The cost of uncertain life span

Much uncertainty surrounds the length of human life. The standard deviation in adult life span is about 15 years in the USA, and theory and evidence suggest that it is costly. I calibrate a utility-theoretic model that shows that 1 year in standard deviation is worth about half a life year. Differences in variance exacerbate health inequalities between and among rich and poor countries. Accounting for the cost of life-span variance appears to amplify recently discovered patterns of convergence in world average human well-being because the component of variance due to infant mortality has exhibited even more convergence than life expectancy.     

The value and cost of children

Recent research on actual and perceived benefits and costs of children to their parents in both developed and less developed countries is summarized. Such figures and research cannot only help predict fertility behavior but can also provide data for welfare departments figuring support costs, courts setting support costs, and government planners allocating resources. Findings on costs and satisfactions from several major surveys are presented and then actual costs in the U.S. are presented in a series of tables. Research indicates that efforts to popularize small families could well take an economic approach - developing social security systems for the aged, substituting mother's for children's work in developing countries. Compulsory education might also help. 1 researcher suggests publicizing exact costs of raising a child. A survey in Hawaii found that parents uniformly underestimated the direct costs of each child. Also, couples might be most receptive to family planning during the years when economic costs are highest.     

The individual cost of sick leave

This paper aims to estimate the causal effect of sick leave on subsequent earnings and employment, using an administrative dataset for Norway. To obtain experiment-like variation in sick leave among otherwise similar workers, the leniency of these workers’ physicians—certifying sickness absences—is used as an instrumental variable for sick leave. A 1 percentage point increase in a worker’s sick leave rate is found to reduce his earnings by 1.2% 2?years later. Around half of the reduction in earnings can be explained by a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in the probability of being employed.     

The cost of children. Part I

Using pre-war surveys of expenditure an attempt is made to assess the effect of the addition of one or more children on the distribution of expenditure. It is found that the changes between broad groups are small. The chief effect is an increased expenditure in the larger families on food and children's clothing, compensated by reduced expenditure on luxuries and adult clothing. It is confirmed that expenditure on accommodation does not rise with family size.     

The cost of children. Parts II and III

In this paper the author estimates the compensating variation of income which will be necessary to keep the standard of living of a family constant when a child is born to the family. Various methods of estimation are tried, and an attempt is made to calculate the cost of a child in 1948, after allowances have been made for services provided by the government.     

The marginal cost of public funds with an aging population

"As populations in the United States and other advanced economies grow older, the burden of social security and health care financing is expected to rise markedly. Payroll, income, and other taxes on working populations are projected to rise accordingly. The marginal welfare cost to workers of social security and other public expenditures is analyzed within the context of a two-period life cycle model. By relaxing separability assumptions that have become common in the literature, the theoretical structure properly incorporates the effect of these public expenditures on labor supply. Comparative statics results indicate that changing age structure is likely to raise the marginal welfare to workers of social security, education, and other public expenditures. Illustrative calculations for the United States confirm this result, suggesting that the cost to workers of incremental social security benefits may easily double by 2025-2050."     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England

This paper explores the responses of fertility and nuptiality to fluctuations in real wages and mortality that can be inferred from annual series of English historical data over the period 1542 to 1800. The paper begins with a review of the time series properties of the data and summarizes the long-term equilibrium relationships identified in previous work. A Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) is then proposed to study the observed short-term fluctuations in a way that is compatible with long-term equilibria. Following estimation of the parameters of the VECM, an investigation is made of the impact of shocks to real wages and mortality on demographic variables as measured by generalized impulse responses and persistence profiles. Received: 24 September 1997 / Accepted: 12 December 1997     

Shifting environmental concern in rural eastern Oregon: the role of demographic and place-based factors

Public opinion can impact the success of natural resource management policies and programs. In this case study, we assess the degree to which demographic and place-based factors are associated with changing public opinions on climate change, wolves, renewable energy, and land development regulations in rural northeast Oregon. Based on cross-sectional telephone survey data collected in 2011 and 2014, our observations suggest declining support for eliminating wolves, increased support for renewable energy, and increasingly favorable views of regulations that limit development in rural landscapes. We find that while demographic change and local events contribute to some of the observed shifts in opinion on wolves, exogenous factors acting at state and national levels likely contribute to shifting opinions on climate change, renewable energy, and land use regulations.     

Exclusion and vulnerability on public transit: experiences of transit dependent riders in Portland,Oregon

In urban areas, the inequitable distribution of transit systems and services has been shown to reproduce safety and environmental risks – potentially exacerbating preexisting inequities. Thus, how vulnerable populations access and utilize public transportation is of critical concern to urban scholars. This paper utilizes focus group data to explore how transit-dependent (particularly low-income) riders engage with the public transit system in Portland, Oregon. We illustrate specific ways in which transit-dependent riders experience marginalization and exclusion. We find that certain groups, particularly mothers with young children and those with disabilities are not well served by a public infrastructure oriented toward an ‘ideal rider’ who is an economically stable, able-bodied, white, male commuter. We conclude that a public infrastructure meant to serve all riders equitably, yet which fails to consider the unique experiences of marginalized transit users risks further amplifying existing social vulnerabilities and reinforcing gender, racial, and class inequalities.     

The measurement of household cost functions: revealed preference versus subjective measures

Since the work of Pollak and Wales (1979), it is well-known that demand data are insufficient to identify a household cost function. Hence additional information is required. For that purpose I propose to employ direct measurement of feelings of well-being, elicited in surveys.In the paper I formally establish the connection between subjective measures and the cost function underlying the AID system. The subjective measures fully identify cost functions and the expenditure data do this partly. This makes it possible to test the null hypothesis that both types of data are consistent with one another, i.e. that they measure the same thing. I use two separate data sets to set up a test of this equivalence. The outcomes are somewhat mixed and indicate the need for further specification search. Finally, I discuss some implications of the outcomes.Presidential address delivered at the seventh annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, June 2–5, Budapest, Hungary. A first version was presented at the meetings of the Allied Social Sciences Associations, Anaheim, California, January 5–7, 1993. The author thanks Rob Alessie for help with the data, and the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics for their permission to use the data. Both Rob Alessie and an anonymous referee made very helpful comments on an earlier version.     

An evaluation of the American Community Survey: results from the Oregon test site

The American Community Survey (ACS) is a Census Bureau product designed to provide accurate and timely demographic and economic indicators on an annual basis for both large and small geographic areas within the United States. Operational plans for Census 2010 call for ACS to replace the decennial census long form (Census LF), pending the results of evaluation studies. This plan represents a major change in that variables that traditionally have been collected on a “snapshot” basis once every 10 years would be collected on a “rolling” annual basis. Using a loss function analysis and other tools, this paper reports preliminary findings from a comparison of ACS and Census 2000 results in Multnomah County, Oregon, one of five national “local expert” test sites set up to compare ACS data collected at the time of Census 2000. The preliminary findings suggest that there are notable differences between some of the corresponding variables found in the ACS and Census LF that require more detailed examination. For example, the loss function analysis reveals notable differences for race and disability variables. In other comparisons of corresponding variables between ACS and Census 2000, differences are found within each of the four major areas of interest: (1) demographic characteristics, (2) social characteristics, (3) economic characteristics, and (4) housing characteristics, with housing characteristics showing the least similarity overall. These results also suggest that more detailed examinations are needed to understand differences between corresponding variables collected by ACS and the Census LF.     

The present value of population growth in the western world

Abstract In conventional steady-state growth theory with technical progress exogenous, faster population growth causes lower consumption. This conclusion has influenced national policies. With technical progress endogenous, however, higher population growth causes higher consumption. Steady-state equilibrium analysis is not appropriate for policy decisions, though. Rather, appropriate analysis compares two or more growth rates beginning from equal initial positions, with comparison of the present value of consumption streams per person. In the paper the supply of and demand for knowledge is first analysed and the most plausible technical progress functions are derived. Various population growth rates are then simulated with different specifications and parameters. With virtually every variant, faster population growth shows better consumption with discount rates up to between five and ten per cent above the long-run adjusted riskless rate. With pensions included in the analysis, faster population growth would seem even more beneficial. Even at very high discount rates, lower population growth rates imply present values only a little higher than those for higher population growth rates. The advantage is overwhelmingly with higher population growth in this growth-theoretic analysis.     

The growth of the service sector in the Canadian economy

This paper examines some of the important long-term changes that have occurred in the structure of the Canadian economy over the 1950–79 period. In particular, the paper focusses on the growth of service industries relative to goods-producing industries during this period. The performance of these industries is assessed in terms of output and employment and the reasons for the rapid growth of employment in the service sector are examined. The paper also examines the producitivity performance of the goods and service sectors and assesses the implication of low productivity growth in service industries on the overall productivity performance of the economy.     

The arithmetic of growth: Methods of calculation

This is a tutorial on the relations between population data and the rates of growth that are calculated from the data. For the calculation of rates of growth, discrete and continuous compounding will be compared so that the reader can see the reasons for using the mathematics of continuous compounding, which is the mathematics of exponential growth. Some properties of exponential growth are developed. Semi-logarithmic graphs will be discussed as a device for representing the size of growing populations and for analyzing the nature of the growth. Illustrative examples will be worked out in order to emphasize applications and utility.     

Measuring housing quality in the absence of a monetized real estate market

Measuring housing quality or value or both has been a weak component of demographic and development research in less developed countries that lack an active real estate (housing) market. We describe a new method based on a standardized subjective rating process. It is designed to be used in settings that do not have an active, monetized housing market. The method is applied in an ongoing longitudinal study in north-east Thailand and could be straightforwardly used in many other settings. We develop a conceptual model of the process whereby households come to reside in high-quality or low-quality housing units. We use this theoretical model in conjunction with longitudinal data to show that the new method of measuring housing quality behaves as theoretically expected, thus providing evidence of face validity.     

Impact of population changes on education cost

This paper has two principal aims: (1) to analyze and measure how the demographic variables—mortality, fertility, and im migration — affect the cost of education; (2) to evaluate what possibilities developing countries, such as those of Latin America, have for a rapid educational improvement. The paper relates demographic and educational variables of three different populations: Sweden, 1840–1965; the United States, 1850–1960; and Latin America, 1930–2000. Three educational variables are also considered: (a) school attendance rates by sex and age; (b) distribution of students of same age by grade; and (c) cost of student by grade. Demographic changes in countries such as Sweden and the United States were favorable for the development of education. For the future, unless an increase of fertility occurs, mortality and fertility changes will not have a significant effect on the cost of education in these countries. In current less developed countries the demographic changes during the past were less favorable to educational development. A future reduction of fertility will significantly help them to achieve a higher educational level.     

Time cost,relative income and fertility in Canada

A regression model which combines both the time cost and relative income hypotheses is estimated using Canadian data. The results indicate that the influence of relative income is greater on completed fertility and the effect of time cost is greater on timing of births. Some policy implications are derived.I would like to thank Michael Rohatynsky for helping me in collecting data, John Ermisch and three anonymous referees for their insightful and constructive comments.     

The social effect of population growth in the periurban region: The case of Adelaide

The forces driving periurban population growth and change vary, resulting in different scales of periurban development, and local differences will undoubtedly modify the social effect of population growth in the periurban zone. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of recent population growth on the social structure of periurban communities. Drawing on results from surveys of migration to three study areas in the periurban region of Adelaide (South Australia), the paper examines the perceptions of recent migrants as distinct from the established residents, focusing on three key aspects associated with population growth: social integration, satisfaction and identification with the local area and local commitment.