantile Regression Coefficients Modelling has been used to cluster the effects of some variables on the students'' performance for three Italian macro-areas. Results show evidence of similarity between Southern and Centre students, with respect to the Northern ones.     

Demography and criminality

The author defines interests shared by the sciences of demography and criminology, with a focus on the importance of information such as age, sex, migration, and fertility as indicators in the study of criminology. Statistical methods used in each field are compared using data from the 1989 USSR census, statistical reports, and selected surveys conducted by the author.     

Ghettos of the mind: the empirical behaviour of indices of segregation and diversity

Summary.  The effect of immigration on social cohesion is a political issue, expressed as a fear that racially skewed residential patterns represent ghettos which prevent integration. Residential patterns have been measured by indices of segregation. The range of indices is reviewed in the paper and measured empirically for England and Wales by using census data for 1991 and 2001, including a new index of migration dispersal. There has been an increase in residential mixing as a result of growing minority populations and their more even spread across localities. These two trends are identified by two commonly used indices of segregation which are moving in opposite directions for the most recent immigrant groups. The sensitivity of each index to modifiable area boundaries makes them unsuitable for evaluation of cities' relative performance. The residential patterns of cities after immigration are more clearly understood by using demographic measures of migration and age structure.     

再议西部地区农村劳动力转移——基于个体决策的研究

从西部农村劳动力个体转移决策的角度,对西部农村劳动力转移的问卷结果进行统计分析和Logit回归,研究可知,劳动力自身素质、外部客观条件和个体偏好是西部农村劳动力转移的影响因素;西部农村家庭收入是影响劳动力转移决策最主要的原因.通过建立收入敏感指数、家庭经济压力指数、个人能力指数和农业生产劳动力需求指数及其阀值对西部农村劳动力进行类型分析,结果表明,西部农村转移劳动力中存在76.93％的非理性转移,未转移劳动力中存在64.3％的未转移富余劳动力.     

Census data issues for epidemiology and health risk assessment: experiences from the Small Area Health Statistics Unit

Summary.  Census data are vital components of epidemiological studies, but the issues that are involved in using these data in such studies are often not fully appreciated. The paper describes some of the problems and uncertainties that arise, and some of the approaches that can be used to address them, based on experience in the Small Area Health Statistics Unit at Imperial College London. Issues considered include the geography of census data (zone design systems, recasting and the role of postcodes), temporal aspects of census data (especially in relation to migration and population change) and information content (especially in relation to characterization of socio-economic status). In the light of these issues, opportunities to improve the resolution and utility of census data for epidemiological studies are discussed.     

新生代农民工家庭式迁移城市意愿影响因素研究——以西安市为例

农民工的家庭式迁移城市是真正完成农村剩余劳动力转移,推进城市化进程的必然途径,而新生代农民工作为当前农民工的新生力量正在逐渐成为农村剩余劳动力的中坚力量,其家庭式迁移城市的意愿受多方面因素的影响,而这些因素恰恰是政府制定政策以引导农民工合理流动有序转移的最根本依据.以西安地区为例,通过对西安城六区进行间卷调查,利用1 040个农民工样本数据,采用层次分析法对新生代农民工家庭式迁移城市意愿影响因素进行分析,确定各影响因素的重要性程度,发现职业收入、外出务工时间、受教育程度、社会保障制度对新生代农民工家庭迁移城市有重要影响,年龄、婚姻状况、户籍制度则影响不明显.