中国房地产政策回顾与探析

自建国以来,中国的房地产政策经过了计划经济时期住房制度阶段,住房制度改革阶段,住房制度市场化阶段三个时期.伴随着房地产制度性政策和调控性政策的不断配合推出,我国的房地产市场取得了可观的成绩,同时也出现了一些问题.通过回顾并梳理各个阶段的房地产政策,认真分析不同时期房地产政策的作用和影响,针对中国房地产政策的一些问题,提出相应对策,国家制定和完善相关政策,房地产开发企业及相关企业的经营决策,消费者解读政策、理性消费等,应充分考虑到不同阶段不同政策的匹配性和实际影响.随着房地产制度性政策的不断完善,房地产市场的发展会越来越健康,房地产调控政策的数目会逐步减少,中国将建立适应市场经济法则,体现中国国情又符合国际惯例的房地产市场体系.     

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1《财经》2011年3月14日"双轨房"难局从去年底到今年初,房地产市场调控力度不断加强,相关政策措施引发争议亦属空前。1月26日,国务院公布新一轮房地产调控政策(新国八条)     

房地产限购政策实施效果的实证分析——基于双重差分模型的估计

房地产限购政策对遏制房价过快上涨、抑制投资性购房需求具有重要意义。运用我国70个大中城市2009年9月至2011年10月的面板数据,采用双重差分模型对房地产市场限购政策的实施效果进行了系统而严格的实证研究。结果发现,房地产限购政策的实施对我国相关城市的房价有大约1.88%的负面效应,但是短期效果并不明显。     

论中国房地产市场发展中的十大关系

近年来,中国房地产价格增速增幅超过了相当一部分人的承受能力,备受各方关注,被喻为新"三座大山"之一,中央多轮出台调控政策,房地产市场问题有了一定改善,但调控效果还不能令社会各界满意,调控机制尚待建设和完善.近期由于受到美国次贷危机、紧缩政策、保障性住房等政策的影响,深、沪、京三地房地产价格有不同程度的下降,但从内在张力来看,房地产价格上行趋势明显.如何构建房地产价格的内在调整机制,成为房地产健康持续发展的前提.房地产转轨时期的房地产问题是一个复杂的问题,捋清以下十大关系是制定科学调控政策的基础.     

楼市不存在拐点

我认为所谓拐点应该是房地产市场从上升到下降,或是下降幅度较大,持续周期较长。其实2008年的那次"跳水"都不算是拐点,时间太短,半年就扭转了。我一向认为房地产市场是稳定下调的过程,当稳定下调到一定程度,必然会把住宅泡沫挤出去。今年1～9月,全国房地产开发投资44225亿元,同比增长32%,全国商品房销售面积71289万平方米,增长12.9%。从交易量、销售额和平均房价这些数据上看,房地产市场并没有出现拐点,而是房地产内部进行了结构性调整,商品住宅的投资并没有大幅上升和下滑,但保障房和商业地产有一些分配给了房地产投资,所以投     

政策、价格与"财富幻觉"——基于浙江房地产市场的实证检验

本文将1998年以来政府出台的房地产相关政策归纳为温和促买型、持续但外部干预型、抑制供给型、抑制需求型四类,通过政策发布后的市场效应的分析,得出温和促买型政策对价格与成交量有明显的拉动作用,抑制供给型政策短期内有促涨作用,房地产市场价格上升引发“财富幻觉”导致非理性需求出现等观点,并利用浙江省1998年至2005年的相关指标月数据的统计分析与granger因果检验,验证了上述观点的客观存在。     

房地产投资风险控制初探

房地产投资应以风险管理为基础,要对房地产投资风险控制进行界定,房地产投资风险控制具有三个具体措施--风险回避、风险预防和风险抑制及其特点和适用性,其在房地产开发实践中应有具体应用.     

新年贺词

已然过去的2010年是地产行业形式复杂,却又充满机遇与挑战的一年,国家调控房地产业政策的连续出台及央行的两轮加息,房地产市场从短期看进入新一轮调控期。但从国计民生的长远角度讲,国家政策对于房价抑制真正的目的在于保护而并非打压房地产     

2010年全国房地产市场分析

一、2010年市场运行情况2010年中央出台了一系列房地产调控政策,经济手段和行政手段并用,从抑制需求、增加供给、加强监管等方面进行了全方位调控,房地产市场在遭遇"史上最为严厉"调控政策下波动显著。1.政策环境:调控轮番加强,力度空前     

房地产市场系统动力学仿真模型研究 ——以北京市为例

以北京市商品住房市场为例,基于系统动力学理论,从住房供给和住房需求角度确定房价的影响因素,构建房地产市场的系统动力学仿真模型.结合税收政策、 利率政策和土地政策,对2000-2019年商品住房价格进行政策仿真调控,结果显示:土地政策对商品住房价格的影响最大,其次是利率政策,税率政策的影响最小.对房地产市场进行调控,需要以优化土地供应结构为主,合理利用利率政策因地制宜进行贷款利率弹性化调整,并辅之以税收政策,以维持房价稳定、 保障房地产市场健康发展.     

Central banks’ priorities and the left/right partisanship of exchange rates

This study argues that when central banks subordinate all policy goals to achieving price stability greater central bank independence encourages left-wing governments to seek greater exchange rate stability. Such central bank policy priorities make the Left's preferred distributive policies more dependent on the effectiveness of fiscal policy, which under high capital mobility increases with exchange rate stability. In contrast, right-wing governments put greater emphasis on market adjustments and price stability. Hypotheses are tested by estimating the sensitivity of exchange rate variation to partisanship, central bank independence, and the salience of price stability, using a Prais-Winsten estimator and Instrumented Variables, run on pooled cross-section time-series data from 22 OECD countries during 1990-2004.     

Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia

This paper examines the role of central bank credibility in achieving an inflation target and proposes monetary policy rules for Indonesia. Towards that end, we construct and estimate a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy by adapting the theoretical underpinnings of the well-known Batini–Haldane model, along with the Taylor policy rule. Our results indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian central bank to bolster its credibility in order to achieve a lower inflation rate. The inflation–output volatility trade-off frontier we derived from the SSMM shows that a monetary policy rule that targets both inflation and output gaps will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the rule as an additional feedback variable warrants consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.     

Pre- versus post-crisis central banking in Qatar

In the years before the global financial crisis of 2008–2010, Qatar experienced a huge build-up of liquidity surplus in the banking system, mainly driven by surging net capital inflows. This paper identifies various sources of interbank liquidity in Qatar and discusses the various implications of structural primary liquidity surplus for the money market in particular and the economy at large. The paper attempts to evaluate the Qatar Central Bank policy making and conduct during the pre- and post-crisis periods within a framework of the Austrian monetary overinvestment theories, and concludes that the central bank had forcibly committed several forced monetary policy mistakes, which resulted in a breakdown in the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This led to the inability of the central bank to control the interbank interest rate and to an accelerating inflation rate during the pre-crisis years. In contrast, a dramatic change in the central bank's monetary policy framework and a deliberate monetary policy mistake on behalf of the central bank resulted in a restoration of the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, stabilization of the interbank interest rate close to the central bank's policy rate and a sharp deceleration in the inflation rate in the post-crisis period. The paper concludes by offering brief policy recommendations.     

宏观金融博弈分析与我国货币政策实践

西方经济学界将博弈分析方法推广到金融领域取得了理论成果,尤其以宏观金融博弈分析在20世纪90年代的最新发展为主要内容.完全信息动态博弈和不完全信息动态博弈两类模型,对货币政策的连贯性与可信度以及中央银行声誉做出了重新解释,货币政策目标、货币政策操作程序、中央银行独立性及政策透明度等热点问题在我国金融体制改革实践中的作用是至关重要的.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy in small open economies

This paper examines the relative effectiveness of the use of direct and indirect monetary policy instruments in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, by estimating a restricted Vector Autoregressive model with Exogenous Variables (VARX). The model captures the dynamic interaction of the key sectors in the economy and it accounts for the fact that the banking system in those countries is characterized by high levels of excess reserves. Also, the study assumes that the central bank conducts monetary policy using a Taylor-type rule, and it evaluates the effects of a reserve requirement policy. The results show that although a positive shock to the policy interest rate has a direct effect on commercial banks’ interest rates, there is a weak transmission to the real variables. Furthermore, an increase in the required reserve ratio is successful in reducing private sector credit and excess reserves, while at the same time alleviating pressures on the exchange rate. The findings therefore indicate that central banks in small open economies should consider using reserve requirements as a complement to interest rate policy, to achieve their macroeconomic objectives.     

Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach

In this paper we use a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model to analyse the interest rate pass-through between interbank and retail bank rates in the Euro area. Empirical results, based on monthly data for the period 2003–2011, show that during periods of financial distress bank lending rates to both households and non-financial corporations show a reduction of their degree of pass-through from the money market rate. Significant sectoral heterogeneities characterise the transmission mechanism of monetary policy impulses, with rates on loans to non-financial firms being more affected by changes in the interbank rate than loans to households, both in times of high volatility and in normal market conditions.     

社区社会企业的责任承担及培育发展

改革开放以来,中国社会处于快速转型期,政府失灵、市场失灵及社区服务组织失灵的现象给社区建设带来了严峻的挑战。社区社会企业作为一种新型的社区服务组织,对这种挑战做出了积极的回应。本文介绍了社区社会企业的发展现状,分析了社区社会企业在推动社区居民就业、提高社区服务水平、承担社区环保中的责任,并提出社区社会企业的培育发展需要政府、社会企业家、志愿者、社会支持机构共同努力的对策建议。     

Youth‐oriented active labour market policies and economic crisis: Explaining policy effort in Greece and Portugal

The starting point of this study is the implementation of seemingly similar youth‐oriented labour market policies in Greece and Portugal. Both countries have suffered high youth unemployment rates and have been pressured to restructure their labour market as part of the rescue programmes adopted during the European sovereign debt crisis. Despite convergence in terms of policy trajectories, there is a significant divergence in employment outcomes. In Portugal, youth‐oriented policies were better‐targeted and structured. Their implementation has been more effective and has involved the social partners from the outset of the crisis. In Greece, policy design failures, administrative weaknesses and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions have limited the dynamics of youth‐oriented policies thus increasing youth insecurity. Τhe analysis suggests that convergence in policy content can be compatible with divergence in terms of outcomes.     

我国自然资源环境保护的财政政策评价与选择

自然环境是一种公共产品,具有很强的经济外部性特征。市场自身无法对环境资源进行充分有效的配置,这为政府干预环境保护提供了机会和理由。行政与法律的单一强制性手段难以完成环境保护的任务,且执行成本很高,需要与财政政策配合使用。与发达国家相比,我国环境保护的财政政策存在一定差距,只有进一步地调整与改进,才能更好地为环境保护服务。     

Children forever: The search for origins among Chilean adults who were adopted

There has been a global increase in the number of adults who were adopted 1 1 To make the text more readable, we use the term “adult adoptee” rather than our preferred term “people who were adopted.” We prefer the latter term because it does captures our understanding that adoption is a practice and a life experience and not necessarily a permanent fixture of the identities of people who were adopted.
searching for their origins. This trend has promoted the interest of social sciences researchers, as well as carry out the obligations of states to provide specialized services. In this article, we present some results from the first qualitative study that explores the experiences of some Chilean adults who were adopted and searched for their origins in Chile through the National Service of Minor's Search for Origins Program. The narratives of the participants show that, in spite of legislative changes, a series of barriers and contradictions continue to exist, which make it difficult to guarantee the right to know one's origins. The legal and technical frameworks and practices analysed show how difficult it is to dismantle the “clean break” principle. They also highlight the persistence of the image of adoptees as “minors” who need the “protection” of their parents or professionals. We discuss the different challenges to be considered by researchers, practitioners, and policy‐makers involved in adoption policies and practices.