Improved confidence estimators for Fieller's confidence sets

Fieller's confidence set C_F for ratios of location parameters, although of great importance in practice, is often cited as an example to criticize frequentist theory. The reason is that the set can consist of the whole parameter space and yet the confidence is γ = 1 – α in any case. In this paper, we study the problem of constructing data-dependent estimators better than γ₊, A reasonable estimator appears to be γ₊, which is one if C_F is the whole parameter space and γ otherwise. By using an estimated confidence approach and a squared-error loss, it is shown that γ₊ dominates γ. The risk improvement of γ₊ over γ can be sizable. Also, by numerically comparing γ₊ with a generalized Bayes estimator γ_L, which is shown to be admissible when one or two ratios are concerned, it is shown that γ₊ is nearly admissible. We also conclude that the common practice of reporting 1 – α only when C_F is not the whole parameter space is nearly admissible.     

Improved estimators for the selected location parameters

_i , i = 1, 2, ..., k be k independent exponential populations with different unknown location parameters θ _i , i = 1, 2, ..., k and common known scale parameter σ. Let Y _i denote the smallest observation based on a random sample of size n from the i-th population. Suppose a subset of the given k population is selected using the subset selection procedure according to which the population π _i is selected iff Y _i ≥Y ₍₁₎−d, where Y ₍₁₎ is the largest of the Y _i 's and d is some suitable constant. The estimation of the location parameters associated with the selected populations is considered for the squared error loss. It is observed that the natural estimator dominates the unbiased estimator. It is also shown that the natural estimator itself is inadmissible and a class of improved estimators that dominate the natural estimator is obtained. The improved estimators are consistent and their risks are shown to be O(kn ⁻²). As a special case, we obtain the coresponding results for the estimation of θ₍₁₎, the parameter associated with Y ₍₁₎. Received: January 6, 1998; revised version: July 11, 2000     

Likelihood-based confidence sets for partially identified parameters

There has been growing interest in partial identification of probability distributions and parameters. This paper considers statistical inference on parameters that are partially identified because data are incompletely observed, due to nonresponse or censoring, for instance. A method based on likelihood ratios is proposed for constructing confidence sets for partially identified parameters. The method can be used to estimate a proportion or a mean in the presence of missing data, without assuming missing-at-random or modeling the missing-data mechanism. It can also be used to estimate a survival probability with censored data without assuming independent censoring or modeling the censoring mechanism. A version of the verification bias problem is studied as well.     

Improved estimators for the location of double exponential distribution

In this paper, attention is focused on estimation of the location parameter in the double exponential case using a weighted linear combination of the sample median and pairs of order statistics, with symmetric distance to both sides from the sample median. Minimizing with respect to weights and distances we get smaller asymptotic variance in the second order. If the number of pairs is taken as infinite and the distances as null we attain the least asymptotic variance in this class of estimators. The Pitman estimator is also noted. Similarly improved estimators are scanned over their probability of concentration to investigate its bound. Numerical comparison of the estimators is shown.     

Minimum volume confidence sets for parameters of normal distributions

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Under a proper restriction, we establish the minimum volume confidence set (interval and region) for parameter of any normal distribution. Compared with...     

Improved estimators of a location vector with unknown scale parameter

The problem of estimating, under arbitrary quadratic loss, the location vector parameter θ of a p-variate distribution (p ≥ 3) with unknown covari-ance matrix ∑ = α² D (where D is a known diagonal matrix) is considered. A large class of improved shrinkage estimators is developed for this problem. This work generalizes results of Berger and Brandwein and Strawderman for the case of a known scale parameter and extends the authors’ results for the class of scale mixtures of normal distributions.     

Improved simultaneous confidence intervals for linear contrasts and regression parameters

A well known method for obtaining conservative simultaneous confidence intervals for the K parameters in a linear regression model, or for K linear contrasts, is based on the percentage points of the Studentized maximum modulus distribution. From an inequality due to Sidak, conservative yet uniformly shorter confidence intervals would be possible if the percentage points of a particular form of the multivariate t distribution were available. The purpose of this paper is to provide the required percentage points. For K<8 the resulting confidence intervals can be substantially shorter.     

Exact confidence regions for scale and location parameters based on sample quartiles

In this paper we present relatively simple (ruler, paper, and pencil) nonparametric procedures for constructing joint confidence regions for (i) the median and the inner quartile range for the symmetric one-sample problem and (ii) the shift and ratio of scale parameters for the two-sample case. Both procedures are functions of the sample quartiles and have exact confidence levels when the populations are continuous. The one-sample case requires symmetry of first and third quartiles about the median.

The confidence regions we propose are always convex, nested for decreasing confidence levels and are compact for reasonably large sample sizes. Both exact small sample and approximate large sample distributions are given.     

Simultaneous confidence sets and confidence intervals for multiple ratios

This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously estimating multiple ratios. In the simplest case of only one ratio parameter, Fieller's theorem (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 16 (1954) 175) provides a confidence interval for the single ratio. For multiple ratios, there is no method available to construct simultaneous confidence intervals that exactly satisfy a given familywise confidence level. Many of the methods in use are conservative since they are based on probability inequalities. In this paper, first we consider exact simultaneous confidence sets based on the multivariate t-distribution. Two approaches of determining the exact simultaneous confidence sets are outlined. Second, approximate simultaneous confidence intervals based on the multivariate t-distribution with estimated correlation matrix and a resampling approach are discussed. The methods are applied to ratios of linear combinations of the means in the one-way layout and ratios of parameter combinations in the general linear model. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to compare the performance of the various methods with respect to the stability of the estimated critical points and of the coverage probabilities.     

Clustering confidence sets

In this article, we present a novel approach to clustering finite or infinite dimensional objects observed with different uncertainty levels. The novelty lies in using confidence sets rather than point estimates to obtain cluster membership and the number of clusters based on the distance between the confidence set estimates. The minimal and maximal distances between the confidence set estimates provide confidence intervals for the true distances between objects. The upper bounds of these confidence intervals can be used to minimize the within clustering variability and the lower bounds can be used to maximize the between clustering variability. We assign objects to the same cluster based on a min–max criterion and we separate clusters based on a max–min criterion. We illustrate our technique by clustering a large number of curves and evaluate our clustering procedure with a synthetic example and with a specific application.     

Minimum-area confidence sets for a normal distribution

When making inference on a normal distribution, one often seeks either a joint confidence region for the two parameters or a confidence band for the cumulative distribution function. A number of methods for constructing such confidence sets are available, but none of these methods guarantees a minimum-area confidence set. In this paper, we derive both a minimum-area joint confidence region for the two parameters and a minimum-area confidence band for the cumulative distribution function. The minimum-area joint confidence region is asymptotically equivalent to other confidence regions in the literature, but the minimum-area confidence band improves on existing confidence bands even asymptotically.     

The nonexistence of confidence sets for discontinuous functionals

The paper summarizes and extends various results on the nonexistence of confidence procedures with (locally) uniform covering probabilities.     

Improved point and confidence interval estimators of mean response in simulation when control variates are used

In discrete event simulation, the method of control variates is often used to reduce the variance of estimation for the mean of the output response. In the present paper, it is shown that when three or more control variates are used, the usual linear regression estimator of the mean response is one of a large class of unbiased estimators, many of which have smaller variance than the usual estimator. In simulation studies using control variates, a confidence interval for the mean response is typically reported as well. Intervals with shorter width have been proposed using control variates in the literature. The present paper however develops confidence intervals which not only have shorter width but also have higher coverage probability than the usual confidence interval     

Recursive location and scale estimators

It is shown that a recursive estimator with the same asymptotic properties as the median has convergence properties in finite samples which depend heavily on the scale of the data. A simple modification which adjusts for the scale is suggested and its application illustrated on simulated data. The modified estimator has much improved properties which are similar to those of the sample (non-recursive) median.     

Minimum-volume confidence sets for normal linear regression models

In this article, we establish the minimum-volume confidence sets for normal linear regression models, extending the results in Zhang [Minimum volume confidence sets for parameters of normal distributions. Adv Stat Anal. 2017;101:309–320] on building the minimum-volume confidence sets for parameters of normal distributions. Compared with classical confidence sets, the proposed optimal confidence set is proved to have the smallest volume, for whatever confidence level, sample size and sample data.     

The combined dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood estimators of the location and scale parameters

In this study, two new types of estimators of the location and scale parameters are proposed having high efficiency and robustness; the dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood (DWMML) and the combined dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood (CDWMML) estimators. Three pairs of the DWMML and two pairs of the CDWMML estimators of the location and scale parameters are produced, namely, the DWMML1, the DWMML2 and the DWMML3, and the CDWMML1 and the CDWMML2 estimators, respectively. Based on the simulation results, the DWMML1 estimators of the location and scale parameters are almost fully efficient (under normality) and robust at the same time. The DWMML3 estimators are asymptotically fully efficient and more robust than the M-estimators. The DWMML2 estimators are a compromise between efficiency and robustness. The CDWMML1 and CDWMML2 estimators are jointly very efficient and robust. Particularly, the CDWMML1 and CDWMML2 estimators of the scale parameter are superior compared to the other estimators of the scale parameter.