世界各国就业人口增长模式的比较研究

<正> 世界各国就业人口增长有四种基本模式。不同的增长模式是在各国特定的社会经济条件下形成的,它反映着各该国家(地区)的历史特点。本文仅就这四种基本模式的现实形态及其对社会、经济的影响,作简要的比较研究。一西方经济发达国家,在六十年代的经济高速发展时期,就业人口增长多采取“高增长——低就业”的模式,即经济增长率较高、就业人口增长速度相对较低并且明显低于同期劳动生产率的增长速度。这种就业人口增长模式,最有经济活力。我们称这种模式为A型模式。美国、联邦德国、加拿大以及英、法、意、日等国,在六十年代和七十年代     

流动人口的社会特征及其收入影响因素分析

文章作者通过实际调查和分析结果证明,在经济发达地区打工的流动人口的性别、年龄、受教育年限、在本单位工作年限等基本社会特征均对其收入水平存在显著性影响。男性比女性、已婚者比未婚者年龄大、收入高。受教育年限、在本单位工作时间和年龄的增长能不同程度地提高流动就业人口的收入水平。流动人口只有在经历了一段时间的尝试,掌握了生产技术并积累起工作经验后,就业岗位和收入水平才能相对稳定下来。一部分流动人口已明确表示愿意在打工地区定居下来,且收入相对较高或家乡与就业地区生活水平差距较大的流动人口更倾向于正式迁移,男性和受教育年限较长者移民经济发达地区的愿望也更明显。     

产业转型背景下就业人口与产业发展关系研究综述

就业人口变动与产业发展之间存在着必然联系,随着工业化和城市化的不断深入,产业与就业的关系也在不断发生变化。本文通过大量文献检索,重点梳理了关于就业人口与产业发展在数量、结构和空间等方面的相关关系;结果表明：产业与就业是互为因果,彼此作用的,但以产业和经济对就业人口的作用为主,就业人口对经济和产业的效应作为一种反馈,作用力较弱。     

山东省城市职能分类探讨

采用城市就业人口资料,运用统计分析和比较分析相结合的方法,根据最新的统计资料,对山东省全部城市进行了统一的职能分类。将17个地级市分为省级、省内地区级、地级三级城市。对各个城市的一般职能、优势职能、显著职能也作了详细的探讨,通过分类可以发现山东省城市体系职能结构存在的问题,认清城市职能结构发展趋势及优化对策。     

开拓创新 深入开展企业计生协工作

沈阳化工股份有限公司是以生产化工原料为主的国家大型企业,2005年被评为全国计生协先进单位。中央《决定》指出,改革管理体制,转变政府职能,进一步落实机关、企事业、社会团体法定代表人的人口和计划生育工作责任制,充分发挥计划生育协会等群众团体在基层人口和计划生育工作中的生力军作用。为此,沈阳化工股份有限公司不断创新,深入开展企业计生协工作,取得了明显的成效,其主要做法是:     

新型城镇化视角下少数民族地区就业创造力分析——以临夏回族自治州为例

新型城镇化应该强化产业支撑作用,产业是新型城镇化的持续动力。本文在宏观比较西部地区主要省份的经济发展与城镇化现状之后,分析了甘肃省内各市州,特别是临夏州城镇化发展中存在的产业支撑问题,利用就业弹性系数量化了经济发展对于就业人口的拉动作用。通过细分行业的就业创造能力系数,建立预测模型,并利用临夏州2016年、2020年的经济发展预期,估算了三种情景下产业发展对于新型城镇化战略的就业人口吸收能力。     

外来劳动力聚集地区的户籍与劳动管理体制改革问题

论文综述了近年来中国户籍制度改革的情况 ,对户籍改革领先地区的人口与区位特征作了分析 ,指出目前的户籍制度改革对外来劳动力聚集地区的户籍管理制度带来明显的冲击。由于外来劳动力聚集地区的人口与区位特征 ,使这些地区的改革难度比较大 ,因此论文对外来劳动力聚集地区的户籍改革问题提出一些看法。     

越南考察见闻

中国人口信息网络工作考察团一行五人于１９９７年１２月１５至２３日在越南社会主义共和国进行了访问。考察团拜会了越南国家人口与计划生育委员会以及有关的政府部门和社会团体,走访了一些人口研究单位,参观了省、地区、乡的计划生育管理和服务机构,并深入到计划生育...     

城镇化进程中吉林省农村就业人口老龄化问题研究

城镇化进程带动了社会的全面发展。同时,农村就业人口老龄化造成农村就业人口素质下降问题使得农业发展陷入困境。要解决城镇化引起的农村就业人口老龄化问题,保证城镇化与农业协调平稳发展尤为关键。本文通过分析吉林省城镇化进程中农村就业人口老龄化现状,根据吉林省农村就业人口老龄化实际情况,提出推动小城镇建设,发挥小城镇"亚核心"作用;发展农业园区,推动城乡一体化发展;提高农村就业人口劳动素质的对策建议,从而推动城镇化与农业共同发展。     

关于在《人口与计划生育法》中完善各类社会组织职责问题的探讨

我国的各级各类机关、社会团体、企业事业单位等社会组织,作为我国人口与计划生育的重要参与者,特别是在城区,一直发挥着十分重要的作用,但<人口与计划生育法>中对它们职责的规定是不全面的,本文对此问题进行了分析,提出了今后对<人口与计划生育法>的修订完善建议.     

Is Local Financial Health Associated with Citizens’ Quality of Life?

Few studies have analysed the results of public management in terms of social welfare. However, the financial health of local governments is in decline, which means that they are no longer able to provide public services that require financial obligations. This generally results in a reduction in the quality/quantity of public services provided by local governments, thus affecting citizens’ quality of life, since the most important welfare needs are usually related to public services. This study is an original approach to understanding the importance of the financial health of local governments in relation to social welfare. We selected a sample composed of 76 Spanish cities for the period 2008–2010. The results show that citizens who live in municipalities with good financial health have a higher quality of life than others. In general, citizens from municipalities governed by right-wing parties with low political competition tend to have higher levels of quality of life.     

Birth and death in cities in the developing world

City dwellers in Sub-Saharan Africa have increased roughly 600% in the last 35 years. Throughout the developing world, cities have expanded at a rate that has far outpaced rural population growth. Extensive data document lower fertility and mortality rates in cities than in rural regions. But slums, shantytowns, and squatters' settlements proliferate in many large cities. Martin Brockerhoff studies the reproductive and health consequences of urban growth, with an emphasis on maternal and child health. Brockerhoff reports that child mortality rates in large cities are highest among children born to mothers who recently migrated from rural areas or who live in low-quality housing. Children born in large cities have about a 30% higher risk of dying before they reach the age of 5 than those born in smaller cities. Despite this, children born to migrant mothers who have lived in a city for about a year have much better survival chances than children born in rural areas to nonmigrant mothers and children born to migrant mothers before or shortly after migration. Migration in developing countries as a whole has saved millions of children's lives. The apparent benefits experienced in the 1980s may not occur in the future, as cities continue to grow and municipal governments confront an overwhelming need for housing, jobs, and services. Another benefit is that fertility rates in African cities fell by about 1 birth per woman as a result of female migration from villages to towns in the 1980s and early 1990s. There will be an increasing need for donors and governments to concentrate family planning, reproductive health, child survival, and social services in cities, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, because there child mortality decline has been unexpectedly slow, overall fertility decline is not yet apparent in most countries, and levels of migration to cities are anticipated to remain high.     

就业状况、社会保障与农民工城市间再流动意愿

本文基于浙江省2513个进城农民工样本,应用描述性统计方法对农民工的就业状况和社会保障进行分析,并建立有序Probit模型对新老两代农民工及不同性别农民工的城市间再流动意愿的影响因素进行了探讨。研究发现,就业状况、社会保障对农民工的城市间再流动意愿产生了重要的影响。此外,家庭结构、流动状况、受教育程度等因素也是影响农民工的城市间再流动意愿的重要因素。这些因素的影响存在着一定的性别差异与代别差异。     

The dependence of marriage migrations in Japan on personal factors and ecological variables

Marriage is an important migration‐inducing life‐cycle event. This paper uses a nested logit model to explain the interprefectural migration behaviors at marriage by personal factors and prefectural attributes, based on the micro data of the 1986 national migration survey of Japan. Before marriage, each person is considered a potential migrant making a two‐level decision: (1) to stay or depart and (2) to choose a destination. The main findings are as follows.

Destination choice propensities were affected by such attributes of potential destination as income (+), employment growth (+), distance (‐), contiguity (+), and linguistic similarity (+). Non‐natives appeared to be less sensitive to the attraction of economic opportunities. Personal factors were less important than prefectural attributes in affecting destination choice propensities.

Departure propensities were affected by not only such attributes of origin prefecture as income (‐), employment growth (‐), and population density (+) but also the “inclusive variable”; (+), which reflected the attractiveness of the rest of the system. Despite being strongly emphasized in the literature, sibling status was less important than gender, nativity and education in affecting departure propensities. Personal factors were much more important than prefectural attributes in determining the departure propensities.     

赶超行为、要素市场扭曲对中国就业的影响——来自微观企业的数据分析

文章使用2001～2007年微观企业数据分析中国地方政府经济赶超行为与要素市场扭曲对就业的影响,发现地方政府的赶超行为和要素市场扭曲共同导致资本密集型产业超常发展,并诱发有偏的技术进步,形成资本要素对劳动力要素的替代,最终造成经济快速增长而就业吸纳能力下降。检验结果显示,赶超行为和要素市场扭曲是抑制中国制造业企业就业量增加的重要原因之一,并对不同规模企业就业效应的影响存在差异。因此,作者认为,应纠正经济发展中的赶超行为、缓解要素市场扭曲,以逐步实现符合地区资源禀赋的技术进步,最终减少技术进步对就业的替代作用从而增加就业。     

Social Capital,Government and Democracy Satisfaction,and Happiness in Turkey: A Comparison of Surveys in 1999 and 2008

Based on data from a 1999 and a 2008 European Values Survey, the main objective of this study is to explore the relationship between a variety of social capital indicators, satisfaction with government and democracy, and subjective well-being. Happiness and life satisfaction were used as outcome measures of subjective well-being. The indicators of social capital used in this study are general trust, trust in institutions, political engagement, concern for others, societal norms, and membership in volunteer organizations. The analyses reveal a significant increase in happiness, life satisfaction, and many social capital variables between 1999 and 2008. Generalized trust, trust in institutions, government satisfaction, and democracy satisfaction are positive correlates of well-being, although some relationships are significant only in 2008. Several demographic variables are also linked with subjective well-being such as income, employment status, age, gender, and education. We discuss the findings in relation to the significant societal, economic, and political changes experienced in Turkey between 1999 and 2008. Policy implications are also emphasized such as improved trust among individuals, trustworthiness of government institutions, and functioning of democracy.     

Political Distrust and Social Capital in Europe and the USA

Levels of rising political distrust in the USA and parts of Europe attracted political scientists’ attention in the 1990s, and urged them to look at possible consequences of this phenomenon for the functioning of democracies and social life. Approximately during the same period, from a sociological viewpoint, social capital theorists started studying the effects of declining social capital on political and economic life. In this article, we looked at the relationship between political distrust and social capital from an interdisciplinary perspective. We studied the relationship in six European countries from three regions (North-West, South and East), and the USA, and we were interested in the question of whether this relationship varies over the regions, or whether it is approximately the same everywhere. We used ISPP data from the 2004 wave, which included a range of social capital indicators and political distrust items. Social capital was subdivided into four dimensions, namely, networks (membership of organizations), interpersonal or social trust, social norms (citizenship norms), and linking social capital (political activities). First we studied the effect of political distrust on these four dimensions of social capital, while controlling for other variables such as political efficacy, political interest and a set of socio-structural background variables. One of our main findings was that the only significant effect of political distrust we found throughout all countries was a negative effect on one dimension of social capital, namely, interpersonal trust: the more people distrust politicians and people in government, the less they trust other people in general, even when controlled for all other variables. The reverse relationship led us to the same conclusion: the more people tend to trust people in general, the less they distrust politics, a result we found in all countries. This finding refutes the claim that there is no or either only a very weak relationship between political and social trust, as some have strongly argued before. Other important political attitudes connected to social capital were political interest and political efficacy, and for political distrust it was external efficacy. Significant socio-economic factors were religiousness and educational level for membership of voluntary organizations, educational level for interpersonal trust, religiousness for citizenship norms, and educational level and age for political activities. The reciprocal relationship was strongest in the USA and North-Western Europe, as were the explained variances of our (more extensive) regression models. In Southern and Eastern Europe other factors appear to be at work which influence both social capital and political distrust.     

Social Indicators and Voting: The Turkish Case

The aim of this article is to set out the various explanations of voting behaviour in Turkey. Its principal intellectual motivation is to present the political and social indicators that shape voting in such a way as to explain how an activity which is so crucial for democratic life is also based upon voters’ values and surrounding political context. Although the number of empirical work on voting behaviour in Turkey is increasing there is a considerable room for testing alternative variables and research tools in order to expand the academic knowledge on the problematic. Findings ratified that the political and personal values coupled with the other social factors have considerable impact on the voting behaviour in Turkey. Additionally this research also proved that these factors work differently for the competing political parties. Hence the contribution of this study is the introduction of an explicit analysis on the impact of different social and political factors that are salient in voting behaviour and magnitudes of these factors on different political parties by using a public database. Thus this study will not only uncover the relevancy of the variables in the literature for Turkish voters but also it will highlight the meaning and significance of these factors for different political parties.     

What is the Influence of News Media on People’s Perception of Corruption? Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches

Does the source of one’s news media have a systematic effect on one’s perception of political corruption? While numerous studies have investigated the extent to which media affects trust in institutions, or the polarization of political values, this study shifts the focus on to how one’s media source conceived here as social media versus traditional media affects the perception of corruption in 2 ways. First, we hypothesize that citizens who consume their news predominately from social media will have higher perceptions of political corruption than consumers of more traditional media sources. Second, we hypothesize that perceptions among social media consumers will be more polarized. Specifically, we argue that the gap in corruption perception between supporters of government and opposition political parties will be larger among social media consumers compared to traditional news consumers. We test our hypotheses using newly collected survey data from the European Quality of Government Index survey from 2017, which contains nearly 78,000 respondents in 21 countries in the European Union. Estimating our model with both parametric and non-parametric approaches, we find robust empirical support for two of our 3 hypotheses.

     

空间溢出效应视角下环境规制的就业效应研究

我国劳动力就业和环境规制存在显著的空间相关性,运用空间杜宾模型检验环境规制对劳动力就业的空间溢出效应,发现环境规制对劳动力就业存在显著的负向空间外溢效应,相对于地理距离空间权重矩阵而言,经济距离空间权重矩阵下环境规制对劳动力就业的负向空间溢出效应要小一些。研究结果显示,我国地方政府在环境规制上存在逐底竞争倾向,环境规制的就业创造效应仍显不足,要加强对地方政府的环境绩效考核,相邻地方政府要形成环境规制协同机制,探索不同地区环境规制的创新触发机制,倒逼企业进行绿色创新,使环境规制驱动创新带来的就业创造能弥补因污染产业减少带来的就业损失。