拉动经济增长的新兴消费产业研究——以老龄产业为例

中国三十年来的经济发展表明,在拉动中国经济增长的三种动力中对外出口会随国际形势的变化而呈现出不确定性与不可控性,政府投资仅仅是出口与消费受阻时所采取的权宜之计,具有波动性、滞后性特征,而基于消费需求尤其是老年消费需求基础上发展起来的老龄产业具有较高的稳定性和持久性,它能够促进生产力的持续发展,为国民经济的发展提供持久动力。所以,要从扩大消费内需入手,就必需大力发展以物质和服务消费为导向的老龄消费产业,使之成为推动中国经济发展的战略选择与重要增长极。     

Diet,mortality and life expectancy: a cross national analysis

"There are numerous reasons why mortality and life expectancy vary between countries. Epidemiological studies seem to indicate that dietary variations may be among them. A sample of 51 countries studied with data from the International Comparisons Project and other sources, shows that after controlling for nutrient intake, consumption of medical goods and services, income distribution, weather, and literacy, countries with more meat and poultry in their diet have lower life expectancies after age five. The results for infant mortality and child death between one and five indicate that a more animal-intensive diet may be actually beneficial, especially if fish consumption is increased and meat and poultry consumption reduced."     

Diet,mortality and life expectancy A cross national analysis

There are numerous reasons why mortality and life expectancy vary between countries. Epidemiological studies seem to indicate that dictary variations may be among them. A sample of 51 countries studied with data from the International Comparisons Project and other sources, shows that after controlling for nutrient intake, consumption of medical goods and services, income distribution, weather, and literacy, countries with more meat and poultry in their diet have lower life expectancies after age five. The results for infant mortality and child death between one and five indicate that a more animal-intensive diet may be actually be beneficial, especially if fish consumption is increased and meat and poultry consumption reduced.I thank Jere Behrman, David Crawford, Anil Deolalikar, the Managing Editor, two anonymous referees, and especially Samuel Preston for valuable comments, and Alan Heston and Robert Summers for being generous with their time and their data. Financial support was provided by a Compton Foundation Fellowship. All errors remain my responsibility.     

Restructuring of the US Meat Processing Industry and New Hispanic Migrant Destinations

Findings from the 2000 US Census indicate high rates of Hispanic population increase beyond urban areas and traditional immigrant‐receiving states. The diversity of new destinations raises questions about forces attracting migrants to rural areas and links between economic structural change and Hispanic population growth. Our conceptual framework applies dual labor market theory to the meat processing industry, a sector whose growing Hispanic labor force offers an illustrative case study for analyzing how labor demand influences demographic change. We document the industry's consolidation, concentration, increased demand for low‐skilled labor, and changing labor force composition over three decades. We then position meat processing within a broader analysis that models nonmetropolitan county Hispanic population growth between 1980 and 2000 as a function of changes in industrial sector employment share and nonmetro county economic and demographic indicators. We find that growth in meat processing employment exhibits the largest positive coefficient increase in nonmetro Hispanic population growth over two decades and the largest impact of all sectors by 2000.     

Energy consumption patterns in the process of China’s urbanization

Urbanization has transformed daily lives and industrial production in China. We investigate the effects of this process on Chinese energy consumption patterns. Three energy-consuming sectors intricately associated with urbanization are identified and analyzed: residential households, transportation, and the building materials industry. Urbanization has profoundly affected each; moreover, the latter two are high energy consumption and potentially high carbon producing. We estimate energy consumption attributable to each sector to quantitatively evaluate their impacts on societal transition. Transportation and the production of building materials are identified as the most significant linkages from urbanization to energy consumption. Strikingly, despite the large increase in the proportion of the population that is urban, the share of urban energy consumption, as estimated here, in total energy consumption has remained stable. This suggests that economic growth, in the form of the production of goods for export and domestic consumption, is the most important driver of energy demand in China.     

External Shocks,Household Consumption and Fertility in Indonesia

This paper examines the impact of idiosyncratic income shocks on household consumption, educational expenditure and fertility in Indonesia, and assesses whether the investment in human capital of children and fertility are used to smooth household consumption. Using four different kinds of self-reported economic hardships, our findings indicate that coping mechanisms are rather efficient for Indonesian households that perceive an economic hardship. Only in case of unemployment do we find a significant decrease in consumption spending and educational expenditure while fertility increases. These results indicate that households that perceive an unemployment shock use children as a means for smoothing consumption. Regarding the death of a household member or natural disaster we find that consumption per person even increases. These results are consistent with the argument that coping mechanisms even over-compensate the actual consumption loss due to an economic hardship. One important lesson from our findings is that different types of income shock may lead to different economic and demographic behavioral adjustments and therefore require specific targeted social insurance programs.     

Overpopulation, Sustainable Development, and Security: Developing an Integrated Strategy

This paper proposes a symposium on overpopulation, sustainable development, and security. These issues are usually treated separately by politicians and the public, but addressing them intelligently requires seeing the interconnections. Many scientists warn that growing human numbers and consumption are undermining the carrying capacity of the Earth. Unfortunately, their advice has not been heeded as it is perceived as being contrary to some prevailing economic and social interests. This symposium would draw together some of the leading minds on the population/resource issue for the purpose of initiating a process to bridge the gap between scientific concerns and public policy.     

Income,Consumption, and Poverty

Social Indicators Research - This article examines changes in economic welfare within Korea in terms of income, consumption, and poverty. Analyses of government statistics reveal that it has been...     

Intergenerational transfers in US county-level CO2 emissions, 2007

Research has shown that increases in carbon emissions and resulting climate change are not driven by population size alone, but also associated with industrialization, urbanization, and economic development. Further, industrialization and development may, in part, be driven by changing demographic structure, and in particular the process of population aging. Fluctuations in age composition shape aggregate production and consumption. Viewed through this lens, the carbon dioxide emissions of an analytical unit (county, province, state, nation) can be considered a product of its age composition. This analysis tests several demographic theories of age-specific production and consumption on US county-level carbon dioxide emissions. Using a modified STIRPAT framework, econometric estimates identify a positive correlation between county-level labor force participation and total carbon dioxide emissions. These effects are a result of general economic activity as opposed to growth only in energy intensive industrial sectors, a relationship that is widely hypothesized but under-developed in carbon emission estimates. In addition, results show larger households are associated with lower aggregate emissions, confirming the hypothesis that areas of declining household size will experience higher future emissions. In general, this research demonstrates the importance of adding nuance to emission estimates by integrating demographic dimensions beyond population size and growth.     

Money value of consumption and income of rural families: Two measures of economic status

In this study a measure of economic status, money value of consumption, is defined and its relationship to income is examined using data collected from 628 U.S. rural families and 1170 North Carolina rural families. Findings suggest that for rural families money value of consumption is linearly related to income, that the variance of money value of consumption is proportional to income and that money value of consumption is more equally distributed than income. Money value of consumption is more closely related to income for one-and four-or-more-person families than for two-or-three-person families. A comparison of how the two measures (money value of comsumption and income) rank rural families by consumption status indicates that income is most likely to rank families inaccurately at very low and very high levels of income. Findings should assist in the appropriate interpretation of income when it is used as a proxy for consumption.     

城镇化进程中人口因素对水资源消耗的驱动作用分析——以太湖流域为例

基于IPAT模型及对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解法构建了包括人口规模、城镇化水平和城乡居民生活用水强度等人口因素在内的水资源消耗驱动因素模型,该模型从人口、经济角度全面探讨了水资源消耗的驱动因素并作了系统的量化。运用该模型研究太湖流域水资源消耗变化的驱动因素,分析结果表明:经济规模是影响太湖流域用水变化的主导因素;产业结构和产业用水强度对水资源消耗的增加起到抑制作用,并且产业用水强度对水资源消耗增长的抑制效应大于产业结构;人口规模对水资源消耗的增长具有显著影响;城镇化水平和城乡居民生活用水强度的历史驱动贡献率相对较小,但驱动力巨大,应予以足够重视。通过优化产业结构,以及降低单位GDP耗水量,提高水资源利用效率能够有效降低太湖流域水资源消耗。     

人口老龄化影响区域经济发展的作用机理与路径研究

人口老龄化是21世纪人类社会共同面对的重大现实问题,它与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性,因为人口老龄化对区域经济发展中的生产和消费等环节均有重要影响。因此,本文从人口的生产属性和消费属性出发,以经济增长理论和国民收入决定理论为基础,分析了人口老龄化影响区域经济发展的作用机理和路径,从而为制定合理的区域经济发展政策和人口发展政策提供相应的理论基础和实践依据。     

人口老龄化的区域经济效应分析——基于新古典经济增长模型

人口老龄化与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性。因为生产和消费是区域经济发展中的重要环节,而人口老龄化对生产和消费均有影响,也就必然会影响区域经济的发展。因此,本文首先在梳理国内外相关研究的基础上提出人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应——正效应和负效应;然后以新古典经济增长模型为基础,尝试引入人口老龄化因素从而对该模型进行扩展,分析得到的结论是:①进一步验证了人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应的存在;②不同的区域,人口老龄化程度不同,人口再生产所处于的发展阶段不同,人口老龄化对区域经济发展的经济影响程度,即其正效应和负效应之和也就不尽相同,但存在的一个基本规律是,人口老龄化程度越高,其负效应就越大,其对区域经济发展的减速效应也就越明显。     

Is Subjective Well-Being of Concern to Potential Migrants from Latin America?

This paper examines the effect of life satisfaction on intention to migrate abroad using survey data on 18 Latin American countries. Three key findings emerge that support life satisfaction as a significant driver of intention to migrate abroad. First, the findings suggest that reporting high life satisfaction is negatively associated with intention to migrate abroad controlling for education and other background factors. Second, I find a consistently negative and significant effect of the interaction between high life satisfaction and education suggesting that more educated individuals reporting high life satisfaction are less likely to consider migrating abroad as compared to more educated individuals reporting low life satisfaction. And third, even after controlling for consumption and relative deprivation the negative effect of the high life satisfaction and education interaction term on intention to migrate abroad remains statistically significant suggesting that international migration decisions of those with higher education are not solely driven by economic motives. In addition, I find that those who are highly educated (college and higher) are more likely to consider migrating abroad, holding life satisfaction, consumption, and relative deprivation constant, mainly due to weak economic outlook of and low wages in the home country.     

Population,resources, environment: an uncertain future

This issue analyzes the economic and environmental consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries (LDC), the population decline in developed countries, the limits that life on a finite planet impose on economic and demographic expansion and progress, and the proper governmental response to promote the welfare of its current and future citizens. The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about direct causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in LDC, thus contributing to degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of land, water, and nonhuman species on which humans depend. Demands of the rich industrial countries have also generated environmental pressures and have been foremost in consumption of the nonrenewable resources of fossil fuels, metals, and nonmetallic minerals. On the other hand, population and economic growth have also stimulated technological and management changes that help supply and use resources more effectively. Wide variations in the possible ultimate size of world population and accelerating technological change make future interrelationships of population, resources, and the environment uncertain as well as complex. Those interrelationships are mediated largely by government policies. Responsible governments can bring about a sustainable balance in the population/resource/environment equation by adopting population and development policies that experience has shown could reduce future population numbers in LDC below the additional 5 billion indicated in current UN medium projections. This coupled with proven management programs in both LDC and developed countries could brake and reverse the depletion and degradation of natural resources.     

Ethnic and religious differentials in Bulgarian mortality, 1993-98

We investigated ethnic/religious mortality differentials in Bulgaria during the 1990s. The analyses employed a unique longitudinal data-set covering the entire population of Bulgaria from the census of 1992 until 1998. The mortality of Roma is very high compared to all other ethnic/religious groups. The excess applies to nearly every cause of death examined and is not entirely explained by the adverse location of Roma on social and economic variables. For young men, Muslim mortality is substantially lower than that of non-Muslims when socio-economic differences are controlled. An analysis of causes of death suggests that lower consumption of alcohol may contribute to this 'Muslim paradox'. For older Turkish women, a significant mortality disadvantage remains after controls are imposed. Suicide mortality is lower for Muslims than for Christian groups of the same ethnicity. Consistent with deteriorating economic conditions over the study period, mortality was rising, particularly for women.     

Does Tourism Consumption Behaviour Mirror Differences in Living Standards?

Based on the theoretical foundation of well-being measurement, the study explores differences in living standards by analysing the distribution of tourism expenditure. A mixture of regression models is used to explore the heterogeneity in tourism consumption by identifying groups of families with similar tourism consumption behaviour as a function of certain socio-demographic and economic factors. The empirical analysis, performed on Italian expenditure data, suggests that there are three different patterns of consumption behaviour conditional to the socio-demographic and economic covariates in the tourism market and that differences in tourism consumption between groups of households mirror inequalities in living standards.     

Relative Economic Position and Subjective Well-Being in a Poor Society: Does Relative Position Indicator Matter?

Concern for relative income (or status in general) may have important implications for poverty and individual well-being. This paper examines the impact of relative economic position on individual’s level of well-being among poor communities in rural Ethiopia. The analysis uses a self-reported measure of overall life-evaluation as a measure of individual well-being. Despite the fact that well-being is multidimensional, the impact of non-money metric measures of relative economic position on individual well-being has not been given a lot of attention in the literature. In this study, relative economic position is measured using consumption data, asset index, and respondent’s own perception of relative wealth. The asset index captures the non-monetary dimensions of economic welfare, including education, physical assets, and social capital. We use data from the 2004 and 2009 waves of the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey and employ a multilevel modelling technique to account for individual and group level heterogeneity in our empirical analysis. We find no significant relationship between individual well-being and relative economic position measured with in consumption terms. In contrast, we do find a significant negative impact of relative position on individual well-being when we use asset indices and respondent’s own perception of relative wealth to measure relative economic position. Our findings suggest that when individuals compare themselves with others, they evaluate various aspects of their life, including their financial conditions, asset holdings, and social relations, which are hardly captured by consumption or income data in many poor countries.     

A macrodynamic analysis of changes in mortality indexes in the United States, 1946–75: Some preliminary results

This paper extends earlier research by Brenner and by Land and Felson on the specification and estimation of macrodynamic structural-equation models to explain changes in American mortality indexes as a function of exogenous changes in societal conditions (social, demographic, economic, and health care). After reviewing the record of annual changes in several general and cause — specific mortality indexes for the post-World War II United States, patterns of temporal covariation in the indexes are discussed and some tentative structural-equation models are described. Among other findings, these models indicate: (1) that changes in the age structure of the American population have substantial impacts on changes in mortality rates for diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems as well as on deaths due to cirrhosis of the liver, accidents, and violence; (2) that the infective and parasitic diseases mortality rate is more closely related to per capita public health expenditures than to improvements in the general level of living in this post — war period; (3) that the business cycle, as indexed by the unemployment rate, has significant impacts on the cardiovascular, accident, and violence mortality rates; (4) that Brenner's finding of a positive association of an increase in the unemployment rate with an increase in cardiovascular diseases mortality two to three years later is partially mediated by an increase in per capita cigarette consumption during the economic recovery following a recession; (5) that an increase in the per capita level of cigarette consumption increases the respiratory systems mortality rate; (6) that both the general and the respiratory neoplasms mortality rates are more strongly affected by long-term moving averages of annual per capita levels of cigarette consumption than by single-years levels; (7) that the level of the degenerative diseases mortality rate is positively affected by an increase in per capita liquor consumption and negatively affected by an increase in health care utilization; (8) that the percentage of all vehicles traveling on highways at high speed is the exposure index most closely associated (of several that were studied) to the motor vehicle accident mortality rate; (9) that the levels of the maternal and infant mortality rates are positively related to an increase in the fertility rate (exposure) and negatively related to those advances in health care services associated with hospital births; (10) that the accuracy with which short-term changes in the crude mortality rate can be predicted from a knowledge of cause-specific mortality rates and how the latter are affected by societal conditions is effectively limited by the degree of accuracy of predictions of the respiratory diseases mortality rate because of its volatile influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis component; and (11) that short-term changes in the life expectancy index can be somewhat more accurately predicted from such knowledge. Although most of these relationships have been noted before in mortality studies, only a small fraction have been studied in a macrodynamic structural-equation models context. These findings thus constitute a baseline of statistical evidence which can be explored in future research.     

人口增长和消费模式对海洋渔业资源影响的实证分析——以舟山为例

现有研究文献显示,人口增长和消费变化是影响海洋渔业资源变化的重要动因。以舟山为例,在建立构建人口、消费与海洋渔业资源相关关系的理论框架基础上,动态地分析舟山人口增长和消费模式转换是如何影响其海洋渔业资源的。实证研究表明:①由收入水平提高所引起的消费方式转换比人口规模更直接地影响海洋渔业资源的动态变化;②尽管捕捞量持续增加,但由于捕捞强度的迅速提高,单位捕捞努力渔获量在显著下降,预示着舟山渔场渔业资源的逐渐衰减;③影响海洋渔业资源变化的动因不仅包括人口增长和消费模式变化,同时还要考虑经济增长模式、市场价格、政策引导以及当地居民行为等因素。