Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search,Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates

Building upon a continuous‐time model of search with Nash bargaining in a stationary environment, we analyze the effect of changes in minimum wages on labor market outcomes and welfare. Although minimum wage increases may or may not lead to increases in unemployment in our model, they can be welfare‐improving to labor market participants on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market. We discuss identification of the model using Current Population Survey data on accepted wages and unemployment durations, and show that by incorporating a limited amount of information from the demand side of the market it is possible to obtain credible and precise estimates of all primitive parameters. We show that the optimal minimum wage in 1996 depends critically on whether or not contact rates can be considered to be exogenous and we note that the limited variation in minimum wages makes testing this assumption problematic.     

CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE STATE: THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN COOPERATION AND MINIMUM WAGE REGULATION

In a cross‐section of countries, state regulation of labor markets is negatively correlated with the quality of labor relations. In this paper, we argue that these facts reflect different ways of regulating labor markets, either through the state or through the civil society, depending on the degree of cooperation in the economy. We rationalize these facts with a model of learning of the quality of labor relations. Distrustful labor relations lead to low unionization and high demand for direct state regulation of wages. In turn, state regulation crowds out the possibility for workers to experiment negotiation and learn about the potential cooperative nature of labor relations. This crowding out effect can give rise to multiple equilibria: a “good” equilibrium characterized by cooperative labor relations and high union density, leading to low state regulation; and a “bad” equilibrium, characterized by distrustful labor relations, low union density, and strong state regulation of the minimum wage.     

Wage Bargaining with On‐the‐Job Search: Theory and Evidence

Most applications of Nash bargaining over wages ignore between‐employer competition for labor services and attribute all of the workers' rent to their bargaining power. In this paper, we write and estimate an equilibrium model with strategic wage bargaining and on‐the‐job search and use it to take another look at the determinants of wages in France. There are three essential determinants of wages in our model: productivity, competition between employers resulting from on‐the‐job search, and the workers' bargaining power. We find that between‐firm competition matters a lot in the determination of wages, because it is quantitatively more important than wage bargaining à la Nash in raising wages above the workers' “reservation wages,” defined as out‐of‐work income. In particular, we detect no significant bargaining power for intermediate‐ and low‐skilled workers, and a modestly positive bargaining power for high‐skilled workers.     

RETHINKING THE EFFECT OF IMMIGRATION ON WAGES

This paper calculates the effects of immigration on the wages of native US workers of various skill levels in two steps. In the first step we use labor demand functions to estimate the elasticity of substitution across different groups of workers. Second, we use the underlying production structure and the estimated elasticities to calculate the total wage effects of immigration in the long run. We emphasize that a production function framework is needed to combine own‐group effects with cross‐group effects in order to obtain the total wage effects for each native group. In order to obtain a parsimonious representation of elasticities that can be estimated with available data, we adopt alternative nested‐CES models and let the data select the preferred specification. New to this paper is the estimate of the substitutability between natives and immigrants of similar education and experience levels. In the data‐preferred model, there is a small but significant degree of imperfect substitutability between natives and immigrants which, when combined with the other estimated elasticities, implies that in the period from 1990 to 2006 immigration had a small effect on the wages of native workers with no high school degree (between 0.6% and +1.7%). It also had a small positive effect on average native wages (+0.6%) and a substantial negative effect (−6.7%) on wages of previous immigrants in the long run.     

THE IMPACT OF THE INTRODUCTION OF THE U.K. MINIMUM WAGE ON THE EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES OF LOW‐WAGE WORKERS

This paper uses longitudinal data from three contrasting data sets (matched Labor Force Surveys, the British Household Panel Survey, and matched New Earnings Surveys) to estimate the impact of the introduction of the U.K. minimum wage (in April 1999) on the probability of subsequent employment among those whose wages would have needed to be raised to comply with the minimum. A difference‐in‐differences estimator is used, based on position in the wage distribution. No significant adverse employment effects are found for any of the four demographic groups considered (adult and youth, men and women) or in any of the three data sets used. (JEL: J38, J23)     

SEARCH INTENSITY,DIRECTED SEARCH,AND THE WAGE DISTRIBUTION

We propose a search equilibrium model in which homogeneous firms post wages along with a vacancy to attract job seekers while homogeneous unemployed workers invest in costly job seeking. The key innovation relies on the organization of the search market and the search behavior of the job seekers. The search market is continuously segmented by wage level, individuals can spread their search investment over the different submarkets, and search intensity has marginal decreasing returns in each submarket. We demonstrate the existence of a nondegenerate equilibrium wage distribution. The density of this wage distribution is increasing at low wages and decreasing at high wages. The distribution can be right‐tailed, and, under additional restrictions, is hump‐shaped. Our results are illustrated by an example generating a Beta wage distribution.     

THE WELL‐BEING OF THE ELDERLY AND WAGE ARREARS IN RUSSIA

About one‐third of households with elderly were not paid their wages during the mid‐1990s in Russia. Applying matching estimations to a nationally representative survey, the study shows that wage arrears had detrimental effects on the well‐being of the elderly in these families. Salaries in households with wage arrears dropped by almost two‐thirds, income fell by more than one‐third, and poverty doubled. Behavioral responses were only partly effective. The net revenue loss amounted to five‐sixths of the wage shock for men, and nine‐tenths of the wage shock for women. The elderly cut back on food expenses by reducing food purchases and adjusting their diet towards cheaper calories, economising on expenses equal to around one‐quarter of the wage reduction. Caloric and protein intakes dropped, although less than income, and the nutritional content of food consumption with regard to vitamins and minerals deteriorated. Wage arrears worsened male health more than female health, even though the decline in income was comparable. Functional limitations rose by 8% for men and 3% for women, and self‐rated health declined by 2.5% for men and 0.5% for women. Old‐age men with arrears were almost twice as likely to die before the next survey round, and functional limitations of surviving men rose by more than 10%. By contrast, there was no impact on the next round's health status of old‐age women. A rich data set is used to discount alternative explanations, including feedback from health to income, other economic factors, health service access, health behavior, and environmental conditions. (JEL: I12, I30, J14, J30)     

IMMIGRATION,JOBS, AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPE BEFORE AND DURING THE GREAT RECESSION

In this paper we analyze the impact of immigrants on the type and quantity of native jobs. We use data on 15 Western European countries during the 1996–2010 period. We find that immigrants, by taking manual‐routine type of occupations pushed natives towards more “complex” (abstract and communication) jobs. This job upgrade was associated to a 0.7% increase in native wages for a doubling of the immigrants' share. These results are robust to the use of an IV strategy based on past settlement of immigrants across European countries. The job upgrade slowed but did not come to a halt during the Great Recession. We also document the labor market flows behind it: the complexity of jobs offered to new native hires was higher relative to the complexity of lost jobs. Finally, we find evidence that such reallocation was larger in countries with more flexible labor laws.     

An Equilibrium Theory of Learning,Search, and Wages

We examine the labor market effects of incomplete information about the workers' own job‐finding process. Search outcomes convey valuable information, and learning from search generates endogenous heterogeneity in workers' beliefs about their job‐finding probability. We characterize this process and analyze its interactions with job creation and wage determination. Our theory sheds new light on how unemployment can affect workers' labor market outcomes and wage determination, providing a rational explanation for discouragement as the consequence of negative search outcomes. In particular, longer unemployment durations are likely to be followed by lower reemployment wages because a worker's beliefs about his job‐finding process deteriorate with unemployment duration. Moreover, our analysis provides a set of useful results on dynamic programming with optimal learning.     

Wage Inequality of US Truck Drivers

Using CPS data for the period 1979–2009, the wage dispersion of truck drivers (and subsets of the truck driving sample) is compared with the trends in wage dispersion of males economy‐wide. We find that truckers' wages experienced a decrease in inequality post‐deregulation, as expected given the literature on regulation's impact on the labor market. We also find that the wage dispersion for truckers is markedly different from males economy‐wide, providing evidence that the wage distribution of truck drivers has been dominated by the changing structure of the occupation post‐deregulation and largely immune to the factors that increased inequality for the aggregate labor market.     

THE EQUALITY MULTIPLIER: HOW WAGE COMPRESSION AND WELFARE EMPOWERMENT INTERACT

We explore how more wage equality fuels the generosity of the welfare state via political competition in elections, and how a more generous welfare state fuels wage equality via empowerment of weak groups in the labor market. Together the two mechanisms may generate a cumulative process that explains how equality multiplies, and why countries with more equal distributions of market outcomes also have stronger welfare states. The complementarity between wage setting and welfare spending can explain why almost equally rich countries differ so much in economic and social equality among their citizens. (JEL: H53, I31, J31)     

THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE STRUCTURE OF WAGES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM BRITAIN

Immigration to the UK, particularly among more educated workers, has risen appreciably over the past 30 years and as such has raised labor supply. However studies of the impact of immigration have failed to find any significant effect on the wages of native‐born workers in the UK. This is potentially puzzling since there is evidence that changes in the supply of educated natives have had significant effects on their wages. Using a pooled time series of British cross‐sectional micro data on male wages and employment from the mid‐1970s to the mid‐2000s, this paper offers one possible resolution to this puzzle, namely that in the UK natives and foreign born workers are imperfect substitutes. We show that immigration has primarily reduced the wages of immigrants—and in particular of university educated immigrants—with little discernable effect on the wages of the native‐born.     

SOCIAL INTERACTIONS IN LABOR SUPPLY

Our research examines the effect of interdependence on estimation and interpretation of earnings/labor supply equations. We consider the cases of (1) a positive spillover from others' labor supplied and (2) a need for conformity with others' labor supplied. Qualitative and quantitative comparative statics results with a Stone‐Geary utility function demonstrate how spillover effects increase labor supply uniformly. Alternatively, conformity effects move labor supplied toward the mean of the reference group so that, in the limit, labor supply becomes perfectly inelastic at the reference group average. When there are unmodeled exogenous social interactions, conventional wage elasticities are still relatively well estimated, although structural parameters may not be. Omitting endogenous social interactions may seriously misrepresent the labor supply effects of policy, however. (JEL: D11, J22, Z13)     

Minimum Wages as a Barrier to Entry: Evidence from Germany

This study analyses employers' support for the introduction of industry‐specific minimum wages as a cost‐raising strategy in order to deter market entry. Using a unique data set consisting of 800 firms in the German service sector, we show that high‐productivity employers support minimum wages. We further find some evidence that minimum wage support is higher in industries and regions with low barriers to entry. This is particularly the case in East Germany, where the perceived threat of low‐wage competition from Central and Eastern European countries is relatively high. In addition, firms paying collectively agreed wages are more strongly in favour of minimum wages.     

COMPETITIVE MARKETS WITH ENDOGENOUS HEALTH RISKS

We study an economy where agents' productivity and labor endowment depend on their health status, and indivisible occupational choices affect individual health distributions. We show that Pareto efficiency requires cross‐transfers across occupations. Moreover, workers with relatively less safe jobs must get positive transfers whenever labor supply is not very reactive to wages, a condition in line with the findings of a large empirical literature. In these instances, compensating wage differentials equalizing the utilities of ex‐ante identical workers in different jobs undermine ex‐ante efficiency. Moreover, competitive equilibria where only assets with deterministic payoffs are traded are not first‐best. Finally, we show that simple transfer schemes, implemented through linear subsidies to health insurance, enhance efficiency.     

Beauty and the Labor Market: Accounting for the Additional Effects of Personality and Grooming

This paper examines the influence of three non‐cognitive personal traits — beauty, personality, and grooming — on the labor market earnings of young adults. It extends the analyses of Hamermesh and Biddle [1994 , American Economic Review 84(5): 1174–1194] and others who focus primarily on the effects of beauty on labor market earnings. We find that personality and grooming significantly affect wages, and their inclusion in a model of wage determination reduces somewhat the effects of beauty. We also find some evidence of employer discrimination based on these traits in the setting of wages.     

WHERE THE MINIMUM WAGE BITES HARD: INTRODUCTION OF MINIMUM WAGES TO A LOW WAGE SECTOR

Between 1993 and April 1999 there was no minimum wage in the United Kingdom (except in agriculture). In this paper we study the effects of the introduction of a National Minimum Wage (NMW) in April 1999 on one heavily affected sector, the residential care homes industry. This sector contains a large number of low paid workers and as such can be viewed as being very vulnerable to minimum wage legislation. We look at the impact on both wages and employment. Our results suggest that the minimum wage raised the wages of a large number of care home workers, causing a very big wage compression of the lower end of the wage distribution, thereby strongly reducing wage inequality. There is some evidence of employment and hours reductions after the minimum wage introduction, though the estimated effects are not that sizable given how heavily the wage structure was affected. (JEL: J4, J8)     

EVALUATING THE EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF A MANDATORY JOB SEARCH PROGRAM

This paper exploits area‐based piloting and age‐related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program—the New Deal for Young People in the U.K. A central focus is on substitution/displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects. The program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers. We find that the impact of the program significantly raised transitions to employment by about 5 percentage points. The impact is robust to a wide variety of nonexperimental estimators. However, we present some evidence that this effect may not be as large in the longer run. (JEL: J18, J23, J38)     

Technology Effects on Wages in Finnish Manufacturing

In this paper we study the effect of technology on establishment‐level wages using a classification of manufacturing industries based on four technology levels. The technology wage premiums are estimated separately for non‐manual and manual workers using wage equations with available control variables for plant and workforce characteristics (human capital) over the time period 1974–93. The results do not show a straightforward increasing relationship between a plant’s average wages and its technology at higher technology levels. However, establishments with the lowest technology level paid the lowest wages during the whole period. We also find that the relative non‐manual to manual wage ratio increased over the time period in the highest technology levels. These findings are consistent with technology wage premiums and skill‐biased technological change found in studies for other countries