Changing patterns of Internal Migration 1970–1990: A comparative analysis of jews and whites in The United States

Independently conducted yet complementary sets of data from the 1970/1971 and 1990 National Jewish Population Surveys and the U.S. censuses of the same changes in the internal migration of Jews and whites during the periods 1965–1970(1971) and 1985–1990. Interstate lifetime and five-year migration rates among Jews increased to levels significantly surpassing those of whites. Adjusting Jewish migration rates for the educational achievement of their white counterparts did not have much of an effect on lifetime migration or on the recent migration of the 1970/1971 Jewish population; however, it accounted meaningfully for the migration propensities of Jews in the period 1985–1990. These findings suggest that socioeconomic status has begun to play a larger role in promoting different migration patterns than in promoting ethnic group differences. Further, the direction of Jewish migrations followed those of whites (i.e., from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West); and due to their higher migration rates, Jews have considerably narrowed the regional distribution differences between themselves and whites. I interpret these results as evidence of the weakening role of ethnicity in present-day America.     

A decomaosition of trends in poverty among children of immigrants

Poverty levels among all children in the United States have tended to fluctuate in the past 30 years. However, among the children of immigrants, child poverty increased steadily and rapidly from about 12% in 1970 to 33% in the late 1990s before declining to about 21% in 2000. Using 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples data, we identified key factors that underlie the fluctuations in immigrant child poverty from 1969 to 1999 and the divergence from children of natives. We found that roughly half the absolute increase in immigrant child poverty can be linked to changing conditions in the U.S. economy that make it more difficult to lift a family out of poverty than 30 years ago. These changes occurred disproportionately among children of parents with lower levels of education, employment, and U.S. experience but not among racial/ethnic minorities. Poverty risks among various racial and ethnic groups converged over time. The relative increase in poverty for immigrant versus native children owes largely to the divergence between immigrant and native families in racial/ethnic composition, parental education, and employment.     

Comment on “compromised birth outcomes and infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups”

Frisbie, Forbes, and Pullum (1996) show that it is meaningful to account for low birth weight, preterm delivery, and intrauterine growth-retardation when analyzing differences in compromised birth outcomes and infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups. I compare their findings for the 1987 U.S. birth cohort with findings for the 1988 U.S. birth cohort, using linked birth and infant death vital statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics. I focus on their calculation of fetal growth curves, which are highly at odds with the curves commonly used in the obstetric and pediatric literature. I compare birth outcome distributions and infant death probabilities using Frisbie et al. 's method and other standards. I conclude that Frisbie et al. 's method is not suited for the study of intrauterine growth-retardation at the population level because of the major flaws in gestational age measurement that exist in the type of data they use. An appropriate alternative is to apply a standard of normal intrauterine growth derived from antenatal estimation of fetal weight-for-gestational-age to the vital statistics data.     

Migrant Selection and the Health of U.S. Immigrants From the Former Soviet Union

Few prior studies have investigated the health of U.S. immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU). Utilizing data from the 2000 U.S. census and the 2000–2007 National Health Interview Survey (NIHS), we compare levels of disability of FSU immigrants with U.S.-born whites (ages 50–84). Our findings suggest an “epidemiologic paradox” in that FSU immigrants possess higher levels of education compared with U.S.-born whites, but report considerably higher disability with and without adjustment for education. Nonetheless, FSU immigrants report lower levels of smoking and heavy alcohol use compared with U.S.-born whites. We further investigate disability by period of arrival among FSU immigrants. Changes in Soviet emigration policies conceivably altered the level of health selectivity among émigrés. We find evidence that FSU immigrants who emigrated during a period when a permission to emigrate was hard to obtain (1970–1986) displayed less disability compared with those who emigrated when these restrictions were less stringent (1987–2000). Finally, we compare disability among Russian-born U.S. immigrants with that of those residing in Russia as a direct test of health selectivity. We find that Russian immigrants report lower levels of disability compared with Russians in Russia, suggesting that they are positively selected for health despite their poor health relative to U.S.-born whites.     

Why poverty remains high: The role of income growth,economic inequality,and changes in family structure, 1949–1999

After dramatic declines in poverty from 1950 to the early 1970s in the United States, progress stalled. This article examines the association between trends in poverty and income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure using three measures of poverty: an absolute measure, a relative measure, and a quasi-relative one. I found that income growth explains most of the trend in absolute poverty, while inequality generally plays the most significant role in explaining trends in relative poverty. Rising inequality in the 1970s and 1980s was especially important in explaining increases in poverty among Hispanics, whereas changes in family structure played a significant role for children and African Americans through 1990. Notably, changes in family structure no longer had a significant association with trends in poverty for any group in the 1990s.     

The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates

We examine inferences about old-age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages; (2) the black-white mortality crossover; and (3) the relatively low rate of old-age mortality among Hispanics, often called the “Hispanic paradox.” Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a data set known as the “gold standard” (Cowper et al. 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data, we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.     

Housewife, “gold miss,” and equal: the evolution of educated women’s role in Asia and the U.S.

The fraction of U.S. college graduate women who ever marry has increased relative to less educated women since the mid-1970s. In contrast, college graduate women in developed Asian countries have had decreased rates of marriage, so much so that the term “Gold Misses” has been coined to describe them. This paper argues that the interaction of rapid economic growth in Asia combined with the intergenerational transmission of gender attitudes causes the “Gold Miss” phenomenon. I present a simple dynamic model then test its implications using U.S. and Asian data on marriage and time use.     

Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

Science indicators/1976: A critique

Science Indicators/1976 (SI/76) is the third volume in a biennial series of profiles of contemporary U.S. science and scientists produced by the National Science Foudation under the direction of its National Science Board. The bulk of this volume, as of its predecessors, consists primarily of charts, figures and tables that contain time series data representing resources, activities and products of American science. The implicit theoretical structure that guided the collection of these data, a two-tiered input-output model, is described and criticized as are the data themselves. The diagnosis of U.S. science today that emerges from these data is one of reasonably sound health. But SI/76 is also, again implicitly, a device for projection and here the picture is gloomier: as resources for science dwindle so must the magnitude of the enterprise decline, together quite possibly with the quality of its products. Although brickbats are hurled at SI/76, particularly for its inadequate disaggregation and lack of quantitative analyses, it is judged to be a work of extremely high quality and utility.     

Estimating Educational Differences in Low-Risk Cesarean Section Delivery: A Multilevel Modeling Approach

U.S. rates of cesarean section, and in particular, low-risk cesarean section (LRC) births rose dramatically across the late 1990s and early 2000s, and have since remained high. Although previous research explores how trends in LRC vary between states and across maternal characteristics, within-state heterogeneity has not yet been accounted for, nor has the extent to which maternal and county characteristics might interact to shape the likelihood of a LRC birth. Using U.S. county-level birth data for years 2008–2010 from the restricted National Vital Statistics Systems Cohort Linked Birth-Infant Death Files and the Area Health Resource Files, I conduct race-stratified multilevel analyses to explore the association between the mother’s education, the income of the county in which she gives birth, and the odds of LRC delivery. I find that regardless of race/ethnicity, less education at the individual level and lower income at the county level are associated with higher odds of LRC delivery. There are also persistent racial disparities in these relationships. Non-Hispanic black mothers have the highest overall odds of LRC delivery, yet the effect of both education and county income is greatest for non-Hispanic white mothers. The results highlight the importance of analyzing both individual resources and contextual effects of the county when assessing birthing processes, as both contribute to a mother’s access to and knowledge of natal care.     

The age pattern of first-birth rates among U.S. women: The bimodal 1990s

Between 1990 and 2002, the age pattern of Type I first-birth rates (i.e., the hazard of a first birth) among U.S. women was bimodal. This pattern, driven by changing differential fertility patterns among racial and ethnic groups, reached its apex at the mid-1990s and had almost vanished by the decade's end. Research on first-birth timing has tended to focus on Type II first-birth rates and therefore has failed to identify this larger, bimodal pattern. This article presents the benefits of using Type I rates, documents the emergence of the bimodal pattern via two new measures of bimodality, and uses a decomposition analysis to discuss the pattern's causes.     

The effect of public policies on recent Swedish fertility behavior

In the literature the recent upsurge in period birth rates is seen as evidence of a pronatalist effect of Sweden's extensive social insurance programs. Yet, these explanations can not account for the downturn in birth rates in the 1970s, the delay in childbearing, and the constancy of cohort birth rates which characterize recent Swedish fertility behavior. To summarize the effect of Sweden's economic and policy environment on the observed fertility patterns, I use a neoclassical economic framework to develop the shadow price of fertility. Although strong simplifying assumptions are imposed, the estimated price series exhibit a negative relationship with period fertility rates and the change in the estimated relative prices of fertility over the life cycle lend modest support for the delayed childbearing.The first draft of this paper was written while I was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The research was supported by grants number HD-19226 and HD-28685 from the National Institute of Child Health and Development. I thank Glen Cain, John Kerman, Tom MaCurdy, Duncan Thomas, Michael Tilkin, and seminar participants at University of Illinois, Hoover Institution, and University of Wisconsin for useful comments.     

Population Trends in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan America: Selective Deconcentration and the Rural Rebound

This study uses revised annual population estimates that incorporate adjustments from the 2000 Census to backcast demographic change for U.S. counties during the 1990s. These data are supplemented with new post-censal population estimates for 2001–2003. We use these data to examine demographic trends in the late 1990s and first years of the new century. Our findings are consistent with a model suggesting that a selective deconcentration of the U.S. population is underway. Our findings also confirm the occurrence of the rural rebound in the first half of the 1990s and a waning of this rebound in the late 1990s. Post-censal data also suggest a modest upturn in nonmetropolitan population growth rates in 2001–2003.     

Comparative estimates of teenage illegitimacy in the United States, 1940–44 to 1970–74

Incompleteness in the reporting of illegitimate births in the U.S. vital registration system due to the consistent nonparticipation of a number of large States has left data published by the National Center for Health Statistics open to considerable criticism. Utilizing retrospective marriage and fertility data from the June 1978 Current Population Survey, a national probability sample of 54,000 interviewed households, a time series on teenage illegitimacy for first births is constructed that permits an evaluation of similar Vital Statistics data on teenage illegitimacy since the 1940s. Although there are some indications of a slight underreporting of white illegitimate first births by Vital Statistics during the 1940s and early 1950s, the overall comparison produces a general consensus between the two data sources on the incidence of illegitimacy among both white and nonwhite teenagers for the period 1940–44 to 1970–74.     

Self-reports of child maltreatment in the U.S.: a key social indicator

A key social indicator of the well being of a society is the health and welfare of their children. Child maltreatment is a major problem in the U.S. and the world and the reporting of maltreatment has been the subject of much research and debate. However, little is known about self-reports of child maltreatment. Children face many obstacles that may prevent them from reporting their own maltreatment to authorities. Despite these obstacles, a small percentage of all child maltreatment reports made to child protective services (CPS) in the US are made by the victim. The purpose of this paper is to describe an analysis of reports made to CPS by the child-victim of maltreatment over a three-year period. Results indicated significant differences related to child race, gender and substantiation rate among self-reports and reports made by others. The data utilized in this publication were made available by the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect, Cornell University, Ithaca NY; and have been used by permission. Data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System were supplied by state child protective service agencies to the Children's Bureau or the Administration of Children, Youth and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Funding for NCANDS was provided by the Children's Bureau, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System was implemented by Walter R. McDonald & Associates, Inc. Neither the participating state agencies; Walter R. McDonald & Associates, Inc.; the Children's Bureau, Administration on Children, Youth and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Archive, Cornell University, or its agents or employees bear any responsibility for the analyses, opinions, or interpretations presented here.     

The quality of retrospective data on Cohabitation

We assess the quality of retrospective data on cohabitation by comparing data collected in four major U.S. family surveys: the National Survey of Families and Households and three rounds of the National Survey of Family Growth. We use event-history analysis to analyze rates of entry into cohabitation in age-period-cohort segments captured by multiple surveys. We find consistent discrepancies among the four surveys. The pattern of differences suggests that cohabitation histories underestimate cohabitation rates in distant periods relative to rates estimated closer to the date of survey. We conclude with cautions regarding the use of retrospective data on cohabitation.     

Migration Selection, Protection, and Acculturation in Health: A Binational Perspective on Older Adults

In this article, we test for four potential explanations of the Hispanic Health Paradox (HHP): the “salmon bias,” emigration selection, and sociocultural protection originating in either destination or sending country. To reduce biases related to attrition by return migration typical of most U.S.-based surveys, we combine data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study in Mexico and the U.S. National Health Interview Survey to compare self-reported diabetes, hypertension, current smoking, obesity, and self-rated health among Mexican-born men ages 50 and older according to their previous U.S. migration experience, and U.S.-born Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites. We also use height, a measure of health during childhood, to bolster some of our tests. We find an immigrant advantage relative to non-Hispanic whites in hypertension and, to a lesser extent, obesity. We find evidence consistent with emigration selection and the salmon bias in height, hypertension, and self-rated health among immigrants with less than 15 years of experience in the United States; we do not find conclusive evidence consistent with sociocultural protection mechanisms. Finally, we illustrate that although ignoring return migrants when testing for the HHP and its mechanisms, as well as for the association between U.S. experience and health, exaggerates these associations, they are not fully driven by return migration-related attrition.     

Changes in assortative mating: The impact of age and education, 1970–1890

Data from the U.S. Census and Current Population Survey are used to examine trends in the propensity to marry or to cohabit by the age and educational attainment of potential partners. Marriage rates declined sharply across all age and educational combinations between 1970 and 1980 and declined more sharply for less-educated persons between 1980 and 1990. The rise in cohabitation compensated somewhat for the decline in marriage rates, but the compensation was unequally spread among age and educational combinations. Highly educated men were more likely, and highly educated women were no more or less likely, to marry than to cohabit with less-educated partners in 1970 and 1980. By 1990, however, educational assortative-mating patterns between these two types of unions were similar. In 1990, marriages and cohabitations involving women who were better educated than their partners were more common than those involving women who were less educated than their partners. In addition, men and women in their early 20s tend to have partners better educated than themselves, but persons in their 30s tend to cross the less-than-high-school/ more-than-high-school educational barrier when partners differ in educational attainment.     

Dual Citizenship Rights: Do they Make More and Richer Citizens?

In the 1990s, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Brazil passed dual citizenship laws granting their expatriates the right to naturalize in the receiving country without losing their nationality of origin. I estimate the effects of these new laws on naturalization rates and labor market outcomes in the United States. Based on data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. censuses, In find that immigrants recently granted dual nationality rights are more likely to naturalize relative to immigrants from other Latin American countries. They also experience relative employment and earnings gains, together with drops in welfare use, suggesting that dual citizenship rights not only increase the propensity to naturalize but may also promote economic assimilation. The effects of dual citizenship on improved economic performance, if mediated through naturalization, are consistent with American citizenship conferring greater economic opportunities.     

Did the decline continue? Comparing the labor-market quality of United States immigrants from the late 1970s and late 1980s

The issue addressed in this paper is whether or not the decline in immigrant labor-market quality in the U.S. observed in the late 1960‘s and 1970‘s continued in the 1980‘s. Two other papers, Borjas (1995) and Funkhouser and Trejo (1995), have addressed the issue and have come up with contradictory results. In this paper I use a different data set, one that has advantages over the data sets used in the other studies. Given the rise in earnings inequality that has occurred in the United States over the 1980‘s, the returns to immigration for the more highly skilled will have increased relative to the low skilled, ceteris paribus. For this reason, it is possible that the skill decline of immigrants may have halted in the 1980‘s as immigrants of differing skill levels respond to the altered circumstances they would face in the United States. The empirical results show that the skill decline did indeed halt, a result which gives support to the Funkhouser/ Trejo result. Received July 24, 1995 / Accepted August 22, 1995