Metropolitan migration efficiency

The migration efficiency ratio of an area is defined as the net migration of the area (in-migrants minus out-migrants) divided by the total number of moves whose origin or destination is that area (in-migrants plus out-migrants) multiplied by 100. This paper investigates variations in migration efficiency from 1955 to 1960 among Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas with populations of 250,000 or more. Regional variation in migration efficiency was evident, ranging from an average of ?9.7 in the Northeast to 19.6 for SMSA’s in the Western region. Nonwhites tended to have higher migration efficiency than whites. Rapidly growing metropolitan areas had higher migration efficiency ratios than areas growing at a lower rate or losing population. The educational level of a metropolitan area, as measured by the percent of the population 25 years old or over with at least a high school education, was positively related to migration efficiency. The composition of the migrant population, both in- and outmigrants for a given area, was related to the value of the migration efficiency ratio. If the migrant population contained a large proportion of persons aged 20–34, migration efficiency was low, regardless of the direction of the major migration stream. Region was found to have a major effect. Variables that had a strong and positive relationship with migration efficiency in one region were usually found to have no relation, or a negative relation, with it in other areas. Obviously, further research is needed for the identification of factors producing these strong regional effects.     

Moving Across Boundaries: Migration in South Africa, 1950–2000

Existing knowledge about historical patterns of black internal migration in South Africa is incomplete, primarily because of the lack of good life course studies as well as the apartheid government’s suppression and censoring of data. This article provides a comprehensive picture of historical internal migration patterns with an analysis of a unique individual retrospective life history data set. This sample of the black population, collected in 2000, is the only known nationally representative life history data for South Africa; it includes all residential moves for each individual during his/her lifetime. Various mobility outcomes are analyzed: moves within/across provinces, moves within/across rural and urban areas, forced moves, moves with a nuclear family, and individual moves. The results indicate that migration significantly increased among black South Africans during the last half of the twentieth century, and that this increase began before the Pass Laws were repealed in 1986 and well before the official end of apartheid in 1991 or the first free election in 1994. The timing of this increase in migration rates suggests that migration in defiance of the Pass Laws (albeit a dangerous and desperate proposition) was a way of life for many black South Africans.     

Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks

US census data from 1940 to 2000 are used in this paper to illustrate the importance of origin dependence on migration streams and to examine the effects of such dependence on patterns of interregional migration. These findings are then used to make possible the indirect estimation of migration flows. A method is introduced that uses historical regularities found in the ratios of secondary to primary migration and two consecutive birthplace-specific counts of multiregional population stocks. The results demonstrate how patterns of primary and secondary migration act to shape population redistribution processes.     

International migration in Asia and the Pacific: trends,problems, and recommendations

Like other parts of the world, the Asia and Pacific region has experienced mass movements of the population within and across countries. This report presents the issues and problems discussed, and the recommendations given at the Expert Group Meeting on International Migration in Asia and the Pacific, held in 1984 in Manila. The 9 issues discussed include: 1) available data on international migration are often inconsistent, incomplete, and inadequate for a thorough analysis of the migration situation; 2) the conventional economic theory of migration, and the modern view are different, but related; 3) are internal and international migration 2 distinct phenomena, or are they simply opposite ends of a continuum ranging from short-distance moves within a country to long-distance moves across national boundaries?; 4) permanent migration from Asia and the Pacific to the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand has risen sharply over the the past few years; 5) international migration could have considerable effects on the size, composition, growth, and structure of the populations of both sending and receiving countries; 6) temporary labor migration to the Middle East increased rapidly in the recent past; 7) temporary labor migration has benefits and costs to the home country and to the returning workers and their families; 8) refugee movements within and from Asia have had significant repercussions, not only in the lives of the migrants themselves, but also in the national policies and social structures of the asylum countries; and 9) international migration, if properly controlled and organized, could work for the benefit of every country involved.     

Temporary migration: a case study of Florida

Most migration statistics in the United States focus on changes in permanent residence, thereby missing temporary moves such as the daily commute to work, business trips, vacations, and seasonal migration. In this paper, we analyze temporary migration streams in Florida, focusing on moves that include an extended stay. Using several types of survey data, we examine the characteristics of non-Floridians who spend part of the year in Florida and Floridians who spend part of the year elsewhere. We develop estimates of the number, timing, and duration of temporary moves and the origins, destinations, characteristics, and motivations of temporary migrants. This study presents the most comprehensive analysis yet of temporary migration in Florida and provides a model that can be used in other places. It also points to a serious shortcoming in the US statistical system, namely, the lack of information on temporary migration streams. We believe the American Community Survey provides an opportunity to remedy this problem.     

Climate,migration, and the local food security context: introducing Terra Populus

Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population–environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate–migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments.     

Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations

Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging. In this article, I introduce a stable, open-population model in which cohort net migration is proportional to births. In this case, the migration-fertility trade-off can be studied with particular ease. I show that although migration can increase the growth rate, which tends to make the age distribution younger, it also has an opposite effect because of its typical age pattern. I capture the effect of the age pattern of net migration in a migration-survivor function. The effect of net migration on growth is quantified with data from 17 European countries. I show that some countries already have a level of migration that will lead to stationarity. For other countries with asymptotically declining population, migration still provides opportunities for slowing down aging of the population as a whole.     

Swedish-finnish return migration,extent, timing,and information flows

This paper performs two tasks. It first describes the return migration behavior of Finnish immigrants to Sweden over the period 1968–1976 as revealed by the Swedish population register. The volume of return migration is considerable but varies by age and sex. Second, we examine the sensitivity of return migration to economic conditions at both destination and origin. The model proposed allows the relative weights attached to information on the two locations to vary as the interval of absence lengthens. Econometric evidence indicates that conditions at the original location appear to exert increasing influence on the decision to return the longer the interval of absence.     

Internal Migration of the Foreign-Born: Population Concentration or Dispersion?

Recent analyses of the 1990 census migration data have pointed to the different demographic effects of internal migration and immigration. States and metropolitan areas either have large population gains through immigration or internal migration, but rarely both, leading to what has been labeled as an increasing demographic balkanization of the U.S. population. This paper explores the proposition that the internal migration of the foreign-born (pre-1985 arrivals) is likely to reinforce the demographic effects of immigration. Analysis is based on the five-percent Public Use Microdata file of the U.S. Census, with the demographic effects evaluated at both the state and metropolitan area levels. Distinctions were also made between nineteen separate national origin groups, increasing the detail of the analysis. Despite high internal migration rates and large net migration, there was little change in the overall distribution and concentration of the foreign-born population between 1985 and 1990. More important, however, distinctions were found across the national origin groups. While secondary migration leads to dispersion among some groups, other groups were becoming increasingly concentrated, suggesting that demographic balkanization of the American population is more variable than the literature would suggest.     

On the auspices of female migration from Mexico to the United States

In this paper we examine the circumstances and determinants of female migration between Mexico and the United States. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we considered the relative timing of males' and females' moves northward. We then estimated logit and probit models to study the determinants of male and female out-migration; among women we also estimated a multinomial logit model to uncover differences in the process of migration for work versus not for work. We found that women almost always followed other family members, either the husband or a parent; only a tiny minority initiated migration independently. Although males also are quite likely to be introduced to migration by a parent, nearly half of all male migrants left for the United States before or without a wife or a parent. Estimates of the determinants of migration suggested that males move for employment, whereas wives generally are motivated by family reasons. Daughters, however, display a greater propensity to move for work, and the determinants of their work-related moves closely resemble those of sons and fathers.     

Migration policy for whom? A case study of the political context of migration in Sweden

The current debate on Swedish policy for rural-urban migration involves disagreements concerning its economic and social impact on the migrant. From one point of view, rural-urban movement is seen as "economically rational": a natural, efficient adaptation of the population to a centralized economy. Migrant economic and social betterment is seen to follow from such a population movement. Another point of view questions the assumed economic and social benefits of a city movement. Instead, the policy is accused of not taking human social and economic needs into account. It argues that migration policy needs to be decentralized, allowing migrants to preserve social ties to home areas.Both viewpoints are examined from the subjective perspective of the migrant. A pattern of intensive interviews were conducted with people who have moved to Stockholm from a village north of the city as well as with others who had returned to their village after a stay in Stockholm.The case study revealed that moves were not made for economic reasons alone, but the the motivation for the structure of opportunity surrounding the move was complex. Migrants were seeking to attain differing interests, many of which were associated with life-cycle situations such as leaving school and marrying. Migration instead becomes one of several means by which individuals search for well-being and a desirable "quality of life." There is no necessary correspondence between the set of moves which will maximize labor-market efficiency and set of moves which will maximize individual satisfactions.Sharlene J. Hesse is affiliated with the Department of Sociology, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167. Requests for reprints should be directed to her.     

Immigration and native migration in New York City, 1985–1990

The 1990 Public Use Micro Sample is used to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City. The study population is limited to native born males who lived in the five boroughs in 1985. The relationship between immigration and the probability of various kinds of moves is assessed using logistic regression. Results suggest that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration. Unlike prior work, this study examines a single metro area, and does not limit itself to inter-state migration. These results are consistent with more recent work (Card 2001; Kritz et al. 2001), which has failed to find a positive labor market level effect of immigration on native migratory behavior. The inter-borough finding is consistent with the occurrence of voluntary residential segregation within the city, in which the native born move away from areas of immigrant concentration but do not leave the labor market, yet there is no direct evidence that this process occurred.     

Migration stock and the issue of competing and complementary flows in United States interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of interstate migration in the United States from 1965–1970 when a new change in direction of migration has started, and to examine the flow creation or flow diversion that results from migration to some appealing regions. Several related variables have been selected and tested for gross interstate migration flows. The results show that overall both push and pull factors have not been important. People from higher income regions migrate more, and migrants tend to move to states with higher incomes and larger population. Distance was not found to act as a significant deterrence to migration, whereas population density of origin and destination was significant. Previous migration was found to have a very strong effect on migration. The results of the study also suggested that there has been a major change in the location of growth areas in the United States during 1955–1970.The study of concurrent flow showed that the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida combined have positively influenced migratory flow between origin and destination states. Empirical results, however, also showed that California did not have flow creation or flow diversion effects on interstate migration.This research was supported partly through Organized Research Funds of The University of Texas at Arlington.     

Migration and retirement in the life course: an event history approach

Migration at older ages is commonly explained by reference to the search for greater amenity, and subsequently by the onset of greater dependency, but the links between mobility and specific life course transitions have rarely been articulated. We aim to establish the timing of migration in relation to retirement from the labour force, and to determine how its intensity varies around the retirement event. We also seek to identify how household and individual characteristics shape the propensity and timing of migration, differentiating moves according to distance and with particular attention to the characteristics of the spouse. Data are drawn from the first six waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, a nationally representative panel study covering the period 2001–2006. Migration events are identified relative to retirement and event history methods are employed to establish the characteristics predisposing households to relocate around retirement. Results demonstrate that retirement acts as a trigger to migration but the propensity to move falls as retirement age rises and the hazard is increasingly concentrated in the year retirement occurs. Within this framework the presence, health, education and retirement status of a spouse exert a significant influence on the likelihood of migration, though with different effects for long and short distance moves. Results highlight the importance of variations in underlying life-course trajectories in shaping retirement migration and demonstrate that only a minority of moves at ages 55–69 are directly associated with retirement, underlining the need for caution when identifying retirement migration using age as a proxy measure.     

Population statistics] as of January 1, 1994

This one-page sheet, dated January 1, 1994, provides statistical information on population by sex, residence, region, age, and other measures of growth and health in Thailand. Total population is listed as 58,482,000 (29,223,000 males and 29,259,000 females). The population size projected for the year 2012 is 71,414,000. Urban population numbers 17,966,000, while rural population is 40,516,000. The most populous regions are the Northeastern Region with 19,715,000 inhabitants and the Central Region (excluding Bangkok Metro area) with 14,609 inhabitants. The Northern Region has 9,503,000 inhabitants, Bangkok Metropolis has 7,503,000, and the Southern Region has 7,152,000. 15,098,000 are women in the childbearing ages. 16,843,000 are aged under 15 years, and 4,269,000 are aged 60 years and older. The crude birth rate is 18.5/1000 population. The crude death rate is 6.4/1000 population. The natural growth rate is 1.2%. Infant mortality is 34.5/1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth is 67.7 years for males and 72.4 years for females. Total fertility is 1.95 children/woman. Contraceptive prevalence is 75.0%. The graph of two-year migrants shows the peak ages for single moves to be 20-24 years (23.5%). Seasonal moves and repeat moves are much smaller in slope and never rise higher than about 5%.     

Social factors of migration from rural to urban areas with special reference to developing countries: The case of Korea

The current state of Korean internal migration in 1961–75 is examined from three perspectives: (1) where migrants go; (2) who moves; and (3) why they move. It is followed by a closer examination of the experiences that in-migrants to Seoul, the capital city of Korea, undergo in regard to (1) decision-making of migration; (2) job mobility; (3) settlement patterns; and (4) living conditions of squatters. Evaluation of the migration policies named in the Seoul population dispersal and relocation plans leads to a conclusion that they have little concern with the welfare of the urban poor and in-migrants to Seoul.     

中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。     

Change, continuity or cycles: The population turnaround in New South Wales

This study examines population flows from Sydney and other regions to perimetropolitan and coastal areas of New South Wales, the two main foci of the population turnaround since 1971. It uses census internal migration statistics for the five intercensal periods between 1971 and 1996, and estimated resident population statistics between 1997 and 2000. Fluctuating trends are described with respect to variations in age structures of migration flows and net migration gains by SLAs in coastal areas over time. Evidence of fluctuating trends is evaluated in relation to population structure change and local socio-economic multipliers in turnaround areas. The turnaround is far mor than a net migration gain from large metropolitan areas; it is also associated with interregional migration which avoids metropolitan areas, and which is at least in part environment- and amenity-related. The experience of some other countries, such as the USA where net migration reversals in population turn-around regions have occurred, has not been replicated in Australia. While elements of explanation for the complex cumulative causation process of the population turnaround in Australia are discussed, including the issues of fluctuating or cyclical trends, much more understanding of the economic and social factors involved is required.     

Engendering migrant networks: The case of Mexican migration

This article compares the impact of family migrant and destination-specific networks on international and internal migration. We find that migrant networks are more important for international moves than for internal moves and that female networks are more important than male networks for moves within Mexico. For moves to the United States, male migrant networks are more important for prospective male migrants than for female migrants, and female migrant networks lower the odds of male migration, but significantly increase female migration. We suggest that distinguishing the gender composition and destination content of migrant networks deepens our understanding of how cumulative causation affects patterns of Mexican migration.