考虑碳价下限的燃煤发电碳减排投资及其政策分析

燃煤发电是电力供应保障的重要基础,也是二氧化碳排放的主要来源之一。论文针对碳排放权价格（碳价）、燃煤发电商上网电量以及碳减排设施的单位运维成本都随机波动的情况,构建考虑碳价下限的燃煤发电商碳减排投资实物期权模型,在模型求解基础上,针对某60万千瓦燃煤发电机组,通过数值仿真方法,考察碳价下限对碳减排预期投资时间的影响,并探讨碳价初值、碳减排单位运维成本初值如何影响碳价下限政策的有效性,比较碳价下限与直接投资补贴政策的优劣,分析结果表明：（1）碳价下限政策可能会激励燃煤发电商提早进行碳减排投资,但提高碳价下限不一定能降低碳减排投资阈值;（2）碳价下限政策实施的有效区域由碳价初值、碳减排单位运维成本初值等参数有关,在该有效区域内,通过碳价下限的调整可调节碳减排投资的预期时间;（3）相对于直接投资补贴政策,碳价下限能显著节省补贴资金。     

碳中和视角下奖惩机制对逆向供应链碳减排与回收价格的影响

近年来,促进废弃电器电子产品回收行业健康发展,减少碳排放助力实现碳中和目标受到各界的重点关注。本文针对制造商、电商平台、第三方回收商等多个主体构成的逆向回收供应链,探讨碳限额政策与政府补贴奖惩机制并行下对逆向供应链废弃电器电子产品的回收量、回收价格、碳排放量、碳减排努力的影响,构建四种不同回收模式利润模型,得到不同回收模式下的最优回收价格和减排率,分析碳限额、消费者回收渠道偏好、拆解成本、碳交易价格、产品再制造比率对回收价格和碳排放量的影响。结果表明:消费者渠道偏好会影响回收价格和制造商碳减排率;针对污染型产品,政府应采取高的碳价格对制造商进行惩罚;此外政府政策是把双刃剑,政府补贴既可以提高企业碳减排率,同时也增加了逆向供应链总的碳排放量,且政府补贴对双渠道回收模式有更明显的减排作用。     

考虑收益下限的火力发电商碳减排投资策略

假定火力发电商的上网电量和二氧化碳排放权价格(碳价)服从几何布朗运动,针对无营运成本和有营运成本两种情况分别构建收益下限政策下的发电商碳减排投资实物期权模型,在求解模型的基础上讨论了最优的收益下限及其实施期限.模型的实证性算例分析结果表明:1)收益下限政策可激励发电商进行碳减排投资,但最优的实施期限可能低于设施的运行年限; 2)发电商碳减排投资阈值最低点对应的收益下限,即为最优的收益下限; 3)在无营运成本情况下收益下限相对于直接补贴政策可节省资金,但在有营运成本情况下是否节省资金与电力需求等因素有关.     

碳交易机制下供应链CCS投资时机研究

在碳交易机制下,碳价格不确定性对发电商的碳捕获与封存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)投资时机具有重要影响。基于实物期权理论,考虑碳价格不确定性及CCS投资成本递减情况下CCS投资的期权价值,建立集碳捕获-运输-封存于一体的CCS投资时机决策基本模型。在此基础上,进一步构建考虑供应链内发电商与CCS运营商合作的CCS投资博弈模型,分析发电商与CCS运营商在收益转移比例与投资时机之间进行决策的均衡条件。基于上述模型,结合数值算例进一步分析了CCS投资时机的影响因素。结果表明:碳价格波动率、政府对CCS投资补贴系数、CCS技术学习效应以及供应链内部企业间的收益转移比例等都将对CCS投资门槛产生影响,供应链企业应综合考虑各因素的影响,科学选择投资时机与收益转移比例,以实现CO2减排的同时保证各方的经济利益,保障供应链的协调运行与CCS投资优化。     

碳配额交易背景下双渠道供应链减排决策研究

在碳配额交易政策实施与电子商务快速发展背景下,本研究考虑碳配额约束、碳交易价格、消费者低碳偏好和渠道偏好,构建了单一线下渠道减排、双渠道不减排和双渠道减排决策模型。本研究进一步以企业利润最大化为目标,分别求解得到渠道定价、减排努力程度和渠道选择最优决策。研究发现,双渠道供应链中,消费者低碳偏好对减排决策及供应链各主体利润有正向影响;碳配额对碳减排率有线性正向影响;碳配额交易价格对碳减排率影响与单位产品初始碳配额大小有关,随着碳交易价格增加碳减排率先增加后降低;零售商利润不受碳配额交易政策影响;当渠道偏好程度和低碳偏好程度在某一范围时,制造商开辟线上渠道或进行碳减排投资能够获得更多利润。     

双寡头电力市场垂直合作减排的随机微分对策模型

考虑单电网公司与双发电商所组成的渠道结构,构建了发电商投资减排、电网公司投资消纳的优势互补的异质型垂直合作减排的随机微分对策模型,先后考察并比较了分散决策和集成决策下的反馈均衡结果。在此基础上,讨论了利润共享契约下系统增量利润的分配问题。研究表明：对于分散决策,电网公司选择性承担发电商的减排费用;两种决策下的发电商减排和电网公司购电价格以及分散决策下的减排补贴与发电商之间的减排竞争强度相关;在一定条件和范围内,合作博弈有利于提高电网公司购电电价,同时为此所带来的风险增大。     

价格与技术不确定条件下的发电商碳捕获投资模型及分析

碳捕获与储存技术是降低碳排放的有效方法之一。论文针对碳价和碳捕获技术不确定的情况,构建双重不确定条件下的碳捕获技术投资模型,并在模型求解基础上进行了数值仿真分析,其分析结果表明:1)碳价的波动性将延迟碳捕获技术投资,若碳价的波动性足够大,发电商会选择不投资;2)碳捕获技术进步也将延迟投资,但政策性补贴将抵消该投资延迟。     

碳排放交易政策下供应链碳减排技术投资的博弈分析

针对单制造商和单零售商组成的供应链,考虑供应链碳减排技术投资与否两种情形,构建了集中式决策、分散式决策和供应链成员协同决策的博弈模型,探讨了消费者碳足迹敏感系数、碳限额及碳减排成本系数对供应链成员最优决策及减排效果的影响。研究表明,碳交易价格与碳限额呈线性关系时,供应链及制造商的利润与碳限额并不是线性递增的关系,政府合理的制定碳限额能够促使供应链企业有效减少碳排放;当消费者支付意愿依赖于产品碳足迹时,企业可以通过投资碳减排技术在减少碳排放量的同时获取更大的利润,实现环境与经济的协调发展。制造商和零售商通过渠道协作共同决策碳减排水平时,供应链碳排放总量比分散决策情形下明显减少。     

多寡头电力市场中考虑水平合作的碳减排竞争微分对策模型

在多寡头竞争下，本文利用微分对策理论研究了电力市场中考虑水平合作的碳减排竞争问题。发展了Bass等提出的双寡头竞争模型，构建了多寡头竞争微分对策碳减排模型，并运用汉密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼方程求解了该模型的最优上网电价、初始竞争性碳减排和水平合作碳减排投入以及均衡价值函数。在非对称发电商情形下，考虑了水平合作碳减排对市场份额的影响，给出了稳定时发电商所占的市场份额解析式，扩展了Prasad和Sethi关于市场份额的结论；在对称发电商情形下，分析了合作碳减排成本占总碳减排成本比例与市场份额的相关性，并讨论了市场最优发电商数量满足的参数约束。研究结果表明：非对称发电商的初始市场份额相等，投入碳减排成本最大的发电商在稳定时拥有最大的市场份额，而投入减排成本最小的发电商稳定的市场份额则最小；即使对称发电商的初始市场份额存在差异，某个对称发电商完全垄断整个市场的极端情形也不会出现，而是由各自趋于承担相同电力供给任务；双、三寡头电力市场总能保证对称发电商都能获得正利润，一旦发电商数量增至大于三个将无法保证。     

内外部碳配额交易路径下供应链减排决策研究

供应链内外部碳配额交易是碳配额政策下供应链协调碳配额的重要途径,对供应链成员企业碳减排决策产生重要影响。本文以单供应商和单制造商组成的二级供应链为研究对象,在完善的碳配额交易市场情况下,通过构建供应链外部碳交易路径和内外部碳配额交易路径共存的博弈模型,分析了碳配额政策下内外部碳配额交易条件、企业减排策略和利润影响因素。研究结果表明,在外部碳交易路径下,供应链上、下游企业的减排决策相互影响,且当单位碳排放量和碳减排成本系数相等时,上游企业碳减排率是下游企业的两倍;同时进行内外部碳配额交易能降低中间产品批发价格,提高供应链成员企业碳减排率、增加企业利润。算例验证了结论的有效性,并发现企业碳配额和内部碳交易价格在一定区间内才能使内部碳交易达成,此时制造商会分担供应商的碳减排费用。     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Employees' perceptions of organizational restructuring: the role of social support

Organizational change and restructuring is often perceived as leading to increased occupational stress, impacting negatively on the psychological well-being of employees. This pragmatic study investigates the role of social support and dispositional affect as moderators of role stress post-restructuring for employees in a public utility company. A total of 176 employees, including 37 managers, 60 graded staff and 78 industrial staff completed a self-report questionnaire, approximately 1 year postrestructuring, retrospectively assessing role conflict, ambiguity, overload and positive and negative feedback pre- and post-restructuring. Results suggested that overall role stress increased for managers/ senior officers and graded staff, but not for industrial staff. Social support was linked with lower role stress, more positive feedback and less negative feedback at post-restructuring. For certain role stressors this impact was moderated by dispositional affect, but the effect was not consistent across occupational groups. Positive affect enhanced the effect of manager support in reducing role conflict for graded staff, and the effect of co-worker support in increasing positive feedback and reducing negative feedback for industrial staff. Findings suggest that managers should pay particular attention to support and feedback for employees during periods of chronic occupational stress following organizational restructuring.