Quantifying the Dynamics of Chinese Labor Force: A Life Table Approach

Based on the recent three population censuses of China, in this article, we used life table technique to compute the expected years of working life for the Chinese labor force in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in 1982, 1990 and 2000. We found, after two decades of economic reform, the expected years of working life in the primary industry decreased from 32.04 and 26.74 years for males and females in 1982 to 27.07 and 26.12 years, respectively, in 2000. For the tertiary industry, the expected years of working life increased from 5.70 and 2.94 years for males and females in 1982 to 8.05 and 5.66 years in 2000, respectively. For the secondary industry, there was virtually no change in terms of the expected years of working life.     

中国高龄老人健康预期寿命研究

用隶属等级 (GradeofMembership ,GOM)模型将反映 1998年被访高龄老人不同健康维度的 5 0个变量进行综合得到健康、比较健康、功能受限、体弱多病、极度虚弱五个纯类。用这五个纯类将高龄老人预期寿命进行了分析     

我国人口预期寿命分析与预测

本文通过对我国人口年龄和性别构成现状的分析,运用蒋庆琅法利用2003年我国人口抽样和死亡率资料编制当年的简略寿命表,估算我国现阶段人口的预期寿命。接着,对我国自解放至今人口预期寿命的变化及其原因进行分析,并最终利用我国自第四次人口普查至第五次人口普查阶段人口预期寿命增长率等相关资料,对我国人口2001-2020年的预期寿命作出预测,得出今后我国人口预期寿命将继续增长,但增长率依年度的推移而递减。     

Global Patterns of Healthy Life Expectancy for Older Women

SUMMARY

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.     

“人均预期寿命提高1岁”的实证研究

温家宝总理在政府工作报告中首次提出十二五时期人均预期寿命提高1岁的目标。本文在生命表数据基础上,通过计算平均预期寿命贡献率并进行相关分析与回归分析后得出:我国目前平均预期寿命虽然已高于绝大多数发展中国家,但其绝对增速正逐渐放慢。而降低60～90岁年龄段老年人口死亡率、提高居民消费水平、缩小家庭规模、迁移有条件的离退休老人到低海拔地区养老是实现人均预期寿命提高1岁目标的有效路径。     

中国老年人口的自理预期寿命变动——社会性别视角下的差异分析

基于2005年"小普查"及2010年"六普"汇总数据,本文利用生命表技术及Sullivan法,分析了男性与女性老年人口预期寿命、自理预期寿命及其差异的变化。研究发现,随着年龄的提高,预期寿命与自理预期寿命的性别差异均呈缩减趋势;5年间,老年人口预期寿命的性别差异在低龄阶段有略微的扩张趋势,而自理预期寿命的性别差异则在各年龄均呈扩张趋势;男性老年人口自理预期寿命占余寿的比重始终高于女性,而且与以往研究结论不同的是,5年间老年人口自理预期寿命占余寿的比重呈上升趋势,且女性该比重的上升幅度高于男性。     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的分解研究

健康预期寿命是反映人群健康长寿的重要指标,健康预期寿命差异反映了一个国家或地区的健康不平等状况。利用多状态生命表分析了中国老年人口健康预期寿命在过去十余年间的趋势与变动,并通过夏普利值分解法测算了人口社会学等11类因素对老年人口健康预期寿命差异的具体贡献值。得到以下四项重要研究结论:第一,从2005年到2018年,中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的程度略有增加,女性、农村群体相比对应群体差距始终较高;泰尔指数分解发现,组内不平等(而非组间不平等)是造成上述差异的主要原因;老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异呈现出高龄老人缩小而低龄老人扩大的趋势。第二,婚姻状况是健康预期寿命变动最重要的影响因素,但影响程度呈现逐年下降趋势,反之,受教育程度的影响在逐年上升;进一步将11类影响因素归类后发现:"个体特征"是最重要的影响因素,"经济因素"和"行为因素"的重要性次之,"环境因素"的影响最小。第三,上述影响因素对中国老年人口健康预期寿命的影响总体呈上升趋势,分城乡、分性别后依然呈现出相同的特征。最后,各因素在不同城乡、性别、婚姻状态的群体中的影响存在异质性。     

Differences in Life Expectancy and Disability Free Life Expectancy in Italy. A Challenge to Health Systems

Background Measures of health expectancy such as Disability Free Life Expectancy are used to evaluate and compare regional/national health statuses. These indicators are useful for understanding changes in the health status and defining health policies and decisions on the provision of services because provide useful information on possible areas needing interventions and burden of care to health systems. Methods Two databases have been used for the analysis: the Italian Health Interview Survey and the European Community Household Panel. The data were analyzed by gender and geographic area. DFLE was calculated by the Sullivan method. Results In 2005 in Italy women have a longer life expectancy than men: 84 and 78 years, respectively. But if we consider life without disability in Italy the male disadvantage reduces: men live 85% of their years without disability, women only 75%. Geographic differences do exist because Disability Free Life Expectancy is longer in Northern and in Central regions; shorter in the South. At a European level similar data can be found: on average women live longer but they have a longer time of life with disability. Conclusion In Italy women live longer but have a worse quality of health than men; in the South there is a worse quality of health. Similar findings can be identified at a European level. The Italian situation with the highest percentage of DFLE at 65 out of the total LE at 65 and one of the longest LE witnesses ageing is not necessarily associated to a worsening of health.     

1994～2004年中国老年人的生活自理预期寿命及其变化

本文应用2004年和1994年国家统计局全国人口变动抽样调查中有关老年人生活自理能力的数据,采用Sullivan法对老年人的生活自理预期寿命进行了分析,并且比较了1994年到2004年生活自理预期寿命的变化。研究发现,2004年中国男性老年人平均有1.5年生活不能自理,女性老年人平均为2.5年。随着年龄的增长,中国老年人的生活自理预期寿命占余寿的比重也在逐渐下降。女性老年人的预期寿命比男性高,生活自理预期寿命在60~80岁也高于男性,但是85岁及以上女性的生活自理预期寿命低于男性,而且女性老年人生活自理预期寿命占余寿的比重在整个老年阶段均低于男性老年人。从10年间的变化看,中国老年人的预期寿命和生活自理预期寿命都有所增长,但是生活自理预期寿命在余寿中的比重反而下降了,而且随年龄的增长,下降得也越来越快,男性和女性均呈现同样的态势。就平均水平而言,健康状况改善的程度低于寿命的延长,高龄女性老年人在这个方面尤其处于劣势。     

Modeling Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Loss Resulting from Tobacco use in the United States

Purpose  To describe the development of a model for estimating the effects of tobacco use upon Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and to estimate the impact of tobacco use on health outcomes for the United States (US) population using the model. Method  We obtained estimates of tobacco consumption from 6 years of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). In addition, NHIS data were used to impute the Quality of Well-Being (QWB) Scale using a new methodology known as QWBX1. The QWB places health status on a continuum ranging from death (0.0) to full functioning without symptoms (1.0). The method allows the adjustment of life expectancy for reduced quality of life associated with health conditions. NHIS data were matched to the National Death Index for 14,464 deaths occurring by December 31, 1997. The analysis is limited to adults between the ages of 18 and 70 years. Results  Quality of Well-Being scores were broken down by age and for six smoking categories: (1) non-smokers, (2) those who smoke 1–10 cigarettes per day, (3) 11–20 cigarettes per day, (4) 21–30 cigarettes per day, and (5) 31–40 cigarettes per day, and (6) 40 or greater cigarettes per day. There was a systematic relationship between current tobacco use and health-related quality of life at each point along the age spectrum and there was a clear and systematic separation of quality-adjusted life expectancy by number of cigarettes smoked per day. Teenagers who continue to smoke loose 3.5 QALYs between ages 18 and 70 in comparison to non-smokers. A greater portion in the loss in QALE is attributable to quality of life than to shorten life expectancy. Conclusions  The overall goal of Healthy People 2010 is to increase Years of Healthy Life (or QALE) in the United States. Each year, tobacco use results in hundreds of thousands of quality-adjusted life years lost. Combined models of morbidity and mortality incorporating a range of tobacco consumption levels are required to best represent the impact of tobacco use. Supported by a Grant 11RT-0243 from the Californian Tobacco Related Disease Research Program (TRDRP)     

Recent Perspectives on Active Life Expectancy for Older Women

SUMMARY

This article provides a critical review of recent active life expectancy literature, describing trends of special interest to women. We review findings from leading perspectives used to study life expectancy and active life expectancy, including gender, racial and socioeconomic differences, disease-specific effects, and biodemography. We examine three competing theories of population health that frame active life expectancy research—compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium—concluding there is support for both the compression of morbidity and dynamic equilibrium theories. Policy implications for women include a greater understanding of the role of education and racial and ethnic diversity in active life trends, and an increased public policy emphasis on prevention and treatment of chronic disease, together with adoption of more healthy lifestyles.     

中国老年人带残预期寿命及疾病影响的城乡差异分析

为了明确各种疾病对我国城乡老年人残疾以及带残预期寿命的影响,本文基于第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据,首先对残疾现患率进行归因分析,得到分疾病的残疾现患率,然后结合死亡率数据,利用苏利文方法计算分疾病的带残预期寿命。结果显示,在60岁时,城市男性预期将有4.08年(城市女性:4.95年)生活在残疾状态中,低于农村男性的4.72年(农村女性:5.46年)。老年性耳聋、白内障、脑血管疾病、骨关节炎和未分类的伤害是老年人的最重要的5种致残疾病。而且,各种疾病对老年人的残疾现患率和带残预期寿命的影响存在明显的城乡差异。本研究为政府在城乡老年人中提出具有针对性的残疾预防战略提供了实证支持。     

我国年龄组平均预期寿命变动的实证研究

平均预期寿命是国内外评价一个国家或地区人口健康状况的重要指标。国家统计局只公布0岁组平均预期寿命,而要进一步研究,则需要分年龄组资料。利用1995年、2005年全国1%人口抽样数据编制分性别、分城乡的完全生命表,在此基础上定量分析得出:我国各年龄组平均预期寿命,女性>男性,城镇>乡村;暂时平均预期寿命的相对增长速度,1995~2005年快于1981~1995年,女性快于男性;老年组死亡率的降低对0岁组平均预期寿命的贡献率最大。     

Adjusting Life Expectancy to Account for Disability in a Population: A Comparison of Three Techniques

Sullivan (1971) first suggested weighting life expectancy (LE) to account for the health of a population using a single indicator. Known as disability free life expectancy (DFLEs), this measure was somewhat limited due to a overly simplistic weighting scheme. Its introduction, however, spurred the development of a whole new class of measures known as health expectancy indicators. One of the first, disability-adjusted life expectancy (DALEs) (Wilkins and Adams, 1983), identified the period of time in a particular level of disability and weighted each level accordingly. While the weighting allowed for a health related quality-of-life distinction to be introduced into the DALE measure, the weights, by level of disability, were arbitrarily chosen and fixed for all ages and gender. To overcome this limitation, a health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) was developed based in large part on the DALE methodology but utilizes more refined weights. The McMaster Health Utility Index Mark III (HUI3)) scores health on a continuum from 0 to 1 and when included on a national health survey, provides estimates that reflect important age, gender, and socio-economic factors. All three measures were calculated for the years 1986, 1991, and 1994 (household and institutional populations). Analysis revealed that HALEs were more appropriate for policy purposes due to their ability to account for indirect morbidity in both a disabled and non-disabled population.     

基于平均余命的中国养老金个人账户缴费率研究

平均余命是影响个人账户缴费率的重要因素之一。在退休人口平均余命逐步延长的趋势下,现行缴费率下的个人账户养老金积累额不能满足退休人口平均余命期间的支付需求,不能保障基本生活需要。如果不能及时依据平均余命适当调整个人账户缴费率,退休人口将面临因长寿风险而陷入生活贫困的境遇。本文测算了平均余命提高条件下中国2000~2050年个人账户缴费率的上限值与下限值范围,分析了职工个人缴纳养老保险费的经济承受能力,并提出了若干建议。     

A Comparative Study of Handicap-free Life Expectancy of China in 1987 and 2006

After the first large scale national sampling survey on handicapped persons in 1987, China conducted its second national sampling survey in 2006. Using the data from these two surveys and the national life tables, we computed and compared the expected years of life free of handicapped condition by the Sullivan method. The expected years of life lived with handicap for the Chinese population increased from 4.87 years for males and 5.81 years for females in 1987 to 5.55 years and 6.32 years in 2006, respectively. The same trend was observed for people in working ages (15–64) and old ages (65+). However, the expected years of life lived with handicap decreased for children (0–14). Our results also showed that the effect of skeletal handicap increased notably for both sexes. Healthy life expectancy is an important indicator in measuring quality of life of a population. Our study utilized this measurement to quantify one aspect of quality of life of the Chinese population.     

中国与俄罗斯职业结构变迁研究

从资源继替关联和生活面向的角度分析职业结构变迁具有一定的学理意义。中国与俄罗斯的社会转型都起始于20世纪80年代前后,在转型之初政治与经济集中管理的权力格局从结构上说具有内在的同一性或相似性,这就赋予了职业结构变迁比较研究的前提。资源继替关联在两国表现出了一定的相似性,而生活面向对于中国的正面促进作用明显大于俄罗斯。俄罗斯的内向型生活面向决定了其职业结构变迁的突变性与不确定性,而中国人的外向型生活面向决定了其职业结构变迁的渐进性、自主性与可预测性。     

Gender Differences in Disability-Free Life Expectancy for Selected Risk Factors and Chronic Conditions in Canada

SUMMARY

This article shows how mortality and morbidity patterns differ for women and men 45 years of age and older. The impact on disability-free life expectancy was calculated for selected risk factors and chronic conditions: low income, low education, abnormal body mass index, lack of physical activity, smoking, cancer, diabetes, and arthritis. For each factor, the expected number of years free of disability was calculated for men and women using multi-state life tables. In terms of disability-free life expectancy, the greatest impacts on affected women were for diabetes (14.1 years), arthritis (8.8 years), and physical inactivity (6.0 years), while for affected men, the greatest impacts were for diabetes (10.5 years), smoking (6.9 years), arthritis (6.5 years), and cancer (6.4 years). The implications of these results are discussed from the perspective of developing programs designed to improve population health status.     

近50年来世界人口期望寿命的演变轨迹

进入21世纪以来,全球人口已经突破60亿,但是人口增长速度明显减慢。许多国家已经完成了人口转变,其总和生育率在更替水平以下。与此同时,人口健康状况得到明显改善,死亡水平显著降低,期望寿命在不断提高。本文利用联合国人口司发布的192个国家人口死亡信息,系统分析了世界人口平均期望寿命在过去50年里的演变态势、区域差异以及演变模式。结果显示世界人口期望寿命经历了半个多世纪的持续增长,有50%以上的人口或国家平均期望寿命达到了70岁。演变轨迹呈多样化的发展模式,区域发展不平衡。欠发达地区总体上较发达地区增幅大,人口比重上升幅度也很显著。人均期望寿命增幅最大的是亚洲国家,非洲国家与世界不同步,而且区域内差异较大。     

Structural Pluralism and Life Expectancy in Less-Developed Countries: The Role of Women's Status

This study replicates a previous finding forthe U.S. counties that showed a strongassociation, net of controls between``structural pluralism' and lower mortality. ``Structural pluralism' refers to a community'scapacity for political competition, and is acore element of ``democracy.' Pluralism hasthis effect because it facilitates theacquisition of appropriate medical facilitiesand because it tends to optimize the biologicalfunctioning of the residents. Working from amajor component of pluralism, minorityparticipation, this hypothesis is tested byshowing that women's status in less developedcountries improves life expectancy net ofcontrols. A path analysis demonstrates thatthe structural dimensions work through healthorganization as an intervening variable, andthe future testing of biological optimizationis outlined. Location in Africa south of theSahara is a partially unexplained controlvariable that has a powerful negative impact. Interpreting women's status as a component ofpluralism explains why it predicts increasedlife expectancy for all citizens, not justwomen. It is a global dimension that affectsall the members of a community.