Mortality of American Troops in the Iraq War

We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006. Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat‐related. The death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of the United States but substantially higher than that of young adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30 November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age. Other categories with above‐average mortality in Iraq are enlisted troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics.     

Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy

Over the period 1990–2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug‐ and alcohol‐related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US‐born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.     

The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States

Using two different measures of relative cohort size – one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other, the ratio of young to prime age adults in the United States in that year – it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past thirty-three years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes in the amount of within-group variance in wages appear to be largely a function of changing age structure, and absolute wage levels have been strongly affected by these demographic changes, suggesting that population growth can have positive effects on the economy. Received: 27 January 1998/Accepted: 6 June 1998     

Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between changes in age-specific mortality and lifespan inequality, measured as the variance of age at death. Key to this relationship is a young–old threshold age, below and above which mortality decline respectively decreases and increases lifespan inequality. First, we show for Sweden that shifts in the threshold’s location have modified the correlation between changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality over the last two centuries. Second, we analyze the post–World War II (WWII) trajectories of lifespan inequality in a set of developed countries—Japan, Canada, and the United States—where thresholds centered on retirement age. Our method reveals how divergence in the age pattern of mortality change drives international divergence in lifespan inequality. Most strikingly, early in the 1980s, mortality increases in young U.S. males led to a continuation of high lifespan inequality in the United States; in Canada, however, the decline of inequality continued. In general, our wider international comparisons show that mortality change varied most at young working ages after WWII, particularly for males. We conclude that if mortality continues to stagnate at young ages yet declines steadily at old ages, increases in lifespan inequality will become a common feature of future demographic change.     

Why do I dread looking old?: A test of social identity theory,terror management theory,and the double standard of aging

ABSTRACT

Outward appearance is one of the means by which age is determined, and fear of looking old may stem from fears about social identity and death. This study explored how social identity theory and terror management theory may help to explain the dread of looking old. University students from the United States, England, and Australia (N = 1,042) completed a questionnaire regarding their attitudes about aging and older adults. Results indicated that sex, age, beliefs about personal aging, and death anxiety explained 30.4% of the variance for participants’ dread of looking old. Theoretical hypotheses were supported by our findings.     

Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses

Patterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e ^†, a dispersion measure that equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e ^†. The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The United States is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures, whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. This is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the United States. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e ^† correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and intercountry mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the United States compared with other countries. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death from heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.     

Registration completeness and international comparisons of infant mortality

The physical development of the live born infant is the single most important variable governing its survival: infant mortality among those weighing 2,500 grams (5 1/2 pounds) or less at birth is 17 times the mortality among those weighing more than 2,500 grams at birth. The variation in mortality according to birth weight (or gestation) is greater than for subclasses of color, sex, maternal age, or birth order. Infant mortality in the United States is significantly higher than in a number of other countries e.g., Sweden, Netherlands, Norway. The difference is thought, by some, to be due to underregistration of low birth weight infants in other countries. In this paper, distributions of live births by birth weight for Denmark, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the United States, and infant mortality data for Denmark and the United States are examined. The data do not support a hypothesis of gross underregistration of live born infants in other countries. The results indicate that some index of physical development (birth weight, gestation, or a combination of both) should be included in any appraisal of infant mortality.     

components of change in the number of households: 1970–1980

There was an increase from 62.8 to 79.1 million households in the United States during the 1970s. The number of households increased much more rapidly than the population. This paper decomposes this growth in the number of households into components associated with changing age and marital status composition and changing age by marital status-specific propensities to form households. About one-third of the increase in the number of households was due to increased age by marital status propensity to form households, and two-thirds was due to shifts in the age by marital status distribution and population growth. The increased propensity to form households had its major impact at ages under 35, and primarily among never-married persons. The composition component had its primary impact at ages 25–44 as a result of the baby boom, and also because of the increased fractions never married and separated and divorced.     

Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries

Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-specific age groups than does the Peto-Lopez method. An adjustment factor is also introduced to account for low mortality in the indirect method’s study population. These modifications are shown to be useful specifically in the estimation of deaths attributable to smoking for females at older ages, and in the estimation of smoking-attributable mortality more generally. In a comparison made between the United States and France with the modified method, smoking is found to be responsible for approximately one-half the difference in life expectancy for females at age 65.     

Pathways to legal immigration

In this paper we use the New Immigrant Survey Pilot Study (NISP) todescribe the amount and kind of experience that immigrants accumulate in the United States before they become permanent resident aliens. The NISP surveyed a representative sampleof legal immigrants who acquired residence papers during July and August of 1996, yielding a completed sample of 1,135 adults. Our analysis revealed that roughly two-thirds of thesenewly arrived immigrants had prior experience in the United States within one of six basic categories: illegal border-crossers, visa abusers, non-resident visitors, non-resident workers, students or exchange visitors, and refugees/asylees. Each of these pathways to legal immigration wasassociated with a different profile with respect to nationality, social background, and economic status. Using simple earnings regressions we demonstrate how these differences can yield misleading conclusions about the process of immigrant adaptation and assimilation, even if measured effects are reasonably accurate. We suggest that social scientists should changethe way they think and ask about immigrants' arrival in the United States.     

How Long Do We Live?

Period life expectancy is calculated from age‐specific death rates using life table methods that are among the oldest and most widely employed tools of demography. These methods are rarely questioned, much less criticized. Yet changing age patterns of adult mortality in countries with high life expectancy provide a basis for questioning the conventional use of life tables. This article argues that when the mean age at death is rising, period life expectancy at birth as conventionally calculated overestimates life expectancy. Estimates of this upward bias, ranging from 1.6 years for the United States and Sweden to 3.3 years for Japan for 1980–95, are presented. A similar bias in the opposite direction occurs when mean age at death is falling. These biases can also distort trends in life expectancy as conventionally calculated and may affect projected future trends in period life expectation, particularly in the short run.     

Growing Parental Economic Power in Parent–Adult Child Households: Coresidence and Financial Dependency in the United States, 1960–2010

Research on coresidence between parents and their adult children in the United States has challenged the myth that elders are the primary beneficiaries, instead showing that intergenerationally extended households generally benefit the younger generation more than their parents. Nevertheless, the economic fortunes of those at the older and younger ends of the adult life course have shifted in the second half of the twentieth century, with increasing financial well-being among older adults and greater financial strain among younger adults. This article uses U.S. census and American Community Survey (ACS) data to examine the extent to which changes in generational financial well-being over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries have been reflected in the likelihood of coresidence and financial dependency in parent–adult child U.S. households between 1960 and 2010. We find that younger adults have become more financially dependent on their parents and that while older adults have become more financially independent of their adult children, they nevertheless coreside with their needy adult children. We also find that the effect of economic considerations in decisions about coresidence became increasingly salient for younger adults, but decreasingly so for older adults.     

The Danish Effect: Beginning to Explain High Well-Being in Denmark

Although income and happiness have been linked at both the individual and national levels of analysis, few studies have specifically examined the different relationships between these two variables in affluent nations. This study investigates various measures of well-being in both the United States and Denmark. Respondents in both countries reported high levels of well-being but Americans generally reported greater positive and negative affect while Danes reported higher levels of satisfaction and enjoyment. Interestingly, low income respondents in the United States reported higher negative affect and lower life satisfaction than their counterparts in Denmark. For positive affect, the major difference between the two countries was found among high income respondents. The key to understanding differences in the well-being of these two nations appears to lie in understanding the well-being of the poor. Suggestions for future directions in research are discussed.     

Health and Other Aspects of the Quality of Life of Older People

Celebrating the United Nations' International Year of Older Persons, in September 1999 a survey research project was undertaken throughout the Northern Interior Health Region (NIHR) of British Columbia. A total of 875 people completed 23-page questionnaires, the average age of the respondents was 69 and the range ran from 55 to 95 years. Responses to the SF-36 questionnaire indicated that for male respondents aged 55–64, the mean score for the 8 dimensions was 74.4. This mean was practically identical to that of the United States norm for such people (74.5) and lower than that for the United Kingdom (77.4). For male respondents aged 65 and older, the mean was 68.3. This was numerically higher but again practically the same as that of the norm for the United States (68.1). For females aged 55–64, the mean score for 8 dimensions was 73. This was superior to that of the United States norm of (70.6) for such people and lower than that for the United Kingdom (74.6). For female respondents aged 65 and older, the mean score was 65.4. This was practically identical to that of the United States (65.5).Comparing 18 average figures for our respondents on satisfaction with specific domains of life (e.g., financial security, health, friendships) and life as a whole with those of average adults in Prince George in November 1999, we found that in all but two cases the older people's scores were higher. Only in the cases of satisfaction with health and overall happiness were older people's scores lower, and the differences were not statistically significant.Eleven percent of our respondents reported that they had been a victim of a crime in the last year, compared to 38% in our 1997 adult victimization survey. Older people had a more benign view than ordinary adults of the growth of crime in their neighbourhood and city, although exactly 64% of both groups thought that crime had increased in Canada. Although older people had a more optimistic view than other adults of the increase in crime in their neighbourhoods, fewer of the former than the latter felt safe out at night. Nevertheless, compared to adults surveyed in 1997, the behaviour of respondents in our survey of older people was not as constrained by concerns of criminal victimization.Two or three of the 8 SF-36 health dimensions explained 37% of the variation in life satisfaction scores, 34% of variation in happiness scores, 34% in satisfaction with the overall quality of life scores and 22% in satisfaction with one's overall standard of living. In every case, Mental Health was the dimension that had the greatest impact on our four dependent variables.When all of our potential predictors were entered into a regression equation simultaneously, we found that they could explain 60% of the variance in life satisfaction scores, 44% in happiness scores, 58% in satisfaction with the overall quality of life scores and 59% in satisfaction with one's overall standard of living scores.     

A new evaluation of United States census data on the extreme aged

Population and mortality data for the extreme aged have generally been considered subject to a large degree of error, particularly for nonwhites. In this study, estimates of the United States population 85 years of age and over in 1960 are devised through a procedure known as the "method of extinct generations," which permits the reconstruction of "extinct" population cohorts from a series of annual death statistics. Estimates of the total population by single year of age and of sex-color groups by five-year age groups are compared with the 1960 census. With some exceptions, the data for whites show remarkable correspondence; the tally for nonwhites developed from death records falls considerably short of the census count, indicating a greater overstatement of age in the latter source.     

The variance of population characteristics in stable populations, with applications to the distribution of income

Summary Stable population theory has recently been used to analyse the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on economic variables such as income per head. In this paper more general results are derived to describe the effects of changing vital rates on the variance and higher moments of the distribution of some age-dependent variable. Simple analytical expressions are derived which decompose the effects of changes in age structure into the effects on inter-cohort and intra-cohort variance. The results are easily applied to standard measures of the distribution of income. By combining the analytical results with actual age profiles of income and income variance from the United States and Brazil it is observed that both the magnitude and direction of the effects of population growth on measured inequality are sensitive to the specific age profiles used. The most surprising result is that the Brazilian age profiles suggest that higher growth rates may actually reduce measured inequality, although the effect is relatively small.     

Estimating the approximate size of the illegal alien population in the united states by the comparative trend analysis of age-specific death rates

This paper presents the results of an attempt to determine, through the use of demographic analysis, the approximate magnitude of the resident illegal alien population in the United States. The method described is the comparative analysis of trends in age-specific death rates in the United States and selected States, 1950 to 1975. The procedure depends on two assumptions: (a) that few or no illegal aliens are included in decennial census counts or current population estimates; and (b) that the reported statistics on deaths include deaths to all or nearly all illegal aliens. If the illegal alien population has increased by several million since 1970, then death rates in geographic areas where illegal aliens are most concentrated should show substantial excesses over the rates for the remainder of the country. A roughly similar downward trend in the death rates of all age groups since 1970 in all areas of the United States is apparent and hence does not support the view that many millions of illegal residents (perhaps over 6 million) are living here. However, the finding of a persistent deviation in the death rate trend for 10 selected States since 1960 for whites males, ages 20 to 44, and for no other group, suggests that the deaths of illegal aliens are being recorded in our vital statistics system. A range of estimates of the illegal alien population based on this analysis is presented and compared with the results of other studies.