基于消费者损失效用的概率销售策略研究

随着网络信息技术的迅猛发展，概率销售作为一种新颖的销售策略广泛应用于旅游业。在双寡头销售商竞争销售背景下，两销售商分别向损失中性和损失厌恶型消费者销售高档产品和概率产品（中低档产品打包成概率产品）。本文首先运用博弈方法建立了损失中性下的概率销售模型，揭示了产品质量对销售商策略的影响。考虑到消费者在购买概率产品后存在期望损失，我们进一步构建了损失厌恶下的概率销售模型，研究了期望损失对概率销售策略的影响。研究表明期望损失为概率销售商实施概率销售提供了可能性，同时可以增加概率销售商的利润，但可能会损害其竞争者的利益；销售商是否采用概率销售策略主要取决于消费者对购买损失和选择损失的敏感度。最后给出了数值应用结果及管理学启示。     

基于制销供应链产品安全责任的消费者投资决策

本文运用博弈论的基本思想,从产品的安全性能(企业社会责任的一个方面)对消费者偏好的影响入手,对基于制销供应链联盟产品安全责任的消费者投资决策进行了研究。结果表明:要使g类制销联盟对履行安全责任的要求作出必要的反应,消费者应向消费者组织做出贡献,以确保g类制销联盟被选作为施压的目标;低产品安全责任满意度的消费者既不持有g类制销联盟的股票也不对消费者组织做贡献,而是选择个人捐赠产品安全事业;高产品安全责任满意度的消费者选择持有g类制销联盟的股票或者对消费者组织做贡献是对个人捐赠产品安全事业较好的替代;消费者的产品安全责任满意度与消费者是否选择持有b类制销联盟的股票无关。本文的研究成果能够对基于制销供应链联盟产品安全责任行为的消费者投资决策提供重要指导。     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF SOCIAL POWER IN TERMS OF DECISION THEORY1

The paper presents an extension of decision theory to the analysis of social power. The power of a person, A, over another person, B, is viewed in terms of the effect A has on B's decision. The analysis is based on the idea that B's decision regarding the performance of alternative behaviors is a function of 1) B's utility for the consequences of the behaviors and 2) B's subjective probabilities that the behaviors will lead to these consequences. In these terms, A's power over B lies in A's ability to mediate various consequences for B, contingent upon B's compliance or noncompliance. Subjects were asked to consider eight situations in which hypothetical individuals had to make a choice between two courses of action. In each situation another person (A) was attempting to induce the hypothetical individual (B) to choose one of the alternatives, while various situational factors were influencing B to choose the other alternative. The subjects were asked to consider B's utilities and subjective probabilities in each situation and to indicate whether or not B should comply with A and to make ratings of A's power. The decision theory analysis did well in predicting whether or not subjects would indicate that B should comply with A. Also, subjects generally were able to correctly specify whether A or the situational factors had more influence over B's decision. Finally, the subjects' ratings of A's power in the eight situations were highly related to the decision theoretic measure of power.     

Managing Supply Chain Execution: Monitoring Timeliness and Correctness via Individualized Trace Data

Improvements in information technologies provide new opportunities to control and improve business processes based on real‐time performance data. A class of data we call individualized trace data (ITD) identifies the real‐time status of individual entities as they move through execution processes, such as an individual product passing through a supply chain or a uniquely identified mortgage application going through an approval process. We develop a mathematical framework which we call the State‐Identity‐Time (SIT) Framework to represent and manipulate ITD at multiple levels of aggregation for different managerial purposes. Using this framework, we design a pair of generic quality measures—timeliness and correctness—for the progress of entities through a supply chain. The timeliness and correctness metrics provide behavioral visibility that can help managers to grasp the dynamics of supply chain behavior that is distinct from asset visibility such as inventory. We develop special quality control methods using this framework to address the issue of overreaction that is common among managers faced with a large volume of fast‐changing data. The SIT structure and its associated methods inform managers on if, when, and where to react. We illustrate our approach using simulations based on real RFID data from a Walmart RFID pilot project.     

Competition and Sustainability: The Impact of Consumer Awareness

Sustainability, a broad concept that includes numerous environmental and social dimensions, has emerged as an important product evaluation criterion for consumers. We suggest the impact of sustainability on consumer behavior depends on two factors—each individual consumer's unique level of concern about sustainability, and the general level of awareness regarding the sustainability of competing products—that together determine the level of heterogeneity among consumer attitudes toward sustainability. We incorporate sustainability concern and awareness into a model of horizontal competition in a duopoly, where one firm's product is more sustainable than the other's. Our results suggest that marginal increases in awareness can benefit all firms, including the less sustainable one, when awareness is sufficiently high (the explicit goal of recent sustainability labeling initiatives). In several model extensions, we provide additional insights for the following cases: the sustainable firm controls the extent of its sustainability advantage, the sustainable firm can directly influence the general level of awareness, and the distribution of sustainability concern across consumers is nonuniform. Our results enable us to suggest several new insights for managers, both those whose products enjoy a sustainability advantage and those whose products do not.     

The bandpass problem: combinatorial optimization and library of problems

A combinatorial optimization problem, called the Bandpass Problem, is introduced. Given a rectangular matrix A of binary elements {0,1} and a positive integer B called the Bandpass Number, a set of B consecutive non-zero elements in any column is called a Bandpass. No two bandpasses in the same column can have common rows. The Bandpass problem consists of finding an optimal permutation of rows of the matrix, which produces the maximum total number of bandpasses having the same given bandpass number in all columns. This combinatorial problem arises in considering the optimal packing of information flows on different wavelengths into groups to obtain the highest available cost reduction in design and operating the optical communication networks using wavelength division multiplexing technology. Integer programming models of two versions of the bandpass problems are developed. For a matrix A with three or more columns the Bandpass problem is proved to be NP-hard. For matrices with two or one column a polynomial algorithm solving the problem to optimality is presented. For the general case fast performing heuristic polynomial algorithms are presented, which provide near optimal solutions, acceptable for applications. High quality of the generated heuristic solutions has been confirmed in the extensive computational experiments. As an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem with important applications the Bandpass problem offers a challenge for researchers to develop efficient computational solution methods. To encourage the further research a Library of Bandpass Problems has been developed. The Library is open to public and consists of 90 problems of different sizes (numbers of rows, columns and density of non-zero elements of matrix A and bandpass number B), half of them with known optimal solutions and the second half, without.     

Improving the Milk Supply Chain in Developing Countries: Analysis,Insights, and Recommendations

Quality issues in milk—arising primarily from deliberate adulteration by producers—have been reported in several developing countries. In the milk supply chain, a station buys raw milk from a number of producers, mixes the milk and sells it to a firm (that then sells the processed milk to end consumers). We study a non‐cooperative game between a station and a population of producers. Apart from penalties on proven low‐quality producers, two types of incentives are analyzed: confessor rewards for low‐quality producers who confess and quality rewards for producers of high‐quality milk. Contrary to our expectations, whereas (small) confessor rewards can help increase both the quality of milk and the station's profit, quality rewards can be detrimental. We examine two structures based on the ordering of individual and mixed testing of milk: pre‐mixed individual testing (first test a fraction of producers individually and then [possibly] perform a mixed test on the remaining producers) and post‐mixed individual testing (first test the mixed milk from all producers and then test a fraction of producers individually). Whereas pre‐mixed individual testing can be socially harmful, a combination of post‐mixed individual testing and other incentives achieves a desirable outcome: all producers supply high‐quality milk with only one mixed test and no further testing by the station.     

Analysis of Exogenous Components of Mortality Risks

A new technique for deriving exogenous components of mortality risks from national vital statistics has been developed. Each observed death rate D_ij (where i corresponds to calendar time (year or interval of years) and j denotes the number of corresponding age group) was represented as D_ij=A_j+B_iC_j, and unknown quantities A_j, B_i, and C_j were estimated by a special procedure using the least-squares principle. The coefficients of variation do not exceed 10%. It is shown that the term A_j can be interpreted as the endogenous and the second term B_iC_j as the exogenous components of the death rate. The aggregate of endogenous components A_j can be described by a regression function, corresponding to the Gompertz-Makeham law, A(τ) =γ+β· eατ, where γ, β, and α are constants, τ is age, AττAττA_j, and τ_j, is the value of age τ in jth age group. The coefficients of variation for such a representation does not exceed 4%. An analysis of exogenous risk levels in the Moscow and Russian populations during 1980–1995 shows that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk in the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994. The greatest contribution to the total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases, and their death rate was 387 deaths per 100,000 persons in 1994, i.e., 61.9% of all deaths. The dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990–1994 in the Moscow population and in the Russian population without Moscow had been identical: the risk had been increasing, and its value in the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population.     

Institutional Predictors of and Complements to Industry Self‐regulation with Regard to Labor Practices

In recent years, there has been increasing managerial and academic attention given to a variety of mechanisms for companies to respond to stakeholder concerns about global business ethics. One area that merits further analysis is the role of industry‐level cooperation regarding issues in global business ethics such as labor practices. There are two main issues that we will address in this article: institutional pressures that predict when an industry will create a code of conduct and institutional complements for an industry‐level code of conduct to be “successful” with regard to responding to stakeholder concerns about international business operations. We offer a number of propositions—bringing together work from both the corporate social responsibility and (neo)institutional theory literatures—with regard to both predictors and complements of industry self‐regulation in reference to labor practices.     

Technological alliance portfolio configuration and firm performance

Firms pursuing technological alliances to gain competitive advantages have become a ubiquitous phenomenon in today’s business environment. This article examines which technological alliance portfolio configuration is better for focal firm performance using a portfolio rather than a dyadic perspective. To assess technological alliance portfolio effects on Korean pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms, we adopted three explanatory variables—number of alliances, number of partners, and spanning structural holes. The growth rate of revenue and the growth rate of profit are used as dependent variables. We identify two characteristics of technological alliance portfolios from the two-step generalized method of moments estimates. First, we find that between two firms with the same number of alliances, the firm with the larger number of partners would have a better performance. This result is unlike those in previous studies because it distinguishes between the number of alliances and number of partners based on the network theory. Second, we find that spanning structural holes affects firm performance rather like a double-edge sword—it positively affects the growth rate of profit but negatively affects the growth rate of revenue of firms. In short, spanning structural holes is simultaneously beneficial for firm profitability and unfavorable for firm growth. This result differs from those of earlier studies because it shows that a firm spanning structural holes among alliance partners produces either a positive or a negative effect, suggesting that a firm should vary its strategy depending on whether it prioritizes profitability or growth.     

Commercialization of Platform Technologies: Launch Timing and Versioning Strategy

Many emerging entrepreneurial applications and services connect two or more groups of users over Internet‐based information technologies. Commercial success of such technology products requires astute business practices related to product line design, price discrimination, and launch timing. We examine these issues for a platform firm that serves two markets—labeled as user and developer markets—such that the size of each market positively impacts participation in the other. In addition, our model allows for sequential unfolding of consumer and developer participation, and for uncertainty regarding developer participation. We demonstrate that product versioning is an especially attractive strategy for platform firms, that is, the trade‐off between market size and margins is tilted in the direction of more versions. However, when expanding the product line carries substantial fixed costs (e.g., marketing cost, cost of additional plant, increased distribution cost), then the uncertainty in developer participation adversely impacts the firm's ability to offer multiple versions. We show that for established firms with lower uncertainty about developer participation, the choice is essentially between an expanded or minimal product line. Startups and firms that are entering a new product category are more likely to benefit from a “wait and see” deferred expansion strategy.     

Quality Provision with Heterogeneous Consumer Reservation Utilities

This study examines a firm's quality and price decisions when consumers differ not only in their willingness‐to‐pay for quality but also in their reservation utility for the basic product. We find that while the firm offers lower‐quality products when consumers' valuations for quality deteriorate, the optimal quality may increase with a negative shift in consumers' reservation utilities. We also investigate the optimal price and quality of the products within a vertically differentiated product line when the number of products is exogenously given. The existing literature shows that when consumers differ only in their willingness‐to‐pay for quality, the firm sets the efficient quality for consumers with the highest valuation for quality, whereas the concern for cannibalization pushes down the quality of inferior products. We find that when consumers are heterogeneous in both their reservation utility and valuation for quality, the concern for cannibalization may distort the quality upwards, even for consumers with the highest willingness‐to‐pay for quality. In addition, a low‐quality product may enjoy a higher profit margin than a high‐quality product within the product line.     

Combinatorics of TCP reordering

We study a combinatorial problem motivated by a receiver-oriented model of TCP traffic from Istrate et al. (2006), that incorporates information on both arrival times, and the dynamics of packet IDs. An important component of this model is a many-to-one mapping FB from sequences of IDs into a sequence of buffer sizes. We show that: i) Given a buffer sequence B, constructing a sequence A of IDs that belongs to the preimage of B is no harder than finding matchings in bipartite graph. ii) Counting the number of sequences A of packet IDs that belong to the preimage of B can be done in linear time in the special case when there exists a constant upper bound on the maximum entry in B. iii) This problem also has a fully polynomial randomized approximation scheme when we have a constant upper bound on the number of repeats in the packet sequences in the preimage. We also provide experimental evidence that the two previous results suffice to efficiently count the number of preimages for buffer sequences observed in real TCP data.     

Work Design and Integration Glitches in Globally Distributed Technology Projects

In a technology project, project integration represents the pooling together of complete, interdependent task modules to form a physical product or software delivering a desired functionality. This study develops and tests a conceptual framework that examines the interrelationships between the elements of work design, project integration challenges, and project performance. We identify two distinct elements of work design in technology projects: (i) the type of project organization based on whether a technology project spans a firm boundary (Domestic‐Outsourcing) or a country boundary (Offshore‐Insourcing) or both boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing) or no boundaries (Domestic‐Insourcing), and (ii) the joint coordination practices among key stakeholders in a technology project—namely, Onsite Ratio and Joint‐Task Ownership. Next, we measure the effectiveness of project integration using integration glitches that capture the incompatibility among interdependent task modules during project integration. Based on analysis of data from 830 technology projects, the results highlight the differential effects of distributed project organizations on integration glitches. Specifically, we find that project organizations that span both firm and country boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing) experience significantly higher levels of integration glitches compared to domestic project organizations (Domestic‐Outsourcing and Domestic‐Insourcing). The results further indicate that the relationship between project organization type and integration glitches is moderated by the extent of joint coordination practices in a project. That is, managers can actively lower integration glitches by increasing the levels of onsite ratio and by promoting higher levels of joint‐task ownership, particularly in project organization types that span both firm and country boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing). Finally, the results demonstrate the practical significance of studying integration glitches by highlighting its significant negative effect on project performance.     

Estimated Rate of Fatal Automobile Accidents Attributable to Acute Solvent Exposure at Low Inhaled Concentrations

Acute solvent exposures may contribute to automobile accidents because they increase reaction time and decrease attention, in addition to impairing other behaviors. These effects resemble those of ethanol consumption, both with respect to behavioral effects and neurological mechanisms. These observations, along with the extensive data on the relationship between ethanol consumption and fatal automobile accidents, suggested a way to estimate the probability of fatal automobile accidents from solvent inhalation. The problem can be approached using the logic of the algebraic transitive postulate of equality: if A=B and B=C, then A=C. We first calculated a function describing the internal doses of solvent vapors that cause the same magnitude of behavioral impairment as ingestion of ethanol (A=B). Next, we fit a function to data from the literature describing the probability of fatal car crashes for a given internal dose of ethanol (B=C). Finally, we used these two functions to generate a third function to estimate the probability of a fatal car crash for any internal dose of organic solvent vapor (A=C). This latter function showed quantitatively (1) that the likelihood of a fatal car crash is increased by acute exposure to organic solvent vapors at concentrations less than 1.0 ppm, and (2) that this likelihood is similar in magnitude to the probability of developing leukemia from exposure to benzene. This approach could also be applied to other potentially adverse consequences of acute exposure to solvents (e.g., nonfatal car crashes, property damage, and workplace accidents), if appropriate data were available.     

Browse‐and‐Switch: Retail‐Online Competition under Value Uncertainty

Although online shopping is becoming popular, consumers who are unsure about whether to buy a product may find it advantageous to visit a brick‐and‐mortar retail store to first examine the product before purchasing it. But, after browsing at the store, consumers have the option of switching to an e‐tailer to purchase the item at a cheaper price rather than buying at the store. Recent business press refers to this browse‐and‐switch behavior as “showrooming,” and attributes to it the declining profits of brick‐and‐mortar retailers. To study the effect of the browse‐and‐switch option on retail and online pricing strategies and profits, we analyze a stylized economic model that incorporates uncertainty in consumers' valuation of the product, captures the heterogeneity among consumers in their inclination to purchase online, and permits product returns. We consider various equilibrium scenarios for different combinations of consumer shopping behaviors, characterize the parameter ranges for each scenario, and demonstrate that browse‐and‐switch behavior can indeed occur under equilibrium. Our analysis further shows that the option for consumers to browse‐and‐switch intensifies competition, reducing the profits for both firms.     

Can Environmental Insurance Succeed Where Other Strategies Fail? The Case of Underground Storage Tanks

Private risk reduction will be socially efficient only when firms are liable for all the damage that they cause. We find that environmental insurance can achieve social efficiency even when two traditional policy instruments—ex post fines and risk management mandates with ex ante fines—do not. Inefficiency occurs with ex post fines, when small firms declare bankruptcy and escape their liabilities, limiting the incentives from this policy tool. Firms ignore mandates to implement efficient risk management because regulatory agencies do not have sufficient resources to monitor every firm. The evolution of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's and states’ underground storage tank programs suggests that mandating environmental insurance can address inefficiency due to small firms declaring bankruptcy. Comparing insurance mandates to risk management mandates, the burden on a regulator is lower if all it has to do is to confirm that the firm has insurance rather than that the firm has actually, and effectively, implemented required management practices. For underground storage tanks, we show that insurance lowered toxic releases.     

基于有限理性消费者的竞争性退款保证策略

考虑有限理性消费者的前提下研究了低质和高质零售商关于退款保证的策略竞争。进一步将模型扩展到存在产品质量差异的情形,研究产品质量对双方策略的影响。研究表明:只有当有限理性消费者数量高于一定临界值时,提供退款保证才是有利可图的。在产品质量对称的市场上,零售商关于退款保证的均衡局面为同时提供退款保证,且此时退款保证对低质企业更有利;而在产品质量非对称的市场上,零售商关于退款保证的均衡局面可能为低质企业不提供,高质企业提供或双方同时提供。此时退款保证更倾向于对高质企业有利。     

The Male–Female Wage Gap and the Firm Effect: The Case of Young Italian Workers

Abstract. The idea that wages are determined by firm and individual characteristics suggests that there is a firm effect that influences wage differentials. This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of gender wage differentials — based on INPS data for people between the ages of 20 and 25 employed in the private sector in 1996 — which takes into account the characteristics of workers and firms using a two‐level random‐effects model. Firm variables proved to be significant, and the proportion of females in the firm showed a negative effect on the wages of both men and women.     

Strategic alliances for corporate sustainability innovation: The ‘how’ and ‘when’ of learning processes

Mounting sustainability pressures challenge established firms to engage with sustainability innovations, which are often introduced by startups. Research on alliance learning has established the potential of learning from startups to advance corporate innovation. Here, scholars have outlined alliance learning processes and outcomes and have distinguished learning about and learning from alliance partners as two key learning types. The saliency of learning from the operational alliance process is stressed. To date, however, no study has investigated alliance learning processes and outcomes for sustainability innovations. This is despite the fact that sustainability research suggests learning processes in the sustainability context have a distinct nature. This study addresses this research gap by analyzing the sustainability-specific learning processes and outcomes of a large European meat producer and wholesaler with a turnover of $2.7bn in the fiscal year 2019/2020. The firm formed alliances with nine startups for sustainable plant, insect-based and cell-based protein solutions. Our analysis (1) identifies three distinct characteristics of sustainability-related alliance learning processes and outcomes, and (2) specifies the temporal occurrence and outcomes of learning types in alliance learning phases. In contrast to findings of prior research, our study reveals that learning about alliance partners is of key importance throughout the whole sustainability-oriented alliance learning process. In addition, the findings highlight that alliance learning outcomes may support an established firm's contribution to the sustainability transformation of mass markets.