开放式基金经理惯性投资行为研究

本文选取上海与深圳两个证券市场2004年1月至2007年3月共52只开放式基金及其重仓持有的126支股票为研究对象,考察中国开放式基金经理惯性投资行为的特征及获利成因。研究表明,中国开放式基金经理大多倾向于采取惯性投资策略。并且通过比较分析发现,开放式基金经理对个股特征的信息反应不足,对相对惯性反应过度。本文从开放式基金的委托代理关系出发,基于经济学理性人的假设,为基金经理采取惯性投资行为及惯性策略的获利成因提供了理论解释。     

基于TGARCH模型的证券投资惯性反向交易策略实证研究

惯性反向交易策略是比较成熟的行为金融投资策略.选取2000年1月～2006年10月投资组合公告发布在7年以上的10只偏股型封闭式基金,将TGARCH模型结合Shiller等提出的模型测度中国证券投资基金的惯性反向交易策略,探讨证券收益的波动性与惯性反向交易之间的关系.实证分析结果表明,惯性反向交易行为使基金收益具有负自相关性,同时惯性反向交易行为在市场上升和下降时是不对称的,市场下降时的惯性交易行为远比市场上升时剧烈,存在明显的杠杆效应,并且利空消息比同样大小的利好消息对收益波动性的影响更大.     

经济金融化与资本结构动态调整

通过构建包含厂商、家庭和银行的AD-AS产品市场均衡模型, 本文推导得到企业目标资本结构的测算方程.在此基础上, 以金融渠道获利作为经济金融化的度量指标, 基于2007年～2015年中国非金融类上市公司半年期数据, 系统考察了经济金融化对资本结构调整速度及其偏离度的影响.实证结果显示, 经济金融化程度越高, 企业资本结构偏离度越大且调整速度越慢, 尤其在非国有企业、过度负债企业和小规模企业更为凸显, 即存在非对称效应.此外, 本文还发现经济金融化显著抑制固定资产投资, 投资偏好改变及抵押担保能力下降有助于理解其对资本结构动态调整的负向作用.可见, 基于金融渠道的获利模式促使企业形成对高杠杆率的路径依赖, 加剧实际资本结构与目标值的偏离度, 从而不利于宏观去杠杆及供给侧结构性改革.     

个股情绪、定向增发与大股东利益输送——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据

识别市场情绪对企业融资行为的影响是公司金融领域的重要话题,但直接测度个股情绪,并分析其如何影响上市公司定向增发行为的实证研究较为匮乏。本文采用“隔夜收益法”度量我国上市公司的个股情绪,以股票日开盘价和收盘价的截面特征变化直接衡量单只股票的情绪值,并细致区分高涨与低迷情绪、强烈与缓和情绪,考察其对上市公司定向增发过程中的增发时机、增发规模和大股东利益输送行为产生的影响。结果发现：上市公司存在利用个股情绪选择增发时机和增发规模的行为,且个股情绪越强烈,上市公司越倾向于进行定向增发和提高增发规模;上市公司大股东存在利用个股情绪调整增发中认购比例的利益输送行为,且个股情绪乐观时大股东倾向于向外部投资者增发股票、悲观时则倾向于向内部投资者增发股票;高价股、小市值和非国有特征的上市公司利用个股情绪选择增发时机、增发规模的行为更为明显,高价股和非国有特征的上市公司利用个股情绪进行利益输送的行为更为明显。本研究对于识别个股情绪在上市公司定向增发过程中的独特作用,及规范企业融资行为和制定投资策略具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

新时期非处方药的营销策略研究

医疗保险制度改革的普及和处方药与非处方药分类管理制度的执行,促使非处方药品市场的发展必将更趋向规范化;非处方药品的种类和宣传方式也将日益丰富。本文首先分析现阶段非处方药品的推广模式及终端销售的困境;其次,说明了影响终端销售成功的因素;最后,重点分析了非处方药品的产品策略、渠道策略、广告策略和促销策略。     

股市波动的杠杆效应检验:一种新的方法

股市波动的非对称性特征一直是金融研究中关注的焦点问题。本文首次构建了一个非平衡似无关波动模型,从个股角度对波动的非对称性进行检验。通过与综合指数的对比研究,本文揭示了市场因素对波动非对称性的影响。实证结果表明,我国深证成份指数波动存在杠杆效应,而成份股波动却表现出反向杠杆效应。市场同时存在的共同因素和异质因素,是导致成份股波动和成份指数波动表现不一致的原因。进一步的研究结果表明,在消除共同因素影响后,成份股波动的反向杠杆效应会表现更明显。     

中国股市中信息反应模式的实证分析

本文在Hong和Stein(1999)信息扩散假说的基础上,集中研究中国股票市场中的短期反应不足和过度反应。实证结果表明中国股票市场对不同类型的信息有不同的反应方式。对于影响所有股票的收益率的宏观经济变化、行业相关政策变动等市场共同信息,股票的收益率存在过度反应现象;对于公司层面上的个股特定信息,股票的收益率存在明显反应不足。同时投资者对正面信息与负面信息的反应模式也有截然的区别,投资者对正面市场信息(利好)存在明显的过度反应,故在市场利好信息到达时,采用反向策略更为有利;由于投资者惜售的“处置效应”的影响,导致对市场利空信息的反应不足,在较短期内尤为明显。     

不完全市场中相关性风险的对冲策略研究

随着我国资本市场的进一步完善,以及市场波动的更加剧烈,投资者对于相关性风险的关注日益增强,如何对冲相关性风险是一个亟待解决的重要课题。本文在基于跳跃的不完全市场中,以带有跳跃的价格过程为基础,引入相关性随机过程,依据期权的希腊字母对冲原理,构建相关性风险的对冲策略——卖出一份股票指数看跌期权同时买入若干份对应个股的看跌期权和若干份标的股票,使投资组合保持资产波动率以及价格跳跃风险中性,进而通过卖出组合中指数期权的相关性风险溢价来对冲个股组合的相关性风险。本文选取2007年3月到2013年3月香港恒生指数及其成份股期权的日数据用以实证分析,结果表明:该策略能够对冲个股投资组合的相关性风险,且在大部分情况下获得显著为正的收益。本文对事前构建对冲策略以规避极端事件发生时的相关性风险具有重要的参考价值。     

中国股指期货市场期现套利及定价效率研究

分析 ETF 基金组合与沪深 300 指数期货合约的套利交易,研究中国股指期货市场定价效率及投资者行为对其的影响．根据资金来源不同,将套利分为自有资金套利与融资融券套利两类,据此计算两类套利的无套利区间．套利交易分析结果表明,部分合约反向套利机会远大于正向套利,套利机会呈单边趋势．虽然所有套利交易的平均利润大于零,但大部分合约正向套利平均利润大于反向套利平均利润,且在统计上更为显著． 正向套利利润随到期日的临近而衰减,显示出成熟市场的特征,而反向套利则相反,显示出套利的无效率．     

融资融券制度对尾部系统风险的非对称影响——基于A股市场极值相关性的研究

融资融券交易制度的推出能否有效降低个股随市场暴涨暴跌的概率是广泛关注的问题.文章利用Patton提出的SJC Copula函数, 估计了个股与大市尾部相关性, 并使用双重差分法分析了融资融券交易制度推出的政策处置效应, 发现融资融券制度降低了标的个股左尾 (下跌) 极值相关性, 但加剧了右尾 (上涨) 极值相关性.进一步分析表明, 上述结果来源于融资融券交易对极值相关性的非对称影响.具体而言, 融资交易对左尾极值相关性影响不显著, 但加剧了右尾极值相关性, 融券交易则同时显著降低了左尾和右尾极值相关性.由于融券交易规模远小于融资交易, 融资融券交易对左尾极值相关性的总体影响为负, 对右尾总体影响为正.研究结论认为, 融资交易追涨模式导致个股跟随大盘暴涨, 而融券交易将悲观交易者信息纳入股价, 有利于抑制股价过度上涨, 而逆向平仓也适当降低了个股暴跌概率.因此, 监管者应灵活控制融资交易杠杆, 完善融券交易机制以发挥其股价稳定器功能.     

Going global—Global strategies vs national strategies

An increasing number of managers see globalization as a major trend influencing their company's future. But what exactly does the term mean and what are its practical implications for those firms on the threshold of going global? The author tackles these questions and suggests that the main feature of globalization will be that companies will seek a combination of co-ordinating mechanisms that will achieve the object with a minimum of interference in the freedom of nationally based operating units.     

Implementing global strategies

Setting up a corporate global strategy is only half the story. Implementing it successfully involves much skill and is a very challenging task. Lawrence Hrebiniak reviews both the general issues and specific needs of global strategy. Next, he categorizes four stages that companies go through in pursuit of their global destiny. In the last, and most important of these — co-ordinated global strategy — there are routes to success, used separately or together. These are: creating a cadre of effective global managers, forming strategic alliances, and employing lateral or matrix type structures. A final check-list itemizes implementation requirements by stage of global strategy.     

Managing strategies incrementally

When sophisticated large organizations make significant changes in strategy, the approaches they use frequently bear little resemblance to the rational-analytical systems so often touted in the planning literature. Such systems are rarely the source of overall corporate strategies. Instead, the processes used to generate major strategies are typically fragmented and evolutionary with a high degree of intuitive content. Although one usually finds imbedded in these fragments some very refined pieces of formal analysis, overall strategies tend to emerge as a series of conscious internal decisions blend and interact with changing external events to slowly mutate key managers' broad consensus about what patterns of action make sense for the future. Based on a multi-year study of how large companies change their strategies, this article summarizes why strategic managers do proceed incrementally and how they manage the complex process of generating an overall strategy.     

Competitive strategies in retailing

A strategy formulation procedure for retailers is described. The changing retail environment has brought problems for some traditional forms of retailing, and indeed failure for some stores, but it has also brought opportunities, particularly for the store management that has been prepared to consider different ways of selling.     

Competitive industrial marketing strategies

This paper argues that for firms marketing industrial goods, the terms—system, product, service and commodity—are better employed to characterize the way the firm competes rather than any intrinsic attributes of what it markets. It is shown that the same hardware can be transacted as a system, service, product of commodity, and the nature of the most popular transaction changes over time. The nature of these shifts and how the firm needs to match its strategy to reflect them are discussed, and the special case of diversified firms in industries subject to rapid transaction shifts is taken up. It is suggested that for such firms a divisional structure based on the type of transaction—‘transaction divisions’—rather than the conventional Product Type divisions may make the firm better able not only to match its strategy to such shifts but also better able to anticipate them.     

Evaluating basic research strategies

A model has been developed to describe the pharmaceutical research and drug innovation process. The model originally served to show the range of results that could arise from research in the field of infectious disease chemotherapy over a sustained period of time. The main goal of the model was to illuminate the risk/reward/time tradeoff faced by management in selecting a particular research strategy. The results obtained with this model were one of several considerations influencing the research strategy decision of CIBA-GEIGY in 1976 to adapt and strengthen its research effort in infectious disease chemotherapy.This model has so far been applied only for the comparative evaluation of infectious disease chemotherapy research strategies. However, there is no conceptual reason why it should be limited to this field of drug research or indeed to pharmaceutical research at all. This type of analysis should be applicable wherever clear, product-oriented research goals can be identified and defined, where some reasonable financial reward can be attached to achieving these goals, and where an assessment—albeit subjective—can be made of the likelihood of achieving these goals.     

Optimal bid-ask price strategies

Economic analysis has begun to focus on the implications of transaction costs to trading in capital assets. Specifically, the economics of market making and the price of liquidity has received considerable attention. This paper formulates the market maker's bid-ask price decision as a semi-Markov decision process with the reward being a function of expected return and risk. Risk is intimately related to dealer inventory and hence the solution of the analysis specifies bid-ask price strategies which are inventory dependent. Numerical examples indicate the market maker's optimal bid-ask prices will tilt around the ‘assets’ equilibrium price to control inventory as well as influence expected profit.     

Information strategies for agricultural exporters

This study revealed some important divergences between new entrants and those more experienced at selling overseas. While experienced exporters have well-developed informal networks of information and focus their search strategies on better long term and short term supply/demand information, “would-be” exporters tend to be more concerned with locating a “qualified” buyers list, and getting information on export procedures, and trade logistics. In addition, would-be exporters expressed frustration with two types of obstacles where information is least likely to solve the problem: Time lags when shipping perishable goods and exogenous factors (such as precipitous changes in a foreign government).     

Formulating corporate objectives and strategies

In this article Hans G. Krijnen sets out to illustrate part of the strategic policy-making of a firm. he uses three economic basic-aims and three groups of strategies. The basic-aims have been linked with the strategies which, in the author's opinion, contribute most towards the realisation of meaningful goals. He believes it should be possible to deduce some broad guidelines from the relationships mentioned, to be able to make a choice among a number of new product–market combinations.     

Korean strategies for export markets

Facing the rapid loss of cheap labour advantage, Korean firms are confronted with a new challenge of transition from Original Equipment Manufacturer to own brand exporter. What kinds of new strategies are required for an OEM exporting company to become an own brand exporter? To answer this question, four Korean companies—of whom two made the transition successfully and two did not—were investigated. A few key success factors were identified, and this article suggests some strategy changes regarding R & D, production and marketing. These strategy changes will only be validated in the long term. Related previous studies are discussed and linked to the suggestions.