Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan

Research on fertility changes in former Soviet states of the South Caucasus is scant and has overlooked the role of armed conflicts. This study contributes to filling these gaps by providing the first detailed account of fertility changes in Azerbaijan since independence and by exploring them in relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Estimates from retrospective birth history data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey show that since 1991 period fertility declined to almost below-replacement levels, essentially as a result of stopping behavior, and, only recently, slight birth postponement. While the conflict seems to have little influence on aggregate trends, discrete-time logit models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity reveal a 42–45 percent higher risk of transitioning to the second birth for women who have been exposed to conflict violence—whether in the form of forced migration or because of residence in the conflict-torn Karabakh region—than for nonexposed women. Never-migrant women from Karabakh have also significantly higher probability of having a first child. Further positive effects on fertility are observed for women who lost a child during peak conflict years. Risk-insurance and replacement effects are possible mechanisms explaining such fertility responses.     

Estimating a marriage matching model with spillover effects

We use marriage matching functions to study how marital patterns change when population supplies change. Specifically, we use a behavioral marriage matching function with spillover effects to rationalize marriage and cohabitation behavior in contemporary Canada. The model can estimate a couple's systematic gains to marriage and cohabitation relative to remaining single. These gains are invariant to changes in population supplies. Instead, changes in population supplies redistribute these gains between a couple. Although the model is behavioral, it is nonparametric. It can fit any observed cross-sectional marriage matching distribution. We use the estimated model to quantify the impacts of gender differences in mortality rates and the baby boom on observed marital behavior in Canada. The higher mortality rate of men makes men scarcer than women. We show that the scarceness of men modestly reduced the welfare of women and increased the welfare of men in the marriage market. On the other hand, the baby boom increased older men's net gains to entering the marriage market and lowered middle-aged women's net gains.     

Bridewealth and Birth Control: Low Fertility in the Indonesian Archipelago, 1500–1900

Before the onset of the present demographic transition, population growth in Indonesia had reached unprecedentedly high levels. This article demonstrates that such high levels were a recent phenomenon. Prior to 1900 rates of natural population increase were low to very low in most areas in Indonesia. This runs counter to expectations based on Hajnal's “Eastern marriage pattern,” which could imply high growth levels in extended family areas, such as most Indonesian regions outside Java in the past. Usually, the low population growth rates in Southeast Asia are attributed to high mortality owing to high levels of violent conflict. It is argued that other factors contributing to such high levels of mortality should receive more attention. In this article it is also argued that low fertility rates, too, played a role in generating low rates of natural increase. The article discusses the influence of marriage patterns, household structure, methods of birth control, adoption, and slavery on fertility.     

The Intergenerational Effect of Cambodia's Genocide on Children's Education and Health

We investigate the intergenerational impact of conflict on the educational and health outcomes of children born years after the conflict ended by exploiting geographical variation in the intensity of the genocide that occurred during the Khmer Rouge (KR) regime in Cambodia. We find that children of individuals who were of prime marriage age during the genocide and experienced greater intensity of genocide have worse educational and health outcomes. In particular, for each standard deviation increase in the intensity of the genocide, average children's normal grade progression rate decreases by 0.03 standard deviations and average children's height‐for‐ age Z‐score decreases by 0.06 standard deviations. We examine several channels through which genocide could affect children born to survivors after the conflict and find suggestive evidence that the marriage market acts as a channel that transmits the adverse impact of conflict across generations. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of mortality rates and post‐KR internal migration.     

A temporary contraction in the number of Peruvian births circa 1990: documenting a previously undetected event

In the 1980s, Peru experienced a deep economic crisis and an extremely violent political climate with armed confrontation. As suggested by the literature, it would be reasonable to expect a temporary contraction in the number of births during this period; however, the official population estimates do not show that behaviour. Relying on three different sources (generated independently by diverse organisations in different moments and using varied methods), this article finds consistent evidence suggesting there was a contraction in fertility that has not been previously accounted for. The article also estimates the size of said contraction.     

The impact of international migration upon the timing of marriage and childbearing

Experiences of 1500 native-born Australians and 1000 foreign-born immigrants to Australia, surveyed in Melbourne in 1971, reveal that immigration delayed marriage for migrants arriving between age 15 and marriage, and delayed first, second, third and fourth births for immigrants arriving during each birth interval. This migration effect was clearly finite in its influence, affecting only proximate vital events rather than persisting through several successive events. The temporary nature of the migration effect highlights the adaptability of international migrants.     

四川盆地农村人口婚姻迁移空间演变分析及对策探讨

婚姻迁移是我国农村人口迁移的重要方面,在不同的经济社会背景下,农村人口的婚姻迁移具有不同的空间特征,并随着时代的发展而演变。根据实地调研资料分析四川盆地农村人口六十余年来婚姻迁移的空间演变情况,发现婚迁距离总体呈逐年增大的趋势,受教育程度和婚前从业状况对其婚迁距离有较明显的影响,经济动因在婚迁地域选择中的作用越来越突出。农村人口婚迁空间演变带来的影响中积极性与消极性并存,从宣传引导、政策调整、经济扶持、教育培训等方面提出相应对策措施。     

Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi

This article examines the effect of AIDS-related mortality of the prime-age adult population on marriage behavior among women in Malawi. A rise in prime-age adult mortality increases risks associated with the search for a marriage partner in the marriage market. A possible behavioral change in the marriage market in response to an increase in prime-age adult mortality is to marry earlier to avoid exposure to HIV/AIDS risks. We test this hypothesis by using micro data from Malawi, where prime-age adult mortality has drastically increased. In the analysis, we estimate the probability of prime-age adult mortality that sample women have observed during their adolescent period by utilizing retrospective information on deaths of their siblings. Empirical analysis shows that excess prime-age adult mortality in the local marriage market lowers the marriage age for females and shortens the interval between the first sex and first marriage.     

Individual Decisions to Migrate During Civil Conflict

The existing literature on forced migration limits our understanding of how violence affects migration to competing destinations. This article adds to the literature on forced migration by studying how armed violence during a period of civil conflict in south-central Nepal influenced the likelihood of local, internal, and international migration. We find that violence has a nonlinear effect on migration, such that low to moderate levels of violence reduce the odds of movement, but when violence reaches high levels, the odds of movement increase. We also find that the effect of violence on mobility increases as the distance of the move increases. When we consider the influence of violence on microlevel decision-making, we find that the effects of individual and household-level determinants were mostly consistent with hypotheses derived from contemporary theories of voluntary migration and that no predictor of migration influenced the decision to migrate differently in the presence of violence.     

流动人口婚姻满意度实证分析

利用"流动人口的婚姻家庭调查研究"课题收集的数据,从流动人口对婚姻生活的满意度和对配偶的满意度来描述流动人口的婚姻满意度状况,并对流动人口各方面的婚姻满意度随结婚年数的发展变化趋势进行分析。通过建立多视角多因素的综合解释模型,对流动人口婚姻满意度的影响因素进行回归分析,结果表明,夫妻关系维系因素、冲突解决方式、婚恋意愿、权利模式等是流动人口婚姻满意度的主要影响因素。     

Adolescent migration and the 1990s nuptiality transition in Mali

Attempts to explain the rise in women's age at marriage across Africa have focused mainly on determinants in the urban environment, notably women's education and the economic recession. In our study, we examined the migration of adolescent girls as a factor in the transition to a later age of marriage in rural Mali, using an analysis of data from a longitudinal survey conducted over 20 years. The findings show a close correlation between the rise in labour migration and the onset of this nuptiality transition. Continuing changes in marriage patterns include not only its postponement but also a breakdown in the marriage formalization process. Two main mechanisms are documented: a direct one, as migration enables young women to choose the timing of their marriage and is a source of empowerment; and an indirect one, as migration challenges family marriage conventions and contributes to elders disengaging from control over marriage and young people.     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

Effect of Conflict on Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth in Rwanda

Using Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2005 data, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model to identify the determinants of age at marriage and age at first birth and whether these decisions were affected by conflict. We find that women living in clusters accounting for a larger proportion of sibling deaths in 1994, the year of the genocide, were more likely to marry later and have children later compared with those living in clusters accounting for a lower proportion of sibling deaths. Women living in regions with higher levels of under-five mortality were more likely to have their first child earlier compared with women living in regions with lower infant mortality. The age at marriage was probably affected by two reasons: the change in age structure and sex ratio of the population following the genocide, and the breakdown of kinship in the case of women who lost their siblings.     

Toward a comprehensive demography: rethinking the research agenda on change and response

This essay drafts a new interdisciplinary agenda for research on population and development. Starting from Kingsley Davis's 1963 formulation of change and response, Davis's analytical categories are broadened to include inertia as well as change and to encompass both demographic and non-demographic responses at the micro, meso, and macro levels. On that basis the essay proposes what can be called a comprehensive demography, an approach drawing principally on micro-level methodologies like those employed in anthropological demography. Like anthropological demography, comprehensive demography questions the rationality of actors, emphasizes cultural infuences, and stops short of the postmodernist extremes of anthropology. But it also takes explicit account of higher-level social, economic, and political factors bearing on demographic behavior and outcomes. The conclusion raises some epistemological issues. Illustrative examples are offered throughout to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, mainly referring to sub-Saharan africa and the Caribbean and often drawn from the authors' own fieldwork.     

中国流动人口通婚圈研究——基于流动人口动态监测数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,随着人口迁移流动的发展,人们的社会交际圈子迅速扩大,大规模的人口迁移流动对社会以及流动人口自身都产生了多方面的影响,其中对其婚恋行为的影响是一个值得研究的重要领域,但目前学界和政府对此关心仍然不够。文章使用2013年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据,运用二元Logistic回归分析方法对流动人口通婚圈研究发现：除流动人口的年龄、性别、户口和受教育程度等基本特征外,迁移流动行为也与通婚圈扩展具有显著的相关性。在流入地的居留时间、迁移流动地域范围和相对结婚时间都与跨省通婚有关,地理通婚圈扩展是社会良性发展的标志,但也不能忽视通婚圈扩展所带来的一些新问题和挑战。     

[Inquiry into the research method behind our strategy of population development].]

This is a critique of research on which the strategy of China's current population planning is based. The author states that the research process should be more multidimensional, involving both qualitative and quantitative aspects, static and dynamic analyses, and both macro- and micro-level analysis. The strategy should also take into consideration political as well as socioeconomic factors. The article concludes with a summary of macro- and micro-level plans for the country's future population development.     

人口学视野下的婚姻家庭研究：内容与方法

人口学视野下的婚姻家庭研究在其内容与方法上呈现出鲜明的特色。本文采用文献计量分析方法。将新中国成立以来人口学婚姻家庭研究的发展划分为两个主要阶段．并分别对婚姻和家庭研究及其主要方法进行了归纳分析,发现人口学研究着重于将婚姻家庭放在整个人口生命周期中,与各主要人口事件和人口过程相联系,尤其关注婚姻家庭与生育之间的关系,指出婚姻家庭作为重要的人口事件和人口社会经济特征,其研究的进一步拓展与深化需要结合多学科视角。     

进城还是回村？——跨省婚迁者的空间选择

在经济社会转型、人口频繁流动的条件下,婚迁由乡到城的单向迁移转变成为城乡互动的双向流动。婚迁者留在城市还是回到乡村,要取决于多种条件。本研究通过测度跨省婚迁的性别比发现,自1990年来的20年间我国省际婚迁性别比下降近一半。全国省际婚迁性别比呈现城市-城镇-乡村两端大中间小的“微笑曲线”。在婚迁的空间选择上,男性以城市为主,女性则以乡村为主。进一步分析影响婚姻迁移的因素发现,经济变量中人均GDP对总婚迁和城市婚迁呈正向影响,城镇和乡村呈负向影响;居民收入和消费状况对婚姻迁移产生正向影响,但消费的城乡差别则对其产生负向影响;人口的城乡流动与迁移以及社会变量中各因素对跨省婚迁产生正向影响,而文化变量中的各因素则形成负向影响。     

Note on some problems in interpreting migration data from the 1960 Census of population

Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the, United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the “migrants,” especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence.