随机需求下考虑零售商风险偏好的生鲜农产品最优订货策略

针对生鲜农产品销售期内存在的期初期末销售量大而期中销售量小的现象,将零售商单销售期划分为三阶段;考虑顾客到达服从强度随机的非齐次Poisson过程,单位顾客购买量受产品价格和新鲜度影响;引入风险偏爱系数表征零售商的风险偏爱程度,着重分析产品新鲜度衰变系数和零售商风险偏爱系数对订货决策的影响,给出不同风险偏爱系数零售商的最优订货策略.结论表明,考虑零售商风险偏好和新鲜度衰变速率影响的订货策略,更能体现生鲜农产品的特性.最后用数值算例描述了有关结论.     

城郊失地农民的家庭资产选择及其影响因素

城郊失地农民家庭资产增长迅速,其选择及影响因素越来越受到学者们的关注。通过对400名城郊失地农民的深入调查研究发现,城郊失地农民在家庭资产选择上表现出"求稳"和"冒险"并存的特点,生产经营和银行存款仍然是失地农民的主要投资方式,但股票和彩票投资参与占比远高于城市居民;投资风险偏好越高(即越冒险),风险投资参与占比越高;金融知识越丰富,稳定投资、风险投资和生产投资占比越高;受教育程度越高,稳定投资和风险投资占比越高;补偿金额越高,风险投资占比越高;年龄越大越倾向稳定投资,越不愿进行风险投资和生产投资;家庭人口越多,风险投资占比越多,稳定投资占比越少。     

基于制造商网络渠道选择的双渠道供应链定价 与服务决策研究

本文考虑由线下零售商实体销售与制造商网络销售构成的网络直销,以及由线下零售商实体销售与线上零售商网络销售构成的网络分销两种制造商双渠道模式,研究“搭便车”行为下制造商模式选择和供应链最优定价与服务决策。研究发现:制造商的渠道选择策略与“搭便车”行为程度、消费者偏好网络渠道程度、价格敏感系数等有关。尤其当消费者受到的服务且对价格的敏感性相同时,制造商会选择网络直销双渠道模式。进一步分析消费者“搭便车”行为和网络渠道偏好对制造商渠道选择和定价决策影响发现,制造商在消费者偏好网络渠道程度比较低时应选择网络分销双渠道模式,而当消费者网络渠道偏好和“搭便车”行为程度都比较高时,制造商应选择网络直销双渠道模式。消费者网络渠道偏好或“搭便车”行为程度越大,两种模式下批发价格应设置的更低。网络直销渠道模式下“搭便车”行为程度越大,网络渠道销售价格应设置的更低,而消费者网络渠道偏好程度越大,网络渠道销售价格应设置得更高。     

性别异质性与企业决策:文化视角下的对比研究

高阶理论认为,男性和女性的领导风格和决策偏好存在显著差异;女企业家经营稳健、不过度自信,更重视员工发展。然而,这一假设忽略了性别文化对个性塑造的影响。本文探讨两性在避险意识、竞争意识和涉他偏好上的差异,并重点考察性别角色认知对上述差异的调节作用。本文通过宏观和微观两个层面的数据,构建了性别平等指数,并依据世界银行企业调查数据进行实证研究。结论如下:(1)整体而言,拥有女性投资者的企业偏好差异化战略,更乐于提供员工培训,但采取创新决策的可能性要低于投资者均为男性的企业。(2)文化因素对两性差异存在调节作用。在性别平等程度较低的情境中,女性投资人并没有体现出强烈的涉他偏好和竞争回避意识。(3)性别平等是多维度概念,女性社会角色认知既受家庭环境的影响,也受制度环境的影响。传统性别角色定位下的女性领导人为克服偏见和障碍,而不能充分发挥自身性格特质。本研究既补充和完善了领导力理论,又对改善企业经营绩效具有启示意义。     

跳槽，你准备好了吗

茫茫职场中,跳槽几乎是不可回避的过程。相对于男性,女性经理人对跳槽似乎有些偏爱。有调查显示,有过1～2次跳槽经历的女性比例为45%,比男性高出14%。另外一组数据表明, 2004年上半年跳槽成功的中层女白领中,实现薪资大幅提升的达到38%,比同阶层的男性白领高出5 个百分点。女性经理人,真的“跳高”了么?她们是怎样选择和面对跳槽的?     

民营上市公司终极股东控制与资本结构决策

以2005年中国269家民营上市公司为样本,实证检验了资本结构决策中存在的终极股东代理问题.研究发现,终极股东的控制权、制衡度和现金流权与受控公司资产负债率显著负相关.这表明,在受控民营上市公司资本结构决策中,终极股东控制权比例和制衡度越高,股权融资给终极股东带来的控制权稀释风险越低,终极股东偏好股权融资;终极股东现金流权比例越低,终级股东承担的债务破产风险越小,终极股东偏好债务融资.研究结论一方面支持资本结构具有公司治理效应,另一方面证实了终极股东在资本结构决策中确实存在主动规避治理效应的动机和行为.     

经营期望差距影响公司股价崩盘风险吗?

本文以中国沪、深上市公司为对象,研究了经营期望差距如何影响股价崩盘风险,以及上述影响在不同情境(市场化程度和政治关联)下的差异。结果表明,经营期望落差会促使管理层采取冒险活动与信息操控行为,增大了股价崩盘风险,且在两类冒险活动中,经营期望落差通过违规性冒险投机活动对股价崩盘风险的影响相对更大。经营期望落差作用的发挥会受市场化程度与政治关联的制约,市场化程度与政治关联负向调节经营期望落差对股价崩盘风险的影响。企业管理层在面临经营期望顺差时并没有明显的采纳或回避冒险决策的动机,经营期望顺差对股价崩盘风险没有显著的影响。     

职场女性的“生”与“升”

女性在现代职场上的重要性不容小觑.攻坚克难时,她们可以和男性一样身先士卒骁勇善战;安抚客户时,她们往往比男性更会赔笑卖萌耐心劝导. 但是,女性在事业上有时还面临比男性更艰难的抉择：工作积累了一定经验,有上升的空间和实力时,恰好到了适龄生子的年岁,是“生”还是“升”？生育之后是转而做个相夫教子的好妈妈,还是继续火拼晋升成为傲视江湖的职场女汉子？职场女性往往会有不同的选择. 职场辣妈 打开电视机,不难发现涉及到育儿问题的生活剧中,都不约而同地选择了那些拼劲十足的“辣妈”作为主角.     

从行为金融视角看管理者过度自信对企业决策的影响

<正>过度自信是人们普遍表现出的一种经常性心理偏好,而企业管理者往往比一般人表现出更强的过度自信。管理者过度自信既是其自身效应最大化的需要,也是市场竞争选择的结果,同时又受到企业决策环境和治理环境的影响。管理者过度自信的行为偏差会影响企业融资、投资、并购等方面的决策,进而会对企业价值造成影响。     

信息系统外包决策的AHP/PROMETHEE方法

针对信息系统外包项目优选这一重要问题,在已有方法的基础上,结合层次分析法与偏好顺序结构评估法,提出了一种基于这两种方法相结合的信息系统外包项目选择决策方法。以管理、战略、技术、经济、质量与风险6项因素作为评价准则,用层次分析法确定信息系统外包项目选择问题的层次结构与评价准则的权重,用偏好顺序结构评估法确定信息系统外包项目的排序,并通过算例说明该方法的有效性。     

关系营销中客户回报计划对客户品牌选择行为的影响研究

本研究在考虑客户间异质偏好性的基础上,利用一组客户的纵贯交易数据建立消费者离散选择模型研究了回报计划对客户个体层面品牌选择行为的影响,并利用策略实验及潜分层模型对相关问题进行了系统深入的分析。结果表明,回报计划可以有效提升客户的品牌选择购买概率,是一种有效的关系营销策略;策略实验分析得到,竞争的环境下,对零售超市而言其最优决策策略不仅是实施回报计划,而且要努力争取客户成为自己回报计划的会员;此外,通过潜分层模型评估发现客户回报计划仅会对一类特定客户具有明显的刺激作用。最后讨论了结论对企业营销管理实践的意义。     

Every Choice Function Is Backwards‐Induction Rationalizable

A choice function is backwards‐induction rationalizable if there exists a finite perfect‐information extensive‐form game such that for each subset of alternatives, the backwards‐induction outcome of the restriction of the game to that subset of alternatives coincides with the choice from that subset. We prove that every choice function is backwards‐induction rationalizable.     

Consumer's Attitude and Retailers' Images in Creating Store Choice. A Study of Two Different Sides of the Same Story

The determinants of store choice on the part of the consumer are complex. Our study indicates that consumers find the issues relevant to store choice as lacking in quality and certainly not congruent nor tangential to the retail marketing concept. As our model shows, perceptions are developed through stimuli that are created by the retail environment both internal and external. If these were the only issues retailers had to deal with, their challenge in understanding consumer store choice behavior would be formidable. Add to those dimensions the perceptions that are formed through the consumer's own psychological, physiological and behavioral attributes and the complexities of the challenge can seem to be insurmountable. The complexity of the situation increases exponentially when, as our research seems to indicate, the psychological and behavioral components can be compounded by such little understood dimensions as ambivalence and vicarious sociality. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Retailers need to benefit themselves by reaching out the broad resources of research to effectively develop the resource information necessary to successfully position themselves relative to their consumers expectations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models

This paper considers random coefficients binary choice models. The main goal is to estimate the density of the random coefficients nonparametrically. This is an ill‐posed inverse problem characterized by an integral transform. A new density estimator for the random coefficients is developed, utilizing Fourier–Laplace series on spheres. This approach offers a clear insight on the identification problem. More importantly, it leads to a closed form estimator formula that yields a simple plug‐in procedure requiring no numerical optimization. The new estimator, therefore, is easy to implement in empirical applications, while being flexible about the treatment of unobserved heterogeneity. Extensions including treatments of nonrandom coefficients and models with endogeneity are discussed.     

Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Unobserved Heterogeneity

We adapt the expectation–maximization algorithm to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity into conditional choice probability (CCP) estimators of dynamic discrete choice problems. The unobserved heterogeneity can be time‐invariant or follow a Markov chain. By developing a class of problems where the difference in future value terms depends on a few conditional choice probabilities, we extend the class of dynamic optimization problems where CCP estimators provide a computationally cheap alternative to full solution methods. Monte Carlo results confirm that our algorithms perform quite well, both in terms of computational time and in the precision of the parameter estimates.     

Social Optimal Location of Facilities with Fixed Servers,Stochastic Demand,and Congestion

We consider two capacity choice scenarios for the optimal location of facilities with fixed servers, stochastic demand, and congestion. Motivating applications include virtual call centers, consisting of geographically dispersed centers, walk‐in health clinics, motor vehicle inspection stations, automobile emissions testing stations, and internal service systems. The choice of locations for such facilities influences both the travel cost and waiting times of users. In contrast to most previous research, we explicitly embed both customer travel/connection and delay costs in the objective function and solve the location–allocation problem and choose facility capacities simultaneously. The choice of capacity for a facility that is viewed as a queueing system with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times could mean choosing a service rate for the servers (Scenario 1) or choosing the number of servers (Scenario 2). We express the optimal service rate in closed form in Scenario 1 and the (asymptotically) optimal number of servers in closed form in Scenario 2. This allows us to eliminate both the number of servers and the service rates from the optimization problems, leading to tractable mixed‐integer nonlinear programs. Our computational results show that both problems can be solved efficiently using a Lagrangian relaxation optimization procedure.     

Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables

In this paper, we consider identification and estimation in panel data discrete choice models when the explanatory variable set includes strictly exogenous variables, lags of the endogenous dependent variable as well as unobservable individual‐specific effects. For the binary logit model with the dependent variable lagged only once, Chamberlain (1993) gave conditions under which the model is not identified. We present a stronger set of conditions under which the parameters of the model are identified. The identification result suggests estimators of the model, and we show that these are consistent and asymptotically normal, although their rate of convergence is slower than the inverse of the square root of the sample size. We also consider identification in the semiparametric case where the logit assumption is relaxed. We propose an estimator in the spirit of the conditional maximum score estimator (Manski (1987)) and we show that it is consistent. In addition, we discuss an extension of the identification result to multinomial discrete choice models, and to the case where the dependent variable is lagged twice. Finally, we present some Monte Carlo evidence on the small sample performance of the proposed estimators for the binary response model.     

组织间模仿、环境不确定性与区位选择:以中国企业对美国直接投资为例

从组织间模仿视角出发,考察组织环境中的其他企业以往行为对企业区位选择的影响。基于中国企业对美国直接投资数据的实证研究发现,模仿是中国企业对美国直接投资区位选择的重要影响因素,企业的区位选择会受到同行业中国企业和其他行业中国企业以往选择的影响。并且,同行业企业的影响要大于其他行业企业,即企业更倾向于模仿与自身相似企业的行为。另外,环境不确定性程度也会对企业的模仿行为起到调节作用,环境不确定性的提升会增大其他企业以往行为对当前企业区位选择的影响。     

我国上市公司可转债融资选择的实证分析

近年来发行可转债已成为上市公司筹集外部资本的重要融资工具之一。利用Logis- tic回归分析方法检验了公司财务杠杆、成长性、盈利能力、股权结构、公司规模、募集资金规模及行业因素同上市公司在可转债与增发A股选择倾向之间的关系。实证结果发现,可转债融资选择倾向与财务杠杆呈显著负相关,与公司规模呈显著正相关,与公司盈利能力和募集资金规模呈负相关,但显著性水平较低,与公司成长性、第一大股东持股比例以及行业因素无显著相关性。     

The Effect of School Choice on Participants: Evidence from Randomized Lotteries

School choice has become an increasingly prominent strategy for enhancing academic achievement. To evaluate the impact on participants, we exploit randomized lotteries that determine high school admission in the Chicago Public Schools. Compared to those students who lose lotteries, students who win attend high schools that are better in a number of dimensions, including peer achievement and attainment levels. Nonetheless, we find little evidence that winning a lottery provides any systematic benefit across a wide variety of traditional academic measures. Lottery winners do, however, experience improvements on a subset of nontraditional outcome measures, such as self‐reported disciplinary incidents and arrest rates.