20世纪80年代以来中国人口死亡的水平、模式及区域差异

文章运用模型生命表方法对中国各省、自治区、直辖市20世纪80年代以来的三次人口普查和两次1％全国人口抽样调查的死亡数据建立了时序关系,有规则地进行了调整和修正,并编制了新的简易生命表。文章系统分析了中国人口死亡在不同时期的水平、变化规律和发展趋势。将年龄结构死亡模式变化对期望寿命变动的影响做了分解,考察了不同年龄组死亡率的变动对期望寿命的贡献率。     

Lee-Carter估计模式推算中国农村老年人口死亡率的研究

死亡率的估算与人口老龄化密切相关,中国60岁及以上老年人口主要集中在农村地区,本文运用Lee-Carter模型对农村分性别单岁组的死亡率数据进行建模,预测出农村人口死亡率与期望寿命的发展趋势。     

一九七九年上海市区居民完全寿命表的初步分析

研究人类的寿命是一个重要的医学问题。寿命表是根据年龄别死亡率计算的。它是研究人民健康和疾病及其他因素对寿命影响的一种方法。它既可提供有关人口自然变动的指标,又不象普通死亡率那样受到人口年龄构成的影响。通过计算不但可以了解某一代人总共存活     

近20年来中国人口死亡的性别差异研究

文章利用1982~2000年间人口普查和抽样调查死亡数据及1989、1995和2000年卫生登记死亡数据,用人口因素分解方法研究了中国20世纪80年代初以来死亡水平性别差异的变化趋势、年龄别死亡率性别差异对男女出生期望寿命差异的影响及其发展趋势,比较了各种年龄-死因别死亡率的性别差导对出生期望寿命性别差异的影响。主要结论是中国近20年来女性死亡水平低于男性的趋势在逐渐扩大,造成这种差距的原因在于年龄别死亡率的性别差异及其变动差异。     

我国年龄组平均预期寿命变动的实证研究

平均预期寿命是国内外评价一个国家或地区人口健康状况的重要指标。国家统计局只公布0岁组平均预期寿命,而要进一步研究,则需要分年龄组资料。利用1995年、2005年全国1%人口抽样数据编制分性别、分城乡的完全生命表,在此基础上定量分析得出:我国各年龄组平均预期寿命,女性>男性,城镇>乡村;暂时平均预期寿命的相对增长速度,1995~2005年快于1981~1995年,女性快于男性;老年组死亡率的降低对0岁组平均预期寿命的贡献率最大。     

近50年来世界人口期望寿命的演变轨迹

进入21世纪以来,全球人口已经突破60亿,但是人口增长速度明显减慢。许多国家已经完成了人口转变,其总和生育率在更替水平以下。与此同时,人口健康状况得到明显改善,死亡水平显著降低,期望寿命在不断提高。本文利用联合国人口司发布的192个国家人口死亡信息,系统分析了世界人口平均期望寿命在过去50年里的演变态势、区域差异以及演变模式。结果显示世界人口期望寿命经历了半个多世纪的持续增长,有50%以上的人口或国家平均期望寿命达到了70岁。演变轨迹呈多样化的发展模式,区域发展不平衡。欠发达地区总体上较发达地区增幅大,人口比重上升幅度也很显著。人均期望寿命增幅最大的是亚洲国家,非洲国家与世界不同步,而且区域内差异较大。     

俄罗斯人口发展状况及对中国的启示

本文利用俄罗斯的历史人口数据,对俄罗斯人口数量和结构变动状况进行了分析,并对俄罗斯三次人口转型中的社会经济情况变化对人口变动状况的影响进行了分析。结果表明,俄罗斯的人口出生率下降很快,人口死亡率升高,总和生育率已远低于替代水平,因此人口自然增长率迅速下降,总人口数长期处于下降通道,出生预期寿命不增反降,特别是男性出生预期寿命远低于女性出生预期寿命。在推动人口增长的社会经济相关措施实施后,俄罗斯人口数量仍不能增加,这对目前总和生育率已经很低的中国有一定的借鉴意义。     

谈死亡率对人口年龄构成的影响

死亡率对人口年龄构成的影响是一个值得探讨的问题。有一种意见认为,随着各年龄组死亡率下降,人的寿命延长,年龄较大的人口占总人口比例必然上升,人口趋向老化。从表面上看似乎是这样,但实际情况往往(不是绝对)正相反。之所以会出现这种似乎是反常的现象,原因就在于各年龄组死亡率逐步下降的幅度是大不相同的。多年以来,世界上许多国家各年龄组人口的死亡率都在下降,但其中婴儿和儿童的死亡率     

1991年广州老年死因及寿命分析

建国以来,随着我国经济的日益发展,人民物质文化生活水平的不断提高,卫生医疗保健条件的逐步改善,人口死亡率已从1948年的15.3‰降至1991年的5.09‰,人均期望寿命从解放前的35岁,提高到1991年的74.7岁.随着死亡率的下降,居民平均期望寿命的延长,老年人口的比重也正在逐步增加,人口构成正在趋向老龄化。1991年广州市区     

新冠疫情与世界人口死亡率变动——基于27国人口平均预期寿命的分析

目前关于新冠疫情下人口死亡率变动的研究仍较为有限。对此,基于人类死亡率数据库,测算了27个国家(主要为欧美发达国家)2020—2021年(截至2021年9月26日)的平均预期寿命,并对平均预期寿命的变动进行了分年龄分解。结果表明,27国中绝大多数国家的15岁平均预期寿命在2020年经历了较为显著的下降。其中,美国、俄罗斯和保加利亚的降幅最大,分别达到2.2年、2.1年和1.8年。在2021年,27国平均预期寿命的变动趋势出现分化。其中,西欧和南欧国家的15岁平均预期寿命有所反弹,但少数东欧国家的15岁平均预期寿命则继续下探。进一步的分年龄分解表明,2020年27国15岁平均预期寿命的下降绝大部分是由65岁及以上老年人口的平均预期寿命下降所致,而年轻人口平均预期寿命下降的作用较小。另外,男性在多数年龄上的平均预期寿命降幅大于女性,但在高龄阶段,男性的平均预期寿命降幅要小于女性。值得注意的是,虽然27国中绝大多数国家人口平均预期寿命在2021年有所反弹,但部分国家年轻人口的平均预期寿命降幅仍然显著,并呈现一定的扩大趋势,反映出新冠疫情死亡风险的年轻化特征。研究展示了新冠疫情下人口死亡率变动...     

中国各地区人口预期寿命及地理分布分析

平均预期寿命是世界公认的衡量人类进步的标准。本文以生命表为基础,主要依据我国第六次人口普查资料,计算各省市区的预期寿命并进行相关分析,计算结果表明,2010年中国人口平均预期寿命为78.17岁,男75.86岁,女80.68岁,已进入发达国家行列。预期寿命与婴儿死亡率呈负相关r＝-0.789,与人均国民总收入呈正相关r＝0.604。预期寿命女性比男性长4～7岁,符合一般规律。影响男性寿命低于女性的原因很多,本文重点讨论了遗传因素和生活方式的影响,并对预期寿命的地理分布进行分析。     

How Change in Age-specific Mortality Affects Life Expectancy

At current mortality rates, life expectancy is most responsive to change in mortality rates at older ages. Mathematical formulae that describe the linkage between change in age-specific mortality rates and change in life expectancy reveal why. These formulae also shed light on how past progress against mortality has been translated into increases in life expectancy – and on the impact that future progress may have. Furthermore, the mathematics can be adapted to study the effect of mortality change in heterogeneous populations in which those who did at some age would, if saved, enjoy a different life expectancy than those who live.     

Physical quality of life index: Some international and Indian applications

In this paper, an attempt has been made to construct the physical quality of life index (PQLI) for some countries and for the Indian States as well. Three important indicators, viz. literacy rate, infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth, reflecting the quality of life have been chosen and combined with equal weights to obtain PQLI. The rationale of equal weights, apart from any subjective judgement, may also be found in a mathematical model presented here. It is observed that PQLI rises sharply with per capita GNP but after a certain stage, an increase of per capita GNP is not accompanied by an increase of PQLI.     

A macrodynamic analysis of changes in mortality indexes in the United States, 1946–75: Some preliminary results

This paper extends earlier research by Brenner and by Land and Felson on the specification and estimation of macrodynamic structural-equation models to explain changes in American mortality indexes as a function of exogenous changes in societal conditions (social, demographic, economic, and health care). After reviewing the record of annual changes in several general and cause — specific mortality indexes for the post-World War II United States, patterns of temporal covariation in the indexes are discussed and some tentative structural-equation models are described. Among other findings, these models indicate: (1) that changes in the age structure of the American population have substantial impacts on changes in mortality rates for diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems as well as on deaths due to cirrhosis of the liver, accidents, and violence; (2) that the infective and parasitic diseases mortality rate is more closely related to per capita public health expenditures than to improvements in the general level of living in this post — war period; (3) that the business cycle, as indexed by the unemployment rate, has significant impacts on the cardiovascular, accident, and violence mortality rates; (4) that Brenner's finding of a positive association of an increase in the unemployment rate with an increase in cardiovascular diseases mortality two to three years later is partially mediated by an increase in per capita cigarette consumption during the economic recovery following a recession; (5) that an increase in the per capita level of cigarette consumption increases the respiratory systems mortality rate; (6) that both the general and the respiratory neoplasms mortality rates are more strongly affected by long-term moving averages of annual per capita levels of cigarette consumption than by single-years levels; (7) that the level of the degenerative diseases mortality rate is positively affected by an increase in per capita liquor consumption and negatively affected by an increase in health care utilization; (8) that the percentage of all vehicles traveling on highways at high speed is the exposure index most closely associated (of several that were studied) to the motor vehicle accident mortality rate; (9) that the levels of the maternal and infant mortality rates are positively related to an increase in the fertility rate (exposure) and negatively related to those advances in health care services associated with hospital births; (10) that the accuracy with which short-term changes in the crude mortality rate can be predicted from a knowledge of cause-specific mortality rates and how the latter are affected by societal conditions is effectively limited by the degree of accuracy of predictions of the respiratory diseases mortality rate because of its volatile influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis component; and (11) that short-term changes in the life expectancy index can be somewhat more accurately predicted from such knowledge. Although most of these relationships have been noted before in mortality studies, only a small fraction have been studied in a macrodynamic structural-equation models context. These findings thus constitute a baseline of statistical evidence which can be explored in future research.     

Potential support ratios: Cohort versus period perspectives

The ‘prospective potential support ratio’ has been proposed by researchers as a measure that accurately quantifies the burden of ageing, by identifying the fraction of a population that has passed a certain measure of longevity, for example, 17?years of life expectancy. Nevertheless, the prospective potential support ratio usually focuses on the current mortality schedule, or period life expectancy. Instead, in this paper we look at the actual mortality experienced by cohorts in a population, using cohort life tables. We analyse differences between the two perspectives using mortality models, historical data, and forecasted data. Cohort life expectancy takes future mortality improvements into account, unlike period life expectancy, leading to a higher prospective potential support ratio. Our results indicate that using cohort instead of period life expectancy returns around 0.5 extra younger people per older person among the analysed countries. We discuss the policy implications implied by our cohort measures.     

Improvements in Life Expectancy: 1960–1995 an Exploratory Analysis

Human history observed significant changes in life expectancy over the last three and half decades (1960–1995). This study attempts to explore the determinant factors behind improvements in life expectancy in most of the countries in the Post World War II period. In this context the study estimates a double logarithmic convergence type model where the dependent variable is relative change of life over the period and the explanatory variables are initial per capita real gross domestic product, initial per capita calorie intake as percentage of requirement, adult literacy rate at the initial point of time, and initial physician per thousand of population. The study estimates different variants of the basic model. Female population has been treated separately. All estimates have been offered for three broad income groups low, middle and high. An attempt is also made to take into account the effects of some public health measures such as access to safe drinking water and access to sanitation.     

Diverging Trends in Female Old‐Age Mortality: The United States and the Netherlands versus France and Japan

In the most advanced countries, child mortality and adult mortality under age 65 years have fallen so low that further improvement in life expectancy relies almost completely on the decline of mortality at older ages. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced among women, who are far ahead of men in survival rates. Thus, to project the future of life expectancy, this study focuses on trends in female life expectancy at ages 65 and older. Four countries are selected for this analysis: the United States, Netherlands, France, and Japan. It is particularly interesting to understand why American and Dutch trends in female old‐age mortality have been diverging from those in France and Japan for two decades. It is shown here that most of the divergence derives from the fact that decline in cardiovascular mortality is more and more offset by increases in other causes of death in the United States and the Netherlands, while the other two countries are more successful in reducing mortality from all causes at increasingly older ages. This latter phenomenon could represent a new stage of the health transition.     

Impact of Road Traffic Deaths on Expected Years of Life Lost and Reduction in Life Expectancy in Brazil

The road traffic crash burden is significant in Brazil; calculating years of life lost and life expectancy reduction quantifies the burden of road traffic deaths to enable prioritization of this issue. Years of life lost and reduction in life expectancy were calculated using 2008 population/crash data from Brazil’s ministries of health and transport. The potential for reduction in crash mortality was calculated for hypothetical scenarios reducing death rates to those of the best-performing region and age category. In Brazil, road traffic deaths reduce the at-birth life expectancy by 0.8 years for males and by 0.2 years for females. Many years of life lost for men and woman could be averted—270,733 and 123,986, respectively—if all rates matched those of the lowest-risk region and age category. This study further characterizes the burden of motor vehicle deaths in Brazil and quantifies the potential health benefits of policies/interventions that reduce road traffic death rates to those of the best-performing subpopulations.     

Is 60 the New 50? Examining Changes in Biological Age Over the Past Two Decades

Increasing life expectancy has been interpreted as improving health of a population. However, mortality is not always a reliable proxy for the pace of aging and could instead reflect achievement in keeping ailing people alive. Using data from NHANES III (1988–1994) and NHANES IV (2007–2010), we examined how biological age, relative to chronological age, changed in the United States between 1988 and 2010, while estimating the contribution of changes in modifiable health behaviors. Results suggest that biological age is lower for more recent periods; however, the degree of improvement varied across age and sex groups. Overall, older adults experienced the greatest improvement or decreases in biological age. Males, especially those in the youngest and oldest groups, experienced greater declines in biological age than females. These differences were partially explained by age- and sex-specific changes in behaviors, such as smoking, obesity, and medication use. Slowing the pace of aging, along with increasing life expectancy, has important social and economic implications; thus, identifying modifiable risk factors that contribute to cohort differences in health and aging is essential.     

The impact of federal aid on the quality of life: The case of infant health

Federal grants-in-aid have been a major device for stimulating new programs for improving the quality of life in the United States. This paper assesses the impact of one such grant-in-aid (Maternal and Child Health Services) on improvements in infant health in the American states in the 1950–1964 period. The analysis indicates that how much a state's Maternal and Child Health Services grant was increased or decreased had no systematic overal impact on later changes in that state's infant, neonatal, and fetal mortality indicators. In addition, such grant changes had no major systematic impact when controlling for per capita income, changes in per capita income, population, innovation tendencies, and administrative professionalism.