共享单车用户机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

目前为止,共享单车用户的机会主义行为是共享单车能否发展的关键制约因素之一。基于此,尝试用演化博弈理论建立共享单车企业与用户间的演化博弈模型发掘用户的机会主义行为动因及利益相关者作用。研究表明:用户收益是其行为选择的决定性因素,用户机会主义行为收益大于规范行为收益是机会主义行为的产生根源;共享单车企业的激励约束可对用户行为起到调节作用,约束强度将对用户机会主义行为的程度产生负向影响。最后,针对演化博弈模型分析结果,提出了相应管理对策建议。     

隐私关注对移动商务用户采纳行为影响的实证分析

借助于移动通信技术如LBS(移动定位服务),移动服务商获取用户个人隐私信息将变得更为容易,引发了用户对隐私的严重关注,并将影响用户对移动商务的采纳行为,因此,有必要研究移动商务环境下用户隐私关注的构成以及对采纳行为的作用.采用结构方程模型(SEM)对收集的数据进行分析发现,隐私关注作为1个二阶因子由4个一阶维度构成,包括信息收集、不适当访问、信息错误、二次使用.隐私关注显著影响用户感知风险与信任,并通过二者间接影响采纳行为.鉴于此,移动服务商需采取有效措施来缓解用户隐私忧虑,促进其采纳行为,从而确保移动商务实施的成功.     

考虑行为外部性的多零售商销售努力激励

构建了制造商通过销售回馈与惩罚契约来对具有公平偏好的零售商群体的销售努力进行激励的计算实验模型。研究了零售商之间的行为外部性对激励效果产生的影响,并将EWA算法引入到制造商动态调整奖励与惩罚力度过程中以改善自身收益,为制造商在多周期激励过程中合理利用零售商间的行为外部性、合理制定奖惩力度提供理论依据。实验结果表明：制造商应采取措施尽量使零售商之间销售行为的外部性保持较低程度;在多周期激励过程中,制造商采用动态激励方式会优于保持奖惩力度不变的静态激励方式;动态调整奖惩力度会极大程度影响被奖励零售商群体的销售努力水平,但并不会影响被惩罚零售商销售努力水平的演化趋势。     

虚拟社区内不同群体的知识贡献行为:一项对比研究

中老年群体正在成为虚拟社区知识贡献的新主体,但不同群体在虚拟社区内的知识贡献行为究竟有何差异目前尚缺乏有针对性的研究。基于社会认知理论,本文设计了关于环境对虚拟社区知识贡献影响的假设模型,使用不同群体的数据对假设进行了验证。分析并解释了年轻人与年长者在机制上的差异,发现线上互动、线下互动作为环境,对知识贡献的影响机制不同;分析了不同群组构念均值得分的差异,发现年轻人在期望收益及自我效能上要强于年长者,但知识贡献差异不显著,说明年长者热心于知识贡献行为,且他们对收益的预期低于年轻人,这对于开发老年人力资源有很好的启示意义。本文比较了虚拟社区内不同用户群体行为的差异,有助于丰富在线知识管理的对比研究,为虚拟社区用户管理提供参考。     

社交网络个体活跃行为的大数据分析：从网络外部性的视角

用户是社交网络平台的基石，用户的活跃行为为平台创造内容、带来价值，因而用户活跃度一直是社交网络平台的关注重点。已有研究仅关注用户是否存在持续使用意向或行为，将持续使用行为定义为二元变量，未对持续使用行为细分，忽略了对用户活跃行为的研究。此外，社交网络中用户活跃行为之间有着不可忽视的相互影响，而受制于用户的关系网络数据难以获取，少有研究从该角度对社交网络中的用户行为进行研究。 将持续使用行为进一步细分为个体活跃和沉默行为，从网络外部性视角探讨同伴活跃行为对焦点个体活跃行为的影响以及个体网络规模与活跃行为的关系，并进一步探讨个体间关系强度和个体特征的调节作用。以超过百万用户的真实关系网络、个体特征信息和使用行为数据进行实证分析，通过Tobit模型验证上述关系。 研究结果表明，同伴活跃度和个体网络规模对个体活跃度有显著的正向作用，同时关系强度具有正向调节作用；个体特征在同伴活跃度与个体活跃度之间起调节作用，具体来说，女性用户和年轻用户受同伴活跃行为的影响更强。 从网络外部性的角度探讨用户活跃行为的影响因素，拓展了关于在线社交网络用户持续使用行为的研究和网络外部性测量方式，关注不同节点对于网络外部性贡献的差异性，对今后网络外部性的研究有一定的借鉴意义。基于中国数百万真实用户的数据集，结果更具普适性，同时反映出中国在线社交网络中用户的行为特征，可为今后的研究者提供参考。研究结果可以帮助社交网络平台的管理者更加了解用户活跃度的影响机理以及用户行为之间的内在联系，从而能以更科学合理的方式激发用户活跃度，保持社交网络平台的持续运营。     

电商平台与服务提供商的用户隐私信息管理策略研究

以移动商务环境下单个上游服务提供商和单个下游电商平台构成的两级供应链为对象,以用户隐私担忧为出发点,考虑了用户隐私担忧的异质性,构建了两阶段决策模型,研究了电商平台向服务商分享用户隐私的策略、服务商向消费者披露隐私利用信息的策略、服务商最优的隐私利用水平以及隐私保护投资强度,并对分散和集中决策型供应链的收益进行了对比分析。研究表明,电商平台与服务商分享和披露用户隐私信息的可能性均随着隐私不敏感用户比例的增加而增加;电商平台向服务商分享用户隐私可以有效改善供应链绩效,但服务商向用户披露其利用隐私信息的策略并不总是最优选择。最后,通过数值算例分析了隐私信息共享的集中和分散决策型供应链的收益情况,结果表明,前者的整体收益要大于后者。     

基于分位数Granger因果的网络情绪与股市收益关系研究

 行为金融学理论认为,股票市场的价格变动除受宏观基本因素影响外,还在很大程度上受众多个体投资者或噪音交易者行为左右。中国股票市场拥有庞大的个人投资者群体,且股民群体与网民群体之间具有高度耦合性,使用网络情绪等信息能够探索中国股市收益变动基本规律。        为揭示个体投资者行为对股市收益的影响,以个体投资者情绪为视角,以网络环境中个体投资者的情绪信息为切入点,检验投资者情绪与股市收益的关联关系,评估网络情绪信息价值。使用中文文本情感分析方法,从新浪微博文本中提取出网络情绪时间序列;分别运用均值Granger因果和分位数Granger因果检验方法,探讨网络情绪波动与股市收益之间是否存在因果关系;将股票市场发展阶段进行细致划分,研究不同市场阶段下网络情绪波动与股市收益之间的因果关系。        对沪深300指数收益进行实证研究,结果表明,尽管在均值框架下网络情绪波动与股市收益之间因果关系并不明显,但基于分位数Granger因果分析却发现两者在极端分位点区间处存在广泛且显著的因果关系。数据显示,在40个因果关系检验中,分位数Granger因果检验的因果关系发现了23个显著的因果关系,发现率为57.5%,远高于均值Granger因果检验的7.5%。此外,股市收益受到网络情绪波动影响的程度和方式在不同市场阶段下有所不同。        研究结果具有一定的理论意义和应用价值。在一些特定分位点区间网络情绪波动对股市收益存在显著因果关系影响,这为在特定条件下股市收益的可预测性提供了佐证。网络情绪能够预测股市收益的尾部(上尾或下尾)行为特征,可以为金融风险防范提供决策参考。研究结果为股票市场的定价、收益预测和波动率估计等相关研究提供了新的研究思路,也为网络情绪信息使用提供了新的方向。     

需求驱动的移动商务价值链组织的多阶博弈仿真

基于博弈论和扩散理论建立了多智能体模拟系统,实现了客户需求逆向驱动的价值链多阶博弈仿真,并进行模拟数据分析。以移动价值链为研究对象,建立考虑用户重复购买的BASS动力学模型,探讨移动市场中产品扩散过程;并基于实时需求数据驱动合作博弈模型,探讨了运营商和服务商的竞合关系;进一步结合进化博弈理论,描述了服务商动态联盟的演化过程。从价值链集成的角度,利用多阶博弈研究了价值链整体建模问题,并引入行业生命周期理论进行分析。通过一系列的虚拟实验,探讨了市场因素、服务商和运营商因素对收益的影响,为价值链管理决策提供依据。     

基于行为分析的社区化电商用户忠诚度提升机制研究

基于AISAS模型探究社区化电商用户购物行为路径,从行为视角构建社区化电商重要用户分类模型,从网络社区和购物商城两个维度考量用户忠诚度影响机制,并提出不同纬度用户忠诚度的提升机制,为有针对性实施客户关系管理提供借鉴。     

创业网络的动态均衡模型:算法及示例

在现有的研究中,对于创业网络的描述性论述居多,网络内部不同参与者的经营活动以及相应的实施效果的深入考察较少。本文建立了一个微分方程模型以描述创业网络的构建和发展问题,并且通过赋值计算对模型的平衡解及其稳定性进行了讨论。研究表明:创业网络的存在前提是系统拥有适量的约束条件;创业网络是一个不稳定系统,外部条件的变化将引起系统的较大调整;新创企业以及各个网络参与者在创业网络中的行动取决于它们可能从网络中获取的收益、成本,以及系统中存在的约束。     

Power,authority and legitimacy

Management, human resources, organization, control, leadership, etc., all seem to be just so many euphemisms for power, and this suggests a discourse of management and organization that calls things by their proper name. This paper on the contrary stresses the need to resolve the concept of ‘power’ itself into more differentiated notions, and proposes that clarification may be derived from distinctions once explicit in the vocabulary of Classical antiquity, but lost in modern European languages. It argues that nothing but confusion in thinking about organizations, management and legitimation can result from the failure to recognize that the phenomena this vocabulary identifies and distinguishes are irreducibly different.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.