美国对中国反倾销的贸易效应:基于木制卧室家具的实证分析

本文探究了美国对中国木制卧室家具反倾销的贸易效应,研究发现:(1)美国对中国木制卧室家具反倾销产生了贸易调查效应,课征反倾销税对美国该行业进口产生了显著的贸易限制效应,实施反倾销措施引致了美国进口向越南、马来西亚和印度尼西亚转移,并促使中国木制卧室家具出口发生国家间贸易转移,特别是家具产品间贸易转移。(2)美国对中国木制卧室家具反倾销引致了价格上升效应。外国直接投资旨在跨越反倾销税壁垒,但增强了企业之间的竞争,由此减少甚至逆转美国反倾销政策的保护作用。美国对中国WBF反倾销已导致部分外资家具企业开始向第三国转移投资。本文建议中国商务部可引导建立行业预警机制,鼓励WBF企业加强研发和设计创新,被控企业应积极应诉,谋求市场导向行业地位;鼓励和支持中国WBF企业开拓国际市场,努力实现出口市场多元化。     

Effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on U.S. agricultural exports

This paper investigates the effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement (CUSTA) on U.S. exports of agricultural products. Econometric analysis found that CUSTA has had a large impact on many U.S. agricultural export categories. All of the consumer-oriented products (except wine and beer), five of the intermediate products, and four of the bulk products had significant CUSTA effects. It is clear that the CUSTA effects have been larger for consumer-oriented food products. There is also evidence that U.S. affiliate sales in Canada have stimulated U.S. exports of consumer-oriented products and intermediate products.     

相对杠杆与股票收益的相关性研究——来自中美市场的实证分析

本文结合考虑公司融资决策参考依赖特征及资本结构动态调整行为,构造相对杠杆这一新的财务杠杆度量指标重新检视了财务杠杆在资产定价中发挥的作用,并将中美市场进行对比分析.研究表明,相较于实际杠杆,相对杠杆能更好地解释股票溢价,在中美市场均表现出对股票收益的显著正向影响,但同时也存在差异性.在中国市场账面相对杠杆的股票溢价解释能力较弱,而在美国市场账面相对杠杆仍与股票收益显著正相关;在中国市场过度杠杆对股票收益的影响明显强于杠杆不足,而在美国市场两者表现出较为对称的影响;同时在中美市场以不同方式在Fama-French三因素模型中引入相对杠杆定价因子所得到的定价模型能显著提升原模型的定价能力,有更好的定价表现.     

寻求我国GDP对FDI的最优依存度与FDI最优规模——基于1980~003年我国GDP与FDI非线性动力系统的研究

我国FDI与GDP增长之间的关系问题,一直是学术界探究的问题,FDI与GDP之间存在线性关系已是普遍的结论。然而,本质上FDI与GDP之间存在非线性关系,略去非线性关系,用线性模型还不能深刻揭示FDI对GDP增长的作用。本文应用韩得瑞(Hendry)倡导的“一般到特殊”方法建立了我国GDP—FDI非线性动力系统(CG-FNLDS)模型,其表明,我国GDP与FDI是相互推动的,但由于FDI内部发生阻塞现象,FDI具有增长极限。CG-FNLDS相图中具有一个稳定的结点吸引子,FDI最优规模为1116亿美元,最优的FDI/GDP值为2.95%,因而,目前进入我国的FDI还有一定的增长空间,但难以超过GDP速度增长,CG-FNLDS向结点运动过程正是其自我调节过程。进一步对CG-FNLDS进行最优控制时,可以把损失减少到最低限度,但从长远上我国还是要趁早采取有效措施增强我国GDP自主增长后劲。     

Analysis of forces affecting competitive position of Mexico in supplying U.S. winter melon market

An econometric model representing the United States, Mexico and Caribbean nations melon sectors was estimated to analyze the primary economic forces influencing Mexico’s competitiveness in the U.S. winter melon market, a period when about two-thirds of U.S. consumption is imported. Results show peso-devaluation to be important in the short-run and yield-enhancing technology to be important in the short- and long-run. Increased rates of growth in Mexican yields were about six times more effective at increasing market share than NAFTA provisions which phase-out U.S. tariffs. An accelerated rate of growth in Mexican per capita income was found to reduce melon exports about 75% while higher wages would reduce exports about 20% in the long-run.     

How does homeland security affect U.S. firms' international competitiveness?

This paper frames the issue of homeland security and its relationship to the international competitiveness of U.S. firms in general. This is largely a conceptual statement, identifying the areas of national security (homeland security) that are key to business, and exploring the management concerns of business to the new threats and opportunities that have arisen.We establish the point that homeland security is a purposeful, conscious, and rational response to terrorist events that is an emergent and evolving systems phenomenon. This systems approach is an especially useful way to look at the implications of homeland security in its relation to business. We then look specifically at the kinds of costs and risks that are generated for U.S. international business (exports, imports, incoming and outgoing investments) as a result of this phenomenon. Management strategies for dealing with these costs and risks are explored for U.S. firms.Our conclusion is to demonstrate the scope of analysis that is needed to understand and to managerially cope with the homeland security problem. We show the value of using theory from various disciplines for analyzing a multi-dimensional problem like this. And finally we are able to recommend some policy dimensions for both companies and the U.S. Government toward mitigating the negative impacts of the homeland security problem.     

Competition within the U.S. National Security Regime: A study of the U.S. Aerospace Defense Sector

This article examines the aerospace defense sector and the national export control regime within which U.S. corporations operate. While the U.S. federal government plays many roles in this industry, the focus here is on its role as regulator of defense exports from the United States. From this vantage point, ten case studies illustrate the difficulties faced by companies in this challenging environment, and highlight factors that lead to noncompliance with U.S. government regulations. Firm performance effects are investigated, including impacts on profits, share price, and reputation. The paper concludes with implications for international management practice and international business research that reflect realities in the aerospace defense sector.     

次贷危机前后国际原油市场与中美股票市场间的协动性研究

本文运用基于动态条件相关的多元GARCH(DCC-MVGARCH)模型,对美国次信贷危机发生前后国际原油市场和中、美股票市场间的协动性变化进行了研究。实证结果表明在次信贷危机发生后,国际原油市场与中、美股票市场间的协动性有了明显的增强,不同市场间的波动具有明显的传导作用。国际原油市场与美国股市的协动性相对于中国股市波动性更强,说明冲击在国际原油市场与美国股市间的传导更强烈,其协动性对冲击的反应更敏感。另外,运用偏最小二乘方法(PLS)对影响国际原油市场和中、美股票市场的诸多因素在次信贷危机爆发前后对协动性解释能力的变化进行了分析,结果发现次信贷危机对这些因素的解释能力有明显的影响。     

进入中国的FDI的行为变迁对国际收支的影响研究

近年来,进入中国的FDI不断从出口导向型向市场寻求型转变,快速抢占中国市场。本文通过建立差分模型,考察FDI这一行为变迁对国际收支的影响。研究表明以占领东道国市场为目的FDI将在长时期内不断削减FDI产生的净出口效应,使得东道国国际收支顺差不断减小,且随着寻求市场型FDI存量占FDI的比重不断增大,极有可能导致FDI产生的国际收支净效益转为逆差,甚至引发国际收支危机。     

显性比较优势、产业内贸易与中美双边贸易平衡

本文有如下创新和结论:(1)细化行业分类到SITC4分位数据,改进RCA指数测算方法,揭示出中国对美工业制造品出口具有显著比较优势的商品组,排序为:杂项制品66类、原料制品51类、机械与运输设备36类。(2)将产业内贸易调整指数方法运用到中美产业内贸易研究,证实中美工业制造品静态产业内贸易平衡状况较差,大多数商品组趋向产业间贸易,少数商品组表现为垂直产业内贸易。(3)GL指数和Cj指数无法反映产业内贸易失衡程度和方向,本文提出产业内贸易失衡指数,揭示出加重中美工业制造品贸易失衡和对贸易失衡起到平衡作用的商品组。(4)认为Thorpe和Zhang(2005)给出的动态产业内贸易指数分子中分类集合加总会造成扭曲,本文改进了该动态指数,并证实中美工业制造品动态产业内贸易失衡状况比静态产业内贸易失衡状况更差,中美贸易逆差难以改变。     

Subnational FDI Legitimacy and Foreign Subsidiary Survival

We examine how organizational ecology and the strategic choice perspective can be combined to provide more contextualized insights into how multinational corporations (MNCs) can better counter environmental pressures with evolving subnational FDI legitimacy and improve the survival likelihood of their subsidiaries. We consider three organizational identity-based strategic choices, i.e., country-of-origin (COO) agglomeration, expatriate staffing level and subsidiary ownership level. We hypothesize a U-shaped relationship between FDI legitimacy and subsidiary mortality, and that this relationship will be moderated by the level of COO agglomeration at a subnational level. We also hypothesize that with improving FDI legitimacy, the use of higher levels of expatriates and ownership will jeopardize the survival of larger subsidiaries. A longitudinal dataset (2001–2016) for 3025 subsidiaries formed by 1147 Japanese MNCs in China was used in hypothesis testing. Results largely supported our hypotheses. We discuss how an identity-centered approach can contribute to theory and practice.     

以美国为参照的国际性技术外溢的经济效果研究

首先,以影响母国技术溢出和东道国吸收同化的8项指标为主要依据,使用因子分析法对26个选定国家进行综合排序,并选取了基于美国技术外溢的11个主要接受国.其次,在对技术知识存量和技术同化能力的度量方法进行描述后,将美国单独作为技术溢出方,测算了11个主要接受国通过进口贸易、FDI和人员交流3种无形(直接)外溢渠道,从美国吸收的外溢技术知识存量.最后,将11个主要接受国从美国吸收的知识存量总和的面板数据纳入广义Cobb-Douglas生产函数中进行研究.结果显示,美国的国际性技术外溢在各国经济发展中发挥了积极的作用.     

DISTANCE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT WHEN CONTRACTS ARE INCOMPLETE

We introduce incomplete contracts in a model where multinational firms from a certain country (“North”) can decide to serve a foreign market (“South”) through exports or through horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI relies on the supply of specialized intermediate inputs that could be supplied either by northern suppliers or by suppliers located in South. Intermediate sourcing contracts are complete in North but not in South. Were southern contracts also complete, FDI would arise only when trade barriers are high enough. Incomplete contracts in South generate, instead, a non‐linear relation between trade barriers and FDI as foreign investment emerges also when trade barriers are low enough. The reason is the positive effect that low trade barriers have on the bargaining power of final producers with respect to their southern suppliers. (JEL: F23, F12)     

Unions and the Welfare Impact of Foreign Direct Investment — A Wisdom Extension

Abstract. This paper extends the recent literature, e.g. Leahy and Montagna (Economic Journal 110: 80–92, 2000), in relation to the link between unionization, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and country welfare in an oligopoly market structure. It is shown that the common results, that unions may reduce welfare under FDI while multinational enterprises (MNEs) will strictly trade off union wages at each location, are generally driven by the assumption relating to the scope of the bargaining with the union, namely the ‘right to manage’ (RTM). In particular, our extension to efficient bargaining (EB) demonstrates that union power may increase welfare in the presence of FDI, while the MNEs’ choice between FDI and exports will include profit‐sharing arbitrage with unions, in addition to the usual wage comparison considerations.     

外资特征与技术创新——基于中国省际数据分析

利用1997年至2009年中国15个省份的面板数据探讨外资特征对中国各省份技术创新作用的影响。从FDI的不同特征出发,研究来自不同国家的FDI、不同规模的FDI、折合成技术权重的FDI以及FDI在不同产业中的渗透强度等方面对中国不同省份技术创新的影响,探讨将FDI的不同特征细分以后可能出现的异质性结果。研究结果表明,来自欧美国家的FDI对于发明专利、外观专利有显著的正向效应,来自亚洲国家的FDI对于发明专利、外观专利有负向效应;企业规模对于发明专利、外观专利均有显著积极作用;外资在制造业中的比重越大,明显抑制了中国的技术进步;折合成技术权重的FDI对于发明专利、外观专利的影响也是显著为负。     

FDI技术溢出与中国企业创新产出

采用2004年至2008年中国30个省市自治区的面板数据,运用二级三要素CES生产函数分析FDI对中国企业技术创新溢出效应的可行性,揭示FDI、R&D经费投入和R&D人力资本投入3个投入要素之间以及与企业创新产出之间的复杂关系。研究结果表明,要素间的固定替代弹性系数不等于1,因而证明了运用CES生产函数的可行性;FDI对中国企业创新产出产生正面的溢出效应,FDI流入量每增加1%,能使专利申请授权数增加0.18%;但是通过计算1990年至2008年FDI对企业创新的产出弹性发现,该产出弹性并没有随FDI引进量的增加而增加,反而有所下降;R&D经费投入和R&D人力资本投入是影响企业对FDI知识溢出吸收能力的关键因素,中国R&D人力资本的缺乏抑制了企业吸收FDI知识溢出的能力。     

外商直接投资影响因素的偏最小二乘回归建模分析

改革开放的20多年来,我国的外商直接投资逐年增加,对我国经济的快速发展发挥了重要的作用。而影响外商直接投资的因素有很多,不同的因素变量之间往往存在多重共线性或近似多重共线性关系,使得分析问题的难度加大。本文运用新型的多元统计数据分析方法——偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法(既克服了传统方法的不足,又有效地消除了因素变量之间的多重共线性),分析了影响我国外商直接投资的因素,以及其影响程度,为我国进一步引进外商直接投资提供了有益的定量依据。     

Modelling Russian outward FDI

Among emerging economies, the Russian Federation is the second largest outward investor, surpassed only by Hong Kong (China) but ahead of Brazil, China and India. This article analyses the main patterns of Russian outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), including its dynamics and geographical destinations. It also highlights the changing strategies of outward investing Russian firms: in the early 1990s, they were mostly privately-owned transnational corporations (TNCs), seeking ‘safety nests’ abroad to protect themselves from domestic uncertainty; these days, state-owned or -influenced TNCs dominate Russian capital exports, motivated by a desire to control the value chain of their products. There are, however, characteristics common to both periods, such as the predominance of natural resource-based firms among the largest Russian TNCs. Using those characteristics as a basis, the paper attempts to model formally Russian outward FDI. It tests the extent to which the mainstream theory (ownership and locational advantages) is applicable to the Russian context, as well as the role played by specific factors such as state ownership. Home-country factors seem to play a particularly important role in shaping Russian outward FDI. As for the motivations of FDI, in the CIS and developing countries, Russian TNCs seem to aim at controlling upstream natural resources, while in high-income countries they aim at controlling downstream markets.     

人民币与新台币汇兑定价机制研究

随着海峡两岸"三通"的正式启动以及两岸金融监管谅解备忘录(MOU)的生效,两岸的经贸交流日趋紧密,因此人民币与新台币之间尽快实现双向直接兑换就显得更加迫切。本文采用直接定价和间接定价两种方法对人民币与新台币的汇率做出定价,直接定价法是根据购买力平价理论和货币模型,通过多元线性回归得到两地汇率与我国大陆和台湾地区产出水平、货币供应量和利率的关系。而间接定价法是根据利率平价理论,通过对人民币兑美元的NDF汇率、远期汇率和即期汇率以及新台币兑美元的NDF汇率和即期汇率分别做单位根检验,协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验后,发现人民币与新台币各自的汇率之间存在显著的相关关系,因此我们利用NDF汇率替代利率平价公式中的远期汇率,计算出人民币与新台币的即期汇率,通过比较发现:间接定价法更适合于人民币与新台币汇率的决定。     

外商直接投资质量评价

本文在考虑物价指数、汇率和折旧等因素的基础上,测算我国总资本存量和外商直接投资(FDI)存量.在科技产出与技术水平、FDI质量与其母国技术水平正相关的前提假设下,提出了以科技产出与影响大小代替技术水平的间接评价FDI质量的方法,并对我国16个主要外资来源国家和地区FDI质量进行排序;就我国引进FDI策略选择问题,提出引进FDI应该以外资技术能够向中资企业转移,弥补我国技术缺口为标准.