Demographic transformation in Poland

The author presents a general review of the demographic transition in Poland from 1750 to the present day. Official data are used to describe the fluctuations in birth and death rates over this period.     

Fertility in Poland during the 1980s: analysis of a maternity questionnaire

Recent fertility trends in Poland are analyzed using data from a mail survey conducted in 1984. The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of women who gave birth in 1984, their husbands, and their parents are examined. The results show an increase in fertility in the early 1980s, particularly in urban areas.     

Frailty modeling for clustered survival data: an application to birth interval in Bangladesh

The present work demonstrates an application of random effects model for analyzing birth intervals that are clustered into geographical regions. Observations from the same cluster are assumed to be correlated because usually they share certain unobserved characteristics between them. Ignoring the correlations among the observations may lead to incorrect standard errors of the estimates of parameters of interest. Beside making the comparisons between Cox's proportional hazards model and random effects model for analyzing geographically clustered time-to-event data, important demographic and socioeconomic factors that may affect the length of birth intervals of Bangladeshi women are also reported in this paper.     

THE CASE FOR PARITY AND BIRTH-ORDER STATISTICS

Parity refers to the number of (live) births that a woman (or man) has had. Birth order refers to whether a birth is the first, second, third or higher‐order birth of the parent. In the context of low and shifting fertility, parity and birth‐order statistics are becoming increasingly important for understanding fertility trends and patterns, for policy, and for carrying out projections of future fertility. In Australia, the main sources of demographic data are birth, death and marriage registers, and the five‐yearly national census. Both the birth registers and the census are ideally placed to collect data required to calculate parity and birth‐order statistics. However not all Australian states and territories collect or code the necessary information in the birth registers, and the parity question ‘For each female, how many babies has she ever had?’ is only asked every second census; that is, once every 10 years. In this paper, we outline the importance and uses of parity and birth‐order statistics. We discuss the Australian data available at present and their gaps and shortcomings. We then describe the ‘gold standard’ of parity and birth‐order statistics and how Australia can achieve this standard through some minor changes to the data collection process.     

A NOTE ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF CONTRACEPTION IN A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF HUMAN REPRODUCTION

The application of mathematical models of human reproduction to the study of reproductive behaviour as a function of contraceptive behaviour was pioneered by Perrin and Sheps (1963). More recent work in this area continues to focus on an examination of the birth rate as the principal dependent variable. This note suggests an alternative procedure for studying the demographic impact of contraception through the analysis of birth intervals. A mathematical model is formulated for the waiting time between successive live births, and a procedure is described for incorporating into the model certain contraceptive parameters. A controlled experiment is then performed to determine the effect of these parameters on expected child spacing patterns.     

The future of old-age security in the Federal Republic of Germany

The future aspects of old age security in the Federal Republic of Germany are considered primarily according to the criteria of demographic changes to be expected or presumed. The starting point of our simulations is a strongly declining birth rate which effects a drop in the population growth as well as different criteria concerning the age structure. It is shown that, apart from the demographic structure, the economic development is of decisive importance for old age security. By a model variant obtained by a broad spectrum of simulations, it is shown that an increase in the standard of living affecting all population groups (including pensioners) can be attained provided that the manpower potential is well utilized and the labor productivity is progressing satisfactorily. However, by no means can problems concerning strategies of distribution that are likely to appear be solved by a complete denial of the financing procedure by persons currently employed. The social security of the older persons who no longer are gainfully employed can be financed by the current national product. (author's)     

Generalised Linear Models Incorporating Population Level Information: An Empirical Likelihood Based Approach

In many situations information from a sample of individuals can be supplemented by population level information on the relationship between a dependent variable and explanatory variables. Inclusion of the population level information can reduce bias and increase the efficiency of the parameter estimates.Population level information can be incorporated via constraints on functions of the model parameters. In general the constraints are nonlinear making the task of maximum likelihood estimation harder. In this paper we develop an alternative approach exploiting the notion of an empirical likelihood. It is shown that within the framework of generalised linear models, the population level information corresponds to linear constraints, which are comparatively easy to handle. We provide a two-step algorithm that produces parameter estimates using only unconstrained estimation. We also provide computable expressions for the standard errors. We give an application to demographic hazard modelling by combining panel survey data with birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity.     

A Model of Aging and a Shape of the Observed Force of Mortality

A probabilistic model of aging is considered. It is based on the assumption that a random resource, a stochastic process of aging (wear) and the corresponding anti-aging process are embedded at birth. A death occurs when the accumulated wear exceeds the initial random resource. It is assumed that the anti-aging process decreases wear in each increment. The impact of environment (lifestyle) is also taken into account. The corresponding relations for the observed and the conditional hazard rate (force of mortality) are obtained. Similar to some demographic models, the deceleration of mortality phenomenon is explained via the concept of frailty. Simple examples are considered.     

Statistical materials

This is a summary of demographic statistics for the USSR and its constituent republics for the period 1959-1991. Tables include data on population size; rural and urban population; average annual population growth; population by age group; fertility; life expectancy at birth and at selected ages; infant mortality by cause of death, 1989; and mortality of the active population by cause of death, 1989.     

Measurement and analysis of demographic processes: the characteristics of generation

Since it would take too long (100 years) to ascertain all demographic data about a given age group, i.e., all those born in a given year, these data are determined hypothetically by measuring the various characteristics of persons of all ages in a given time period (1-2 years). Also needed is an indicator of the population as a whole; cumulative coefficients are used for this purpose. One of these is the overall coefficient of births, meaning the number of children a women would have over her whole period of fertility if she had the precise number of children at each period in her life as other women of that age. An analogous indicator is used for measuring mortality--the average life expectancy of a person at each stage in his life. The crude coefficient of population reproduction represents the number of girls to which each woman will give birth between the ages of 15 and 50. This has to be corrected by the number of those who will not live to reproductive age. The result is the corrected coefficient of reproduction of the female population. This coefficient is often thought to reflect the population's growth prospects; if less than unity, therefore, the population will not reproduce itself. This is an incorrect interpretation. The impact of immigration and emigration on the population must also be incorportated. In addition to the above hypothetical indicators, we must also develop real population indicators. Techniques must also be employed to evaluate the reliability of these demographic indicators.     

The concept of spatial order and other problems of regional research in demography

The concept of spatial demographic order is introduced and defined as the preferred spatial distribution of a given demographic variable. The results of a multivariate statistical analysis of demographic trends in rural and urban areas in Poland are presented to illustrate the convergence of such trends in the areas studied. The author concludes that the increasing similarity in demographic processes between rural and urban areas is due mainly to migration.     

Estimation of population coverage in the 1990 United States census based on demographic analysis

"This article presents estimates of net coverage of the national population in the 1990 [U.S.] census, based on the method of demographic analysis. The general techniques of demographic analysis as an analytic tool for coverage measurement are discussed, including use of the demographic accounting equation, data components, and strengths and limitations of the method. Patterns of coverage displayed by the 1990 estimates are described, along with similarities or differences from comparable demographic estimates for previous censuses....A final section presents the results of the first statistical assessment of the uncertainty in the demographic coverage estimates for 1990." Comments by Clifford C. Clogg and Christine L. Himes (pp. 1,072-4) and Jeffrey S. Passel (pp. 1,074-7) and a rejoinder by the authors (pp. 1,077-9) are included.     

Demographic analysis and society

The author discusses the science of demography and its place in Soviet society, and suggests that its importance has been underestimated in Soviet scientific research establishments. Furthermore, it is found that a simplistic approach to demographic issues remains a problem and that the methodology and analytical techniques needed to study complex demographic issues are still lacking in Russia. The need to improve the quality of demographic studies is stressed, particularly in the areas of regional, economic, theoretical, and political demography.     

The demographic transformation--a challenge to labor market and social policies

The implications of future demographic trends for labor market and social policies in the Federal Republic of Germany are discussed. The focus is on how trends such as demographic aging and declining fertility will affect the labor market, employment, and old-age security.     

Effects of future population trends on the labor market--analyses based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations

The effects of future population trends, such as demographic aging, declining fertility, and changes in migration, on the labor market in the Federal Republic of Germany are analyzed up to the year 2000. The study is based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations. Topics discussed include demographic trends as a cause of current unemployment, labor market phases and demographic trends since 1950, the projection model used, age-specific projections of the potential labor force, and labor market projections.     

Statistical graduation in local demographic analysis and projection

"This paper considers parametric graduation for mortality, fertility and migration with particular reference to the development of parameterized local and regional demographic projections. Parametric graduations facilitate comparisons of demographic schedules across many areas and across time points--a feature which can be used to advantage in making forecasts of the three demographic components and thus in setting the assumptions for projections. Particular methodological issues raised are the questions of parsimony in fit and...of overdispersion in relation to binomial or Poisson assumptions. The analysis is illustrated with cross-sectional material for the 32 London boroughs and with time series at the level of Greater London."     

Demographic and social changes in the Katowice voivodship

"Since [the] late nineteen-eighties, two important trends in demographic and social urbanisation have been visible. The first is diminution of [the] influence of demographic influences which originate outside the voivodship, the second is a stabilisation (regress in some cases) of some urban centres. The latter is due to a nation-wide demographic transformation as well as to a growth in emigration from traditional urban centres of Katowice conurbation....[The] latest [official] surveys indicate that the named trends are characteristic for a majority of Polish cities over 100,000 since 1990." (EXCERPT)     

Parameterized multistate population dynamics and projections

"This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated [using data primarily from a number of developed countries, particularly Sweden], together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules." The author notes that "the parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise would not be feasible."     

Statistical materials. Part 2: natural population increase in the USSR

Selected vital statistics for the USSR for 1984 are presented. Data are included on birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1983-1984; the distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban areas; age-specific birth rates by union republics; distribution of marriages by age and sex; distribution of married couples by age of husband and wife; and divorces by length of marriage and age of husband and wife.