Clustering EU Countries by Causes of Death

Population Research and Policy Review - Countries with different mortality patterns face different health and demographic challenges. Knowing a country’s position relative to other countries...     

广东出生人口性别比偏高的现状、原因与对策

本文对广东出生人口性别比偏高的现状与特点进行分析的基础上,就其危害与成因以及应采取的相应对策进行了探讨。作者指出:传宗接代问题、农村养老问题、性别选择、溺弃女婴、瞒报和基层计生工作不到位等是导致出生人口性别比偏高的最主要因素,要促进性别比平衡必须采取有效措施,实行综合治理。     

年龄别死亡率数据异常的检验与讨论

由人口调查结果计算得到的年龄别死亡率 ,一般不能直接应用于人口研究中 ,还需要对原始数据进行检验和修匀。本文提出了用死亡率的差分来检验、判定调查死亡率异常的发生 ,并用它分析第五次人口普查中全国和各省区人口死亡率的数据质量 ,在此基础上 ,讨论了发生异常的原因。     

Cardiovascular and Tuberculosis Mortality: The Contrasting Effects of Changes in Two Causes of Death

Tuberculosis was the largest source of deaths among younger adults, and cardiovascular disease among older adults, in the America of 1900. Decreases in deaths from tuberculosis since 1900 and cardiovascular disease since 1940 explain most of the mortality drops in those age groups over the century. This article, building on previous work by White and Preston, shows the results of increased survival from these two causes on the US population structure. Standard demographic cause-specific mortality calculations are used to generate life tables without deaths from cardiovascular disease or tuberculosis. Then fixed rates for these diseases from early in the century are assumed while all other causes of death are allowed to change as they did historically. Improvements in cardiovascular mortality and tuberculosis produce some seemingly illogical contrasts. More people are alive today because of the decrease in tuberculosis. Yet more deaths from cardiovascular disease have been prevented, and cardiovascular improvements have raised life expectancy more. Lower tuberculosis mortality had virtually no effect on the average age of the population. Lower cardiovascular mortality alone has raised that average more than all twentieth-century causes of improved mortality combined.     

Paradox Revisited: A Further Investigation of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Infant Mortality by Maternal Age

I reexamine the epidemiological paradox of lower overall infant mortality rates in the Mexican-origin population relative to U.S.-born non-Hispanic whites using the 1995–2002 U.S. NCHS linked cohort birth-infant death files. A comparison of infant mortality rates among U.S.-born non-Hispanic white and Mexican-origin mothers by maternal age reveals an infant survival advantage at younger maternal ages when compared with non-Hispanic whites, which is consistent with the Hispanic infant mortality paradox. However, this is accompanied by higher infant mortality at older ages for Mexican-origin women, which is consistent with the weathering framework. These patterns vary by nativity of the mother and do not change when rates are adjusted for risk factors. The relative infant survival disadvantage among Mexican-origin infants born to older mothers may be attributed to differences in the socioeconomic attributes of U.S.-born non-Hispanic white and Mexican-origin women.     

The Influence of Political Jurisdiction,Age, and Sex on Handholding in Public by Same-Sex Couples

Three hundred-forty lesbians and 62 gay males, largely from North America and in partnered relationships, completed online surveys that explored what handholding means to same-sex couples. The data suggest that lesbians in the United States are more likely now than ¼ century ago to hold hands in public spaces. Younger lesbians are more likely to hold hands in public than older lesbians, and Canadian lesbians hold hands more often in public than American lesbians. In response to the question, “What does handholding mean to you?,” 26% of the female respondents from North America overtly referred to public handholding as either a political act or a risky behavior. The number of comments of that nature was similar, regardless of whether the lesbians resided in the United States or Canada. Data suggest that full acceptance of same-sex couples in public spaces has not yet occurred, even in jurisdictions where same-sex couples have the same legal rights as heterosexual couples. Although the sample size for males was too small to analyze the influence of age or political jurisdiction on public handholding, males, in general, were significantly less likely than females to view handholding as a means of staying “connected” with their partners.     

中国出生性别比失调问题的原因及其改善

人口学界一直密切关注中国出生性别比失调问题,对导致这一问题的原因也进行了广泛的讨论。结合近年来我国出生性别比失调问题存在的不同认识和争论,借助于阿尔瓦罗.洛佩兹弱遍历性理论和贝克尔生育选择成本效用模型的分析框架,本文试图从微观层面分析中国出生性别比的变动趋势及变动原因。通过对1940-2010年中国出生性别比数据变动趋势的实证分析以及变动原因的解释,本文得出结论:中国现行计划生育政策与出生性别比失调间不存在直接因果关系;而要改善中国出生性别比失调的现状,改变农民、农村、农业的经济社会条件,增强农民的创新能力,推动农村及城镇贫困家庭从生产性生育偏好向享乐式生育偏好的转变是根本途径。     

三峡移民迁移满意度的转变及其根源

三峡移民在搬迁到新迁入地后,对迁移的总体评价态度有一个从较高的满意度向较低的满意度过渡的转变。本文采用“同期群”研究方法,通过对三峡移民评价态度影响因素的回归分析,说明了三峡移民在安置地的适应过程大致可以分为三个阶段,即角色标签阶段、角色学习阶段、角色同化与比较阶段。而角色同化和比较阶段中,三峡移民的横向比较引起的相对剥夺感是三峡移民满意度变低的主要原因。     

The Effects of Death Reminders on Sex Differences in Prejudice Toward Gay Men and Lesbians

Terror management research shows that death reminders (mortality salience) increase prejudice toward worldview violators. Two studies investigated whether death reminders exacerbated differences in heterosexual men's and women's reports of sexual prejudice (negative attitudes based on sexual orientation). Results showed that following death reminders, sex differences in anti-gay discrimination and affective prejudice toward gay men (but not toward lesbians) were larger, and that these increased sex differences were mediated by gender role beliefs. The current studies suggest that researchers may attenuate the effects of death reminders by lessening the perceived worldview violation in addition to alleviating the existential terror of death.     

Trends in Causes of Death in Low‐Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections

This study examines the potential role that information about trends in causes of death could have in improving projections of mortality in low‐mortality countries. The article first summarizes overall trends in mortality by cause since the middle of the twentieth century. Special attention is given to the crucial impact of the smoking epidemic on mortality and on cause‐of‐death patterns. The article then discusses the implications for projections and reaches two conclusions. First, mortality projections can be improved by taking into account the distorting effects of smoking. Mortality attributable to smoking has risen in the past but has now leveled off or declined, thus boosting improvements in life expectancy. Second, making cause‐specific projections is not likely to be helpful. Trends in specific medical causes of death have exhibited discontinuities in the past, and future trends are therefore difficult to predict.     

用小学入学人数检验"五普"低龄组的人口漏报和性别比

用小学入学人数检验"五普"低年龄组的人口数据,发现"五普"17岁以下年龄组人口净漏报2 042.03万,以此调整的2000年"五普"总人数在125 315万～126 087万之间,比公布的总人数少496万～1 268万,其净漏报人数大约为在804万～1 576万,净漏报率为0.65%～1.27%.同时得出"五普"0～4岁年龄组的性别比为114左右.     

教育如何影响农村劳动力转移--基于年龄与世代效应的分析

本研究分析了教育是如何影响农村劳动力在纯务农、兼业和纯务工之间的就业选择,以及该选择随年龄增长和世代更替的演变趋势。研究发现,教育在总体上促进了非农就业,但在不同世代的生命历程中有着不尽相同的作用机制。在较早出生的世代中,教育对兼业和纯务工的促进作用是一致的。但在晚近出生的世代中,更高的教育水平对纯务工就业有着非常显著的影响,而对兼业选择影响甚微。在老一代农民中,教育对兼业和纯务工的促进作用随年龄增长而有所减弱;而在新一代农民中,教育对纯务工的促进作用随着年龄增长而迅速加强,呈现教育的积累性优势。此外,老一代农民的生命历程中有一个从务工到务农的回归;新一代农民向非农行业转移则呈现不可逆的趋势,教育对此起到了促进作用。     

中国三代直系家庭变迁:年龄、时期、队列视角的观察

发掘中国社会特有的家庭结构变迁模式是理解中国家庭变动特征的关键,也是许多研究所关注的焦点。本研究基于9期的中国营养追踪调查(1989-2011)数据,利用分层交叉年龄、时期和队列效应模型观察我国三代直系家庭在三个时间维度上的演变趋势。研究发现在年龄维度上婴幼儿以及老年阶段仍然拥有较高的三代直系家庭比例,这体现了直系家庭在抚幼和养老方面发挥的重要功能。在时期维度上三代直系家庭比例并没有展示出显著的变化趋势。相较于时期,嵌入社会变迁中的队列趋势是三代直系家庭结构变迁更为重要的驱动力。队列的三代直系家庭比例在整体上呈现出U型趋势,较老的队列处于直系家庭的可能性逐渐下降,而幼儿队列处于直系家庭的可能性不断上升。该趋势代表了老龄群体的"去直系化"与幼儿群体的"直系化"倾向。研究结果表明,在私人领域,经济的发展和观念的转变这些现代化因素仍然在促成家庭的小型化;在公共领域由于家庭职能(抚幼和养老)在向社会职能转变过程中的波折与分化,个体家庭会调整结构形态以应对不同阶段社会资源与风险的变化,从而塑造出了我国三代直系家庭结构的变迁模式。这不仅仅代表了传统和现代的博弈与融合,更是代表了一种家庭的实用主义倾向。     

老年人口死亡概率时代变迁与老年定义的 重新思考

通过对1982-2010年间我国老年人口年龄别死亡概率的考察显示,近30年来我国老年人口的死亡概率随时间推移而不断降低,表明我国老年群体的健康状况和年龄内涵正在发生改变.与此同时,经济社会环境的变化和科学技术的发展极大地改变了老年人口的生活生产方式,也提供了更多的参与经济社会活动的能力与机会,从而使得后世代的老年人往往比前世代的老年人"更健康"、"更年轻",因此,有必要重新思考对老年人的传统定义.此外,中国老年人口死亡概率的变化也表现出明显的性别差异、地区差异以及与发达国家的差距,说明对中国来讲,要完成死亡模式的根本转化仍有很长的路要走.在充分认识这些差异性的基础上重新定义老年,将使得我们对老龄社会有一个全新的认识,也将有助于我们重构未来常态化老龄社会的公共政策体系.     

The Determinants of Neighborhood Satisfaction: Racial Proxy Revisited

Understanding the factors that drive individuals’ residential preferences is a critical issue in the study of racial segregation. An important debate within this field is whether individuals—especially whites—prefer to live in predominantly white neighborhoods because they wish to avoid the social problems that may be more likely to occur in predominantly black neighborhoods (i.e., the racial proxy hypothesis) or because of racial factors that go beyond these social class–related characteristics. Through a multilevel analysis of data from the 2004–2005 Chicago Area Study and several administrative sources, we assess the extent to which the racial proxy hypothesis describes neighborhood satisfaction among whites, African Americans, and Latinos living across a broad range of neighborhood contexts. The racial proxy perspective applies weakly to whites’ satisfaction: whites report less satisfaction in neighborhoods with more minority residents, and only some of their dissatisfaction can be attributed to local social characteristics. The racial proxy hypothesis applies more strongly to blacks’ and Latinos’ satisfaction. In some cases, especially for Latinos, higher levels of satisfaction in integrated neighborhoods can largely be attributed to the fact that these places have better socioeconomic conditions and fewer social problems than predominantly minority communities. At the same time, effects of racial/ethnic composition persist in unique and somewhat divergent ways for blacks and Latinos, supporting the assertion that racial composition matters, above and beyond its relation to social class. Taken together, these findings suggest that individuals balance both socioeconomic and race-related concerns in their residential preferences.     

性别偏好视角下的中国人口转变模式分析

文章基于传统的人口转变理论,从生育空间的三维性出发,提出了性别偏好视角下的中国人口转变模式。利用全国和分省的总和生育率及出生人口性别比数据进行验证,实证结果表明中国人口转变中存在带有性别偏好的人口转变模式:出生人口性别比伴随生育水平和性别偏好的动态变化而呈现出上升、高位徘徊的阶段特征和下降的趋势,这种变动趋势又因生育空间的区域差异呈现出4种区域类型。     

The HMS African Revisited: The Royal Navy and the Homosexual Community

The article contains both a survey of writings on homosexuality in military organizations since the early 1970s, and a reexamination of the homoerotic involvements on the Royal Navy's HMS Africaine from 1811 to 1815. The Africaine affair, first studied by Arthur N. Gilbert in 1974, involved a sexually active coterie on board the ship that included a large segment of the crewmembers. Analytical structures for studying all-male sexuality 30 years ago have gradually been superseded by new theoretical paradigms, and these more recently developed approaches can be used effectively to provide a greater understanding of the events that led to a series of courts martial and the hanging of four of the Africaine's men in 1816.     

Mortality Increase in Late-Middle and Early-Old Age: Heterogeneity in Death Processes as a New Explanation

Deviations from the Gompertz law of exponential mortality increases in late-middle and early-old age are commonly neglected in overall mortality analyses. In this study, we examined mortality increase patterns between ages 40 and 85 in 16 low-mortality countries and demonstrated sex differences in these patterns, which also changed across period and cohort. These results suggest that the interaction between aging and death is more complicated than what is usually assumed from the Gompertz law and also challenge existing biodemographic hypotheses about the origin and mechanisms of sex differences in mortality. We propose a two-mortality model that explains these patterns as the change in the composition of intrinsic and extrinsic death rates with age. We show that the age pattern of overall mortality and the population heterogeneity therein are possibly generated by multiple dynamics specified by a two-mortality model instead of a uniform process throughout most adult ages.     

Changing Residence: Comparative Perspectives on its Relationship to Age,Sex, and Marital Status

Change of usual dwelling unit (house, flat, etc.) during a fixed period of time is the common denominator to measuring the amount of spatial mobility within different countries. Around 1980 or 1981, the percentage of population who moved from one dwelling unit to another in one year was over 19 per cent in New Zealand, 17–18 per cent in the United States, Canada, and Australia, 9–10 per cent in Great Britain, Sweden, Japan and France, 7–8 per cent in the Netherlands and Belgium, and 6 per cent in Ireland. Evaluation of ‘age schedules’ of local and non-local movement reveals especially high mobility among U.S. children, and a narrowing of mobility differences for older people between countries, particularly over local distances. Life-table techniques help to quantify the amount of mobility associated with different marital statuses, and bring into focus some of the sequelae of these statuses for men and women in different countries.     

Sex Selection for Daughters: Demographic Consequences of Female-Biased Sex Ratios

Population Research and Policy Review - Modern fertility techniques allow parents to carry out preimplantation sex selection. Sex selection for non-medical purposes is legal in many high-income...