Assessment of Cigarette Smoking and Smoking Susceptibility among Youth: Telephone Computer-Assisted Self-Interviews versus Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews

This experimental study assesses the effect of two survey methods,telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI)and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), on self-reportsof smoking behavior and smoking susceptibility among adolescents12–17 years of age in California. In T-ACASI, participantslisten to prerecorded, computer-controlled questions and respondby pressing the keypad on a touch-tone telephone. In CATI, interviewersadminister the questions and enter responses into a computer.Prior research suggests that youth may be more likely to reportsensitive behaviors in a self-administered survey like T-ACASIcompared to an interviewer-administered survey like CATI, dueto greater perceived confidentiality. Logistic regression analyseswere conducted on unweighted data, controlling for demographicdifferences. Adjusted estimates of current smoking (past 30days) were significantly greater in T-ACASI (8.3 percent) thanCATI (4.5 percent). Smoking susceptibility (i.e., lack of afirm commitment not to smoke among those who have never smoked)was also greater in T-ACASI (45.0 percent) than CATI (34.9 percent).In both surveys, social desirability response bias was negativelyassociated with smoking, which suggests that response bias wasproblematic for both modes. Many respondents reported that aparent was present during the interview (59.4 percent in CATI;42.0 percent in T-ACASI). In both surveys, parental presencewas negatively associated with smoking, which suggests thatthis factor could also contribute to underreporting. Applicationof sample weights to the data eliminated the survey mode effects;however, the CATI current smoking estimate (9.3 percent) fromthis study was significantly less than an estimate (14.2 percent)obtained from a self-administered, school-based survey conductedthe same year on California adolescents.     

A Comparison of Survey Techniques on Sensitive Sexual Behavior in Italy

This article compares two national surveys carried out through the most commonly used procedures in Italy: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) and SAQ-FI (self-answered questionnaires following interviews). Both surveys ask two identical questions concerning sensitive sexual behavior: early age at first intercourse and same-sex attraction. The SAQ-FI survey had both unit non-response and item non-response rates much lower than the CATI survey. Moreover, in the CATI survey, the groups with highest item non-response rates were also the groups with the lowest proportions of early intercourse and homosexual attraction. In addition, a differential analysis of the respondents produced diverse results for the two surveys. This is especially true of results by gender for same-sex attraction: Such behavior is more common among men (3.1%) than women (2.9%), according to the CATI survey, whereas the opposite is true of the SAQ-FI survey (6.1% of men vs. 7.7% women). In Italy at the beginning of the 21st century, CATI surveys reveal a lower level of early intercourse and same-sex attraction than SAQ-FI surveys. This article argues that the CATI survey underestimates the true level of these sensitive sexual behaviors in the Italian population.     

Meta-cognition and resistance to political persuasion: evidence from a three-wave panel study

ABSTRACT

We investigate the temporal course of meta-cognition and resistance processes following exposure to counter-attitudinal information in the 2012 Presidential election. Using a unique 3-wave survey panel design, we tracked eligible voters during the last months of the 2012 campaign and experimentally manipulated exposure to negative political messages targeting Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on an online platform. As predicted, we found that politically unengaged (vs. engaged) individuals were less likely to counter-argue a message attacking their favored candidate. Resistance, in turn, led to increased attitudinal certainty, polarization, and correspondence with actual voting behavior over the course of the campaign. These findings provide the first analysis of the longitudinal effects of meta-cognitive processes underlying persuasion for real-world attitude change and behavior.     

中国城市的社会阶层与基层人大选举

与强调用民主价值观、政治效能感解释中国基民人大选举中人们投票行为的思路不同,作者将阶层政治论的基本逻辑用于解释投票行为。该理论的理性选择解释把阶层利益作为核心阐明变量,而阶层政治的社会心理解释则强调阶层认同的不可或缺性。运用逻辑斯蒂回归及检验模型间系数差异的自助法对CGSS2006数据的分析结果,支持了基于这两种解释的研究假设。公职新中产、市场新中产、小业主与自雇者均比工人更有可能参加投票;而这又由其收入更高、更认同中产阶层来阐明;收入越高越认同中产阶层;收入越高、越认同中产阶层就越有可能参加投票。归纳这些研究发现,并进一步整合理性选择与社会心理解释,作者认为阶层利益不但是联系阶层地位与投票行为的机制,还通过阶层认同阐明阶层地位与投票行为间的因果关联;阶层政治论是分析当前中国民众政治参与的一种有效理论工具。     

The two-party system under alternative voting procedures

Countries that elect their policy-makers by means of Plurality Voting tend to have a two-party system. This observation can be explained by the strategic behavior of voters. This article derives two broad classes of voting procedures under which strategic voting behavior induces a two-party system under standard assumptions on voter preferences. One class consists of the voting procedures with unique top-score, i.e., under which a voter can cast a top-score vote for only one candidate (e.g., Plurality Voting, Borda Count). The other class consists of the voting procedures that permit truncated ballots, i.e., under which voters do not have to cast all their votes (e.g., Approval Voting). This analysis suggests that the key for strategic voting behavior to induce a two-party system is that voters can always cast a different score for the two candidates they rank first and second on their ballots.     

Certainty Broadcasts Risk Preferences: Verbal and Nonverbal Cues to Risk-Taking

People often attempt to ascertain how risky another person is willing to be. Even when this information is not purposely divulged, people may unwittingly broadcast their willingness to take risks by displaying cues to their level of certainty. Because subjective reports of feeling certain predict risk behavior, we examined whether targets’ certainty could be discerned unobtrusively and be used to predict their risky decision-making. In small groups, participants discussed two risk problems, made risk decisions, and then wrote an essay about their decision-making process. Participants’ nonverbal behavior and speech content during the group interaction, and their subsequent essay content were assessed by naïve coders and objective word-count software for cues to certainty. Subjective assessments of nonverbal behavior and objective assessments of language content revealed that certainty cues predicted greater risk propensity. Therefore, across the three communication modalities of nonverbal behavior, speech, and text, more certainty cues revealed risky behavior.     

Solidarity Revisited: Group-level Effects on Individual-level Union Voting

Rooted in the theory of planned behavior, our empirical reinvestigation of archived union certification election data provided strong evidence that workgroup solidarity was a significant predictor of individual voting behavior. Specifically, group-level attitudes toward unions accounted for individual voting behaviors beyond the individual-level attitudes toward unions. This study offers a meaningful increment to our knowledge as it provides a quantification of the extent that employees are willing to, and actually, comply with subjective norms. Important practical implications for both unions and employers as well as directions for future research are discussed.     

Strategic, sincere, and heuristic voting under four election rules: an experimental study

We report on laboratory experiments on voting. In a setting where subjects have single-peaked preferences, we find that the rational choice theory provides very good predictions of actual individual behavior in one-round and approval voting elections but fares poorly in explaining vote choice under two-round elections. We conclude that voters behave strategically as far as strategic computations are not too demanding, in which case they rely on simple heuristics (under two-round voting) or they just vote sincerely (under single transferable vote).     

MITIGATING HYPOTHETICAL BIAS IN STATED PREFERENCE DATA: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS TOURISM

One of the major criticisms of stated preference data is hypothetical bias. Using a unique dataset of both stated and actual behavior, we test for hypothetical bias of stated preference survey responses. We consider whether respondents tend to overstate their participatory sporting event behavior ex ante when compared to their actual behavior at different registration fees. We find that stated behavior accurately predicts actual behavior at a middle level of respondent certainty, overpredicts actual behavior at a lower level of certainty, and underpredicts behavior at a higher level of certainty. This result suggests that respondent uncertainty corrections can be used to mitigate hypothetical bias and stated preference data can be used to better understand actual behavior in situations where no data exist. (JEL L83, Q51, Z2)     

Crossing the line: The determinants of picket line crossing during a faculty strike

This study builds on the strike-militancy literature by examining the determinants of the union member’s decision to cross a picket line during a 29-day university faculty strike. As hypothesized, voting behavior in authorization and ratification elections significantly predicted crossing behavior, suggesting that strike voting may provide information about the level of support for the strike and, in turn, the level of bargaining power. In addition, satisfaction with the administration, union commitment, attitudes toward unions, co-worker social support, and the perceived cost of striking were significantly related to crossing behavior.     

TEMPATIONS OF POWER AND CERTAINTY

In our search for guiding principles out of which to conduct therapy, we encounter two temptations: temptations of power and certainty. When therapists do not adequately account for the position of our clients, we fall prey to the temptation of certainty. When we attempt to impose corrections from such certainty, we fall victim to the temptation of power. Colonization occurs in therapy when our commitment to "expert knowledge" blinds us to the experience in the room. This paper offers suggestions for sidestepping power/certainty by constrating therapies of power and certainty with therapies of curiosity and empowernment.     

VOTING, SPATIAL MONOPOLY, and SPATIAL PRICE REGULATION

Regulations often require that local public utilities engage in high rates of freight absorption. These regulations, often mandating uniform pricing, are shown to arise logically as a consequence of self-interested voting behavior. We specifically consider the case of a single-plant spatial monopoly which is regulated by consumers distributed around the plant. Consumers may change their delivered price by voting to require a rate of freight absorption which differs from the profit-maximizing rate. Voting outcomes under a median voter model predict the high rate of freight absorption often observed in practice.     

Wahlbeteiligung im Lebensverlauf

This empirical investigation attempts to answer the question whether the change in voter turnout at the German general elections is related to cohort specific voting behavior of political generations, also taking into account age and period effects. Furthermore, it is asked whether the decline of voter turnout after the 1972 German general election is a statistical artefact of official statistics. Both questions are investigated with retrospective life history data about voting behavior of individuals from several birth cohorts. It is analyzed that the voter turnout has really declined in the 1980s because of the increased number of determined non-voters. There is evidence that the changes of the voting behavior of younger individuals in successive political generations results in the social change of the general voter turnout. While the effects of the citizens’ age on the voter turnout are minimal for the whole period between 1953 and 1987, the impact of period effects are less important for the historical change of voter turnout as often assumed.     

What Drives the Voting on Abortion Policy? Investigating Partisanship and Religion in the State Legislative Arena

Abstract

Much of the public policy debate on abortion now centers in the nation's state capitals. This research assesses the impact of partisanship and religiosity on the voting behavior of state legislators. Recent research indicates that a legislator's religious affiliation and the religiosity of their home districts can be a powerful predictor of votes on abortion bills, but this research uses a unique data set developed to analyze voting in the Florida House of Representatives to re-test those ideas and test several new ones. This work challenges the notion that member religion or district religiosity is more influential than partisanship in predicting votes on abortion. Ordered probit techniques show partisanship, gender and legislator religion (for Catholic and Jewish members only), to be the most significant predictors of abortion voting behavior. A number of district characteristics are found to be less significant. Theoretically, this suggests that legislators fulfill their party obligations as trustee on the floor of the House, more so than following constituent interests in the classic delegate role, as originally noted by Burke.     

EFFECTS OF WELFARE REFORM ON WOMEN'S VOTING PARTICIPATION

This study investigates the effects of welfare reform in the United States in the 1990s on voting among low‐income women. Using the November Current Population Surveys with the added Voting and Registration Supplement for the years 1990 through 2004 and exploiting changes in welfare policy across states and over time, we estimate the causal effects of welfare reform on women's voting registration and voting participation during the period in which welfare reform unfolded. During this time period, voter turnout was decreasing in the United States. We find robust evidence that welfare reform led to smaller declines in voting (about 3 to 4 percentage points, which translates to about 10% relative to the baseline mean) for women who were exposed to welfare reform compared to several different comparison groups of similar women who were much less exposed. The robust findings suggest that welfare reform had prosocial effects on civic participation, as characterized by voting. The effects were largely confined to presidential elections, were stronger in Democratic than Republican states, were stronger in states with stronger work incentive policies, and appeared to operate through employment, education, and income. (JEL D72, H53, I38, J21)     

Impartiality,friendship-networks and voting behavior: Evidence from voting patterns in the Eurovision Song Contest

What is the extent to which a country's political institutions impact aggregate voting behavior in a comparative perspective? More specifically, are citizens in some countries more inclined vote on the basis of ‘quality’ or ‘merit’ over ‘friendship’ or ‘loyalty’, and if so, why? This paper seeks to address how the extent to which a country's political institutions are impartial (treats all citizens equally, free from corruption, strong rule of law) impact aggregate citizen behavior. When political institutions are more (less) impartial, success in society is more often on the basis of merit (patrimonial ties). This test cases is voting in the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) from 1975 to 2012 among pairs and blocs of ‘voting friends’. The theory elucidates that given that certain pairs or blocs exhibit systematic voting bias for one another over time, the bias will be considerably less among impartial states than those with highly partial institutions. Using several measures of ‘friendship’, I find strong empirical evidence for this claim, even when controlling for myriad alternative factors and taking into account various voting regimes. The analysis gives us new insights on how political institutions condition aggregate citizen behavior in general and that although there is much bias in ESC voting, not all bias is equal among friend-countries.     

Response Validity in Surveysof Voting Behavior

This paper presents the results of a project which validatedthe reported registration and voting behavior of respondentsin a national election study. The accuracy of reported votingbehavior in the 1976 general election is assessed in terms ofthe demographic characteristics of the respondents to the Centerfor Political Studies National Election Study as well as theextent of their participation in a survey panel begun in 1972.Increased levels of registration and turnout are observed inassociation with the number of interviews in which respondentsparticipated, and three alternative social psychological modelsof the effects of preelection interviews are evaluated. Althoughthe interview apparently served as a stimulus to voting, neithera model associated with self-concept theory nor alienation theoryappears to explain the phenomenon adequately. The intervieweffect is significant and appears to be cumulative, indicatingthat researchers usingthe survey method with panel designs shouldbe sitive to the effects of their method on the behavior whichthey are tryingto measure.     

THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF A NEW VOTING GAP MARITAL DIFFERENCES IN AMERICAN VOTING

There is now a marriage gap in presidential voting in the UnitedStates, with married people voting about 10%–15% moreRepublican than unmarried people. This voting difference developedin the 1972 election, and it is also evident in party identification.The proportion of unmarried people has doubled since 1964, sothis cleavage is important. The gap can be explained statisticallyin terms of race and income, but still may give politiciansthe opportunity to gain votes by appealing to voters on thebasis of family issues.     

Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior?

This article summarizes the findings of the effect of exit pollson voting behavior. Both macro and micro methods have been used,and no methods are perfect. Exit polls appear to cause smalldeclines in total voting in areas where the polls close latefor those elections where the exit polls predict a clear winnerwhen previously the race had been considered close.