关系、保险购买与保险赔付

基于中国家庭金融调查2011年数据,研究了“关系”对家庭商业保险购买及保险赔付的影响.利用构建的家庭关系指标,研究发现:1)关系每增加1％,家庭购买商业保险的概率大约增加0.3％,家庭获得保险赔付的概率增加0.06％;2)不同维度的关系子指标对家庭购买商业保险的影响不同;3)关系可以显著提高家庭购买寿险、财产险的概率,但是对养老险、健康险没有显著影响;4)关系可以通过社会互动影响家庭购买保险和获得保险赔付的概率.     

运营中断风险下企业营业中断保险购买策略研究

基于购买主体和承保主体双视角，对运营中断风险下制造商购买策略、零售商购买策略、联合购买策略和不购买策略4种情景进行对比分析，探寻营业中断保险的购买决策边界、风险转移效果、价值实现过程及影响机理。研究结果表明：制造商购买策略和联合购买策略均能有效转移运营中断风险，其转移效果由中断惩罚系数、零售商商誉损失和零售商融资成本损失决定；不同购买策略在供应链上的保险价值增值效应不同；保险公司在综合考虑保费率、保额和投资收益率的基础上制定营业中断保险定价决策，实现投资收益最大化。将供应链合作和营业中断保险引入企业风险管控，能促成供应链合作，实现多方共赢。     

保险政策与中国式减贫:经验、困局与路径优化

作为助力脱贫攻坚的主要方式,医疗保险和农业保险在防止因病致(返)贫、因灾致(返)贫方面发挥了重要作用,但保险扶贫的实践发展与政策预期尚存有较大差距。本文针对保险扶贫政策实施过程中目标不精准、需求不满足与贫困人口收入约束之间的困局,通过构建贫困人口潜在保险需求转换成有效需求的理论分析框架,利用2000～2011年先后开展的5期"中国家庭健康与营养调查"(CHNS)微观数据,实证检验了倾斜性保险扶贫政策在减贫实践中的作用。研究发现,以适当财政补贴个人缴费、降低起付线、放宽封顶线、提升报销比例为核心的"倾斜性保险扶贫政策",能够显著激发贫困户医疗保险的需求,对其收入和支出等福利具有显著正向影响,从而起到积极的减贫效果。进一步地,针对扶贫攻坚工作中发现存在一边脱贫、一边返贫的新现象,借助以提升保费补贴程度和住院报销比例等为重点的倾斜性保险扶贫政策,对帮助脱贫和防止返贫具有积极的影响,这为充分发挥保险政策扶贫作用提供了优化路径和发展方向。     

交易信用保险对供应商提供融资的激励作用

交易信用作为一种短期融资模式,可以降低零售商的资金短缺对供应链运营的影响,但是由于市场需求的不确定性,提供交易信用的供应商会面临一定的信用风险。本文假设供应商是风险厌恶的,比较了无保险、全额保险和共同保险下供应商向零售商提供的最优交易信用数量、期望效用及保费。研究表明,有保险合同下供应商向零售商提供的交易信用数量会高于无保险时供应商向零售商提供的交易信用数量;并且随着保险公司赔付比例的增加,共同保险下供应商向零售商提供的交易信用数量会逐渐增加。此外,当供应商的风险厌恶程度很高时购买全额保险,否则购买共同保险,并且当风险厌恶程度越低时要求保险公司的赔付比例越低是供应商的最佳选择。     

中国网络保险发展的现状及对中国保险业的影响

正一、中国网络保险现状和市场规模根据艾瑞咨询数据,2012年中国保险电子商务市场保费收入39.6亿,相对2011年增长123.8%,占中国保险市场整体保费收入的0.26%。虽然2011-2012年中国保险业整体保费收入呈现放缓状态,但是中国网络保险和电子商务市场却出现较快发展,这主要得益于过去几年,互联网和移动支付的普及,以及越来越多的消费者亲生体验网上购物。     

家庭投资理财中配置分红保险的几大优势

分红保险在经历了国内资本市场持续低迷和异常火爆的水火两重天的考验后,其自身独有的特质让它在家庭投资理财活动中所发挥的作用得到了充分的彰显,越来越受到了普通家庭和已经走上了富裕生活道路的有钱人家庭的喜爱。分红保险也必将随着时间的推移日益得到认可,为中国老百姓家庭的理财活动提供更多的帮助。     

面向关键设备维修服务的PBC合同与营业中断险集成设计模型及分析

高可用度运行是关键设备系统运营企业产生收益的根本保障。为了减小因小概率突发故障造成的严重收益损失以及可能地继发资金流风险,既要设计合理的服务合同增强对服务供应商的激励,又要同时考虑收益损失减缓策略。基于性能合同（PBC）是根据服务结果给予补偿的新兴激励合同,而购买营业中断保险（BI）是减缓关键设备故障继发资金流风险的有效策略。本文以委托-代理理论为建模框架,研究BI保险与PBC合同集成设计模型,探讨购买保险与否两种情景下的PBC合同最优设计和供应商的最优服务能力决策,分析BI保险决策对PBC合同设计方案的影响规律,调查运营商购买BI保险的决策条件。该成果是维修服务运作与金融保险领域跨界研究的首次尝试,其理论分析结果有助于为关键设备运营企业跨部门决策提供指导。     

信贷约束下的农业保险需求高估问题：理论解释与经验证据

农业保险有效需求是中国农业保险可持续发展的基石。面对农村金融市场发育滞后的现状,信贷约束在一定程度上限制了农户对农业保险的支付能力,削弱了农业保险的实际需求,进而降低了每年财政资金补贴保费的使用效率。本文以旱灾为例,构建农户跨期经营决策模型,利用北京大学中国农业政策研究中心在河南、河北两个农业大省9个县开展的为期15年跟踪调查数据,通过显示性偏好方法探讨了农村广泛存在的信贷约束对农业保险需求的影响。结果表明：（1）忽视信贷约束使得农业保险的真实需求被严重高估;（2）在不完善的农村信贷市场中,政府的保费补贴政策对农业保险购买意愿拉动作用有限,尤其难以达到无信贷约束下的需求水平,导致财政补贴农业的效率降低。换句话说,进一步完善农村信贷市场以激发农业保险需求,有助于提升财政支持农业保险市场发展的效率。     

西北地区保险市场发展的比较分析

当前,西部保险业在保障经济正常运行、健全社会突发事件处理机制、降低社会管理风险、化解社会矛盾中,发挥着日益重要的作用,已经形成了良好的发展格局。认真分析西部地区保险业发展的各种有利因素和不利因素,对今后西部地区保险业的发展具有重要意义。本文主要从保险主体、保费收入规模、保险密度和保险深度、保险业务结构、保险产品创新能力五方面对西部保险市场发展进行了比较分析。     

非携带式医保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应研究

本文以新型农村合作医疗保险为例研究了非携带式医保对农村劳动力流动产生的锁定效应。新农合旨在为农村户籍人口提供医疗方面的保障,但其现行的制度安排却使其具有较强的非携带特征,从而限制了参保人的自由流动。本文运用中国家庭金融调查个人层面的微观数据,采用Probit模型和最大似然估计(MLE),以临近社区(村)和临近县(区)的平均参合率为工具变量,对新农合的锁定效应进行了研究。本文发现,参加新农合使农村留守劳动力转移到城镇的概率降低了34.7%,使农村劳动力转移到本乡镇以外的概率降低了41.9%。对中老年人的锁定效应高于青年人。此外,参加新农合使本地农民工转移到本乡镇以外的概率降低了37.1%。因此,新农合的非携带特征不利于劳动力的大范围自由流动。     

Multiple Health Risk Perception and Information Processing Among African Americans and Whites Living in Poverty

We investigated the risk‐information‐processing behaviors of people living at or near the poverty line. Because significant gaps in health and communication exist among high‐ and low‐income groups, increasing the information seeking and knowledge of poor individuals may help them better understand risks to their health and increase their engagement in health‐protective behaviors. Most earlier studies assessed only a single health risk selected by the researcher, whereas we listed 10 health risks and allowed the respondents to identify the one that they worried about most but took little action to prevent. Using this risk, we tested one pathway inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model to examine predictors of information insufficiency and of systematic processing and extended this pathway to include health‐protective action. A phone survey was conducted of African Americans and whites living in the southern United States with an annual income of ≤$35,000 (N= 431). The results supported the model pathway: worry partially mediated the relationship between perceived risk and information insufficiency, which, in turn, increased systematic processing. In addition, systematic processing increased health‐protective action. Compared with whites and better educated respondents, African Americans and respondents with little education had significantly higher levels of information insufficiency but higher levels of systematic processing and health‐protective action. That systematic processing and knowledge influenced health behavior suggests a potential strategy for reducing health disparities.     

Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects

Families, primarily female‐headed minority households with children, living in high‐poverty public housing projects in five U.S. cities were offered housing vouchers by lottery in the Moving to Opportunity program. Four to seven years after random assignment, families offered vouchers lived in safer neighborhoods that had lower poverty rates than those of the control group not offered vouchers. We find no significant overall effects of this intervention on adult economic self‐sufficiency or physical health. Mental health benefits of the voucher offers for adults and for female youth were substantial. Beneficial effects for female youth on education, risky behavior, and physical health were offset by adverse effects for male youth. For outcomes that exhibit significant treatment effects, we find, using variation in treatment intensity across voucher types and cities, that the relationship between neighborhood poverty rate and outcomes is approximately linear.     

生命周期视角下的金字塔底层创新策略选择:一个多案例研究

金字塔底层(BoP)群体意指与全球化经济相脱离、未能分享经济成长成果的低收入群体,群体中蕴含着大量未被运用的人力资源和其他资本。如果BoP群体中的这些资源能够被企业有效利用,一方面可以帮助BoP群体提高收入,摆脱贫困,另一方面可以帮助企业获得难以模仿的资源优势和效率优势。由于BoP群体在能力特征、认知特征及所处的外部环境方面与成熟经济中的其他群体有很大区别,企业以BoP群体作为资源提供者时会面临一些特定的挑战。这些挑战与企业所处的生命周期阶段相关,不同发展阶段的企业所关注的商业挑战重点不同,从而导致企业在不同的发展阶段需要采用不同的创新策略。因此,本文运用多案例研究方法对BoP群体作为资源提供者的企业进行研究,分析其在不同发展阶段面临的商业挑战,并针对不同商业挑战制定出相应的创新策略,帮助开展BoP群体作为资源提供者的商业活动,以真正解决贫困问题。     

A Reliability‐Based Capability Approach

This article proposes a rigorous mathematical approach, named a reliability‐based capability approach (RCA), to quantify the societal impact of a hazard. The starting point of the RCA is a capability approach in which capabilities refer to the genuine opportunities open to individuals to achieve valuable doings and beings (such as being mobile and being sheltered) called functionings. Capabilities depend on what individuals have and what they can do with what they have. The article develops probabilistic predictive models that relate the value of each functioning to a set of easily predictable or measurable quantities (regressors) in the aftermath of a hazard. The predicted values of selected functionings for an individual collectively determine the impact of a hazard on his/her state of well‐being. The proposed RCA integrates the predictive models of functionings into a system reliability problem to determine the probability that the state of well‐being is acceptable, tolerable, or intolerable. Importance measures are defined to quantify the contribution of each functioning to the state of well‐being. The information from the importance measures can inform decisions on optimal allocation of limited resources for risk mitigation and management.     

Flood Risk Management: Exploring the Impacts of the Community Rating System Program on Poverty and Income Inequality

Flooding remains a major problem for the United States, causing numerous deaths and damaging countless properties. To reduce the impact of flooding on communities, the U.S. government established the Community Rating System (CRS) in 1990 to reduce flood damages by incentivizing communities to engage in flood risk management initiatives that surpass those required by the National Flood Insurance Program. In return, communities enjoy discounted flood insurance premiums. Despite the fact that the CRS raises concerns about the potential for unevenly distributed impacts across different income groups, no study has examined the equity implications of the CRS. This study thus investigates the possibility of unintended consequences of the CRS by answering the question: What is the effect of the CRS on poverty and income inequality? Understanding the impacts of the CRS on poverty and income inequality is useful in fully assessing the unintended consequences of the CRS. The study estimates four fixed‐effects regression models using a panel data set of neighborhood‐level observations from 1970 to 2010. The results indicate that median incomes are lower in CRS communities, but rise in floodplains. Also, the CRS attracts poor residents, but relocates them away from floodplains. Additionally, the CRS attracts top earners, including in floodplains. Finally, the CRS encourages income inequality, but discourages income inequality in floodplains. A better understanding of these unintended consequences of the CRS on poverty and income inequality can help to improve the design and performance of the CRS and, ultimately, increase community resilience to flood disasters.     

Policy Goals for Health and Safety

Health management and safety regulation are separate disciplines but share the aim to extend expectancy of life in good health. The need to improve cost-effectiveness calls for their co-ordinated management according to a unified rationale. Three guiding principles of accountability, demonstrable net benefit and a uniform measure of performance, have been laid out in Canada by the Joint Committee on Health and Safety. They call for open accounting in terms of (health-related quality-adjusted) life expectancy. The principles are utilitarian in format but, it is argued, inequity is naturally diminished in the process of optimizing cost-effectiveness through maximum marginal returns. Comments are made on practical implementation. The need for public consent in practice calls for two additional principles reflecting fair procedure and sovereignty of the citizens. It is concluded that public health and safety measures should be surveyed, documented for cost-effectiveness and prioritized for improvement.     

Re-conceptualising talent management and development within the context of the low paid

Those working in organisations have choices to make associated with not only the goods and services they produce but also their wider social and economic impact. The number of employees in low-skilled/low-paid jobs and the high proportion of companies adopting business strategies based on low-specification goods and services are a concern for many developed and developing economies. Addressing this problem is not traditionally the concern of Human Resource Development; however, we argue that through exploring the role that a wider, more balanced approach to Sustainable Talent Management and Development (S-TMD) may play within the context of the low skilled in the UK provides a crucial link to enhancing an organisation’s performance and responsibility to society. At the heart of this approach lies a shift to appreciate the collective endeavour of work practices, an enhanced role for stakeholders and identification of, and participation in skills ecosystems to support sustainable development. The paper identifies the opportunity for S-TMD to move from a predominantly individualist, managerial and unitarist understanding to one grounded in the value of tacit and embedded development processes undertaken to reflect a pluralist, multi-voiced approach to understanding of a skills ecosystem.     

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality

We derive the asymptotic sampling distribution of various estimators frequently used to order distributions in terms of poverty, welfare, and inequality. This includes estimators of most of the poverty indices currently in use, as well as estimators of the curves used to infer stochastic dominance of any order. These curves can be used to determine whether poverty, inequality, or social welfare is greater in one distribution than in another for general classes of indices and for ranges of possible poverty lines. We also derive the sampling distribution of the maximal poverty lines up to which we may confidently assert that poverty is greater in one distribution than in another. The sampling distribution of convenient dual estimators for the measurement of poverty is also established. The statistical results are established for deterministic or stochastic poverty lines as well as for paired or independent samples of incomes. Our results are briefly illustrated using data for four countries drawn from the Luxembourg Income Study data bases.     

贫困减少与经济增长和收入不平等的关系研究——基于时序数据

基于时间序列分析方法,以1981年～2004年贫困发生率、基尼系数和农村人均纯收入等相关指标,从时序雏度考察贫困人口的变动与经济增长和收入不平等的长期均衡关系和相互作用机制.Johansen协整检验结果表明,3个变量之间存在着一定的长期协整性:格兰杰因果检验发现,农村人均纯收入和基尼系数能够预测贫困发生率的变化,反之不能成立;误差修正模型显示,贫困发生率对农村人均纯收入的弹性系数为正,对基尼系数的弹性系数为负.且前者大于后者.由此认为,农村人均纯收入的提高是促进贫困减少的影响因素,收入不平等在一定程度上阻碍了贫困减少,经济增长对贫困减少的积极效应大于收入不平等对贫困减少的消极效应.因此,在目前中国经济增长时期,确保农民收入大幅度增加、努力缓解收入差距是贫困减少的有效途径.     

乡村农户贫困状态特征因子筛选与分析框架：兼论我国乡村振兴路径选择

本文构建了刻画乡村农户贫困状态的特征因子的提取算法和分析框架，旨在实现和帮助完善家庭农场的持续发展，尤其是由贫困农户组成或参与的家庭农场在发展需要的融资方面的乡村信用评估，推动有效地制订对应政策和落地方案，巩固脱贫攻坚成果和防止返贫。本文的最大亮点是以“分类与回归树”(CART)分析和“吉布斯抽样”(Gibbs Sampling)的人工智能算法为工具，对乡村农户贫困状态的特征因子提取建立了对应的框架和分析流程。基于国内某地区乡村建档立卡数据库的31,116个样本，实证研究筛选出12个刻画乡村农户贫困状态高度关联的特征因子，并进一步对特征因子的有效性进行了ROC曲线和AUC测试。结果表明以特征因子分析框架为基础，建设配套的乡村信用评估体系是支持乡村振兴的可持续性最佳解决途径之一，除了能够为乡村贫困户获得持续工作的基本技能或生产环境的改善提升上得到持续性的融资支持提供评估依据和数据支持，也能为乡村和城镇“传帮带”等生产和商务平台的建立提供可持续的基础性数据和信用分析的动态支持。