Data sources for trend extrapolation in technological forecasting

Trend extrapolation is only one part of technological forcasting. This tool must be used carefully, for the past is an indication of the future only when the environmental structure of the past remains constant in the future. If one can indeed assume that no changes have taken place then there are a series of models available for trend by extrapolation. All such models deal with empirical data, and this article has attempted to suggest some methods that will provide the forecaster with the capability to develop a data base.     

Approaches to technological forecasting as a planning tool

The various techniques discussed in this paper illustrate to managers that a number of useful approaches are available to them for approaching planning problems. Not every technique discussed can be applied to all problems. Problems related to available time, money, and information for planning can limit the usefulness of some techniques. The successful manager in light of existing constraints will develop integrative forecasts that can be used to reduce the risks of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty.     

Computerized industrial forecasting for planning in central government

This article is based on a talk presented to the I.B.M. Conference on Management Science and Strategic Planning, which was held in September 1970. It relates therefore to work on medium term industrial forecasting that was undertaken in the former Ministry of Technology. Following the announcement of the Reorganization of Central Government (Cmnd 4506) the team developing this work was transferred to the Treasury so that input-output work could be more closely integrated with macro economic model development work undertaken there. More recent developments were described in a paper presented to the 1971 Norwich Conference on Input-Output and Throughput by A. A. McLean of H.M. Treasury.     

Evaluating and regulating successive major technological advances—International telecommunications

The paper reviews the extraordinarily rapid technological advances in international communications by submarine cables and by satellites as the basis for examining: (a) US regulatory efforts to maintain competitive relations as well as (b) attendant effects on operating costs, service capabilities, utilization rates and prices to users.     

技术创新对企业集团能量效率的影响与对策

引用动物捕食的最优方法的进化论观点研究了技术创新对企业集团能量效率的影响 ,提出了相应的对策 .首先 ,描述了一类企业集团的能量效率的基本模型 ,给出了一个关于技术与市场需求关系的假设 .接着 ,研究了技术创新对横向型企业集团能量效率的影响 ,在建立起模型之后 ,证明了提高核心企业的能量效率的充分性定理 ,为核心企业提供了对策方法 .然后 ,研究了核心企业是下游企业的纵向型企业集团 ,建立了模型 ,并获得了类似的结论 .最后 ,举例说明了核心企业应该怎样根据能量效率进行决策的思想 .总之 ,把一个企业集团的成长看成一群动物的进化 ,并且试图将进化论的思想应用到经济研究中     

Energy forecasting

A selective and critical review of the state of the art in Energy Forecasting as perceived in assessing future interactions between fuel and feedstock availability for the chemical industry. Models are required of Energy supply and demand and their interaction through the energy market which is subject to national and international policies and conflict and to environmental restrictions and legislation. Significant advances have been made in modelling supply but neither an economic nor a technological approach alone is adequate for modelling demand. In particular there is lack of an adequate model of the industrial sector that reflects the diversity of the production function and adequately incorporates the relationship between technological change, capital investment and energy usage. In the UK the structure of industrial models is over constrained by the aggregation-structure of the national energy statistics. The economic and political forces required to bring about major changes in the capital infra structure are often ignored. There is need to establish logical lower practical limits to energy usage, to develop a system logic structure that provides transfer parameters between various levels and type of aggregation, to develop models which allow probability distributing of variables to be included and to model more effectively the interactions across the boundaries of economics, social and political science, physics, chemistry and mathematics.     

技术群体成员变动、知识流耦合与产业创新网络抗毁性:技术异质性的调节作用

开放式创新盛行的背景下,如何提升产业创新网络应对创造性毁灭的能力是学界和业界关注的重点。针对产业创新网络结果研究中动态中观层面的缺失,本研究聚焦整体网视角下技术群体的成员变动影响产业创新网络抗毁性的多层级作用关系,分析技术群体耦合的中介作用和群间技术异质性的调节作用。本研究以新能源产业主要技术领域的138个专利引用网络为研究对象,执行网络拓扑分析和层次回归分析进行实证检验。结果表明:技术群体耦合在技术群体成员变动与产业创新网络抗毁性的关系中起非线性中介作用,群间技术异质性正向调节中介作用的前半段路径。本研究拓展了技术群体的动态属性研究及其与产业创新网络抗毁性的跨层级关系研究,深化了技术群体成员变动如何影响产业创新网络抗毁性的作用机制。研究结论揭示了技术群体微观成员变动影响更高层次网络结果的作用机制,对产业政策部门如何构建抗毁性较高的创新网络具有重要的实践价值。     

合作技术创新对技术联盟能量效率的影响

通过建立描述技术联盟能量效率的基本模型,研究了合作技术创新对技术联盟能量效率的影响,提出了技术联盟能量效率提高的充分条件,最后得出2条结论①纵向技术联盟比横向技术联盟稳定;②技术联盟比企业集团更有利于技术创新.     

Organization for technological change

This is the third and last in the series of articles on Planning for Technological Innovation. It deals with change, which is seldom predictable in useful detail. A company can therefore best pursue its vital purpose through a preconditioned opportunism, applied with forcefulness and pertinacity. Since forecasting is difficult, business should be organized for change and a corresponding structure is proposed, institutionalizing a readiness for adaptation. Dynamic or adaptive planning is then tested against an historic case of innovative vigour.     

Integrating forecasting and planning

Specialization inhibits or prohibits interdisciplinary communication among diverse areas. It contributes to segmentation, which becomes a serious problem when several of those areas should depend upon knowledge which exists in other fields. Forecasting and Planning are two such areas, and it is the purpose of this article to show how planning can benefit by the proper utilization of existing knowledge in the field of forecasting.     

On Bayesian composite forecasting

Often decision makers have several forecasts of an uncertain and operationally relevant random variable. A rich literature now exists which argues that in this situation the decision maker should consider forming a forecast as a weighted average of each of the individual forecasts. In this paper, composite forecasting is discussed in a Bayesian context. The ability of the user to control the impact of the data on his composite weights is illustrated by an example using expert opinion forecasts of US hog prices.     

Future forecasting with LEAP

A rapidly changing business environment has caused numerous firms to adopt some form of environmental assessment as part of their strategic planning process. Extrapolative techniques and trend analysis are useful when forecasting for the short-term and in comparatively stable environments. Futuristic methodologies are appropriate in turbulent environments with long-term planning requirements. The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting developed by the author, is explained in detail using examples from a recent study which used top level life insurance executives to predict the relative likelihood of occurrence of planning dates for a set of events in the socio-political environment of business.     

The futility of forecasting

Long-range forecasting is an integral part of planning, but relying on its accuracy may be a mistake. The landscape is strewn with often wildly inaccurate forecasts. This article studies performances of some forecasts, analyses factors contributing to forecast error, and suggests ways in which management may deal with the uncertainty resulting from faulty forecasting performances.     

From backcasting towards forecasting

A comprehensive study of expected and actual industry growth patterns has suggested that a number of shortcomings in statistical forecasting derive from the role of “backcasting” in widely used methods of estimating probable future adjustment paths. After examining attendant problems and the conceptual bases for ameliorating them, attention in the paper centers on describing a technique for effecting some of these improvements and on analyzing the findings obtained by applying it to 28 series over periods of 60–80 years. Resulting implications for strengthening business and economic forecasting efforts are then discussed.     

Subjective probability in forecasting

Practical examples of the use of subjective probability in forecasting are rare in the literature, yet in long term forecasting there is a large subjective element in choosing between alternatives. The paper indicates the background to the preparation of such a forecast in the whisky industry and discusses the benefits to be derived from a quantitative assessment with due emphasis on the recognition of the subjective nature of the quantification.     

产业转型中转型企业技术能力研究评述——兼论转型企业技术能力再造途径

在对企业产业转型和技术能力研究现状分析的基础上,提出产业变迁背景下,基于原有技术能力挖掘和技术学习的转型企业技术能力培育模式,并对影响模式选择的关键因素进行分析;构建了技术知识整合平台与技术能力整合模型,探寻产业转型中转型企业技术能力的再造路径和内在规律.