A model of endogenous divorce and endogenous fertility

This paper examines the interaction between decisions on divorce and fertility. The analysis generates two major implications. Firstly, it complements the existing literature on endogenous fertility to explain why population growth and economic growth can be negatively correlated after an economy develops to a certain level. Secondly, it indicates that economic development leads to a simultaneous increase in divorce rates and decrease in fertility rates. Received: 05 February 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999     

The decisions of Spanish youth: A cross-section study

This paper presents a simultaneous model for the joint decisions of working, studying and leaving the parental household by young people in Spain. Using cross-section data from the 1990–1991 Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares, the model is estimated by a two stage estimation method. Endogeneity of the three decisions proves to be important in order to understand the dynamics of household formation. Our results also confirm a number of plausible intuitions about the effect of individual characteristics and economic variables on these decisions, and provide some new insights into the reasons for young people in Spain remaining in large numbers in the parental home. Most of the results are gender independent. Received: 18 September 1998/Accepted: 24 October 2000     

Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility

Employing an overlapping generations endogenous growth model in which parents derive utility from having children and, additionally, expect children to support them in old age, this paper explores the interrelation between growth, fertility, and the size of pay-as-you-go financed public pensions. It is shown that small sized public pensions stimulate per capita income growth, but further increases in public pensions eventually reduce it. Fertility, on the other hand, falls by an increase in public pensions if they are either small or large. Medium sized public pensions, however, may stimulate fertility. Received: 9 September 1997 / Accepted: 10 April 1998     

Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997     

Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process. Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000     

Children as insurance

This paper presents a dynamic model of fertility decisions in which children serve as an incomplete insurance good. The model incorporates uncertainty about future income and the survival of children as well as a discrete representation of the number of children. It contributes to the understanding of the negative relation between fertility and education, shows why parents may demand children even if the return is negative, and explains why fertility might rise with increasing income when income is low and decrease when income is high. Furthermore, the model can account for the decline in fertility when the risk of infant and child mortality decreases. Finally, the implications for empirical tests of the demand for children are also examined. Received: 8 September 1998/Accepted: 9 June 1999     

Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: an assessment of the literature

Focusing just on the fertility aspects of the Easterlin hypothesis, this paper offers a critical assessment – rather than just a selective citation – of the extensive fertility literature generated by Easterlin, and a complete inventory of data and methodologies in seventy-six published analyses. With an equal number of micro- and macro-level analyses using North American data (twenty-two), the „track record” of the hypothesis is the same in both venues, with fifteen providing significant support in each case. The literature suggests unequivocal support for the relativity of the income concept in fertility, but is less clear regarding the source(s) of differences in material aspirations, and suggests that the observed relationship between fertility and cohort size has varied across countries and time periods due to the effects of additional factors not included in most models. Received: 16 July 1996 / Accepted: 26 September 1997     

Fertility assimilation of immigrants: Evidence from count data models

This study applies count data estimation techniques to investigate the fertility adjustment of immigrants in the destination country. Data on completed fertility are taken from the 1996 wave of the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP). While the economic literature stresses the role of prices and incomes as determinants of fertility, the demographic literature discusses whether assimilation or disruption effects dominate immigrants' fertility after migration. We find evidence in favor of the assimilation model according to which immigrant fertility converges to native levels over time. In addition, we confirm the negative impact of female human capital on fertility outcomes. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 10 August 1999     

Welfare generosity, pregnancies and abortions among unmarried AFDC recipients

Even before the 1996 overhaul of the U.S. welfare system, a number of states had ended the practice of paying extra benefits to families who have additional children while receiving welfare. Proponents believe that this reform can reduce births to recipients, however many worry that it may encourage women to obtain abortions. Using a sample of unmarried AFDC recipients from the NLSY, we estimate a bivariate probit model of pregnancy and, conditional on becoming pregnant, the probability of abortion. Our results lend some support for the proposition that reducing incremental AFDC benefits will decrease pregnancies without increasing abortions. Received: 16 April 1998/Accepted: 11 March 1999     

Parental disruption and the labour market performance of children when they reach adulthood

This paper uses data from the age 33 wave of the British National Child Development Survey (NCDS) to analyze the effects of a parental disruption (divorce or death of a father) on the labour market performance of children when they reach adulthood. The NCDS is a longitudinal study of all children born during the first week of March 1958 in England, Scotland, and Wales. Controlling for a rich set of pre-disruption characteristics, the results indicate that a parental disruption leads to moderately less employment among males and considerably lower wage rates among females at age 33. If pre-disruption characteristics are not controlled for, larger effects are estimated for both males and females. Parental disruption also seems to cause substantial reductions in educational attainment for both males and females. Received: 22 May 1998/Accepted: 27 April 1999     

Childhood family structure and young adult behaviors

This paper examines a wide variety of forms, and full histories, of family structure to test existing theories of family influences and identify needs for new theories. The focus is on links between childhood family structure and both completed schooling and risk of a nonmarital birth. Using a 27-year span of panel (PSID) data for U.S. children, we find that: (a) change is stressful, (b) timing during childhood is relevant, (c) adults other than parents are important, and (d) two more recently studied family structures (mother-with-grandparent(s) and mother-with-stepfather) do not fit the molds of existing theories. The findings suggest that new theories should consider allocation of resources and reasons people group into family structures. Received: 11 September 1998/Accepted: 27 March 2000     

Group living decisions as youths transition to adulthood

This study follows teens through young adulthood as they transition to independent living. We focus on a little studied issue: why some youths live in groups rather than alone or with parents. This choice is important because the size of the group has a substantial impact on the demand for dwelling units; the more youths per dwelling the lower is aggregate demand and the greater is population density. Our study also adds to the knowledge of which factors influence youths' choice of destination as they leave the parental home. The empirical testing uses a discrete hazard model within a multinomial logit framework to allow for more than one possible state transition. We find that economic variables have little impact on the decision of whether to exit to a large versus a small group, while socio-demographic variables matter. We also test a new push-pull hypothesis and find that the pull of economic variables on the probability of exiting the parental home increases as youths reach their mid to late twenties. Received: 15 July 1999/Accepted: 15 May 2000     

Child development and family resources: Evidence from the second generation of the 1958 British birth cohort

Studies of American and recently British children suggest that there is a link between family income and child development, in particular that one consequence of child poverty is to hold back cognitive development. This paper investigates the impact of family income, material deprivation, maternal education and child-rearing behaviour on an indicator of cognitive functioning, using British data on children aged 6 to 17 whose mothers are members of the 1958 Birth Cohort Study. The poorer average cognitive functioning among children from the lowest income groups could largely be accounted for, statistically, by the greater material disadvantage of these groups. These analyses provide evidence to suggest that low income has detrimental effects on children's cognitive functioning through the operation of longer-term material disadvantage, and that these effects may be mitigated by positive parental behaviours. Received: 31 July 1999/Accepted: 26 September 2000     

Joint decisions on household membership and human capital accumulation of youths. The role of expected earnings and local markets

This paper analyses the effects of expected earnings and local markets conditions on the behaviour of young adults with high school diplomas. Decisions to either remain in the parental home or form a new household are modelled jointly with those of either gaining work experience or investing in a university education. Expected lifetime earnings are found to play a crucial role in determining the choice of studying and residing with parents. Poor labour market opportunities discourage young people from working and induce them to study. The cost of housing greatly influences the choice of working and leaving the parental home. Received: 23 March 2001/Accepted: 26 November 2001 All correspondence to Gianna Claudia Giannelli. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Family structure and children's achievements

In this paper we estimate the relationships between several outcomes in early adulthood (educational attainment, economic inactivity, early childbearing, distress and smoking) and experience of life in a single-parent family during childhood. The analysis is performed using a special sample of young adults, who are selected from the first five waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–95) and can be matched with at least one sibling over the same period. We also perform level (logit) estimation using another sample of young adults from the BHPS. We find that: (i) experience of life in a single-parent family is usually associated with disadvantageous outcomes for young adults; (ii) most of the unfavourable outcomes are linked to an early family disruption, when the child was aged 0–5; and (iii) level estimates, whose causal interpretation relies on stronger assumptions, confirm the previous results and show that, for most outcomes, the adverse family structure effect persists even after controlling for the economic conditions of the family of origin. Received: 24 August 1998/Accepted: 21 January 2000     

Family structure,economic status,and educational attainment

This study examines the effect of family structure on high school graduation by race and gender using data from the first twenty-one waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and recently available retrospective marital histories. The nature of the data allows for a more complete specification of family structure than has been heretofore possible. The analysis tests the hypothesis that the negative effect on educational attainment often associated with living in a mother-only or stepfather family stems primarily from the reduced level of economic resources available to these households. Empirical findings indicate that living with a widowed, divorced, or separated mother has little or no effect on educational attainment once we control for economic status. However, living in a stepfather family appears to have a persistent negative effect on high school graduation rates. Received: 24 July 1995 / Accepted: 9 September 1997     

A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: the case of Vietnam

This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility, perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect. Received April 22, 1996 / Accepted January 13, 1997     

Teenage childbearing and cognitive development

In this paper we examine how having a child as a teen affects the cognitive development of young women as measured on standardized tests. The research in this paper makes use of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, a biennial survey that contains information on a cohort of young women from the time they were in the 8th grade in 1988 until, the latest wave, 1994. By observing two test scores before a woman has a child and one test score after, we can control for both the level and growth in test scores experienced prior to childbirth. The results indicate that although teenage mothers have lower cognitive test scores than their counterparts without children, the effects of childbearing itself are negligible. Received: 23 August 2000/Accepted: 02 January 2001     

The socioeconomic consequences of young women's childbearing: Reconciling disparate evidence

Recent studies have begun to examine rigorously the links between early childbearing and subsequent socioeconomic status. Prominent in this literature has been a set of analyses that have used sibling fixed effects models to control for omitted variables bias. These studies report that the siblings difference procedure leads to smaller estimates of the effects of teen fertility than does standard regression analysis. While it is well known that the siblings fixed effects procedure makes strong assumptions regarding the type of omitted variables and is not necessarily robust to alternative assumptions, the assumptions of the procedure have not been explicitly examined. This paper uses 1979–1992 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to compare estimates of the income and education consequences of teenage and young adult fertility from standard regression and siblings fixed effects models with estimates from more general, alternative siblings models. Received: 19 January 1998/Accepted: 6 April 1999     

Intergenerational redistribution in a small open economy with endogenous fertility

For pay-as-you-go financed pension systems, claims may be calculated according to individual contributions (income) or the number of children of a family. We analyse the optimal structure of these parameters in a model with endogenous fertility. It is shown that for both structural determinants there exists no interior solution of the problem of intragenerational utility maximisation. Thus, pure systems are always welfare maximizing. Furthermore, children-related pension claims induce a fiscal externality that tends to be positive. The determination of the optimal contribution rate shows that the widely accepted Aaron-condition is in general a misleading indicator for the comparison of fully funded and pay-as-you-go financed pension systems. Received March 12, 1996 / Accepted January 27, 1997