FTA建设下中国与海合会经贸关系研究

海合会国家是我国推进"一带一路"战略中的重要地区,本文重点分析了中国与海合会经贸关系的发展现状及中海FTA建设的主要障碍。2001~2013年,中国与海合会国家的双边贸易总额增长了近15倍,中国成为海合会第二大石油进口国,沙特、阿联酋是中国在中东地区排名第一和第二位的贸易伙伴。中国对海合会国家直接投资增长快,但规模较小,海合会对中国的投资集中于石化和金融领域,海合会国家是中国对外工程承包的重要市场。中国与海合会已经举行了五轮FTA谈判,中国应抓住此次国际油价暴跌的机会,加大从海合会进口原油的力度和规模,加快建设石油战略储备,借助建立中海自贸区消除石油贸易的"亚洲升水"问题,推动我国与海合会国家的"1+2+3"经贸合作格局的形成。     

海合会国家能源融合转型：内涵、进展与挑战

随着全球进入碳中和时代,世界能源体系正在发生绿色变革。加速能源转型是新时代海合会国家迎合全球能源需求、履行减碳承诺、构建低碳经济、塑造现代国家的必要选择。立足资源优势和发展利益,海合会国家追求能源融合转型,即促进各种能源资源的融合开发,包括油气产业的低碳转型、可再生能源的大规模开发和氢能开发。近年来,它们在行动上取得了一定进展：“油气+CCUS”等措施快速落地;可再生能源装机容量大幅增长,但高碳的发电结构并未改变;多个氢能项目启动建设。能源融合转型面临部分国家缺乏转型决心、治理体系和治理能力不足、开发模式比较单一、能源补贴抑制投资、技术实力有待增强等严峻挑战。中国是海合会国家能源转型的重要合作伙伴,可开拓双边和多边能源合作新领域,与区域国家共建碳中和时代的能源命运共同体。     

中国与海合会国家金融合作的问题及对策分析

近年来,中国与海合会国家的金融合作形式日益多元,同时也取得了一定成果并积累了宝贵经验,为双方进一步开展金融合作打下了坚实基础。当前,中国与海合会国家的金融合作深度有限,具体表现为金融合作规模增长缓慢,互设金融机构数量不足,合作水平参差不齐、层次不高,平台作用不足等问题。本文从政治环境、金融体系、文化认同等方面分析影响中国与海合会国家金融合作的主要因素,并提出从政治评估、战略对接、货币结算、文化认同等方面进一步提升中国与海合会国家金融合作水平的应对策略。     

海合会应对中东剧变的措施及其影响

2010年中东剧变中海合会国家均受到不同程度冲击,各国采取措施应对,使海合会势力不断上升,成为中东君主制国家和逊尼派国家加强合作、应对地区变局的重要平台。剧变中各国探索转型期间政治改革,巩固了政权,加速现代化进程,使海合会代加强了地区影响;各国进行经济改革,加速经济一体化进程和自贸区建设。但改革不会一蹴而就,石油市场仍是影响海合会成员国经济增长率的决定性因素。革命成功与否海合会都将在阿拉伯政治中发挥强大有效的作用,在发生剧变的国家重建中承担新责任。     

中医药参与海合会国家卫生治理述论

卫生治理是全球治理的重要组成部分。中医药是中国参与中东地区卫生治理的重要载体。中医药参与海合会国家卫生治理对中国在当地推进"一带一路"具有重要现实意义。中医药国际化发展是中国在海湾地区推进"一带一路"的重要动力,也是中国提升文化软实力和外交亲和力的重要依托手段,更是中国参与全球卫生治理的重要路径选择。本文通过考察海合会国家卫生治理的诉求,厘清中医药在海合会地区发展的优劣态势,并从多元合作、产业发展、生态治理三个方面的具体发展路径提出建议。     

中国与海合会国家的信息通信技术合作

中国与海合会成员国的科技交流历史悠久。信息通信技术作为现代高新技术风险投资的重要领域以及构建知识密集型社会的重要衡量指标,将会成为未来中国与海合会成员国之间技术转移的主题。本文通过研究中国与海合会成员国之间信息通信技术转移的历史、现状以及未来预期,探讨中国与海合会成员国如何在技术转移过程中寻求更有价值的合作,以增强各自自主创新的能力。     

21世纪以来中阿经贸合作发展的多维透视

在2001年至2021年间,中国与阿拉伯国家的经贸合作实现了跨越式发展,双边货物贸易额快速增长,贸易结构稳定,沙特和阿联酋等重点市场持续发挥着领头羊作用。能源联系始终是中阿经贸合作发展的主轴,中国即将到来的能源消费峰值可能削弱中阿经贸的增长推力,但基于巨量油气进口的能源联系对中阿经贸合作的推动作用还将持续。除了阿联酋、利比亚和阿尔及利亚以外,中国对阿拉伯产油国都持有巨额逆差,对非产油国持有巨额顺差。中阿经贸合作整体平衡与个体失衡的背后是中国商贸产品的较短产业链和较低附加值。基础设施建设和相互直接投资是中阿经贸“1+2+3”合作格局的两翼,前者发展相对较快,后者则一直在低位徘徊。未来的发展方向是推动阿拉伯国家的工业园区建设,强化中阿在核能、航天、卫星、新能源等高新领域的合作,建立中阿能源命运共同体。     

卡塔尔的军火贸易

在海合会6国中,卡塔尔军队的规模最小,军事实力也最薄弱.为确保国家安全,卡塔尔从西方国家进口了大量的武器装备.本文对卡塔尔国家安全形势进行分析的基础上,介绍了卡塔尔的军火贸易情况,并试对未来卡塔尔军火贸易市场前景进行预测.     

中东剧变与海合会区域经济合作

面对中东剧变的冲击,海合会在联合维护成员国政权稳定的同时,对内深化合作,对外趁势扩员,拓展地区影响。海合会在坚持内部深化策略的同时首次选择扩员,其根源在于海合会国家对自身根本利益的认知,对维护国内政治制度安全稳定的偏好在其区域经济合作中始终发挥着幕后主导作用。海合会内部经济合作将进一步向民生相关的社会经济领域扩展深化,并逐步从消极一体化向积极一体化迈进,同时政治安全因素在海合会经济合作中的幕后主导作用进一步加强,沙特的领导核心地位也愈加突出。中东剧变使海合会在中东区域经济合作中的地位不断上升,但其引领中东区域经济合作的难度也进一步加大。     

卡塔尔的军火贸易

在海合会6国中，卡塔尔军队的规模最小，军事实力也最薄弱。为确保国家安全，卡塔尔从西方国家进口了大量的武器装备。本文对卡塔尔国家安全形势进行分析的基础上，介绍了卡塔尔的军火贸易情况，并试对未来卡塔尔军火贸易市场前景进行预测。     

Back and Forth and Beyond

The Journal invited Tom Andersen, author of major pioneering work on the reflecting team, and his colleagues, to offer comment on The Reflecting Team Process in Training. We thought such a north-south dialogue was in keeping with the spirit of reflecting teams, and the team members in Melbourne and Tromsø agree — Editor.     

Time and aging--mechanisms and meanings

A recent European Molecular Biology Laboratory Conference on Science and Society entitled "Time & Aging--Mechanisms & Meanings" fascinated scientists from different research areas as well as nonscientists. Topics discussed included not only the biological aging process but also the psychological effects of aging and social influences that affect this process.     

Arts and Crafts and Reconstruction

Abstract

This paper examines the role of arts and crafts in reconstructing communities after times of upheaval, their use in creating employment opportunities, and their impact on the nature of South African art history. It looks at craft initiatives during and after the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, and draws parallels with early twentieth-century initiatives, particularly those of Florence Phillips, who founded the Johannesburg Art Gallery in 1910, Emily Hobhouse, who established Boer home industries, and the South African National Union, which promoted the manufacture and use of local products.     

Sexual Compulsivity and Sexual Behaviors Among Gay and Bisexual Men and Lesbian and Bisexual Women

Within the existing body of research, the information pertaining to sexual compulsivity (SC) among women, both homo- and heterosexual, remains rather limited in comparison to men. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of SC in a community sample of gay and bisexual men and lesbian and bisexual women and to identify differences in sexual practices based on classification as sexually compulsive within gender. Supporting previous research, the findings indicated that gay and bisexual men were significantly higher in SC when compared to lesbian and bisexual women. Similarly, sexually compulsive gay and bisexual men were more likely to report drug use with sex than their non-sexually compulsive peers, suggesting that “party n' play” may play a larger role for men with SC. In addition, the findings demonstrated empirical support for the proposition that lesbian and bisexual women with symptoms of SC were more likely to engage in specialized sexual behaviors in comparison to their non-sexually compulsive peers. These data suggest that SC manifests differently in gay, lesbian, and bisexual men and women.     

Evening and night work schedules and children's social and emotional well-being

ABSTRACT

An emerging body of evidence shows that parents’ non-standard work schedules have a detrimental effect on children's well-being. However, only a limited number of studies have investigated mediating factors that underpin this association. Likewise, only a few studies have examined the impact of fathers’ non-standard work schedules on children's well-being. Based on data from the Families in Germany Study (FiD), this study aimed to address these research gaps. The sample consists of parents and their children at ages 7–8 and 9–10 (n?=?838 child observations in dual-earner families). The data were collected in the years 2010–2013. Non-standard work hours were defined as working in evenings and or at night (every day, several times a week, or changing as shifts). Children's social and emotional well-being was measured with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). The findings show that both mothers’ and fathers’ evening and night work schedules are linked to an increase in children's externalizing and internalizing behavior and that this association is partially mediated by mothers’ and fathers’ harsh and strict parenting, with a stronger mediation effect for fathers parenting.     

Thinking and Speech and Protocol Analysis

Some form of verbal report—that is, a research participant' s concurrent or retrospective verbal account of thought processes during problem-solving activities—has been used throughout this century as the database from which psychologists have developed theories of human mentation. Newell and Simon (1972) and Ericsson and Simon (1980, 1993) have provided extensive justification for using one such method, protocol analysis, as a tool for investigating cognition from an information-processing (IP) perspective. Their arguments have characterized protocol analysis as a methodology capable of providing evidence of the ways in which people attend to information stored in short-term memory to solve problems, with the evidence providing them with the grounds from which to generate models of human cognitive processes. A different view of protocol analysis is available from the perspective of cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT) based on the work of Vygotsky (1987), Leont'ev (1981), and others, and its concern with the mediation of human development by culturally and historically grounded signs and tools. Because of its emphasis on culturally channeled development, a CHAT perspective views speech, including the speech that serves as evidence for cognition in psychological research, as a tool that potentially enables changes in consciousness. In this article I outline a CHAT perspective that accounts for protocol analysis along three key dimensions: (a) the relation between thinking and speech from a representational standpoint, (b) the social role of speech in research methodology, and (c) the influence of speech on thinking during data collection. The purpose of this discussion is not to refute the IP perspective on protocol analysis but to illustrate how this method can be viewed through a CHAT lens and to identify alternative assumptions that must be made to use it from a CHAT perspective.