Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

Multi-scale Analysis of Collaborative National Forest Planning Contexts in the Rural US Mountain West

This research analyzes regional and sub-regional contexts of the United States Mountain West where community-based forms of national forest planning are emerging to ameliorate conflict related to New West rural transformations characterized by high population growth and increasing service and amenity-based economies. A county-level typology is developed using cluster techniques applied to demographic, economic, and environmental indicators and a novel measure of spatial accessibility to forest lands. Results identify three types of contexts with differential characterestics relevant to community-based forest planning. A local scale analysis compares characteristics for counties surrounding a national forest with an ongoing community-based collaboration and its participant characteristics. Results show some key differences between participants and their ambient contexts as well as local-scale contextual heterogeneity. A framework for incorporating multi-scale data and analyses to address current research needs for the emergent topic of community-based collaboration is presented.Please address correspondence to Thomas W. Crawford, Department of Geography, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA; crawfordt@mail.ecu.edu     

The effects of migrant remittances on population–environment dynamics in migrant origin areas: international migration, fertility, and consumption in highland Guatemala

International migration impacts origin regions in many ways. As examples, remittances from distant migrants may alter consumption patterns within sending communities, while exposure to different cultural norms may alter other behaviors. This paper combines these insights to offer a unique lens on migration’s environmental impact. From an environmental perspective, we ask the following question: is the likely rise in consumption brought about by remittances counterbalanced by a reduction in fertility in migrant households following exposure to lower fertility cultures? Based on ethnographic case studies in two western highland Guatemalan communities, we argue that the near-term rise in consumption due to remittances is not counterbalanced by rapid decline in migrant household fertility. However, over time, the environmental cost of consumption may be mitigated at the community level through diffusion of contraception and family planning norms yielding lower family size.     

Population growth,changing agricultural practices,and environmental degradation in Zaire

This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run.     

Multidimensional Analysis of Water Poverty and Subjective Well-Being: A Case Study on Local Household Variation in Faisalabad,Pakistan

Water poverty is difficult to evaluate because it is multidimensional. It is determined not only by the availability of water sources but also whether communities have adequate access to clean, uncontaminated water. It is also dependent on the resource needs of those using the water. Under the premise that water scarcity is multidimensional, we use a Water Poverty Index approach using Principal Component Analysis to develop an index at the household level in 10 villages in one large farming community to examine each household’s subjective view of well being as a result of water poverty. This paper reviews how water resources endowments and depletion because of indiscriminate disposal of untreated industrial wastewater, household sewage and climate change are posing serious threats to water poverty at the household level in developing agrarian economies like Pakistan. We report from our results that both the perceived level of pollution and the proximity to clean and polluted water sources matter significantly for subjective well-being in rural households of Pakistan. The villages closer to polluted water sources are unhappier while the villages, which have better access to fresh water, have relatively higher subjective well-being. A strong implementation of environmental protection measures and regional strategies are suggested to alleviate water poverty and increase subjective well-being in local communities.     

Rurality and well-being during the middle years of life

Popular stereotypes and theorizing by social scientists suggest that rural people are more satisfied with their communities and happier with their life situations than are their nonrural counterparts. This enhanced well-being is believed to result at least partly from the presence of kinship and friendship ties in the local community and the adherence to traditional religious beliefs. Data from a panel study of nearly 1200 middle aged persons from Pennsylvania surveyed in 1971 and 1984 provided indices of community satisfaction and happiness. When income was controlled, country residents expressed slightly higher levels of community satisfaction than did town or urban dwellers in both time periods. Happiness was not related to residence location. Income was a relatively more important predictor of community satisfaction and happiness among urban than among country residents, while number of friends was relatively more important for rural residents. Number of kin living nearby and adherence to traditional religious beliefs were not related to well-being regardless of residence location.     

Population density,urban centrality,and agricultural intensification in Jordan

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.     

Environmentalism and Contraceptive Use: How people in less developed settings approach environmental issues

The rise in environmental concerns around the globe has prompted increasing research on the links between such concerns and behavior. However, most studies have focused on pro-environmental behaviors in affluent western societies, such as willingness to pay for environmental protection, pro-environmental political actions, and consumption patterns. Using multiple data sets from the Chitwan Valley Family Study in Nepal, this paper examines the impact of environmental perceptions on contraceptive use in a rural agricultural setting. The results of our analyses show that perceptions about certain aspects of the environment are related to individuals' subsequent use of contraceptives. Specifically, those individuals who think that their environment—agricultural productivity—has deteriorated are more likely to use contraceptives than those who think that their environment has improved or has remained about the same. This study thus provides a first step in our understanding of the relationships between environmental perceptions and fertility behavior in a less developed setting. Paul Mohai is Professor in The School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan.     

Tracing the Density Impulse in Rural Settlement Systems: A Quantitative Analysis of the Factors Underlying Rural Population Density Across South-Eastern Australia, 1981–2001

Rural population density has a very significant independent influence over important socio-economic and demographic characteristics of developed world rural communities. Additionally, it is a fundamental variable in public policy and planning, both expressing and influencing the relative cost-efficiency of servicing populations. Yet density is itself produced by more fundamental qualities (e.g. environmental resources, nature and time of colonisation) which may themselves change over time. Treating rural population density as a dependent variable produced by a wide variety of factors, we build and test two causal models that attempt to explain the observed pattern of rural densities across south-eastern Australia (n = 414 communities). We distinguish between a “productivist” model—applicable for most of white Australia’s history—and a consumptionist model that takes account of recent counter-urbanisation trends. These models are applied to the entire study area and, in recognition of the study area’s internal heterogeneity, to five clusters of communities. In the drier inland and remoter zones, the productivist model exhibits the greatest explanatory power, while in the more accessible and well-watered “multifunctional” zones, an expanded model that incorporates a measure of “amenity” produces the best results. The research finds that simple environmental factors, coupled with relative location within the national space economy, act as dominant controls over rural population density in early 21st century Australia.

Undercounting Urban Residents in Bolivia: A Small-Area Study of Census-Driven Migration

Employing a small-area study approach in a single urban area in Bolivia, a country with high rates of internal circular migration, we describe how, in the months before the November 2012 census, local leaders and neighbors, concerned with maximizing the per capita resources their residential districts and rural communities could claim from central government, threatened to employ sanctions against absent individuals whom they judged to be regular residents. We use three types of data—a two-wave household survey, data from vehicle toll booths, and photographic logs of a minibus station—to show how these threats generated substantial movement out of the urban area, leading to an urban undercount of roughly 20 % of prime-age adults and 50 % of those aged at least 50. More generally, we argue that these data highlight how local leaders’ increasingly sophisticated attempts to shape data extend beyond the well-known examples from autocratic states. This is driven by a combination of intensive urban–rural connections, leaders’ greater democratic accountability to local voters, increasing fiscal transparency at the national level, increasing fiscal accountability of governments to transnational neoliberal institutions pushing “transparency” and “evidence-based” policy, and more overt talk about “resource sharing” that is rooted in an evidence-based planning paradigm. Since these structural conditions exist in many other developing countries, the possibility of equivalent urban undercounts in forthcoming censuses needs to be anticipated and avoided.     

The Bangladesh fertility decline: an interpretation

The claim has been made, notably in a 1994 World Bank report, that the Bangladesh fertility decline shows that efficient national family planning programs can achieve major fertility declines even in countries that are very poor, and even if females have a low status and significant socioeconomic change has not occurred. This article challenges this claim on the grounds that Bangladesh did experience major social and economic change, real and perceived, over the last two decades. This proposition is supported by official data and by findings of the authors' 1997 field study in rural southeast Bangladesh. That study demonstrates that most Bangladeshis believe that conditions are very different from the situation a generation ago and that on balance there has been improvement. Most also believe that more decisions must now be made by individuals, and these include decisions to have fewer children. In helping to achieve these new fertility aims, however, the services provided by the family planning program constituted an important input.     

Exposure,Resistance and Life Expectancy: Disease and Death During the Economic Development of Japan, 1900–1960

By 1900 Japan was still extremely poor, rural and predominantly agrarian: but it had achieved effective mortality parity with the more economically advanced and/or wealthier countries of Western Europe. As standards of living rose, life expectancy remained relatively stagnant until the end of World War II. Subsequently, in spite of the economy being still partially crippled by wartime destruction, life expectancy in Japan increased very rapidly. The analysis of these puzzling trends is undertaken by means of an historical model of mortality change in which life expectancy is interpreted as the function of both the relative overall resistance of the population to disease, and the degree to which it was protected from exposure to the leading causes of death. It is argued that the early and late Japanese achievement of relatively high life expectancy at relatively low levels of income rested on the government's efficient delivery of a very high level of protection from exposure to disease. The middle period, 1910 to 1940, represented a relative failure of protection due to the concentration of financial resources on the military sector; a failure which better diets etc. could not effectively counter. The post-war period involved a return to higher levels of investment in public health during a period of technological progress and structural shifts which enhanced the efficiency of such investment.     

Urban influences on farmland use in New York State

This article assesses the relationship between demographic change and structural adjustments in agriculture. A number of demographic and economic analyses have posited an inverse relationship between post-1950 exurban population growth and agricultural viability, especially in the Northeast Region of the USA. To test this hypothesis, a multivariate model of percent change in county land in farms over the period 1950–1987 is estimated, and the findings only partially support the population hypothesis. Estimation results indicate that the effect of core metropolitan status is significant, but that the effects of rural population change, rural nonfarm population change, and county population deconcentration are not. The analysis demonstrates that maintenance of land in farm use largely depends upon economic forces that are national and regional in scope, and almost exclusively outside the purview of state and local farmland protection programs.     

Land cover change and fertility in West-Central Africa: rural livelihoods and the vicious circle model

The vicious circle argument, rooted in a neo-Malthusian tradition, states that resource scarcity increases the demand for child labor and leads to higher fertility. The rural livelihood framework, on the other hand, contends that households employ multiple strategies, only one of which involves adjusting their fertility levels as a response to environmental pressures. This study provides a unique test of both theories by examining the relationship between land cover change and fertility across hundreds of rural communities in four West-Central African countries. The findings reveal a complex relationship between natural capital and fertility. In communities where natural capital was initially low, a further decline in that capital is associated with both higher fertility preferences and levels. However, we find that fertility preferences and behavior are often discordant, with notable within-community differences in response to decline in natural capital across levels of household wealth.     

Sex Ratio and Community Size: Notes from the Northern Atlantic

In parts of the circumpolar North, smaller communities tend to have fewer young women than men. Among newcomer populations such as non-Natives in Alaska, this reflects disproportionate in-migration by young men seeking jobs on the frontier. Imbalances can also emerge, however, due to female outmigration from small villages—a pattern observed, for example, among the native populations of Alaska, Canada and Greenland. Several authors have linked female outmigration with socioeconomic change also in rural Finland, Norway and Ireland. This paper briefly examines plots of sex ratio versus community size in four northern Atlantic regions (Maine, Newfoundland, Iceland and Norway). We then look more closely at Norway, where the correlation between sex ratio and community size is strongest. Multiple regression suggests that economic factors, rather than community size as such, best explain this pattern. Specifically, the percent female among young adults tends to be lower in communities experiencing longterm population declines, dominated by fishing and other primary-industry employment, and having in consequence relatively few jobs for women. Further socioeconomic changes in many resource-dependent Atlantic communities seem inevitable as resources become depleted, and they also face the possibility of large-scale environmental change. When such changes occur, female outmigration could be an important component of the social response and individual-level adaption.     

生活满意度与养老院需求意愿的影响研究——江苏农村老年人的调查

在城镇化快速推进和家庭养老支持力弱化的背景下,农村老年人对养老院人住意愿也在发生变化。以人口老龄化严重、农村社会养老保险实现全覆盖的东部沿海经济发达省份江苏为例,运用Logistic旧归模型对农村老年人养老院的需求意愿进行实证分析。研究表明,农村老年人晚年生活满意度对养老院需求意愿存在负相关关系,即生活满意度低的老年人相比生活满意度高的老年人更倾向于选择入伟养老院。另外,农村老年人对养老院的需求意愿还受年龄、个人年收入、健康状况、存活儿子数和存活女儿数的影响。本研究的政策启示是,整合村组或社区中的多种力量,为农村老年人构建一个包含生活照料、精神慰藉等多方面的社会支持网络;科学预测农村人口老龄化水平和养老院的需求意愿,稳步推进农村地区养老机构事业发展;从农村地区实际出发,合理引导农村养老机构的资源配置和功能定位。     

The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility

The relationship between urbanization and fertility decline is known to be inverse in developed countries. However, the nature of this relationship in developing countries that already have relatively low fertilities is not well-understood. This study aims to illustrate how much urbanization contributed to China’s fertility decline between 1982 and 2008 and forecasts how much it can contribute to future reductions in fertility. The study examines changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) at both the national and provincial levels, given regional differences in the urbanization rate. The results show that changes in rural fertility behavior accounted for most of the decline in the national TFR between 1982 and 2008. This finding suggests that official birth control policies were instrumental in curbing China’s population growth. However, urbanization was responsible for about 22% of the decrease in TFR during this period, and its effect was especially important during the latter years (2001–2008). In most provinces, urbanization associated with a decline in provincial-level fertility. The forecasts indicate that urbanization will become the primary factor behind future declines in national fertility. Given the negative effect of urbanization on the TFR, it is possible to relax the one-child policy without having adverse implications for population growth.     

Feeding the Illusion of Growth and Happiness: A Reply to Hagerty and Veenhoven

In a rebuttal of Easterlin (1995), Hagerty and Veenhoven (2003) analyze data for 21 countries and conclude that “growing national income does go with greater happiness.” But the U.S. experience does not support this conclusion, which they obtain only by mixing together two sets of noncomparable surverys. Moreover, the result of studies of European countries and the U.S. by other scholars do not support their claim either. Furthermore, the experience of 6 out of 7 of their non-European countries fail to support their claim. Finally, if countries in their analysis with quite similar growth rates are grouped, one finds quite disparate trends in happiness, suggesting that factors other than growth in income are responsible for the differential trends in happiness. Instead of straining to feed the illusion that a focus on economic growth will create happiness, an approach is needed that explores the impact on national trends in life satisfaction, not just of material goods, but also of family life, health, work utility, and the like.     

The gap of economic development expanding between eastern China and middle,western China

Jiang Zemin announced at China's 5th Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee that there was a serious problem of differences in economic development between Eastern China and Middle and Western China. There are many economic development differences between provinces. The coastal eastern zone is comprised of 12 provinces and municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. The middle zone is comprised of 9 provinces and regions including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. The third development zone in Western China includes the 9 provinces of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. The most developed region is the eastern coastal zone. About 41% of the total population live in the eastern coastal zone, about 36% live in the middle zone, and about 23% live in the western zone. The proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) in the eastern, middle, and western zones shifted from 52.5%, 31.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, in 1973 to 58.5%, 27.4%, and 14.1%, respectively. in 1994. GDP per capita increased by 10.5 times in the eastern zone, by 8.2 times in the middle zone, and by 8.0 times in the western zone to 5352 yuan, 2878 yuan, and 2320 yuan, respectively, in 1994. Nationally, per capita income among urban households was 3179 yuan in 1994. In the eastern coastal zone only two provinces were below the national average: Liaoning with 2750.73 yuan/capita and Hebei with 2906.42 yuan/capita. Only 2 of 18 provinces in the middle and western zones had per capita urban income above the national average: Hunan with 3365.47 yuan/capita and Tibet with 3595.42/capita. Nationally, the annual net rural income was 1220.98/capita. Rural income below the national average occurred in Hebei and Guangsi in the eastern coastal zone and all provinces in the middle and western zones. The highest rural income in the middle and western zones was in Tibet with 975.95 yuan/capita.     

Demographic response to environmental pressure in Malawi

The discussion in this paper uses Malawi as a case study to shed some light on the interrelationships between population growth and demographic responses to environmental pressure. It is noted that certain parts of the country that are experiencing extreme environmental stress have began to go through a rapid phase of demographic and social change and transformation. For example, the Southern Region of the country, which has some of the highest densities, is experiencing a fertility transition. There is a spontaneous internal migration pattern from densely populated rural areas to other sparsely populated rural areas. Other non-demographic responses to population pressures are also briefly discussed in this paper.