The use of the weighted likelihood in the natural exponential families with quadratic variance

The authors propose a weighted likelihood concept for the estimation of parameters in natural exponential families with quadratic variance. They apply the results to both simulated and real data.     

Approximating bayesian inference by weighted likelihood

The author proposes to use weighted likelihood to approximate Bayesian inference when no external or prior information is available. He proposes a weighted likelihood estimator that minimizes the empirical Bayes risk under relative entropy loss. He discusses connections among the weighted likelihood, empirical Bayes and James‐Stein estimators. Both simulated and real data sets are used for illustration purposes.     

Adaptive likelihood estimator of conditional variance function

Modelling volatility in the form of conditional variance function has been a popular method mainly due to its application in financial risk management. Among others, we distinguish the parametric GARCH models and the nonparametric local polynomial approximation using weighted least squares or gaussian likelihood function. We introduce an alternative likelihood estimate of conditional variance and we show that substitution of the error density with its estimate yields similar asymptotic properties, that is, the proposed estimate is adaptive to the error distribution. Theoretical comparison with existing estimates reveals substantial gains in efficiency, especially if error distribution has fatter tails than Gaussian distribution. Simulated data confirm the theoretical findings while an empirical example demonstrates the gains of the proposed estimate.     

A nonparametric estimation procedure for the Hawkes process: comparison with maximum likelihood estimation

In earlier work, Kirchner [An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process. Quant Financ. 2017;17(4):571–595], we introduced a nonparametric estimation method for the Hawkes point process. In this paper, we present a simulation study that compares this specific nonparametric method to maximum-likelihood estimation. We find that the standard deviations of both estimation methods decrease as power-laws in the sample size. Moreover, the standard deviations are proportional. For example, for a specific Hawkes model, the standard deviation of the branching coefficient estimate is roughly 20% larger than for MLE – over all sample sizes considered. This factor becomes smaller when the true underlying branching coefficient becomes larger. In terms of runtime, our method clearly outperforms MLE. The present bias of our method can be well explained and controlled. As an incidental finding, we see that also MLE estimates seem to be significantly biased when the underlying Hawkes model is near criticality. This asks for a more rigorous analysis of the Hawkes likelihood and its optimization.     

Symmetric maximum kernel likelihood estimation

We introduce an estimator for the population mean based on maximizing likelihoods formed from a symmetric kernel density estimate. Due to these origins, we have dubbed the estimator the symmetric maximum kernel likelihood estimate (smkle). A speedy computational method to compute the smkle based on binning is implemented in a simulation study which shows that the smkle at an optimal bandwidth is decidedly superior in terms of efficiency to the sample mean and other measures of location for heavy-tailed symmetric distributions. An empirical rule and a computational method to estimate this optimal bandwidth are developed and used to construct bootstrap confidence intervals for the population mean. We show that the intervals have approximately nominal coverage and have significantly smaller average width than the corresponding intervals for other measures of location.     

The combined dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood estimators of the location and scale parameters

In this study, two new types of estimators of the location and scale parameters are proposed having high efficiency and robustness; the dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood (DWMML) and the combined dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood (CDWMML) estimators. Three pairs of the DWMML and two pairs of the CDWMML estimators of the location and scale parameters are produced, namely, the DWMML1, the DWMML2 and the DWMML3, and the CDWMML1 and the CDWMML2 estimators, respectively. Based on the simulation results, the DWMML1 estimators of the location and scale parameters are almost fully efficient (under normality) and robust at the same time. The DWMML3 estimators are asymptotically fully efficient and more robust than the M-estimators. The DWMML2 estimators are a compromise between efficiency and robustness. The CDWMML1 and CDWMML2 estimators are jointly very efficient and robust. Particularly, the CDWMML1 and CDWMML2 estimators of the scale parameter are superior compared to the other estimators of the scale parameter.     

The asymptotic properties of the maximum-relevance weighted likelihood estimators

We define the maximum-relevance weighted likelihood estimator (MREWLE) using the relevance-weighted likelihood function introduced by Hu and Zidek (1995). Furthermore, we establish the consistency of the MREWLE under a wide range of conditions. Our results generalize those of Wald (1948) to both nonidentically distributed random variables and unequally weighted likelihoods (when dealing with independent data sets of varying relevance to the inferential problem of interest). Asymptotic normality is also proven. Applying these results to generalized smoothing model is discussed.     

Local likelihood with time-varying additive hazards model

The authors propose the local likelihood method for the time-varying coefficient additive hazards model. They use the Newton-Raphson algorithm to maximize the likelihood into which a local polynomial expansion has been incorporated. They establish the asymptotic properties for the time-varying coefficient estimators and derive explicit expressions for the variance and bias. The authors present simulation results describing the performance of their approach for finite sample sizes. Their numerical comparisons show the stability and efficiency of the local maximum likelihood estimator. They finally illustrate their proposal with data from a laryngeal cancer clinical study.     

Local likelihood density estimation for interval censored data

The authors propose a class of procedures for local likelihood estimation from data that are either interval‐censored or that have been aggregated into bins. One such procedure relies on an algorithm that generalizes existing self‐consistency algorithms by introducing kernel smoothing at each step of the iteration. The entire class of procedures yields estimates that are obtained as solutions of fixed point equations. By discretizing and applying numerical integration, the authors use fixed point theory to study convergence of algorithms for the class. Rapid convergence is effected by the implementation of a local EM algorithm as a global Newton iteration. The latter requires an explicit solution of the local likelihood equations which can be found by using the symbolic Newton‐Raphson algorithm, if necessary.     

Likelihood-based cross-validation score for selecting the smoothing parameter in maximum penalized likelihood estimation

Maximum penalized likelihood estimation is applied in non(semi)-para-metric regression problems, and enables us exploratory identification and diagnostics of nonlinear regression relationships. The smoothing parameter A controls trade-off between the smoothness and the goodness-of-fit of a function. The method of cross-validation is used for selecting A, but the generalized cross-validation, which is based on the squared error criterion, shows bad be¬havior in non-normal distribution and can not often select reasonable A. The purpose of this study is to propose a method which gives more suitable A and to evaluate the performance of it.

A method of simple calculation for the delete-one estimates in the likeli¬hood-based cross-validation (LCV) score is described. A score of similar form to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is also derived. The proposed scores are compared with the ones of standard procedures by using data sets in liter¬atures. Simulations are performed to compare the patterns of selecting A and overall goodness-of-fit and to evaluate the effects of some factors. The LCV-scores by the simple calculation provide good approximation to the exact one if λ is not extremeiy smaii Furthermore the LCV scores by the simple size it possible to select X adaptively They have the effect, of reducing the bias of estimates and provide better performance in the sense of overall goodness-of fit. These scores are useful especially in the case of small sample size and in the case of binary logistic regression.     

Nonparametric Shrinkage Estimation for Aalen's Additive Hazards Model

Aalen's nonparametric additive model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be unspecified functions of time is a flexible alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model when the proportionality assumption is in doubt. In this paper, we incorporate a general linear hypothesis into the estimation of the time‐varying regression coefficients. We combine unrestricted least squares estimators and estimators that are restricted by the linear hypothesis and produce James‐Stein‐type shrinkage estimators of the regression coefficients. We develop the asymptotic joint distribution of such restricted and unrestricted estimators and use this to study the relative performance of the proposed estimators via their integrated asymptotic distributional risks. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to examine the relative performance of the estimators in terms of their integrated mean square errors. We also compare the performance of the proposed estimators with a recently devised LASSO estimator as well as with ridge‐type estimators both via simulations and data on the survival of primary billiary cirhosis patients.     

Bias of maximum likelihood estimators of the response standard deviation in regression

The bias of maximum likelihood estimators of the standard deviation of the response in location/scale regression models is considered. Results are obtained for a very wide family of densities for the response variable. These are used to propose point estimators with improved mean square error properties and to demonstrate the importance of bias correction in statistical inference when samples are moderately small.     

Constrained estimation and likelihood intervals for censored data

The authors propose a reduction technique and versions of the EM algorithm and the vertex exchange method to perform constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the cumulative distribution function given interval censored data. The constrained vertex exchange method can be used in practice to produce likelihood intervals for the cumulative distribution function. In particular, the authors show how to produce a confidence interval with known asymptotic coverage for the survival function given current status data.     

The sliced inverse regression algorithm as a maximum likelihood procedure

It is shown that the sliced inverse regression procedure proposed by Li corresponds to the maximum likelihood estimate where the observations in each slice are samples of multivariate normal distributions with means in an affine manifold.     

Kernel estimation of regression function gradient

Abstract

This paper is focused on kernel estimation of the gradient of a multivariate regression function. Despite the importance of this topic, the progress in this area is rather slow. Our aim is to construct a gradient estimator using the idea of local linear estimator for a regression function. The quality of this estimator is expressed in terms of the Mean Integrated Square Error. We focus on a choice of bandwidth matrix. Further, we present some data-driven methods for its choice and develop a new approach. The performance of presented methods is illustrated using a simulation study and real data example.     

Semi-parametric modelling and likelihood estimation with estimating equations

This paper proposes a semi-parametric modelling and estimating method for analysing censored survival data. The proposed method uses the empirical likelihood function to describe the information in data, and formulates estimating equations to incorporate knowledge of the underlying distribution and regression structure. The method is more flexible than the traditional methods such as the parametric maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), Cox's (1972) proportional hazards model, accelerated life test model, quasi-likelihood (Wedderburn, 1974) and generalized estimating equations (Liang & Zeger, 1986). This paper shows the existence and uniqueness of the proposed semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimates (SMLE) with estimating equations. The method is validated with known cases studied in the literature. Several finite sample simulation and large sample efficiency studies indicate that when the sample size is larger than 100 the SMLE is compatible with the parametric MLE; and in all case studies, the SMLE is about 15% better than the parametric MLE with a mis-specified underlying distribution.     

An operative extension of the likelihood ratio test from fuzzy data

In the present paper we are going to extend the likelihood ratio test to the case in which the available experimental information involves fuzzy imprecision (more precisely, the observable events associated with the random experiment concerning the test may be characterized as fuzzy subsets of the sample space, as intended by Zadeh, 1965). In addition, we will approximate the immediate intractable extension, which is based on Zadeh’s probabilistic definition, by using the minimum inaccuracy principle of estimation from fuzzy data, that has been introduced in previous papers as an operative extension of the maximum likelihood method.     

Asymptotic normality of a weighted integrated squared error of kernel regression estimates with data-dependent bandwidth

Let (X, Y) be a bivariate random vector and let be the regression function of Y on X that has to be estimated from a sample of i.i.d. random vectors (X₁, Y₁),…,(X_n, Y_n) having the same distribution as (X, Y). In the present paper it is shown that the normalized integrated squared error of a kernel estimator with data-driven bandwidth is asymptotically normally distributed.     

A fast algorithm for univariate log‐concave density estimation

A new fast algorithm for computing the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of a univariate log‐concave density is proposed and studied. It is an extension of the constrained Newton method for nonparametric mixture estimation. In each iteration, the newly extended algorithm includes, if necessary, new knots that are located via a special directional derivative function. The algorithm renews the changes of slope at all knots via a quadratically convergent method and removes the knots at which the changes of slope become zero. Theoretically, the characterisation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate is studied and the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the unique maximum likelihood estimate. Numerical studies show that it outperforms other algorithms that are available in the literature. Applications to some real‐world financial data are also given.