The Flag or the Pocketbook: To What are Immigrants a Threat

An increasing number of immigrants and rising unemployment rates are widely thought to contribute to the electoral success of extreme right parties in Western Europe. However, no study explicitly posits the causal mechanism that links the aggregate level factors of immigration and unemployment to the electoral success of extreme right parties, and systematically analyzes whether and how this mechanism works. Thus, the causal connection between immigration, unemployment and extreme right success remains at best ambiguous. I argue that the causal mechanism linking immigration and unemployment to extreme right electoral performance is the development of anti‐immigrant attitudes at the individual level. In this paper, I examine how unemployment and immigration affect individuals’ attitudes toward immigrants. This examination furthers our understanding of the actual dynamics of how unemployment and immigration influences the electoral success of extreme right parties. I find that greater unemployment rates increase the probability that an individual will have an anti‐immigrant attitude only when immigration is already at a high level. Similarly, increasing immigration alone does not always increase the probability that an individual will have an anti‐immigrant attitude.     

Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.     

Real household income and attitude toward immigrants: an empirical analysis

Previous studies have analyzed the (aggregate) effects of unemployment on attitudes towards immigrants and on right-wing crimes. In this paper, we investigate the effects of economic prosperity on attitudes towards immigrants, focusing not only on unemployment status but also on real household income. Using panel data from the German Socioeconomic Panel on around 33,000 individuals over the period 1992–2004 we find a robust negative relationship between real personal household income and self-declared concern about immigrants, both in levels and first differences. Both job loss and income reduction concerns about immigration. Our findings document an interesting interaction between economic variables and social attitudes which does not depend on economic growth per se but on its capacity to generate higher economic wellbeing at individual level, not only for unemployed people but also for those in employment, who may face a fall in real income during economic downturns.     

The effect of immigration on aggregate native unemployment: an across-city estimation

This study investigates the relationship between the rate of immigration into various cities in various years and the level and change in unemployment. In pooled regressions, immigration lagged one year does not show a statistically significant effect either by itself or when other lags are added. Individual regressions using the difference in unemployment rates over time show a slight, but statistically insignificant, positive displacement effect over two-year periods. The evidence indicates that there is little or no observed increase in aggregate native unemployment due to immigration, even in the relatively short run during which adjustment frictions should be most severe. We are grateful to Bryan Boulier, Charles Brown, Glen Cain, Robert Goldfarb, Allen Kelley, Mitchell Kellman, Wallace Oates, Albert Rees, and Edward Reubens for reading earlier drafts and generously giving us their criticism and ideas.     

Measurement and determinants of efficiency in the municipal police service

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of the police service in Spanish municipalities with a population of more than 50,000 inhabitants. Using Data Envelopment Analysis, we obtain the efficiency levels and the targets that the input and outputs have to reach to be efficient in the provision of the police service. Next, and based on the literature, the effect of the following environmental variables is verified: young population, number of foreigners, unemployment, municipal per capita income, tourist level of the municipality, and ideology and political strength of the municipal government. Findings show that an increase in the number of young people in the municipality means an improved efficiency in the local police service. In contrast, cultural diversity (measured by the percentage of foreigners in the total population), unemployment, the mayor's ideology and political fragmentation of government do not have a significant effect on the level of efficiency. On the other hand, higher municipal per capita income means less efficiency, while an increase in tourism activity is related to the improvement of this.     

Propensity of Canada's Foreign‐born to Claim Unemployment Insurance Benefits

This article examines the relationship between claiming unemployment insurance benefits in Canada and the immigrant class under which immigrants were admitted (namely skilled workers, assisted relatives, family class, refugees), using a new data set that combines income tax and immigration records. Claims rates (or the proportion of immigrants who claimed unemployment insurance benefits) are calculated for each immigrant landing class for the cohorts of immigrants who landed in 1980, 1985 and 1989; for each cohort, annual claims rates are presented from the year after landing to 1995. The claims rates indicate that there are significant differences among the different immigrant landing classes: those admitted as skilled workers have relatively low claims rates, those in the family class or assisted relatives have higher rates, and refugees have the highest rates. For all immigrant landing classes, claims rates rise rapidly during the two or three years after arrival in Canada, but decline thereafter for all classes. Differences in claims rates on unemployment insurance benefits remain across the immigrant landing classes after general economic conditions and some characteristics of the immigrants are controlled.     

Caribbean immigrants in Britain and Canada: socio-economic adjustment

This paper compares the socioeconomic experiences of Caribbean immigration in Britain and Canada and shows how differing immigration trends together with changing economic circumstances influenced the process of integration. Caribbean immigrants in Canada are more recent arrivals than those in Britain and, in 1981, were still experiencing initial adjustment problems aggravated by an economy in which unemployment is still high. Unlike Britain, which has a large population born in that country of West Indian parentage, the "2nd generation" in Canada is small and mostly still in school. Despite higher levels of education and qualifications than their counterparts in Britain, Caribbean immigrants in Canada faced similar problems. Males were relatively more concentrated in manufacturing industries in Canada and in transportation in Britain, sectors which were undergoing significant structural change and experiencing high levels of unemployment. Earned income was below average in both countries but there were interesting gender differences. Caribbean women experienced the same "earnings gap", relative to men, that characterized most women in the labor force. However, Caribbean women were relatively more successful than men, as measured by unemployment rates and earned incomes. This appears to be due to their qualifications in nursing and other service occupations that continued to expand, and to be in demand in the 1970s and 1980s, when other occupations were declining in response to technological change and "post-industrial" developments. In both countries there were residual disadvantages, faced by Caribbean men and women, which cannot be statistically explained by factors such as age, education, period of immigration, or structural changes in the economy. These can be attributed, at least in part, to the institutionalized prejudice and discrimination against racial minorities which is prevalent in both societies. In absolute terms Caribbean immigrants in Canada are clearly better off than their counterparts in Britain. However, relative to other immigrants, and the native-born population with similar demographic characteristics and educational qualifications, those in Canada experience similar disadvantages.     

Immigration and unemployment in Australia

"This article is presented in two parts. The first contains a discussion of Australia's migration programme, its different categories and changes in intakes. It also deals with the contribution made by immigration to the size of the labour force.... The second part deals with the effect of immigration on the unemployment rate and concludes that its effect is negligible or, at best, slightly positive.... Against this background the paper discusses factors contributing to the employment and unemployment experience of migrants, for whom English language proficiency and the possession of recognized skills and qualifications are important in determining employability." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

The employment effects of immigration: a balance sheet approach

The impact of immigration on unemployment in Canada is examined for the period 1983-1985. The authors attempt to construct a balance sheet of immigration in terms of labor supply and demand. They conclude that immigrants create more jobs than they fill, and that their net effect on the employment situation is positive. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Private Financial Transfers,Family Income,and the Great Recession

Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,701; 1998–2010), the authors studied whether the unemployment rate was associated with private financial transfers (PFTs) among urban families with young children and whether family income moderated these associations. They found that an increase in the unemployment rate was associated with greater PFT receipt and that family income moderated the association. Poor and near‐poor mothers experienced increases in PFT receipt when unemployment rates were high, whereas mothers with incomes between 2 and 3 times the poverty threshold experienced decreases. Simulations estimating the impact of the Great Recession suggest that moving from 5% to 10% unemployment is associated with a 9‐percentage‐point increase in the predicted probability of receiving a PFT for the sample as a whole, with greater increases in predicted probabilities among poor and near‐poor mothers.     

Does unemployment increase suicide rates? The OECD panel evidence

Previous studies of whether unemployment increases suicide rates give mixed results. None of them controlled for an interaction between unemployment and income. This paper tests the hypothesis whether the relationship between unemployment rates and suicide rates vary according to the level of real per capita GDP. We use the cross-country panel fixed effects approach to exclude cross-sectional variations but exploit time-series ones. We support that higher income is associated with higher suicide rates. In particular, the evidence shows that the implied effect of unemployment on suicide rates is positive for countries with higher income. Actually, for countries with lower-income levels, there is a negative impact of unemployment on suicides.     

The new hosts: the case of Spain

The author examines recent changes in the characteristics of immigration in Spain. Aspects considered include migrant origin, social and demographic characteristics, economic activity, unemployment, age structure, and educational level. The extent of illegal immigration is also discussed.     

The Receipt of Transfer Payments by Immigrants in Sweden

Using the native-born as a benchmark, this article examines the reliance of immigrants on Sweden's social safety net. Both in the raw data, and after conditioning on a number of explanatory variables, we find that there are differences between immigrants and natives regarding participation in the Swedish income security system. We also find that there are differences in this respect between immigrants from different regions as well as between more recent and earlier cohorts of immigrants. As regards unemployment insurance benefits and cash labour market assistance, no clear pattern can be discerned in the results. In the case of early retirement pension and social assistance, however, the picture looks different. Immigrants arriving at an early date from typical labour immigration regions are over-represented in early retirement. Immigrants, especially non-European immigrants with a recent date of arrival, are over-represented among recipients of social assistance. The overall conclusion is that the immigrants' total rate of participation in the income security system is determined by their rate of unemployment and their state of health. On the other hand, the distribution of their participation among the different components of the income security system is highly dependent on their length of residence in Sweden and where they come from.     

The Global Welfare Economics of Immigration

We study the effect of immigration on global welfare. The world is modeled as consisting of two regions, South and North, the former populated by low-skill workers, and the latter by both low- and high-skill workers. Production in the North uses both labor inputs in a complementary way. A trade union in the North keeps the wage of low-skill workers above the Walrasian wage, generating unemployment of low-skill workers. Northern citizens fund unemployment benefits for workers through taxation. Immigration from South to North has two effects in the North: a mixed native-foreign working-class lowers union power, because of reduced solidarity among low-skill workers, and hence it lowers the mark-up on the Walrasian wage that the union is able to negotiate. It also lowers the solidarity between employed citizens and the unemployed (as the latter, now, consist in part of non-natives) and thus the unemployment benefit, set by a democratic process, falls. We calculate the optimal levels of immigration, from the viewpoint of an observer who maximizes global welfare, according to an egalitarian and a utilitarian social welfare function. We compare these levels to the open-borders-equilibrium level. We find that the optimal level of immigration for the cosmopolitan egalitarian is significantly less than the open-borders equilibrium level, while the optimal level for a global utilitiarian is significantly greater than the open-borders level.     

An analytical paradigm for the analysis of national inmigration patterns

This study proposes and demonstrates an analytic paradigm based upon a substantive categorization of a set of inmigration correlates. It exemplifies the notion of categorizing, analyzing according to the categorization, and subsequently discussing the phenomenon in more depth. The paradigm has 2 steps: 1) the variables are categorized according to the cells resulting from the intersection of a preferably small number of nominal dimensions and 2) the data are analyzed, directly anchored in the prior categorization. The data used is Israel's 1983 census macro-data gathered from the Central Bureau of Statistics for the Israeli towns with populations of at least 5000. The authors defined 6 variables as push variables and 4 as pull variables. Results of the regression employing push variables show that 4 variables accounting for 72% of inmigration were found to significantly predict inmigration: 1) unemployment, 2) percentage of Asians-Africans, 3) town size, and 4) religiosity. Within the pull classification, the regression analysis reveals that 2 of the 4 variables explain 31% of the inmigration variance: 1) educational level (26%) and 2) income (5%). The 1st regression analysis on the 2nd dimension shows that the percentage of Asian-African origin and town population size account for 32% of the immigration variance. In the 2nd regression analysis, unemployment explains 48% of the inmigration variance and educational level explains 8%. In the 3rd regression, only home crowding explains a significant amount of the immigration variance (19%). Results of a multiple regression analysis show that unemployment level, percentage of Asian-Africans, population size, and level of religiosity account for 72% of the inmigration variance. Thus, the characteristics of a town inmigrating (push variables) are demographic, economic, and social. However, the attractive features of a town are only economic. Among all economic factors, unemployment is primary. In addition, not only are both percentage of Asians-Africans and population size significantly deflective of inmigration, but each also plays a separate and independent role.     

Einkommenseinbu?en durch Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland:

The article analyses the consequences of unemployment for earned income after reentering employment. The magnitude of these effects and their changes over the life course are described on the basis of existing research as well as own empirical analyses. The latter are based on administrative data from the German Pension Insurance (Versicherungskontenstichprobe VSKT 2006). Since previous studies differ with regard to both, sample definitions and the applied methods of causal analysis, our own empirical analysis of age- and gender-specific effects is based upon various methods of analysis while using a common dataset. We can show that income and wage penalties due to unemployment increase significantly with age. Moreover, women??s overall financial losses are higher than men??s, especially in the youngest age group.     

Difficulties in Shifting from Individualistic to Socio-political Policy Regarding Disability in Canada

An individualistic conception of disability has been replaced by a socio-political definition. The socio-political model implies that disability stems from the failure of the social environment to adjust to the needs of people with disabilities rather than from the inability of disabled individuals to adapt to societal demands. This paper will examine the extent to which Canadian policies have changed to embrace this new definition. There has been some progress in policies related to shelter, transportation and recreation. However, policies related to income and employment are still individualistic in nature because policy change in these areas requires a major shift in governmental approach to unemployment and fundamental reform of the Social Assistance system. In a period of high unemployment, people with disabilities are viewed as surplus labour, and the Canadian government has found that high unemployment is politically tolerable. Obstacles to an increase in income support include a strong work ethic, the philosophy that social assistance benefits should be less than could be earned in the work-force, and the private insurance and litigation industries which benefit from the current income system. Other barriers to change are the lack of power of disabled groups and the dominance of professionals.     

Immigration to Spain: implications for a unified European Union immigration policy

A unified immigration policy is one of the prerequisites for establishing the free movement of people within the European Union (EU). This paper considers the difficulties in establishing a joint policy on the free movement of people within the EU by focusing upon changing immigration policies in Spain. By comparing Spain, a country of only recent, small-scale immigration, to Germany, a country with a longer history of non-European immigration, obstacles to developing and effectively implementing coordinated immigration policies among EU members can be elucidated. The administrative control of entry, estimates of legal and illegal immigrants in the country, and the status of bilateral relations with Morocco are examined in order to highlight the political difficulties encountered in a unified immigration policy both within Spanish society and for the EU. Spain is both a threshold to the EU and a destination. Border control may be the easiest part of implementing a joint immigration policy in the EU. It is more difficult to control settlement. In addition, high rates of unemployment may result among the native host country populations as immigrants more readily accept low-skilled, low-paying jobs.     

NEW MEASURES OF THE COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE SUBJECTIVE WELL‐BEING OF 3.3 MILLION AMERICANS

Using two large U.S. surveys, we estimate the effects of unemployment on the subjective well‐being (SWB) of the unemployed and the rest of the population. For the unemployed, the nonpecuniary costs of unemployment are several times as large as those resulting from lower incomes, while the indirect effect at the population level is 15 times as large. For those who are still employed, a one percentage point increase in local unemployment has an impact on well‐being roughly equivalent to a 4% decline in household income. We also find evidence indicating that job security is an important channel for the indirect effects of unemployment. (JEL E24, H23, J64, J68)     

Who “They” Are Matters: Immigrant Stereotypes and Assessments of the Impact of Immigration

We investigate the relationship between stereotypes of immigrants and assessments of the impact of immigration on U.S. society. Our analysis exploits a split‐ballot survey of registered voters in Ohio, who were asked to evaluate both the characteristics of one of four randomly assigned immigrant groups and perceived impacts of immigration. We find that associations between impact assessments and stereotypes of Middle Eastern, Asian, and European immigrants are weak and fully attenuated by control covariates. By contrast, this relationship for Latin American immigrants is strong and robust to controls, particularly in the areas of unemployment, schools, and crime. Our findings suggest that public views of the impacts of immigration are strongly connected to beliefs about the traits of Latin American immigrants in particular.