Assessing the Effect of Welfare Reforms on Public Assistance Caseloads in Four Ohio Counties

Abstract

The implementation of welfare reform at the local level is critical to assessing the effects of structural reforms initiated since the passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunities Reconciliation Act of 1996. Wide variations in the activities undertaken in response to national welfare reform have hindered efforts to understand the factors that have contributed to the success of welfare reform apparent in caseload reductions. This paper reviews Community Human Service Plans in four Ohio counties and examines their trends in caseloads. Two strategies emerge: “job attachment” and “human capital development.” These differences in local implementation can be related to caseload trends.     

Poverty,Welfare, and the Livelihood Strategies of Nonmetropolitan Single Mothers*

Abstract Using the National Survey of Family Growth, we document nonmetropolitan and metropolitan single mothers' economic livelihood strategies. We have three objectives: (1) examine differences in employment, cohabitation, co‐residence with other adults, and welfare receipt; (2) evaluate how these livelihood strategies are associated with economic well‐being; and (3) identify key metro‐nonmetro differences in the effectiveness of these livelihood strategies in improving the economic well‐being of single mothers. We find surprisingly similar livelihood strategies in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas. Employment, cohabitation, and co‐residence are strongly associated with economic well‐being. However, nonmetro single mothers are less likely than metropolitan mothers to benefit economically from full‐time employment. Given our results, “work‐first” policies are likely to be less efficacious in nonmetropolitan areas. Indeed, nonmetropolitan single mothers are often “triply disadvantaged” compared to their metro counterparts; they experience higher rates of poverty, higher barriers to welfare receipt, and lower economic returns from other livelihood strategies.     

Suburban Sprawl,Regional Diffusion,and the Fate of Small Retailers in a Large Retail Environment, 1977–1996

Abstract

Research on the decline of public life in the United States has largely overlooked the role of Main Street retailers that provide public spaces for the maintenance of informal social ties. A central factor shaping the viability of small retailers is the development of big box chain stores that offer one-stop shopping and price out smaller competitors. Although prior studies have considered the transition from small to large retailers as a national phenomenon, arguing for the importance of place effects, we document the spatial variation in this process for nonmetropolitan counties in the United States. We hypothesize that the economic downturns in agriculture and manufacturing during the 1980s, combined with suburban sprawl into nonmetropolitan counties, facilitated the decline of small retailing in specific locales. Employing data from the 1977–1996 U.S. County Business Patterns, we test our hypotheses concerning the spatial variability in the decline of small retailing. Our results point to a marked decline in the number of establishments and employment in selected retail industries for nonmetropolitan counties near metropolitan areas in the South, Midwest, and West. These findings highlight the importance of considering local business enterprises as an important dimension of public life and local leadership in community affairs. We conclude our study by outlining the social consequences of the decline of small retail activity and suggest directions for future research.     

Child Poverty and the Changing Rural Family1

Abstract Our main objective is to give demographic perspective to changes since 1960 in the comparative economic circumstances of non-metropolitan and metropolitan children. Specifically, we examine absolute and relative poverty rates using child records from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 Public Use Microdata Samples and from the 1990 March annual demographic file of the Current Population Survey. Results reveal that more than one-in-five nonmetropolitan children today are poor, an increasing proportion are deeply impoverished, and a growing share are living in families with incomes lagging standards typical of the average American family. Changes in family structure accounted for roughly 60 percent of the increase in nonmetropolitan child poverty during the 1980s. Positive economic effects associated with increasing female employment, rising education levels, and declining family size in nonmetropolitan areas were more than offset by the deleterious effects of changing family structure. And the persistently higher rates of nonmetropolitan than metropolitan child poverty cannot be explained away by compositional differences in parental employment patterns, educational levels, or family size. Our results suggest that recent changes in family formation and structure cannot be disassociated from the changing economic welfare of children, especially for those living in nonmetropolitan America.     

Commuting and the rural-urban hierarchy

The purpose of this paper is to consider the relation between commuting and the settlement structure, with particular attention to rural and nonmetropolitan areas. I examined commuting flows between metropolitan central cities, other metropolitan areas, nonmetropolitan places with more than 10,000 people, those with 2500–10000 people, and other rural areas. Despite the deconcentration of population, industry and trade that was especially marked in the 1970s, commuting in 1980 was predominantly toward larger places in the ruralurban hierarchy, and particularly from rural areas and the other metropolitan category to cities. Overall levels of commuting were high, and most were within either nonmetropolitan or metropolitan areas. Smaller nonmetropolitan places particularly had high proportions of both in- and out-commuters. Differences in commuting flows by gender, socioeconomic status and industry were small, but generally in the directions expected on the basis of prior research. The findings reveal a high degree of work-residence interdependence among settlement units in nonmetropolitan America, with social and economic differences in commuting flows representing an important aspect of community structure.     

Local Government Fiscal Burden in Nonmetropolitan America1

Rising fiscal pressure on local governments in rural areas of the United States is documented in this study. The level of fiscal burden on taxpayers to support local governments in nonmetropolitan areas is found to be higher than that in metropolitan areas between 1977 and 1987. Using a model from the urban fiscal literature, the level of fiscal burden in nonmetropolitan areas is found to be influenced by a combination of demographic, socioeconomic, intergovernmental, and historical factors. Intergovernmental revenue transfers from the state and federal government play a critical role in determining the level of fiscal burden rural taxpayers bear. These findings have implications for rural economic development and for understanding how rural areas are influenced by the larger society.     

Recent Immigrant Settlement in the Nonmetropolitan United States: Evidence from Internal Census Data*

Abstract In the 1990s, studies have documented widespread growth of immigrants in U.S. communities not known as common destinations in the past. This trend has fueled population growth in some nonmetropolitan areas and offset population decline in other areas. In this paper, we examine the implications of recent foreign born in-migration for rural America. Our focus is on a collection of 59 nonmetropolitan counties where growth in foreign born stock offset declines in U.S. native population and resulted in increased local population by 2000. To understand these nonmetropolitan offset counties, we use confidential Census Bureau data that offer us the detailed geography and larger sample size needed to closely examine spatial shifts in the foreign born population, especially those recently arrived. Our findings illustrate dramatic compositional shifts in the populations of these areas, and suggest new demographic complexity in nonmetropolitan areas in the 21^st century.     

The relationship between child welfare financing,screening, and substantiation

This study examines the relationship between state-level child welfare spending and two important decision points in the child welfare system: the decision to screen out a referral and the decision to substantiate. The model is estimated using a pooled fractional probit estimator that controls for year effects and state-level clustering. The findings suggest that decreases in state-level child welfare expenditures predict increases in the proportion of referrals that are screened out and decreases in the proportion of maltreatment claims that are substantiated. The results are robust to the inclusion of caseload and federal spending as control variables, to the exclusion of states known to have changed their screening or funding practices during the sample period, and to the use of combined state and local child welfare expenditures as an explanatory variable in lieu of state-level child welfare expenditures. The findings imply that the amount of money a state spends on child welfare may influence important decisions in the child welfare process.     

TANF child-only cases: Identifying the characteristics and needs of children living in low-income families

In a ‘child-only’ case the adult is not included in the welfare benefit calculation and aid is provided only for the child(ren). The proportion of child-only cases within the caseloads of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) welfare program continues to increase while overall TANF cases decrease. Given relatively limited information about the children and adults in child-only cases, this analysis presents the major findings from a review of studies on characteristics of children and caregivers in child-only cases with implications for child welfare and welfare-to-work services.     

TANF child-only cases in California: Barriers to self-sufficiency and well-being

Since the United States implemented Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), or ‘welfare reform,’ the number of assistance cases without an adult receiving aid has risen dramatically. In states like California, these child-only cases now constitute the majority of all TANF cases. Despite this increase, existing research sheds little light on the composition of child-only caseloads and the status of the adults and children in such cases. Drawing on county administrative data and interviews with 143 parents associated with child-only cases in five California counties, this paper identifies both the demographics of the child-only caseload in these sites and the major barriers to employment that parents in sanctioned and timed-out child-only cases face. These include human capital, health, and family issues, in addition to other obstacles. The data suggest that, despite functioning as one administrative entity, CalWORKs, California's TANF program, has transformed into two separate programs: a welfare-to-work program and a subsistence-level cash assistance program for some members of child-only families. Given this transformation, the paper closes by suggesting a research agenda for future child-only scholarship and argues for policy innovations to meet the needs of the expanding child-only caseload.     

Long-term employment and earnings among low-income families with children

Self-support through employment has become much more important for low-income mothers and welfare recipients as a result of welfare reform and decline of welfare caseloads. This study used the 2004 longitudinal panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine longitudinal patterns and trajectories of employment and earnings and to identify factors associated with long-term employment and earnings success among low-income mothers. The results indicate that despite the high proportion of low-income mothers employed, a substantial number were unable to sustain employment and had low earnings. Only 37% of low-income mothers experienced earnings success. Moreover, nearly half of the sample who had successful employment trajectories experienced stagnant or decreasing earnings. Results highlight the importance of considering the level, trend, and stability of employment and earnings in categorizing employment and earnings success. The factors associated with both long-term employment and earnings success included education, work disability, earnings of other adults in the family, homeownership, and state unemployment rates. Results also revealed some differences in factors that determined these two outcomes. The findings point to the importance of advocating for social policies that provide additional income and employment supports for low-income families with children.     

PARENTAL SUBSTANCE USE AND FOSTER CARE: EVIDENCE FROM TWO METHAMPHETAMINE SUPPLY SHOCKS

Foster care caseloads have nearly doubled over the last three decades. Parental methamphetamine (meth) use grew significantly during the same period. While child welfare workers and law enforcement claim that parental meth use contributes to foster care growth, the evidence for a causal effect has not been determined. This paper presents the first evidence of a causal effect of meth on foster care admissions using two exogenous supply‐side interventions in meth markets from the late 1990s for identification. First, we find that restrictions on meth precursor distribution caused meth use (proxied by white meth self‐referred treatment cases) to decline 4.1%. Second, using two‐stage least squares, we estimate a positive elasticity of foster care cases with respect to meth use of 1.54. We also estimate elasticities of 1.03 and 1.49 for cases of child neglect and parental abuse, respectively. These results suggest that child welfare policies should be designed specifically for the children of meth‐using parents. (JEL I12, J13, K42)     

Changing Economic Opportunities,Family Structure,and Poverty in Rural Areas1

Abstract Instrustrial restructuring in the 1980s ushered in a new pattern of growing economic diversity over geographic space. The objective of this study is to examine the extent and etiology of changing spatial inequality between and within metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas, as measured by increasing or decreasing county poverty rates. Results based on data from the 1980 and 1990 census summary tape files suggest several conclusions. First, poverty rates increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties during the 1980s; historical patterns of metro-nonmetro economic convergence slowed over the past decade. Second, poverty rates tended to decline in nonmetro counties with traditionally high rates of poverty, thus providing counter-evidence to arguments suggesting that the gap between traditionally poor and nonpoor nonmetro counties has widened. Third, spatial differences in poverty rates and relative increases in county poverty rates over the 1980s were most strongly associated with women's employment and headship status. The results raise questions about the extent to which traditional rural economic development strategies address the potentially deleterious economic effects of rising percentages of poor female-headed families.     

An innovative child welfare pilot initiative: Results and outcomes

Successful family reunification is achieved only about 50% of the time when children are in foster care. Parents' ability to access and complete court ordered services are paramount in determining whether the family can achieve reunification. However, the research on how to best facilitate service access and utilization are sparse. A matched sample of 100 families with no prior child welfare involvement and at least one child in out of home care were selected from Department of Children and Family closed administrative case files. This study compared 48 families who received traditional child welfare services to 48 families who received a Family First model intervention (PFFP) from a large urban public child welfare agency. The independent variables were the elements that distinguished the Family First model from traditional child welfare services and included the number of caseworkers for the life of the case, caseload size, and service needs met through community partnerships. The dependent variables were the stability of the children's out of home placement, the time to reunification, the length of agency involvement, the stability of reunification at one year follow up, subsequent substantiated child maltreatment reports one year after the cases were closed, the distance a placement location was from the home of the family at intake, the match between identified needs and the timely access of services. Hierarchal regression and survival models were constructed to examine elements of the intervention for their impact on family outcomes. The results suggested that a community partnership model that incorporated family engagement, enhanced service provider accessibility, reduced caseloads, one caseworker for each family, are associated with successful reunification outcomes. Moreover, the intervention families were more likely to have their needs met with clinical or economic services, experienced fewer days in out-of-home placement, shorter involvement with the agency, reduced placement moves and were more likely to be reunified sooner compared to the group who received standard child welfare services. At one year follow up, the intervention families also had fewer substantiated child maltreatment reports and children were more likely to be living in the parental home. Implications for policy, research and practice are presented.     

From Foster Care to Adoption and Guardianship: A Twenty-First Century Challenge

For nearly four decades, child welfare policy and practice have focused on the achievement of legal permanence for children in foster care. Although federal child welfare policy has resulted in the movement of children from state custody to legally permanent adoptive or guardianship families, little is known about the quality and enduring nature of these placements. A significant challenge of the twenty-first century child welfare system is how to ensure the well-being of children currently living with adoptive parents or guardians. This paper discusses child welfare policy and trends related to post-permanency well-being, including the decrease in Title IV-E foster care caseloads nationwide and the simultaneous increase in Title IV-E adoptive and guardianship caseloads. We highlight the needs of a twenty-first century child welfare system, including increased federal efforts to ensure child permanence and well-being after legal adoption or guardianship has been achieved, as well as more rigorous longitudinal and interdisciplinary research focused on the post-permanency adjustment of children and their families.     

Welfare Reform and Elderly Immigrants' Naturalization: Access to Public Benefits as an Incentive for Naturalization in the United States

Welfare reform in the United States restricted non‐citizens' eligibility for public assistance programs and strengthened economic benefits from naturalization. We examine the impact of these policy changes on elderly immigrants' naturalization, considering their level of need for public benefits. Using individual data from the Current Population Survey as well as state‐level data, we employ a differences‐in‐differences approach to consider variations in time, state policy, and probability of Medicaid participation. Results show that naturalization significantly increased among elderly immigrants who were likely to participate in Medicaid, suggesting that elderly immigrants in need of Medicaid became naturalized to maintain their eligibility for public benefits after welfare reform.     

Welfare Reform on American Indian Reservations

Abstract

In this article we document trends in welfare caseloads and some initial experiences of service providers and welfare recipients on reservations within Arizona under Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). We document the issues and concerns of state and tribal service providers as they implement the legislation on reservations that are often geographically isolated and which lack infrastructure, jobs, childcare and transportation. We also record experiences of women with children on reservations with the 1996 federal welfare legislation. These families experience similar barriers when trying to move from welfare to work as do their counterparts across the country; however, these barriers are magnified on reservations. The welfare recipients' barriers include: a shortage of employment opportunities on reservations; a lack of transportation and childcare facilities; low levels of education and job experience; and, individual and family problems. Poor families in Indian communities face additional barriers to employment because of their geographic isolation, lack of access to basic necessities (like telephones), as well as stereotypes and discrimination by employers due to ethnicity or personal/family histories.     

Mate Availability,Family Formation,and Family Structure Among Black Americans in Nonmetropolitan Louisiana 1970–19801

Abstract This paper assesses the effects of the community sex ratio on black family formation and family structure in nonmetropolitan parishes in Louisiana. As predicted, the sex ratio is found to have strong positive effects on marriage prevalence for black women, the prevalence of husband and wife families for black families, and the percentage of black children residing in husband and wife families and strong negative effects on the nonmarital fertility ratio for black women. Thus, we conclude that the sex ratio hypothesis should be given greater prominence in discussions of changes in black family structure and that sex ratio effects should be taken into account when framing policies aimed at ameliorating social problems attendant to high relative incidence of nonmarital births and single-parent, female-headed families with young children (e.g., poverty). We also note that, while the literature overwhelmingly concentrates on black family structure in urban areas, changes in the black family are equally pronounced in nonmetropolitan areas suggesting that explanations emphasizing the dynamics of urban ghettos may be too narrow.     

Is relationship and marriage education relevant and appropriate to child welfare?

Child welfare professionals (CWPs) have historically been ignored as a potential delivery system of relationship and marriage education (RME). Based on a sample of 1015 CWPs from two states, the current study shows that CWPs believe promoting healthy couple and marital relationships is relevant to the families they serve and their work, and that they are open to receiving RME training. Results from structural equation modeling indicate that CWPs' beliefs about the relevancy and appropriateness of RME may be influenced by their current RME ability and comfort level, their beliefs about the state of marriage and the prevalence of couples in their current caseload of families they serve. Implications related to promoting RME within child welfare and engaging CWPs in RME training are discussed.     

Locational effects on AFDC exits: Examining local labor markets

Recent welfare reform limits welfare recipients to a maximum of five years of cash assistance. This policy change raises the question of whether it is reasonable to expect welfare recipients to be able to leave the rolls within a five year period, regardless of the economic conditions of the state or area in which they live. This article pursues this issue by examining the effects of economic conditions and residential location on a welfare recipient’s likelihood of leaving welfare over time. The analysis uses linked files from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the 1970 and 1980 U.S. Censuses, and County and City Data Book data from 1972 to 1994 to determine AFDC exit probabilities. The results indicate that being low-skilled and living within one of the largest U.S. cities dramatically decreases the likelihood of exit from AFDC via increased earnings. The results also show that the job loss within cities has a significant negative impact on AFDC exit probabilities for marriage, increased earnings and all exits for high school dropouts and African American AFDC recipients. However, including city employment variables did not decrease the negative effects of living within large northern cities for earnings exits. These results indicate that negative economic conditions and poor transportation within cities impede low-skilled AFDC recipients from increasing earnings and leaving welfare.