子女孩次性别结构与女性再生育——基于孩次性别递进生育率的分析

现有子女的孩次性别结构是影响女性再生育的重要因素。使用中国2000年人口普查数据和时期孩次性别递进生育指标对女性生育水平进行了测算。结果显示,女性普遍生育但终身只生育一个孩子的比例很大,基于孩次性别结构的生育行为体现了男孩偏好;城市和镇在生育第一孩时就存在性别选择;第一个孩子是女孩的女性生育二孩的可能性较大,且二孩是男孩的比例显著大于是女孩的比例;第一个孩子是男孩的城市和镇的女性大部分不再生育,而农村女性有很大比例会生育二孩,但几乎不存在性别选择。采用某地区2019年的数据进行补充验证,同样发现:只有一个女孩的女性相比较只有一个男孩的女性生育者生第二孩的可能性要高很多,以上研究发现对当前二孩生育行为具有一定的启示意义。     

Sex preference versus number preference: the case of Korea

The author argues that the effect of sex preference must be disentangled from the effect of number preference in Korea. This study tests--with hazard models--the effect of the number of previous children on the next birth according to the sex composition of previous children. Data were obtained from the 1974 Korean Fertility Survey. This paper also analyzes the timing of childbearing in recent periods in order to determine whether replacement-level fertility is temporary or permanent. The ideal number of children declined from 3.9 children in 1965 to 2.1 in 1991. The age-specific fertility rates for ages 20-24 years declined rapidly during the late 1980s. The fertility rates among women aged 25-29 years and 30-34 years increased during 1985-90. The proportion of fertility among women aged 20-29 years increased from 67.9% in 1975 to 86.6% in 1984. Women born in the late baby boom period of the late 1950s to mid-1960s reached prime reproductive age during the late 1980s and 1990s, but the crude birth rate remained about the same during 1985-92. A higher percentage of women (22.4%) born during 1955-59 remained single in 1990. During 1960-90, the percentage of women aged 20-24 years who were married declined. These trends indicate later age at childbearing and an explanation for the temporary nature of below-replacement fertility in the late 1980s. Korean women did not want to have more than 2 children, and the interval between first and second births increased since 1985. Among pregnancies of parity 2 conceived since 1985, over 90% of women with at least one son ended subsequent pregnancies by abortion compared to only 59% without sons. Hazard models of 1974 data reveal that son preference had an important effect on fertility. Fertility was higher among women with only daughters. Findings suggest that the value of sons must be measured at the societal and not at the individual level.     

The difference in unwanted births between blacks and whites

Blacks are more likely than whites to have unwanted births. A common explanation for that difference is that blacks use less effective contraceptive methods, use contraception less effectively, and use contraception less often than whites. Analysis of data from 17 cities in our family planning evaluation project suggested that, among women living in low-income neighborhoods, the black-white difference in unwanted births was not due to (1) blacks reaching desired completed parity at younger ages than whites, (2) differences in age or parity in our black and white samples, (3) black-white differences in current use of physician-administered contraception, or (4) blacks being more likely than whites to adopt physician-administered contraception after having an unwanted birth. Black-white differences which might have contributed to relatively more unwanted births among blacks were (1) blacks desired fewer children, (2) blacks were less likely than whites to use nonphysician-administered methods and more likely than whites to use no contraception, and (3) blacks had higher failure rates than whites subsequent to the adoption of physician-administered methods and when not using those methods. Comparisons are made with the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies, and program implications of the findings discussed.     

Is Stepfamily Status Associated With Cohabiting and Married Women’s Fertility Behaviors?

Children from prior relationships potentially complicate fertility decision-making in new cohabitations and marriages. On the one hand, the “value of children” perspective suggests that unions with and without stepchildren have similar—and deliberate—reasons for shared childbearing. On the other hand, multipartnered fertility (MPF) research suggests that childbearing across partnerships is often unintended. Using the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth and event-history models, I examine the role of stepfamily status on cohabiting and married women’s fertility and birth intendedness, with attention to union type and stepfamily configuration. Adjusting for covariates, women in stepfamily unions are more likely to have a first shared birth in a union than women in unions in which neither partner has children from past relationships, but stepfamily births are less likely to be intended than unintended. Further, this association varies by union type: married women have similar birth risks across stepfamily status, but births are less likely to be intended in marital stepfamilies. For cohabitors, women in a stepfamily are more likely to have a birth than women in nonstepfamily unions, with no differences in intendedness. Configuration (whose children and how many) also matters; for instance, women with one child from a past relationship are more likely to have a birth and to have an intended than unintended birth than women with other stepfamily configurations. It appears that children from either partner’s prior relationships influences subsequent fertility decision-making, undermining the utility of the “value of children” perspective for explaining childbearing behaviors in complex families.     

性别偏好如何影响家庭生育数量?——来自中国城市家庭的实证研究

家庭生育数量会受到性别偏好的影响,但影响方向和作用机制还未达成共识。文章利用全国城市青年调查数据,对性别偏好和家庭生育数量之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,性别偏好并不等同于男孩偏好,其内容呈现出多元化特点;无性别偏好在城市已婚已育青年中所占比重最高。不同性别偏好对家庭生育数量的作用方向和强度有所差异:性别数量双偏好会显著提升家庭生育数量;与无性别偏好相比较,单性别偏好也会提升家庭生育数量,但女孩偏好对家庭生育数量的提升作用更强也更显著。     

Missing the Target? Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S.

Building on a framework suggested by Bongaarts (2001)and using data from the 1979 National LongitudinalSurvey of Youth, we describe the correspondencebetween intended family size and observed fertilityfor the 1957 to 1961 birth cohorts of U.S. women andmen. Over an 18-year period (1982–2000), we showthat while aggregate intentions are quite stable,discrepancies are very common at the individual level.Women and men were more likely to err in predictingnumber of additional births in the period 1982–2000 thanto hit their target number. A very strong predictor of over-and underachieving fertility is initial intended parity. Thosewho intended more than two children tended to have fewerchildren than intended, while those who intended fewer thantwo children tended to have more children than intended. Inaddition and consistent with life course arguments, thoseunmarried in 1982, childless in 1982, and (for women) stillin school in 1982 were most likely to underachieve their 2000intended parity (i.e., have fewer children than intended). Weconclude by reflecting on how the circumstances that allowdiscrepancies between intentions and behavior to almost``balance'' in the U.S. may cumulate differently elsewhere toproduce much lower fertility.     

Parity and the expected consequences of childbearing

In this study 163 young married women with 0, 1, or 2 children described the advantages and disadvantages of having a (another) child in the next three years and the expectations of significant others regarding their childbearing behavior. Childless women were more likely than women at first and second parity to mention self-fulfillment, pleasing parents, strengthening their marriage, less time and freedom, interference with career and education, being emotionally unprepared, and creating friction in their marriage. Women with one child were most likely to mention companionship and achieving family size goals. For women with two children gender preference and less time for present children were particularly salient consequences. Women with one child report experiencing the strongest pronatalist normative pressures but the perceived preferences of significant others were most closely related to own childbearing plans for childless women. The results are discussed in terms of a parity specific approach to the study of motivations for parenthood.The research reported here was supported by Grant HD 10391-01, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Robyn Boyer is now an independent research consultant in Sacramento, California. Requests for reprints should be addressed to Thomas J. Crawford, Program in Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine, California, 92717.     

The temporal relationship of marriage,conception, and birth in Massachusetts

An investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage. Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.     

Age at last birth and its components

This paper examines the ways in which the behavior of twentieth century cohorts of American women changed simultaneously in the three components of fertility that determine age at last birth--age at first birth, spacing between subsequent births, and parity progression ratios of subsequent births--to produce changes in the timing of the completion of childbearing. It decomposes changes in the mean age at last birth among cohorts and between whites and nonwhites to changes in these three components. To perform these analyses, we developed and applied a method to estimate the distributions and means of ages and last births, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios from age- and parity-specific fertility rates available from vital statistics data. Results show that the cohorts increased and decreased their age at first birth, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios of lower and higher birth orders in almost every possible combination so as to achieve a relatively young age at final birth.     

Fertility history, health, and health changes in later life: a panel study of British women and men born 1923-49

We investigated associations between later-life health and fertility history for women and men, using the British Household Panel Survey. We modelled health and its rate of change jointly with sample retention over an 11-year period. For women, childlessness is associated with limitation of activity for health reasons and faster acquisition of the limitation. High parity (four or more children) is associated with poorer health for both women and men. For the parous, this association is also found when age at first birth is controlled. Early parenthood is associated with poorer health. For parents of two or more children, a birth interval of less than 18 months is associated with having a health limitation and an accelerated rate of acquiring it. We conclude that biosocial pathways link parenthood careers and the later-life health of both women and men, and that implications of closely spaced births for parents merit further attention.     

‘Maternity migration’ and the increased sex ratio at birth in Hong Kong SAR

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Hong Kong SAR (Special Administrative Region) has recently increased dramatically. Using a data set (N = 850,331) of all recorded births in Hong Kong between 1995 and 2009, we calculated SRBs by parity and immigrant status. The findings indicate a strong son preference among Mainland Chinese who have travelled to Hong Kong to give birth, especially at parity two or above. Logistic regression models show that this tendency is significantly greater among more affluent couples and remains strong even among Mainland Chinese women resident in Hong Kong for any length of time. The SRB of Hong Kong-born couples, though elevated at higher parities, is less skewed. Hong Kong has been serving as an outlet for ‘elite’ Mainland couples to circumvent family planning restrictions. The analysis also suggests the advantages of a wider set of immigrant variables over a binary construct.     

Unmarried Motherhood: Recent Trends,Composition, and Black-White Differences

The National Survey of Family Growth (1982) is used to examine the extent to which racial differences in premarital birth rates can be explained by differences in parents' socioeconomic status, family structure, and residential characteristics. The findings document a large diversity in premarital births within both populations. Black women from high-risk backgrounds are three times more likely to have a premarital birth than black women from low-risk backgrounds. Racial differences in premarital births arise because (1) black women are more likely to come from high-risk backgrounds and (2) black women from low-risk backgrounds are more likely to have a premarital birth than white women with similar characteristics. There are similar rates of premarital births by race among persons from high-risk backgrounds.     

Sex preference for children in German villages during the fertility transition

In the past, parents' sex preferences for their children have proved difficult to verify. This study used John Knodel's German village genealogies of couples married between 1815 and 1899 to investigate sex preferences for children during the fertility transition. Event history analyses of couples' propensity to progress to a fifth parity was used to test whether the probability of having additional children was influenced by the sex composition of surviving children. It appears that son preference influenced reproductive behaviour: couples having only girls experienced significantly higher transition rates than those having only boys or a mixed sibset. However, couples who married after about 1870 began to exhibit fertility behaviour consistent with the choice to have at least one surviving boy and girl. This result represents a surprisingly early move towards the symmetrical sex preference typical of modern European populations.     

生育水平、性别偏好和出生性别比——兼论出生性别比的监测方法

本研究以马-冯-陈模型为定性基础,认为一定人口的出生性别比并非固定不变,而是受到生育水平的影响。当无性别偏好时,生育水平主要通过改变不同孩次占出生人口比例的方式影响出生性别比;当有性别偏好时,生育水平既影响不同孩次占总出生人口的比例,又影响不同孩次的出生性别比,从而对总出生性别比产生影响。对于没有性别偏好和性别选择行为的人口,生育水平变化是引起出生性别比波动的主要原因。有性别选择行为时,生育水平变化对出生性别比的影响较小,性别选择行为是出生性别比异常的主要原因。监测以"曾生子女孩次和性别次序"为条件划分的人群,可以有效而便捷地判断出生性别比变化趋势。     

A cohort analysis of the timing of first birth and fertility in Ghana

This paper examines the nature of the inverse association between age at first birth and fertility across successive generations of Ghanaian women. Within the context of enhanced non-marital opportunities for contemporary women and declining fertility, we develop a rationale for and test the hypothesis that in a medium fertility environment as currently found in Ghana, the effect of age at first birth on fertility becomes more important than ever before. Five birth cohorts were identified (1938–1944; 1945–1949;1950–1954; 1955–1959; 1960–1964)from a merged file of the 1988, 1993 and 1998 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The analyses were restricted to women over 35 years old at the time of the surveys, which allowed us to use current parity as a reasonable proxy for completed fertility. Preliminary results suggest that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort. In multivariate analyses, the effect of age at first birth as a determinant of fertility was found to be more substantial among later cohorts. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi

We evaluate the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the reproductive behaviour for all women in Malawi, HIV-negative and HIV-positive alike, allowing for heterogeneous response depending on age and prior number of births. HIV/AIDS increases the probability that a young woman gives birth to her first child, while it decreases the probability to give birth of older women and of women who have already given birth. The resulting change in the distribution of fertility across age groups is likely to be more demographically and economically important than changes in the total number of children a woman gives birth to.     

Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States

We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are "catching up" on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.     

Reconstruction of Birth Histories from Census and Household Survey Data

In this paper a new procedure for reconstructing birth histories from census or household survey data is developed. Given the number of children ever born, the number of deceased children, and the ‘own children’ birth history of each woman, it is possible to ‘fill in’ probabilistically the missing births of her deceased children and of children not present in the household. Thus, the procedure generates complete birth histories from which such measures as age-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and birth interval measures may be estimated. For purposes of illustration and validation, the method is applied to the household survey data of the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey, both to the entire sample of households, and to households with women from whom individual birth histories were collected. Age-specific fertility rates and parity progression measures estimated from the reconstructed birth histories are compared with those estimated by applying the ‘own children’ method, for the period 1960–74.     

Paternity Establishment for Men’s Nonmarital Births

This paper uses the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth to examine paternity establishment among men’s nonmarital births. Using births as the unit of analysis, I find that paternity establishment for first births (n = 661) is linked to race/ethnicity and relationship status at birth, and these characteristics are associated differently with the timing and location of paternity establishment (in-hospital or at some later point). For higher-parity births (n = 429), paternity establishment for a particular birth is strongly related to prior paternity and fertility behaviors. Paternity is less likely to be established for a higher-parity birth if the father failed to establish paternity for at least one earlier birth, and third or higher-parity births are far more likely to have paternity established at a subsequent point than at the hospital.     

Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States

Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will also be associated with higher risks of a premarital first birth following onset. Our analyses confirm previous findings that women from disadvantaged backgrounds are younger at first intercourse and have higher premarital first-birth risks than women from more advantaged backgrounds. However, differences in onset timing have a strikingly smaller influence on premarital first-birth probabilities than do differences in post-onset risks. Our findings thus suggest that premarital first births result primarily from differences in post-onset risk behaviours as opposed to differences in onset timing.