Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.     

Population behaviour of the southern green stink bug,Nezara viridula, with special reference to the developmental stages of early-planted paddy

Summary Population behaviour of adults and 5th-instar nymphs ofNezara viridula L. was analysed by means of the marking-and-recapture method in an early-planted paddy field. The field contained five varieties of rice which differend in growth states. It was estimated that a total of more, than 7,000 adults of the first generation, in which at least 3,000 were females, invaded the field from early July to middle August. Egg-mass census data, however, indicated that only 10 per cent or less of the females participated in egg-laying. This was largely due to the, low rate of adult survival. The adults preferred younger plants, for both feeding and oviposition. The method described byIwao et al. (1966) permitted estimate that 3,300–3,400 of the 5 th-instar nymphs and 1,100–1,200 of the adults of the second generation were produced from 298 egg-masses (25, 700 eggs); while 95–6 per cent of the individuals were thought to have died before reaching adulthood. Most of the 5 th-instar nymphs moved less than 4 m in three days as long as the condition of food plants remained suitable, but they tended to move more towards younger plants when those on which they lived became too mature. The apparent survival rate of the second generation adults was very low, probably due both to a rapid emigration and a high mortality of newly-emerged adults.     

Norwegian cohort emigration

This paper introduces a counterfactual technique to estimate net emigration from Norwegian birth cohorts from 1846 to 1900. A main finding is that despite strong fluctuations in annual emigration, the percentage reduction of each cohort due to emigration was surprisingly stable for all cohorts from 1846 to 1886, with net emigration of about 30% for males and about 20% for females. Estimating an econometric model of annual male gross emigration by single years of age 15–60 in the period 1870–1914, we find that previous net emigration from a cohort reduces later gross emigration from the same cohort. The estimations also give some justification for attributing this to selectivity of emigration, in the sense that only a certain proportion of each cohort were potential migrants. Received: 1 October 1997/Accepted: 23 March 2000     

Population dynamics of houseflies,Musca domestica, on experimentally accumulated refuse

Summary The population dynamics of the housefly,Musca domestica, on patchy and unstable habitats consisting of refuse was investigated at a waste disposal site by using sticky flypaper and mark-release-recapture technique (Jolly-Seber's method). The newly disposed garbage was favorable for breeding of the flies for about one month after being disposed, while a mixture of garbage and ash from incinerated refuse was less favorable. On the garbage under favorable conditions, the rates of population increase was 1.25–2.82 per day, and approximately 1300–1500 flies were produced per square meter within the available period of one month. The rapid decrease in the fly density was observed just after the appearance of high density peaks. The mark-release-recapture study suggested that this rapid decrease would be mainly due to the density-dependent emigration of adult flies from the patchy habitats. The emigration was also activated when the time after garbage disposition became long.     

Sweden faces zero population growth

In this discussion of Sweden as it approaches zero population growth, focus is on the following: population growth in perspective, fertility trends (childbearing concentrated and cohort versus period fertility), marital status (non-marital cohabitation, out-of-wedlock births, and divorce), women's changing status (increasing education and increasing employment), constraints and supports for women's dual role (family allowances and housing), birth control (contraceptive methods and practice and abortion), mortality trends, changing age structure and the elderly (average population age and proportion of elderly and cost of elderly support), international migration (from emigration to immigration and demographic impact of immigration), immigration policy, recent population debate (immigration issues and facing zero population growth). Since 1900 the primary features of Sweden's demographic history are a continuing decline in the birth rate to very low levels -- relieved by some upward movement in the 1940s and 1960s -- and a marked shift in the migration balance from emigration to immigration. It is almost entirely because of immigration that Sweden's population growth rate has not yet turned negative. If Swedish women were to continue to bear children at the rate that all women in the reproductive ages actually did in 1978, each women would end up with an average well below the level necessary to exactly replace each adult in the population leaving migration out, an annual total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman would have to be sustained for births and deaths to be in balance under the low mortality conditions prevaling in Sweden.     

Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies

The uneven timing of the demographic transition in different countries of the world will lead to divergence between countries in ethnic and religious homogeneity. Developed‐country populations that began their fertility transitions relatively early are becoming increasingly diverse with respect to the ethnic origin and religion of their inhabitants, primarily as a result of high recent levels of immigration. Many demographic patterns of the developed world, such as low death and birth rates, are becoming universal. It might be expected that less developed countries will also turn from emigration to experiencing immigration, as their populations age and their economies develop. This essay suggests, however, that future ethnic diversity arising from immigration may be less marked in many of those developing countries than in the West, especially among latecomers to the fertility transition. Five reasons are advanced as impediments to the globalization of ethnic heterogeneity arising from immigration: demographic, economic, political, and factors related to resource constraints, and climate change. The essay considers what social, economic, and political consequences might arise if high levels of ethnic diversity, and possibly ethnic replacement, remained an idiosyncratic peculiarity of today's developed countries, which would therefore diverge in important ways from the rest of the world as the twenty‐first century unfolds.     

Population Change and Changing Educational Attainment of Ethnic Groups in the United States, 1980–2000

This study assesses the effect of population change on decade changes in the educational attainments of country of origin populations in the United States. Our data are derived from decennial censuses, NLMS, the World Bank, and INS. We find that changes in the share of country of origin populations with one or more years of post-secondary schooling are associated with selected components of population change during the 1980–1990 and 1990–2000 decades. The specific components include survivors during the decade, in-migration, and emigration of the foreign-born. Likewise, intra-generational mobility is found to be an important determinant of changes in educational attainment. The discussion addresses limitations of the data and suggests directions for future research as well as policy implications.     

Anopheles culicifacies giles: Adult ecological parameters measured in rural punjab province, pakistan using capture-mark-release-recapture and dissection methods, with comparative observations onAn. stephensi liston andAn. subpictus grassi

Summary Dispersal, immigration and emigration rates, horizontal and vertical survivorship and absolute population size were estimated for micropopulations ofAn. culicifacies, An. stephensi andAn. subpictus at a series of cattle sheds in rural Punjab Province, Pakistan, during November 1979 and May 1980 using capture-mark-release-recapture and dissection methods. Dispersal was temperature-related, with populations more vagile during May. Mean dispersal distance per individual was low for all species. More than 70% of all recaptures were taken at the point of release and the longest detected flight was 1250 meters. Horizontal survivorship was greater during November and was always less than vertical survivorship calculated from dissection agegrading data. Survivorship during the nulliparous period was greater than survivorship throughout total life, indicating the survivorship curve may be slightly sigmoid. Daily population sizes of endemic and immigrating females and males were calculated usingBailey's (1952) modification of the Lincoln Index, with the daily captures adjusted for immigration which was highest in May. Daily additions to the indoor resting population exclusive of immigrants were estimated using the method ofManly andParr (1968). The relationship of the present findings to malaria transmission and genetic control were discussed.     

Life table analysis of the green rice leafhopper,Nephotettix virescens (distant) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae), and efficient vector of rice tungro disease in asynchronous rice fields in Indonesia

Summary Population dynamics ofNephotettix virescens was studied in 17 paddy fields transplanted at intervals of about 1 month in 1988–1990. The adult density was highest either in the immigrant or the 1st generation and sharply decreased to the 2nd generation. The survival rate of the 1st generation was lowest in the transition season when areal population density increased. Key factor analysis revealed that the nymphal and adult mortality of the 1st generation (kn) was the principal source of population fluctuations. No significant correaltion was found between kn and natural enemy density, natural enemy density/healthy egg density, or the precipitation during the nymphal period. On these bases adult emigration was suspected to be the key factor. Areal population build-up ofN. virescens in the transition season was considered to occur as a result of increasing immigration to young stages of rice. Contribution from Indonesia-Japan Joint Program on Food Crop Protection (ATA 162), which was implemented by the Directorate of Food Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture, Indonesia and Japan International Cooperation Agency, Japan.     

Density-dependent growth and reproduction of the apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata : a density manipulation experiment in a paddy field

To examine density dependence in the survival, growth, and reproduction of Pomacea canaliculata, we conducted an experiment in which snail densities were manipulated in a paddy field. We released paint-marked snails of 15–20 mm shell height into 12 enclosures (pens) of 16 m² at one of five densities – 8, 16, 32, 64, or 128 snails per pen. The survival rate of released snails was 95% and was independent of snail density. The snail density had a significant effect on the growth and egg production of individual snails. This density dependence may have been caused by reduced food availability. The females at high density deposited fewer and smaller egg masses than those at low density, and consequently produced fewer eggs. The females at densities 8 and 16 deposited more than 3000 eggs per female, while the females at density 128 oviposited only 414 eggs. The total egg production per pen was, however, higher at higher snail density. The survival rates of juvenile snails were 21%–37% and were independent of adult density. The juvenile density was positively correlated with the total egg production per pen and hence was higher at higher adult density. However, the density of juveniles larger than 5 mm in shell height, i.e., juveniles that can survive an overwintering period, was not significantly different among density treatments. These results suggest that snail density after the overwintering period is independent of the density in the previous year. Thus, density dependence in growth and reproduction might regulate the population of P. canaliculata in paddies. Received: October 23, 1998 / Accepted: July 16, 1999     

Estimation of demographic measures for India, 1881-1961, based on census age distributions

Abstract India is one of the very few developing countries which have a relatively long history of population censuses. The first census was taken in 1872, the second in 1881 and since then there has been a census every ten years, the latest in 1971. Yet the registration of births and deaths in India, even at the present time, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time Indian census actuaries have indirectly constructed life tables by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Official life tables are available for all the decades from 1872-1881 to 1951-1961, except for 1911-1921 and 1931-1941. Kingsley Davis(1) filled in the gap by constructing life tables for the latter two decades. He also estimated the birth and death rates ofIndia for the decades from 1881-1891 to 1931-1941. Estimates of these rates for the following two decades, 1941-1951 and 1951-1961, were made by Indian census actuaries. The birth rates of Davis and the Indian actuaries were obtained basically by the reverse survival method from the age distribution and the computed life table of the population. Coale and Hoover(2), however, estimated the birth and death rates and the life table of the Indian population in 1951 by applying stable population theory. The most recent estimates of the birth rate and death rate for 1963-1964 are based on the results of the National Sample Survey. All these estimates are presented in summary form in Table 1.     

Control of insecticide resistance in a field population of houseflies,Musca domestica, by releasing susceptible flies

Summary Susceptible houseflies,Musca domestica, were released at a waste disposal site to control insecticide resistance in a field housefly population. In the first experiment, a total of 163,000 pupae of the susceptible Takatsuki strain were released in October–November 1977. LD₅₀ values to fenitrothion and diazinon decreased to about one-sixth in April 1978, five months after the releases, of those before the releases. For the second experiment, a susceptible colony was derived by cross and backcross between a white-eyed substrain of the Takatsuki and a field colony. This susceptible colony consisted of whiteeyed flies with low activity and normal-eyed flies bearing no or one white eye gene. The results of large cage experiments suggested that the normal-eyed males of the susceptible colony had half the mating competitiveness of wild males. Approximately 31,000–46,000 susceptible pupae were used in each of five releases from October to November 1980. The population number of each sex, estimated by a mark-release-recapture method, increased from 12,000 in late September to 35,000–43,000 in middle November and then decreased to 5,000–8,000 in early December. The frequency of field-collected males bearing one white eye gene and those bearing one male determining factor, which were characteristics of the susceptible colony released, increased gradually during the period of releases. The susceptibility of the field population to fenitrothion and diazinon was examined five times in the period from September to December 1980. With time, the dosage-mortality regression gradually shifted towards that of the susceptible colony after starting the releases. LD₅₀ values to fenitrothion and diazinon decreased to about one-sixth and one-fifth, respectively, in June 1981, six months after the second series of susceptible fly releases, of those before the releases. Ratios of the wild flies to the released fiies were estimated to be between 4.7∶1 and 9.8∶1 in males and between 3.0∶1 and 3.9∶1 in females by taking the quality of the released colony and the population parameters of the field houseflies into consideration. Under several assumptions, the manner of resistant phenotype reduction was discussed, based on the dosage-mortality regressions and the ratios of released flies. These results showed that the releases of susceptible flies were successful in suppression of insecticide resistance in the field housefly population.     

Dispersion distance of queens from natal sites in the two haplometrotic paper waspsPolistes riparius andP. snelleni (Hymenoptera: Vespidae)

Summary Dispersion capabilities of new queens were studied in the two haplometrotic paper waspsPolistes riparius andP. snelleni. New queens were marked on the nests in the late summer and located in the next spring. Dispersion distances greatly varied among queens: although a large part of recovered queens nested in close proximity to their natal sites, some did disperse over 100–300 m. This suggests that queens' emigration from and immigration into the censused areas occurred to a substantial extent. On the whole, these species exhibited a weaker “philopatric” tendency than those so far studied for dispersion distance, and seem to have the potential for a long-distance dispersion.     

Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher--and what appear to be more accurate--estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.     

A probabilistic interpretation of the United Nations’ 1995–2005 population projections

I develop probabilistic interpretations for the United Nations’ 10-year population forecasts by comparing 1995 projections for 212 countries to the population sizes reported for 2005. Errors in the estimation of the intrinsic rate of increase, presumably caused by erroneous assumptions about birth, death and/or immigration rates, appear to be more consequential than errors based on inaccurate estimation of the starting, or ‘jump-off’, population size. For only about 20% of the countries did the ‘actual’ 2005 population size fall between the United Nations’ low- and high-variant projections. I propose prediction intervals for country-specific population sizes 10 years in the future of the form [ N_i^￠ (t+10) / k ,  k ·N_i^￠ (t+10) ],[ N_i^{\prime} (t+10) / k , \, k \cdot N_i^{\prime} (t+10) ], where N _i ′(t + 10) is the medium-variant prediction for year t + 10 made in year t, and k is a number that varies with starting population size. Based on the 1995–2005 United Nations’ data, values of k giving 95% coverage range from 1.11 for countries with a population on the order of 10⁹, to 1.45 for countries with a population of 10⁵.     

The effect of World War I and the 1918 influenza pandemic on cohort life expectancy of South Australian males born in 1881–1900

Cohort lifetime distribution functions have been estimated for the twenty separate calendar year cohorts of South Australian males born in 1881–1900. A cohort life expectancy at birth was calculated from each of these distribution functions, and a composite assessment made of the reduction in cohort life expectancy at birth due to both World War I 1914–1918 and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. By partitioning each cohort, the cohort life expectancy at birth of the subgroup that had overseas military service is estimated to be 85 to 90 per cent of the cohort life expectancy at birth of the subgroup that remained in South Australia.     

Who Stays? Who Goes? Selective Emigration Among the Foreign-Born

We investigate the level and selectivity of emigration from the United States among foreign-born adults. We use the CPS Matching Method (Van Hook et al. 2006) to estimate the probability of emigration among foreign-born adults aged 18–34, 35–64 and 65+ from 1996 to 2009 (N = 92,852). The results suggest higher levels of emigration than used in the production of official population estimates. Also, indicators of economic integration (home ownership, school enrollment, poverty) and social ties in the U.S. (citizenship, having young children, longer duration in the United States) deter emigration. Conversely, having connections with the sending society, such as living apart from a spouse, was associated with emigration, particularly among Mexican men. Health was least strongly related to emigration. Simulations suggest that selective emigration may alter the home ownership and marital status, but not health, composition of immigrant cohorts. The implications for public policy are discussed.     

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 1998

This article presents estimates of relevant population numbers and vital rates in Thailand as of July 1, 1998. Utilizing the standard demographic techniques of analysis, the estimates provided are assured to be the most accurate demographic estimates possible. Total population was estimated at 61,143,000. Estimates by sex, locales, region, and by age group are included. In addition, the crude birth rate per 1000 population was estimated at 18.7; the crude death rate per 1000 population was 6.5. For the natural growth rate the estimate was at 1.2%, and the infant mortality rate was 25.0 per 1000 live births. In terms of life expectancy at birth, the estimate for males was 69.9 years, while for females it was 74.9 years. Additional years in life expectancy at age 60 were 20.3 years for males and 23.9 years for females. The total fertility rate per woman is 1.98, and contraceptive prevalence is 72.2%. The demographic data will be disseminated to Thai and international population researchers and planners.     

Immigration,investment, and real wages

When a country is the recipient of large-scale, politically motivated immigration – as has been the case for Israel in recent years – the initial impact is to reduce real wages. Over the longer term, however, the endogenous response of investment, together with increasing returns, may well actually increase real earnings. If immigration itself is not wholly exogenous, but respond to real wages, they may be multiple equilibria, that is, optimism or pessimism about the success of the economy at absorbing immigrants may constitute a self-fulfilling prophecy. Received August 22, 1994 / Accepted August 23, 1995